NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027900010044-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 44
• Publication Date: July 26, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National 1 noel l igence
Bulletin
Top Secret
July 26, 1975
N? 662
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 26, 1975
CONTENTS
TURKEY: Operations at common defense
installations suspended 1
ISRAEL: Civilian reservists
reportedly being demobilized 2
PORTUGAL: Appointment of triumvirate may
indicate Gonsalves survived ouster attempts 3
USSR: Grain crop estimate 5
WEST GERMANY: Export of
nuclear technology . 7
PERU: US mining
firm expropriated 8
CAMBODIA: Low-level meeting
with Thai officials 10
FOR THE RECORD 12
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National Intelligence Bulletin ~utv 26, 1975
The Turkish government yesterday officially informed the US that operations
at all common defense installations will be suspended as of today; the only
exception is NATO-related activity at the Incirlik airbase.
The Turks had already gotten considerable political mileage out of their
decision by interrupting a cabinet meeting to make a public announcement.
The note said that Ankara no longer regards its defense cooperation agreement
with the US as valid and that Turkey consequently has suspended the primary
mission and activities at Diyarbakir, Karamursel, Sinop, Betbasi, and non-NATO
activities at Incirlik. These installations and' comfnunicatian links will be placed
under the ?'full control and custody" of the Turkish army.
Foreign Minister eaglayangii told Ambassador Macomber it would be Monday
or Tuesday before Turkish officers actually take control. Turkey's note also said
that imports of materiel, equipment, arms, and ammunition for the installations
would not be authorized.
Neither the note nor the government's announcement clarified what was meant
by "full control and custody" or by "suspension of activities." Negotiations on the
facilities have been scheduled to begin next week.
The US facilities may become a partisan political issue between Prime Minister
Demirel and the opposition. Turkish politicians all have an eye on the senatorial
election this fall.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 26, 1975
The Israelis reportedly are demobilizing the civilian reservists who had been
recalled to duty earlier this week.
Israeli defense authorities told the US defense attache in Tel Aviv yesterday
that the reservists were being released in the wake of Egypt's announcement that it
would extend the UN mandate in Sinai for another three months. The Israelis
emphasized, however, that their military forces are-still on alert.
Tel Aviv asserts that there are now some 15,000 to 20,000 Egyptian troops as
well as some 41 tanks on the east bank of the canal. The disengagement agreement
permits only 7,000 men and 30 tanks in that area. The Israelis claim that the
buildup has occurred over the past five months but has been greatest since July 15.
The Israelis say they intend to protest to the UN command the number of
tanks but not the extra troops because of the difficulty in supporting their claim.
The Israelis add that the have detected no E tian violations on the west bank of
the canal.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 26, 1975
Portugal's Armed Forces General Assembly last night appointed a ruling
triumvirate of President Costa Gomes, Prime Minister Goncalves, and security chief
Otelo de Carvalho. Its decision apparently means that the Communist-supported
Goncalves, for the time being at least, has survived the moderates' attempts to oust
him from power.
Emphasizing that a strong political leadership is essential at this time, the
Assembly:
--concentrated "political-military power" in the triumvirate;
--relegated the former ruling Revolutionary Council to advisory status;
--reaffirmed a law promulgated earlier this year empowering the Assembly to
name the members of the Revolutionary Council.
The Assembly gave no indication how its resolution is to be implemented, and
it is equally unclear whether the Revolutionary Council would have any say in the
formation of the new cabinet, which, according to earlier reports,-will be formed by
Goncalves and announced next week. Key moderate leaders of the Council-who
oppose Goncalves-were absent from the Assembly session, and it was rumored in
Lisbon that they had resigned.
If Goncalves has indeed retained his power and influence as a member of the
new ruling troika and as head of the government, the reaction among those opposing
the country's drift to the left is likely to be strong and result in continued attempts
to take their case into the streets. The Socialists and Popular Democrats have
announced demonstrations for this evening, presumably to protest the military's
decision. In an apparent warning to the Socialist Party and to demonstrators who
have attacked Communists throughout the country, the Assembly advocated firm
action against those who "create a climate of popular agitation" and "hinder the
construction of socialism."
