NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027700010044-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 5, 2006
• Sequence Number: 44
• Publication Date: May 27, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
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State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
May 27, 1975
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 27, 1975
CONTENTS
LAOS: Possibility of violence to
Americans remains high . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
LEBANON: Three-day-old military government
forced to resign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
ISRAEL-LEBANON: Border clash is most
serious since 1972 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
PORTUGAL: Armed Forces Movement to set up
its own "alliance with the people." . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
CHINA: Telecommunications experts to
exchange visits with US manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
SURINAM: Communal violence adjourns
independence talks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
URUGUAY: President Bordaberry compromises
with army generals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Tension remains high in Vientiane.
May 27, 1975
Harassment of Americans, clearly condoned and inspired by the
communist-dominated coalition government, is becoming more common and
widespread. According to the US charge, people in the street shout "go home" in
English and Lao to American passersby; old friends shun contact with US officials;
and Lao employees of the US mission, as well as domestic servants working for
American families, are under strong pressure to quit their jobs or face reprisals.
In an even more ominous development, the Trans Air Protective Service
(TAPS)-a civilian company that supplies 937 security guards for US mission
property and personnel-was taken over by Pathet Lao troops on May 23, leaving
the American community in Vientiane without any form of protection. With
assistance and direction from Pathet Lao agitators, some 200 TAPS personnel and
disgruntled Lao employees of USAID staged several demonstrations in front of the
US embassy on Saturday over salary grievances. The protest was defused when the
American management of TAPS agreed to meet the security guard? demands for
severance pay, which bordered on extortion.
Although the most immediate result of the withdrawal of TAPS protection for
Americans is the danger posed by local housebreakers, whose activities are definitely
on the upswing, communist-controlled Lao National Radio announced over the
weekend that Pathet Lao troops will conduct an "inspection" of all American homes
and installations on May 27. The broadcasts also threatened that Americans who do
not leave Laos "immediately" may be "punished".
No Americans have been harmed thus far, but in the climate that the coalition
has permitted to develop, the possibility of incidents involving violence to US
personnel remains high.
Negotiations between US officials, coalition government representatives, and
Pathet Lao - inspired students and other demonstrators continued over the weekend
in an effort to bring a halt to the week-long occupation of USAID facilities in and
around Vientiane. An agreement was reached in principle between the US charge
and acting USAID director, on the one hand, and Lao Prime Minister Souvanna
Phouma, his Pathet Lao deputy Phoumi Vongvichit, and communist Economy
Minister Soth Phetrasy on the other, wherein the US agreed to demonstrator
demands that it:
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National Intelligence Bulletin
--dissolve USAID in the provinces as well as in Vientiane;
May 27, 1975
--withdraw all American employees of USAID from Laos as soon as possible;
--turn over all USAID equipment and facilities to the Lao government, in
accordance with the provisions of past bilateral assistance agreements, by no
later than the end of the current fiscal year (June 30, 1975).
US officials also agreed to pay the back salaries of all Lao USAID employees as
soon as demonstrators permit Americans access to the USAID compound where
payrolls are kept. As part of the agreement, the protesters are to disperse from the
compound, and the two US Marine guards and one American civilian employee
holed up inside the compound's headquarters buildings are to be released.
The agreement, however, has not yet been accepted by the demonstrators.
Indeed, an estimated 30 hard-core protesters and some 15 Pathet Lao troops still
occupy the main USAID and defense attache compound in the heart of Vientiane.
Pathet Lao members of the capital's joint military security force are also continuing
to occupy several other USAID facilities near the city and to "guard" the entrance
to a large American residential housing complex in the capital's northern suburbs.
The Pathet Lao are permitting Americans to leave the housing complex, but
harassment both there and at Wattay airport continues. Personal effects and baggage
are being subjected to repeated "security" checks, private vehicles are being
searched, and those vehicles without diplomatic or official plates are being
impounded.
Nevertheless, nearly 600 American dependents and other nonessential
personnel were successfully evacuated by air to Thailand over the weekend.
Approximately 280 American officials still remain in Vientiane.
The Pathet Lao are intensifying efforts to consolidate control over the coalition
government and bureaucracy. At last week's cabinet meeting, they succeeded in
formally abolishing the National Documentation Center-Prime Minister Souvanna's
personal intelligence service-and the so-called "Vientiane Side Coordinating
Committee"-the non-communists' primary political action organization.
