CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027500010008-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 2008
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: March 5, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Ilk
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
N? 638
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 5, 1975
CONTENTS
PLO-EGYPT: PLO moves to repair damage to relations with
Egypt. (Page 1)
USSR: Brezhnev becoming more active. (Page 3)
ETHIOPIA: Land reform program certain to generate wide-
spread unrest. (Page 4)
CAMBODIA: Military situation. (Page 7)
SPAIN: Cabinet reshuffled. (Page 9)
EC-IEA: International Energy Agency to meet Thursday.
Page 10)
FRANCE - IVORY COAST: Joint military exercise to be
held next week. (Page 12)
TURKEY: Irmak tries again to form a government. (Page 13)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 20)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 5, 1975
PLO leaders, thrown off balance by President Sadat's
uncharacteristically strong reaction to their policy
statement of February 26 that condemned step-by-step
negotiations, are moving cautiously to repair the damage
to Palestinian-Egyptian relations. The Palestinians
continue to be leery of another agreement between Egypt
and Israel, however, and are continuing quiet efforts
to marshal Arab support for their position.
A PLO spokesman said this week that Faruq Qaddumi,
head of the PLO political department, will lead a Pales-
tinian delegation to Cairo in the "near future" to meet
with Egyptian Foreign Minister Fahmi. The group can be
expected to minimize the importance of the offending
PLO statement and argue that the Palestinians were con-
demning the US rather than Egypt.
The Palestinian radio station in Cairo has been
directed to explain that. the PLO was not attacking Egypt,
and to refrain from criticizing the policies of Egypt
or the other Arab states. On Monday, a Palestinian
radiobroadcast from Cairo claimed that both sides had
agreed to "contain the crisis, for the sake of Arab unity."
A number of second-level Palestinian leaders have spoken
candidly in public of the need for a return to normal
relations with Egypt.
President Sadat, who will be with Secretary Kis-
singer in Aswan when the Palestinians are expected to
arrive, will probably not meet personally with the dele-
gation. Sadat has given no sign that he has backed down
from his demands that the PLO either withdraw its policy
statement or send the entire PLO executive committee to
Egypt to meet with him to iron out Palestinian-Egyptian
differences. The Qaddumi visit, however, will probably
lead to a reduction of tensions and clear the way for a
subsequent meeting between Sadat and PLO Chairman Yasir
Arafat.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 5, 1975
So far, Arafat has avoided public comment on the
contretemps with Egypt. He presumably believes that
Palestinian dignity requires him to avoid a public
apology to Egypt. He also believes he must protect his
own position by denying his more radical colleagues the
opportunity to brand him a collaborator in Sadat's
dealings with the US. In addition, he may believe that
the current hue and cry puts pressure on Sadat to keep
Palestinian interests in mind as he moves toward another
round of negotiations.
Arafat is suspicious of the step-by-step tactics
favored by Sadat, but he still hopes the Egyptians can
come up with something concrete for the Palestinians.
Perhaps more important, he lacks any alternative strat-
egy for making gains through negotiations.
Should the Egyptian efforts ultimately produce
nothing for the Palestinians and they be excluded from
the negotiating process, Arafat would probably speak
out forcefully against any agreement with Israel and
endorse an increase in fedayeen terrorism. The US em-
bassy in Beirut considers that Arafat already has this
option in mind. In the embassy's view, the Palestinians'
recent criticism of Egypt and of the step-by-step nego-
tiating approach is designed in large part to pave the
way for Arafat's possible adoption soon of a more mil-
itant line.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 5, 1975
General Secretary Brezhnev's activities are begin-
ning to pick up, after his long hospitalization and con-
valescence. On March -3 he met with Czechoslovak party
boss Husak, attended a lunch in Husak's honor, and saw
him off later at the airport. Husak, who was in Moscow
for a one-day visit, is the first East European leader
to confer with Brezhnev since Bulgarian party chief
Zhivkov's visit to Moscow in mid-October.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
ETHIOPIA
March 5, 1975
The land reform program announced yesterday by the
ruling military council is almost certain to arouse wide-
spread rural unrest.
The basic provisions provide for the nationalization
of all agricultural land and the transfer of the right
to use the land to tenants who are currently cultivating
it, up to a maximum of about 25 acres each. These land-
holders cannot sell or transfer any land, but their heirs
are guaranteed the right to use it when the current hold-
ers die.
The government will. pay compensation to the former
landowner for any permanent improvements they made, but
not for the land itself.
All contracts between landlords and tenants, includ-
ing rental and debt agreements, were abolished. The use
of hired labor on farms was banned. Large estates are
to be state or communally operated but will temporarily
retain their present management.