Labor Minister Costa Martins-reportedly a confidant and political ally of
Goncalves-told US embassy officials on Thursday that continued opposition to the
policies of the Armed Forces Movement by the Socialists and Popular Democrats
would probably result in the cancellation of municipal and parliamentary elections
promised for later this year.
A moderate note was struck, however, by Costa Gomes in his opening address
to the Assembly, when he appealed for a slowdown in the revolution and warned
against antagonizing the West. The President said the military no longer had the
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National Intelligence Bulletin
su port of all the Portu uese eople.
July 26, 1975
Continuing concern over the Azores question was also taken up by the
Assembly. Its communique said that reports on the Azores were heard and that
recent measures adopted to solve the islands' problems were discussed.
The Azores were reported calm on Friday after several Portuguese sailors were
beaten by an angry mob the previous night. In the most authoritative statement
made in recent days by any Portuguese leader on the Azores, Costa Martins told the
US labor attache that while the Portuguese people may be passive, the Portuguese
government would do everything in its power to defeat any move toward Azarean
independence. He emphasized that the islands are entirely different from the African
colonies, since the Azores are o ulated b Portu uese and are an into ral art of
Portugal
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 26, 1975
Continuation of a severe drought in most of the USSR's spring grain land has
caused us to reduce our estimates of this year's crop from 200 million to 185 million
tons.
The drought has been more widespread than in 1972, and, as a result, the
spring grain harvest will probably be lower. An expected record harvest of winter
grains, however, should ensure a total crop above the 1972 level of 168 million tons,
which led to imports of 31 million tons. So far this year, the Soviets have been
prompted to buy 14.5 million tons of grain.
If the drought continues, the prospects for the harvest of spring grains that
have not yet matured, such as corn, will worsen. Problems exist for other
crops-particularly hay and other forage crops-in the drought-stricken area. A
serious shortfall in fodder production would increase Soviet demand for grain.
The grain crop this year will be well under the normal requirement of about
210 million tons. Although Moscow has purchased large quantities of foreign grain
recently, it will not necessarily try to fill the entire gap between these requirements
and- production with imports. The Soviets are likely to dip to some extent into their
grain reserves. Livestock could be slaughtered to curb grain demand, but the high
priority of General Secretary Brezhnev's meat program makes this option
unattractive.
Of the 14.5 million tons of grain recently purchased by the USSR, 9.8 million
tons are contracted from US companies and will be filled largely from the US crop.
The other contracts are with Canada, Australia, and France. Moscow may soon
withdraw from the market to assess the evolution of both its own crop and world
supplies. A new round of Soviet buying is likely later.
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Nati?nal Intelligence Bulletin
July 26, 1975
Bonn is assuming a dominant position as a European exporter of nuclear
technology.
Following last month's $4-billion to $8-billion agreement with Brazil to provide
facilities and technology for a complete nuclear fuel cycle, a West German
delegation was to arrive in Pakistan this month to complete the sale of a heavy water
plant. Also under consideration is a recent South Korean proposal for German
participation in the construction of a nuclear power plant and the conclusion of a
German-Korean agreement for scientific and technical assistance.
Other West German ventures abroad include the earlier sale rid construction of
a natural uranium -fueled power reactor for Argentina-the first in South America.
Also pending is the sale of two large, pressurized-water power reactors to Iran, and
the Germans are holding negotiations with the Soviets for the construction of a
similar reactor in northwestern USSR. Libya and India have contracted with a West
German firm for the construction of a heavy water plant.
In moving to capitalize on a rapidly expanding world market for nuclear
technology and facilities, Bonn hopes to increase its share of high-technology
products exported while courting some countries as potential uranium suppliers. The
requirement for an assured su I of nuclear fuel was recently underscored in
parliamentary debat
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National Intelligence Bulletin
.July 26, 1975
The military government's announcement Thursday night expropriating the
US-owned Marcona Mining Company is apparently timed to coincide with Peru's
independence day celebrations on Monday. The US company was accused of faiPing
to fulfill its contractual obligations and of being a "predatory" multinational
company. It is not certain whether any compensation will be paid.