In addition, the Pathet Lao have reportedly succeeded in removing nearly 90
percent of all senior and middle-echelon, Western-trained, non-communist
bureaucrats from key positions in the various coalition ministries.
Communist-inspired demonstrators in Vientiane yesterday demanded the ouster of
the non-communist director generals of agriculture and public works. A similar
purge of officers from the non-communist Royal Lao Army has been under way for
several weeks.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Lebanese Prime Minister Rifai and his predominantly military cabinet resigned
yesterday. They were forced out by intense criticism from Lebanese leftist, Muslim,
and even some Christian leaders and signs of strong disapproval from Syria and the
Palestinians.
The military cabinet will serve in a caretaker capacity until a new government is
formed. Although this process often takes several weeks, President Franjiyah this
time will be forced to act more quickly by the knowledge that his critics will
interpret any delay as a stalling tactic and as justification for more civil disturbances.
Franjiyah probably sees some hope that the experiment with a military cabinet,
however humiliating to him, will at least have frightened the country's leading
Muslim politicians into being more cooperative than usual in helping assemble a
government willing to deal more forcefully with the country's deteriorating security
situation.
Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam played an active role in the negotiations in
Beirut that led to Rifai's resignation. On his departure for Damascus yesterday,
Khaddam expressed optimism over the results of his talks with Lebanese and
fedayeen leaders and confidence in President Franjiyah. This suggests that he
received some assurance that Franjiyah will appoint a prime minister acceptable to
Syria.
Syria has the propensity and ability to intervene in Lebanon's domestic
politics, with the result that Beirut is always sensitive to signs of Damascus' disfavor
or its providing aid to the fedayeen.
The most likely choice for prime minister is Rashid Karami, a leading
opposition member of parliament who served as prime minister on several occasions
between 1955 and 1970. He would be acceptable to Syria and to the Palestinians,
although not to the right-wing Phalanges Party.
May 27, 1975
Karami probably has no firm notion of how to deal with the present crisis, but
would be likely to move quickly to convene a Lebanese-Palestinian summit to
hammer out still another agreement on the rights and responsibilities of the
Palestinians in Lebanon. Existing agreements-notably those of 1969 and
1973-have been widely disregarded, always with the effect of expanding the scope
of fedayeen activities.
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May 27, 1975
Scattered fighting involving the Phalangists, radical fedayeen, and
troublemakers backed by radical Arab states continued in Beirut yesterday. The
clashes Sunday night were the heaviest and the most widespread of the current crisis,
despite the announcement a short time earlier that all sides had endorsed still
another cease-fire. They US embassy estimates that a total of 80 persons have been
killed in the past week.
ISRAEL-LEBANON
The sharp clash of Israeli and Lebanese military forces on Sunday occurred
when an Isareli patrol crossed the border in search of fedayeen and was fired on by
Lebanese army units. After several hours, the local UN contingent arranged a
cease-fire and the Israeli force was allowed to withdraw. Tel Aviv has denied
Lebanese claims that the Israelis again crossed the border on Monday.
Lebanese forces have fired on Israeli patrols inside Lebanon in the past, but
those incidents have been minor. This incident, in which seven Lebanese and two
Israelis were killed, was the most serious since September 1972, when 17 Lebanese
troops were killed in a clash with Israeli forces.
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May 27, 1975
Early this morning the 240-man General Assembly declared that the Armed
Forces Movement would bypass political party leaders and establish its own alliance
with organizations of the people. The communique, issued at the end of a divisive
15-hour emergency meeting to discuss Portugal's political future, emphasized that
the political parties would not be abolished-a move that had been widely predicted
by the Lisbon press.
The announcement did not give any details about the "alliance with the
people," but previous disclosures mentioned Cuban-style armed civilian-militia and
revolutionary defense committees linked directly to the military.
The Armed Forces Movement called on its Revolutionary Council to solve
"firmly and rapidly" the conflict between the Socialist and Communist parties and
made clear its unhappiness with the Socialists' protest boycott of the coalition
cabinet. The assembly's criticism of the Socialists may strengthen the Communists'
hand in the current dispute between the two parties.
The General Assembly took the unusual step of reporting a unanimous vote of
confidence in Prime Minister Goncalves. This overt demonstration of support for
Goncalves will buttress his position as head of the radical faction of the Armed
Forces Movement-the dominant faction since the abortive coup of March 11. There
had been rumors that the assembly would attempt to oust moderate leaders from
the Movement, but apparently no such action was taken.