Powerful landowners, especially those already in
arms against the military, can be expected to oppose
the edict. In the northern provinces they will probably
be joined by small farmers and peasants unwilling to ac-
cept the disruption of an ancient land-tenure system
based mainly on communal. ownership of tribal lands.
The reform program will probably be better received
among landless peasants in southern Ethiopia, where the
land-tenure system has been characterized by absentee
landlordism and the ownership of large estates by privi-
leged aristocrats. In this area, many peasants may try
to seize land arbitrarily or kill landowners who resist
the council's proclamation.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 5, 1975
In many cases, differences in tribal origins be-
tween landlords and peasants aggravate traditional ani-
mosities. Civil disturbances, caused by a resurgence of
tribal hostilities and landlord-tenant tensions, have
been a serious problem in the south for some time.
Apparently looking for ways to improve administra-
tive effectiveness, the council yesterday announced a
major reshuffle in the civilian cabinet. The changes
also are designed to remove several ministers appointed
to serve under former prime minister Endalkatchew, who
was among the 59 persons executed last November. Mikael
Imru, a former prime minister who has been serving as
information minister, was appointed political adviser to
the chairman of the council.
In Eritrea, government forces and rebel guerrillas
have engaged in numerous firefights during the past three
days.
The
US embassy received information on March 3 that both army
and insurgent forces incurred heavy losses during fight-
ing on the road between Asmara and Keren.
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Cambodia: Lower Mekong
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 5, 1975
In a press interview last week, Prince Sihanouk
claimed that Hanoi. had agreed to increase its deliveries
in response to the US airlift to Phnom Penh. Sihanouk
asserted that the agreement: had been reached while he
was in Hanoi in mid-February.
Government forces southwest of Phnom Penh have
broken the Communist encirclement of a position near
Route 4 and are preparing to resume their operation to
retake the town of Tuol Leap.
Northeast of Phnom. Penh, government units continue
to give ground in the face of heavy Communist pressure.
Two positions on the west bank of the Mekong have fallen
so far this week, and the Communists have begun to mortar
the navy headquarters from newly won territory on the
east bank of the river.
Farther south on the Mekong, the Communists are
keeping steady pressure on the Neak Luong naval base,
which remains cut off from the nearby town of Banam.
A resupply convoy reached Neak Luong from Phnom Penh
yesterday, but the navy lost two landing craft along
the lower reaches of the river, and a patrol boat was
sunk near Neak Luong.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 5, 1975
Spanish Prime Minister Arias has taken advantage of
the resignation of his labor minister last week to re-
shuffle his cabinet. Yesterday he named five new minis-
ters in an effort to remove cabinet obstruction to his
liberalization program and to deal more effectively with
pressing labor and economic problems.
By replacing National Movement Minister Jose Utrera
Molina, secretary general of the official state party,
Arias removes a principal opponent of his plan to break
the Movement's monopoly by permitting the formation of
political associations. This change may encourage appli-
cations from moderate political groups, which to date
have been reluctant to apply because they believed they
would not obtain the necessary authorization from the
Movement.
The naming of Fernando Suarez Gonzalez, a supporter
of liberalization, to be labor minister indicates that
Arias has not given up on getting a limited right-to-
strike law to ease labor unrest. The previous labor
minister resigned to protest the inclusion of an anti-
strike provision in the proposed labor law.
In agreeing to the cabinet changes, General Franco,
who has always been reluctant to see new faces in the
cabinet, especially during periods of unrest, was prob-
ably influenced by the need to give Arias a boost by re-
moving obvious obstructionists. Nevertheless, so long
as Franco remains active, Arias will feel pressure to
take a hard line in dealing with unrest.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 5, 1975
EC-IEA
The principal issue facing the governing board of
the International Energy Agency when it meets in Paris
tomorrow is the US proposal for a minimum price for oil.
The intended effect of this would be to encourage the
consuming nations to reduce their dependence on imported
oil by developing alternate sources of energy.
The efforts of the participants to reach agreement
may be complicated by the inability of the EC to agree
on a floor price of its own. The eight EC states that
are members of the international agency--France is the
holdout--would be reluctant to accept the obligations
of a floor price for oil if France were not similarly
bound and, as a result, might profit from deflated oil
prices in the future.
The EC members of the international agency will
also keep in mind that President Giscard on Sunday sent
formal invitations to the EC states and nine others, in-
cluding the US, to participate in a preparatory meeting
on April 7 for a conference of oil producers and con-
sumers. The EC states realize that progress in developing
alternate sources of energy is a major requisite for US
acceptance of a producer-consumer conference.
If the US were to reject Giscard's invitation as
premature, the eight EC states would be placed in the
uncomfortable position of having to side with the US
or France. The eight faced a similar problem at the
Washington energy conference a year ago and split with
France, but since that time they have tried to strengthen
EC ties and draw France into the work of the interna-
tional agency.
