NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027700010022-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 20, 2006
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: May 13, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
May 13, 1975
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 13, 1975
CONTENTS
LAOS: Acting Defense Minister Boupha lashes out at US
and its "stooges" in Laos. (Page 1)
ASEAN: Annual meeting to focus on implications of de-
velopments in Indochina. (Page 5)
NEW ZEALAND: Licensed imports to be cut about 15 per-
cent. Page 9)
NATO: Eurogroup decides to initiate dialogue with US.
(Page 12)
ANNEX: Continuing Problems Facing Greek Government
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 13, 1975
Prime Minister Souvanna Phouma is still trying to
calm tensions in Laos, but the Pathet Lao appear intent
on keeping the pot boiling.
Speaking over the national radio network yesterday,
Souvanna described the present situation as "not serious"
and called on his countrymen to remain calm. He reassured
his audience that the government has not changed its role
or policies and that it will continue to apply firmly.
the principles of the Laos peace accords of February 1973.
The newly appointed acting defense minister, General
Khammouane Boupha--technically a "patriotic neutralist"
but in reality squarely in the Pathet Lao camp--took a
belligerent stand in the course of several radio addresses
he made yesterday. Using inflammatory language, he
lashed out at the US and its conservative Laotian
"stooges." He argued that Laos' present difficulties
had been caused by "American imperialists and extreme
right-wingers," who have set out to destroy the 1973 peace
accords, the coalition government, and the economy.
Boupha's former boss, ousted. rightist Sisouk na Cham-
passak, repeatedly and successfully frustrated all efforts
by Boupha to wield influence in the Defense Ministry.
This may account for some of Boupha's present feistiness,
now that he is number one.
The US charge" has made a strong protest to Pathet
Lao Deputy Prime Minister Phoumi Vongvichit over Boupha's
statements. He told Phoumi that such a statement in the
present: overcharged atmosphere was explosive. He said
it was one thing for a newspaper to criticize Americans
but a very different matter when such public criticism
came from a "responsible" cabinet minister.
Phoumi, as might be expected, made light of the in-
cident and promised to rein in Boupha as well as the
Pathet Lao Minister of Information Souk Vongsak. Phoumi
reaffirmed the Pathet Lao's determination to maintain
the coalition government and its present policy, and to
have "good relations" with all "friendly" countries.
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Meanwhile, Boupha has moved swiftly to assert Pathet
Lao control over all non-communist forces in Laos. In
an official communique broadcast nationally yesterday,
he forbade the movement of troops, aircraft, armor, or
artillery without Defense Ministry authorization and
warned of "drastic" punitive action against any units or
individual "traitors" who did not comply. The communique
also demanded that all non-communist forces declare their
loyalty to the coalition government.
Royal Lao Army commander Bounpone, one of the few
senior rightist officers still in Laos, has pledged his
support and cooperation to Boupha and has urged all
non-communist forces to follow suit. Although he has
been permitted to stay on as nominal army chief, Bounpone
realizes he now heads a military force that is being ef-
fectively dismantled. Consequently, he is seriously con-
sidering joining his fellow rightists in exile.
Thai Prime Minister Khukrit Pramot, at a press con-
ference yesterday, said that Vang Pao is in Thailand. We
have no official confirmation of this,
Boupha insists that Vang Pao is a potential threat
to the coalition government and that he and Meo tribesmen
in northern Laos must be "destroyed." Souvanna has
ordered Boupha to stop further harassment and not to at-
tack Long Tieng, but the Prime Minister's orders no
longer carry much authority.
In any case, Souvanna and Boupha have ordered Vang
Pao to come to Vientiane for ""talks"--a move that could
be suicidal for the Meo chieftain unless his safety is
assured. An ICC delegation headed by one of-Souvanna's
sons is scheduled to arrive in Long Tieng today in an
effort to persuade Vang Pao to appear in Vientiane.
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Civil unrest inspired by the Pathet Lao continues
in Pakse and is threatening to spread to Savannakhet
and other urban areas in southern Laos controlled by
non-communists.
Laos.
a number of rightist provincial governors. The demon-
strators are demanding the ouster of these and other
rightist officials, resolution of the economic problems
plaguing Pakse, and "neutralization" of all of southern
At last report, several thousand demonstrators--
calling themselves the "Pakse Liberation Movement"--had
blocked all commerce into and out of Pakse and had seized
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 13, 1975
ASEAN
The three-day annual meeting of the foreign ministers
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),
which opens in Kuala Lumpur today, will focus on the im-
plications of recent communist successes in Indochina.
All of the members--Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indo-
nesia, and the Philippines--feel an increased threat but
in greater or lesser degrees.
Their divergent interests make it difficult for the
five nations to reach a consensus, but they did agree
earlier--at Bangkok's instigation--on a joint statement
of recognition of the new regime in Phnom Penh. Malaysia,
to the annoyance of Thailand and perhaps other members,
subsequently went ahead on its own to recognize the Pro-
visional Revolutionary Government in Saigon. Kuala Lum-
pur's rationale was that it alone had kept sufficient
distance from the Vietnam conflict to be accepted
immediately by the new government.
Malaysia will seek to capitalize on its partners'
concern over Indochina by again pushing its long-standing
proposal for creation of a Southeast Asian neutral zone.
A preliminary session of senior officials was held over
the weekend to draft a blueprint for declaring a neutral
zone free of foreign bases. This topic has been discussed
at previous meetings, but thus far the members have en-
dorsed only a vague statement on its desirability as a
long-term goal.
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Indonesia and the Philippines are showing interest
in an ASEAN summit meeting this summer. Such a proposal
is likely to be resisted by the other three members, prob-
ably on the grounds that a great deal of spadework must
be done before such a get-together would be productive.
