NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027700010048-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 20, 2006
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: May 29, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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jY k
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 29, 1975
CONTENTS
LAOS: Americans reoccupy US compound . . . . . . . . . . . 1
LEBANON: Karami designated Prime
Minister . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
SYRIA: Movements of troops away from
Golan front continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
USSR: Republics election campaign
launched . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
ITALY: Campaign under way for
elections in June . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
ARGENTINA: Economy minister to resign . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
FOR THE RECORD: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
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NORTH
VIETNAM
Predominantly Communist-ceniroIIed area.
February 1973 ceasefire
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 29, 1975
American officials yesterday reentered the main USAID and defense attache
compound in Vientiane without serious incident. The compound had been sealed off
by communist-inspired demonstrators and Pathet Lao security forces for the past
week. The two US Marine guards and one American civilian employee barricaded
inside the compound were released unharmed and in apparent good health.
The reoccupation followed the signing of a pact with Pathet Lao officials and
leftist student leaders in which the US agreed to abolish USAID, withdraw all of its
American personnel, and turn over by June 30 most of its equipment and facilities
to the Lao government.
The evacuation of all remaining American personnel from the US residential
housing complex on the northern outskirts of Vientiane was completed yesterday.
Overall, some 182 official and 111 nonofficial American personnel are still in the
Lao capital.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
LEBANON
May 29, 1975
President Franjiyah made a significant concession yesterday when he
designated Rashid Karami to form a new government. The two are long-time foes,
and Karami is a powerful Sunni Muslim leader with an independent political base.
Karami probably demanded and was granted greater authority to choose his own
cabinet and make government policy than his weak predecessors were allowed.
Karami has long maintained that Muslims are underrepresented in Lebanon's
government and should have more political power. Last March, he called for
fundamental changes in the country's 30-year-old National Covenant, which
provides for the distribution of political posts on the basis of a Christian majority in
the country's population, but this majority no longer exists.
Syria and the Palestinians will welcome Karami's appointment. He is an Arab
nationalist who in 1969 gave up an effort to form a government to protest an
attempt by former president Hilou to use force to control the fedayeen. He later
became prime minister after the rights and responsibilities of Palestinians in Lebanon
were spelled out in the Cairo Accord of November 1969.
The Phalangists, who have been engaged for a week in armed clashes with
Lebanese leftists and radical fedayeen, have long opposed Karami. They nevertheless
appear willing to give him a chance; Phalangist leader Jumayyil said yesterday that
his party "seeks stability and supports a strong prime minister to ensure this."
Karami is an ally of Raymond Edde, head of the National Bloc, a large,
predominantly Christian political party. Edde recently has been critical of Franjiyah,
and joined with Muslim leaders in demanding the resignation of the short-lived
military cabinet last weekend. Edde, with Karami's support, is likely to seek the
presidency when Franjiyah's term expires next year.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
SYRIA
Syria is continuing to move large armored units to the northern and eastern
portions of the country.
The US defense attache in Damascus reports that on Sunday more than 100
tanks and transporters were moving north in the vicinity of Hamah. On the same
day, a convoy of trucks carrying support equipment was seen north of Hamah. The
day before, a foreign diplomat observed another northward-bound convoy of about
100 vehicles. Although most were trucks loaded with armed troops, tanks and
armored cars were also identified.
The units involved in these movements are most likely subordinate to the 3rd
Armored Division, which is normally located northeast of Damascus in the Al
Qutayfah area. The troops are probably being sent either to the Tabaqah Dam or
Dayr az Zawr area in eastern Syria in connection with the dispute with Iraq over
water from the Euphrates River. The 1st Armored Division was moved to the
vicinity of Palmyra two weeks ago.
If the units that are moving to the north and east are from the 3rd Division,
Syrian'reserves for the Golan front have been significantly reduced. In the event of
an Israeli attack, the Republican Guard located west of Damascus would be the only
reserve unit immediately available to counter a penetration of the defense. After 12
hours-under optimum conditions-elements of the 1st Armored Division could be
May 29, 1975
moved to the front.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 29, 1975
Politburo member Kunayev and candidate-member Romanov opened the
leadership's campaigns for reelection to the parliaments of the republics with reports
this week to their -constituencies in Kazakhstan and Leningrad. Other Kremlin
leaders, speaking roughly in ascending order of their rank, are making similar
presentations over the next three weeks. General Secretary Brezhnev is expected to
make the final speech shortly before the elections on June 15.