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National Intelligence
Bulletin March 5, 1975
Many of the members of the international agency
accept the principle of a floor price for oil, but
there is no consensus on the level at which it should
be set. Most of the EC members, as well as Japan,
argue that a high price--near the present $10-11 cost
of oil--would favor the U;3 and Canada. These states
feel that a price between $5 and $6 a barrel would be
more appropriate.
Even if the international agency reaches a satis-
factory agreement on price levels, it will still have
to decide on the modalities of participation in the
producer-consumer meeting and how to meet the demand
of some of the oil-producing states to expand the scope
of the conference to include all raw materials.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 5, 1975
The US defense attache in Abidjan reports that the
French will hold a joint military exercise with Ivory
Coast forces next week. The exercise calls for French
forces to assist the Ivoiriens in suppressing a coup
attempt.
President Houphouet-Boigny, now 70 and France's
staunchest friend in Africa,, has been in power since
his country became independent in 1960. During that
time he has seen most of his popularly elected colleagues
in west Africa deposed by military coups. Since the
overthrow early last year of Niger's civilian president,
an old friend, Houphouet-Boigny has taken several meas-
ures to discourage plotting and disaffection in the
Ivoirien military and has sought assurances that Paris
would intervene on his behalf in the event of an attempt
against him.
France, which periodically holds exercises with its
former African colonies, last conducted one with the
Ivory Coast in 1967. Such exercises represent one means
by which Paris maintains close contact with those nations.
French participation in the exercise will include
two intervention companies from the 1st Airborne Brigade
headquartered at Toulouse. The aircraft carrier Clemen-
ceau, returning from duty in the Indian Ocean, will
provide tactical air support. Elements of the French
4th Marine Infantry Battalion stationed near Abidjan
will also take part, along with elements of the
Ivoirien army and gendarmerie.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 5, 1975
In the latest attempt to form a government, prime
minister - designate Sadi Irmak appears to be facing the
same problems that led to his failure to obtain a vote
of confidence in his initial effort last November.
Irmak's announced intention again was to form a
"national coalition" that would consist primarily of
Turkey's two largest parties--former prime minister
Ecevit's Republican People's Party and Suleyman Demirel's
Justice Party. His hopes appear to have been dashed,
however, when Demirel announced yesterday that his party
would not participate.
Irmak will probably continue his negotiations with
other political parties in an attempt to obtain enough
support to win a vote of confidence. His most promising
prospect appears to be a coalition that would include
Ecevit's party and the conservative Democratic Party,
plus a few independents.
Ecevit's initial reaction to Irmak's redesignation
last weekend was favorable. Willingness to allow his
party to participate in a coalition, however, would prob-
ably be conditional on Irmak's commitment to early elec-
tions. This could prove troublesome for the Democrats.
Earlier efforts to link Ecevit's party and the Democrats
in a coalition have foundered on Ecevit's demand for
elections no later than this summer and on some serious
personal differences that have threatened to split the
Democratic Party.
Nonetheless, the Democratic Party reacted favorably
to Irmak's initial announcement and may find it easier
to join a coalition with the Republican Peoples Party if
Ecevit himself is not participating in the government.
If Irmak could count on the support of all those who have
shown interest, he would have five more votes in the Na-
tional Assembly than the 226 needed for a majority. Cru-
cial to this formula would be the Democrats' ability to
prevent a split in their party.
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Such a split would give Demirel's four-party "nation-
alist coalition" a bare majority. It is in the hope that
his rightist coalition might still come to power that
Demirel reiected Irmak's offer. 25X1
Should Irmak fail in this attempt to break the po-
litical impasse--now in its sixth month--he could con-
tinue in his role as caretaker for the time being. It
is not clear what new move :Koruturk might make in that
event, but his prestige would clearly suffer in the wake
of another failure. One newspaper in Ankara has suggested
that if a new government is not formed by March 6, Koru-
turk may resort to his ultimate weapon--resignation.
National Intelligence Bulletin, March 5, 1975
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 5, 1975
Greece: in reaction to the abortive coup last week,
the Gre3e government yesterday announced a major shake-
up of the army. Twenty generals were retired, while
17 high-ranking officers who had been dismissed from the
army during the seven years of military rule were re-
called to active duty. Three other officers who report-
edly warned the government of the coup plot have been
promoted to high posts, according to press reports. A
government announcement indicated that more changes will
be made today.
Colombia-Cuba: Colombia's Foreign Minister Lievano
has announced that his country will resume diplomatic
relations with Cuba tomorrow. Ties with Cuba had been
broken in 1961. The move caps a process that began with
the signing of an anti-hijacking agreement last summer.
Colombia becomes the 12th Western Hemisphere nation
have diplomatic ties with the Castro government.
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