Other important questions likely to be discussed are a
proposal for settling disputes among members and the
structure of a permanent secretariat.
Since its founding in 1967 as an economic and social
organization, ASEAN has gradually evolved as a forum for
discussion of common political and security problems.
Indonesia, in particular, has actively encouraged this
development and would like to see the ASEAN forum consider
regional defense problems. The ASEAN states will con-
tinue to oppose any formal security arrangement, but the
changing situation in Indochina will make them more recep-
tive to Jakarta's desires to expand the range of issues
discussed.
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Wellington has decided to cut licensed imports about
15 percent, starting July 1. Autos, which will be held
to 50 percent below the fiscal 1975 level, will be most
affected.
Only 30 percent of the goods New Zealand imports re-
quire a license, but Wellington will consider licenses
for other items if necessary. Japan, the UK, and Austra-
lia will be hit hardest by the restrictions.
New Zealand's imports were up 68 percent last year
becguse of a large increase in purchases of US- and Japa-
nese-manufactured goods and higher oil prices. Imports
of assembled autos doubled in volume. Exports dropped
6 percent, shifting New Zealand's current account from
a surplus in 1973 to a deficit of $1.1 billion last year,
equivalent to 10 percent of GNP.
To finance the deficit, Wellington was forced to
draw down foreign exchange reserves by 30 percent, or
$340 million, and to borrow heavily abroad. Wellington
will seek further foreign borrowing this year.
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 13, 1975
The defense ministers of nine European members of
NATO agreed last week to seek talks with the US to get
a better balance between US- and European-produced wea-
pons systems in the programs for military procurement
and standardization of equipment.
The ministers also agreed to try once again to per-
suade France to cooperate with the Eurogroup, the informal
caucus of most of the European members of NATO. France
is not a member.
UK Defense Minister Mason suggested that the Euro-
group might propose that the West Europeans purchase $5
billion of US equipment, in return for an agreement by
the US to purchase $2.5 billion of materiel produced in
Europe. The target figures will not be mentioned in the
letter Mason intends to write to Secretary Schlesinger
to signal the European initiative. The Europeans hope
to discuss their offer when NATO's defense ministers meet
later this month.
The Europeans believe that they must sell equipment
to the US in order to maintain a stable and technologi-
cally advanced European arms industry. They also believe
that NATO's efforts to standardize equipment will be
greatly aided if the US buys European.
The defense ministers also agreed that the Eurogroup
should invite France to participate in the procurement
and standardization projects being carried out under the
group's auspices. According to the defense minister of
Luxembourg, French cooperation will be sought by promis-
ing that the Eurogroup states will purchase French mili-
tary equipment if France joins one of the Eurogroup's
affiliated organizations.
Previous Eurogroup efforts to obtain France's cooper-
ation have failed. It would be a major policy change
for President Giscard to alter France's attitude. At a
minimum, Paris would be likely to require the Eurogroup
states to make firm large-scale commitments to buy French
military equipment.
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 13, 1975
Continuing Problems Facing Greek Government
Attempts by Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis to so-
lidify his political base and establish political struc-
tures that will survive him will continue to be inhib-
ited by both external and internal problems. Failure to
make headway on the Cyprus and Aegean issues, deteriorat-
ing armed forces morale, and a worsening economic situa-
tion are all factors that could bring the military back
into politics. Karamanlis has yet to resolve the con-
flict between popular support for an extensive purge of
the armed forces and resistance to such an action within
the military, who fear that national security as well as
their careers are being jeopardized for the sake of in-
ternal politics.
Relations with Turkey
Prospects for improved relations with Turkey hinge
on the outcome of the disputes over Cyprus and the Aegean.
Turkish inflexibility on these issues has impeded the
Prime Minister's efforts to reach a solution acceptable
to the Greek people. Should Karamanlis adopt too weak a
position or appear to capitulate to the Turks on either
of these key questions, a military coup could result.
Conversely, Greece's military inferiority vis-a-vis
the Turks makes it difficult for the government to take
a strong aggressive stance, at least for the near term,
in dealing with its historical adversary. The Greek posi-
tion is improving, however, as a result of arms acquisi-
tions and the cutoff of US military aid to Turkey.
Al
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A Turkish vic-
tory in any confron-
tation would gener-
ate serious politi-
cal and economic
turmoil within
Greece and would in
all probability
cause the government
to fall.
The Military's Role
The purge of
former junta sup-
porters remains one
of the most divisive
issues in Greece.
While Karamanlis
May 13, 1975
.' Chios Sa os~
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orginally may have intended that only a few junta members
be brought to trial, public opinion and parliamentary debate
dictated that he thoroughly purge the military of all ves-
tiges of the junta, and he was therefore forced to widen the
purge. This action has severely lowered morale within the
officer corps and weakened the capability of the armed forces
by removing experienced leaders from key military positions.
Even though the trials have been suspended and there is
a possibility that many of the indicted officers will never
be tried, the issue will remain volatile.
Although the threat of war with Turkey will inhibit
serious military coup planning against the government,
problems remain.
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May 13, 1975
A continuation of the stalemate over Cyprus and the
Aegean, civil actions against the military, and civil
disorders caused by leftist agitators will continue to
cause discontent within the military. Although Karamanlis
remains the dominant figure in Greece, the euphoria that
followed his return is ebbing. Should he be unable to
maintain his current prestige and popular backing, the
military may try to replace him with a more acceptable
politician.
If Karamanlis should leave or be replaced, the chances
for a more direct military role in government would in-
crease significantly. A junta-type government, however,
is not envisioned; the military would most likely refer
to rule behind the scenes.
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