While the General Assembly met, some 2,000 left-wing demonstrators in Lisbon
protested against the CIA and NATO and, specifically, against the opening of a
NATO naval exercise off the Portuguese coast later this week. The Portuguese
Communist Party also announced its intention to organize a mass demonstration of
support for the Armed Forces Movement tomorrow.
Foreign ministers of the Common Market, who met in Dublin yesterday,
resolved to launch a major attempt to head off dangers of an economic breakdown
in Portugal-provided Portugal stays democratic. Irish Foreign Minister Garret
Fitzgerald will visit Lisbon on June 1 and 2 for political and economic talks with
Portuguese leaders.
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May 27, 1975
Peking will send a delegation to the US in June to visit the offices and
laboratories of several major telecommunications equipment manufacturers. The
group's major interest is in maintenance and operation of high-capacity
telecommunications systems, including microwave radio relay, coaxial cable, and
communications satellite systems.
This is the latest in a series of moves China has made to strengthen ties with US
firms engaged in high-technology research and production. Last month, Peking
invited a US manufacturing group to visit China in late July. The US delegation is
primarily composed of representatives from major US telecommunications
firms-many of whom will probably have met the Chinese group in June. The US
delegation will hold seminars and generally try to portray the state of commercial
communications applications in the US.
China has only recently moved into modern wideband telecommunications.
Peking probably wants to obtain as much technology from the two visits as possible
to make their newly deployed wideband networks into a viable telecommunications
system. In addition to technology, this would probably require large-scale imports of
telecommunications equipment.
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May 27, 1975
Arson and violence marred last week's round of independence negotiations in
Paramaribo between the Netherlands and Surinam. Internally self-governing since
1950, Surinam is scheduled to attain independence in November.
The political parties representing the Hindustani and Javanese minorities
planned demonstrations and a 24-hour shutdown of their businesses to coincide with
the arrival of Dutch Prime Minister den Uyl in Paramaribo. The two groups saw this
as their last chance to gain Dutch support for constitutional changes they believe
will guarantee their rights after independence. They also hoped to pressure the
Creole government of Minister President Arron into giving them greater participation
in the independence process.
Young extremists among the Hindustanis apparently decided on more
spectacular measures to demonstrate their grievances. On May. 14 an attempt was
made to burn down the parliament building. In the days that followed, other fires
were set, and there were numerous incidents of rock throwing, beatings, and
vandalism.
On May 19 Arron met with. leaders of the opposition parties in an effort to
restore order. He agreed to hold further talks on guaranteeing minority rights, while
the opposition leaders called off the demonstrations they had planned. Hotheads on
both sides refused the compromise, however, and lawlessness continued, forcing the
adjournment of the independence talks on May 21.
Arron and opposition leaders have appealed publicly for unity and an end to
incidents. The arson and lawlessness have probably shocked the various Surinamese
communities sufficiently to ensure at least a short period of peace. Nevertheless,
without significant concessions by the Arron government, and some effort at trust
by the Hindustanis and Javanese, the potential exists for an increase in internecine
warfare.
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May 27, 1975
President Bordaberry has negotiated a compromise with army generals, but the
underlying economic dispute that provoked a confrontation last week is still
unresolved.
The agreement reportedly requires Bordaberry to get rid of his current minister
of agriculture soon in return for military acquiescence in the recent dismissal of the
head of the national beef institute.
For the past year and a half, European markets have banned beef imports to
protect local producers, and Uruguay has been unable to find alternative buyers for
its major commodity. The consequent plunge in foreign exchange earnings has
seriously handicapped the nation's efforts to meet energy needs that depend heavily
on foreign petroleum purchases. These current problems, added to prolonged
economic stagnation, have made agricultural policy a subject of major controversy
between those military leaders who want more government regulation, and ranchers,
with whom Bordaberry sides, who oppose market restrictions on beef sales.
The inability of the military to speak with one voice complicates the
decision-making process, since generals occupy subcabinet positions and major
administrative posts. The shuffle of personalities temporarily protects the national
image, but the failure to reach a consensus on fundamental economic
issues-particularly the beef problem-means that the economy will continue to be
the focus of national debate and possibly future crises.
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