The takeover, under extensive negotiation with-the company for many months,
is in line with the military's blueprint for taking control of all basic industries.
In pushing through the expropriation decree early this week, President 'Jelasco
apparently went against the recommendations of many government economic
experts; more radical generals had pushed for a rapid takeover with no
compensation. Velasco may have felt a need to use the takeover as tangible evidence
that the leftist-nationalist revolution continues apace.
The move against Marcona is likely to damage Peru's investment climate at a
time when the country is facing other serious economic problems. Politically, the
move indicates that Velasco still wields significant power in the government, despite
the fact that Prime Minister Morales Bermudez has recently assumed a much greater
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 26, 1975
Cambodian communist and Thai officials recently held aloes-level meeting near
the Thai border town of Aranyaprathet.
According to a press version of the meeting, the Cambodians took the initiative
in arranging the contact. The two sides are said to have discussed resumption of
trade and diplomatic relations, opening of the border, and future meetings between
Cambodian and Thai representatives, possibly in Phnom Penh, Battambang, or
Poipet, near the Cambodian-Thai border.
Although border contacts involving trade have taken place in the past, the
recent meeting is the first instance of discussion of broader issues affecting the two
countries. The meeting was attended by a Thai district official, who was in contact
with his Ministry of Interior, and on the Cambodian side by a former Phnom Penh
teacher who told a reporter that he was a trade representative appointed by the
"military committee" in Phnom Penh.
A Thai Foreign Ministry official, in commenting on the meeting to a US
embassy official in Bangkok, cautioned that the press account had exaggerated the
significance of the contact. He said, however, that the Foreign Ministry would study
the results of the meeting carefully.
If the meeting, as claimed, came at the initiative of Phnom Penh rather than
from local officials, it could lead to the development of a more formal and higher
level dialogue. The chances of an early resumption of diplomatic relations between
Cambodia and Thailand are probably nil. The Cambodian communists are almost
certainly not prepared to move in this direction until the new governmental
structure is decided upon and relations with major allies are formalized.
Nevertheless, Phnom Penh may be trying to relax the situation along the border with
Thailand and expand trade in order to alleviate its supply shortages, particularly in
the northwest.
Apparently trying to counter the recently revived rumor that Cambodian
Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Khieu Samphan is dead, the Cambodian
representative told a journalist at the meeting that Khieu Samphan is alive and
working in the defense department in Phnom Penh. The Cambodian media last
mentioned Khieu Samphan routinely on July 1. The representative also hinted that
further details on Cambodian communist leaders would soon be made public.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 26, 1975
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Nati?nal Intelligence bulletin
July 26, 1975
ANGOLA: On Thursday night, the National Front for the Liberation of
Angola apparently pushed the Por~ular Movement for the Liberation of Angola out
of the town of Caxito, 40 miles northeast of Luanda. The Front regards Caxito-an
important junction along a major supply route into Luanda-as a key staging area for
forcing its way back into the capital. The Front is consolidating its position in the
Caxito area and apparently has not yet made a firm decision on future military
actions.
united behind their present leaders.
ITALY: Christian Democrats yesterday bought more time to settle factional
differences by selecting the 63-year-old president of the party's national council,
Benigno Zaccagnini, to succeed Fanfani as party leader. Zaccagnini will, in effect, be
a caretaker until the party's congress this fall. The council apparently turned to him
when none of the real contenders, such as parliamentary leader Piccoli or Budget
Minister Andreotti, could muster a majority. Zaccagnini is a member of Prime
Minister Moro's faction, which means that 'the party's left has gained at least some
advantage in the maneuvering to influence decisions on the party's new leadership
and policies. By not coming to a final decision row, the Christian Democrats are at a
disadvantage with respect to the Socialists and Communists, both of whom are
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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