The speeches provide an opportunity for the leaders to air their individual
views-albeit with caution-and to gain support for them.
The top leaders are customarily nominated for more than one seat in the
parliament of a republic, and the number garnered sheds light on the individual's
political standing.
As he did in last year's nominations for the USSR Supreme Soviet, Brezhnev
clearly leads the field, and the other rankings show no significant change.
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ITALY
The campaign for Italy's nationwide regional and local elections on June 15 is
in full swing; debate centers on national political themes.
The law-and-order issue continues to generate the most heat. One of
parliament's last acts before recessing last week was to pass a law intended to
combat rising crime and political violence. None of the parties was satisfied with the
final version; the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats wanted a tougher
approach, while the Socialists and Communists maintained that the law infringes on
civil liberties by giving the police too much leeway in fields such as preventive
detention. As a result, the law-and-order debate is likely to intensify as the campaign
gathers steam, especially if the violence continues.
Growing differences between the Socialists and the Christian Democrats on
other issues caused the Socialists to split with the center-left majority in the last few
parliamentary votes. They refused, for example, to go along with the majority on
policy toward state industries. If the Socialists do well in the elections, they are
expected to demand more influence in the management of the state industries,
heretofore the almost exclusive preserve of the Christian Democrats and the major
source of their patronage.
The elections are also focusing attention on the question of broader
Communist participation in national policy-making. One of the main points in
Christian Democratic leader Fanfani's generally conservative platform is a firm "no"
to collaboration with the Communists at any level of government. Communist chief
Berlinguer is campaigning on the theme that Italy's problems can be solved only by
ending the "discrimination" against his party, Italy's second largest.
The polemic between Fanfani and the Communists was enlivened this week by
a Time magazine interview with Fanfani in which he asserted that collaboration with
the Communists would threaten international detente and spell the "end of free
Italy."
Berlinguer was probably particularly irritated that the interview was aimed at
an American audience, since he has been trying to alla the concerns of US officials
about a possible cabinet role for the Communists.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 29, 1975
Presidential adviser Lopez Rega is on the verge of winning another victory by
forcing the resignation of Economy Minister Gomez Morales.
The impending departure of this highly competent economist signals not only
the growing power of Lopez Rega but also the administration's attempts to retain a
populist image, even at the expense of sound economic planning. Moreover, without
an internationally respected minister in this position, Argentina's efforts to secure
foreign loans will be hampered.
Gomez Morales has consistently objected to Lopez Rega's firm backing for
politically expedient expansive social welfare spending and salary hikes to satisfy
Peronist labor. With Gomez Morales out of the way, Lopez Rega will be able to
exert a major influence on Argentina's economic policy. A protege with limited
experience will apparently be named to replace Gomez Morales.
According to a number of sources, Gomez Morales submitted his resignation to
President Peron some weeks ago because of the government's obvious lack of
enthusiasm for his austerity plans. She reportedly accepted the resignation, but
asked the minister to stay on until the conclusion of negotiations with labor on wage
guidelines, probably by June 1.
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May 29, 1975
COLOMBIA: President Lopez has dismissed army commander General Alvaro
Valencia in an apparent effort to end unrest within the military. Much of the officer
corps divided along policy lines into pro-Lopez and anti-Lopez groups following the
President's disciplining of five generals and several colonels three weeks ago. The
officers who were disciplined had taken strong exception to Lopez' increasing use of
the army as a police force to control the many demonstrations that have plagued the
country since late last year. By firing Valencia, Lopez has removed the de facto
leader of the anti-Lopez group. The President's problems are likely to continue,
however, as Valencia can now speak his mind from outside the restraints of military
discipline. Moreover, the new army commander, Major General Luis Carlos Camacho
Leyva, former army chief of staff, has also been identified with the anti-Lopez
group.
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