CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027400010052-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 52
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
25X1 February 24, 1975
N2 638
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 24, 1975
CONTENTS
SPAIN: Military may disagree over its role in maintain-
ing-order. (Page 1)
ETHIOPIA: Fighting in Eritrea Province was light over
the weekend. (Page 2)
WESTERN EUROPE - CSCE: Allies concerned about CSCE finale
on Soviet terms. (Page 6)
UNITED KINGDOM - EC: British cabinet still faces diffi-
cult decisions on the EC referendum. (Page 7)
CANADA: Trudeau leaves Thursday for second round of
talks with West European leaders. (Page 9)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Government commanders conduct preemptive
operations. (Page 11)
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National Intelligence Bulletin February 24, 1975
SPAIN
The arrest of two army officers in Barcelona last
week may indicate there is disagreement in the military
.over the role it should play in maintaining order.
Various accounts are circulating about what prompted
the arrest of Captain Julve and Major Busquets, who has
a reputation as a critic of the regime. The most plau-
sible version is that Busquets and others, while attend-
ing a planning session for the 25th anniversary reunion
of their military academy class, exerted pressure on the
captain general of the Barcelona military district to
refrain from using the army to maintain public order.
They reportedly coupled this with a call for an organized
protest against the general's disciplining of a fellow
officer who disobeyed a direct order to divulge the names
of subway strikers in Barcelona.
High-ranking Spanish military officers have insisted
to US embassy officials that the affair is an isolated
incident, not evidence of a dissident movement. Even
these sources admit, however, that the army's delay in
announcing the arrests and its refusal to give more than
the barest details of the event will heighten specula-
tion that a subversive plot is involved. A ranking of-
ficer has conceded that the affair was mishandled and.
that a simple reprimand of Busquets would have sufficed.
The fact that the government felt it necessary to arrest
the officers makes clear its determination to head off
any dissidence in the military.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 24, 1975
Fighting in Eritrea Province between government
forces and insurgents was light over the weekend, follow-
ing heavy fighting on Friday. Air force planes yester-
day bombed suspected rebel positions on the outskirts of
Asmara.
In Beirut, Osman Saleh Sabbe, the leader of one of
the two main factions of the rebel movement, rejected
the reported plans of a group of Eritrean notables to
try to arrange negotiations between the rebels and the
council. The council itself may not have yet approved
the efforts of the notables, who live in Addis Ababa
and may therefore be out of touch with Eritrean nation-
alist sentiment.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
WESTERN EUROPE - CSCE
February 24, 1975
A British official who accompanied Prime Minister
Wilson to Moscow has told the NATO Council that the
Soviets are showing no signs of abandoning their uncom-
promising approach toward the European security confer-
ence. Subsequent discussion among allied representatives
revealed growing concern about the effect on West Euro-
pean public opinion if CSCE is ended on Soviet terms.
The British official is convinced the Soviets intend
to trade on impatience in the West about the security
conference in order to bring it to a speedy conclusion.
He thinks the Soviets feel they can now concentrate on
timing because they are sure the conference will end at
the summit level. The official said the Soviets gave no
indication that they might be willing to make concessions
in order to conclude the conference. Instead, the
Soviets took a hard line on all outstanding issues.
Commenting on the view that the Soviets regard the
security conference as the end of a chapter consolidating
their hold over Eastern Europe, a Belgian official re-
ferred to the problems West European leaders will face
upon the conclusion of the security conference.. He
maintained that as long as CSCE continues, the West en-
joys a certain psychological advantage since the public
can still hope for a change in the status quo in Europe.
Once the allied heads of state "all stand up and pro-
claim the great achievement and high significance of
conference results," including the recognition of the
status quo in Europe, however, the allies will have to
"do a lot to recover lost ground."
The Belgians are not alone in feeling that the
Soviets will reap great propaganda advantage from a
summit concluding the security conference and that
conference results seeming to meet Soviet desires will
be difficult to explain to the West European public.
Nevertheless, the West Europeans increasingly feel the
need to end the conference and will have difficulty
maintaining a strong stand against the Soviets. Although
there have recently been some signs of greater flexibil-
ity on the part of Soviets in Geneva, they continue to
show little inclination to compromise on basic issues.
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National Intelligence Bulletin February 24, 1975
The British government plans to issue a white paper
by the end of this month on how the EC referendum will
be conducted. Another paper will be issued in late March
outlining the results of the renegotiation of membership
terms. Legislation setting out the framework of the ref-
erendum should be introduced into Parliament by the end
of March, following several weeks of parliamentary and
public debate.
The main questions the cabinet is still considering
on the referendum are:
--the wording of the question to be posed to the
voters;
--the advisability of setting up an information
program sponsored by the government;
--the possibility of establishing rules for the
pre-referendum campaign;
--the method of tallying the referendum's results.
An official close to the cabinet claims there is a
consensus that the question should be as simple as pos-
sible. Those opposed to EC membership would prefer that
the question contain no reference to the renegotiations
with the EC, while those in favor of membership want the
question to indicate that the government believes the
terms have been successfully: renegotiated. The anti-
marketeers are opposed to a government information pro-
gram, while the pro-marketeers want one.
One of the most difficult problems facing the gov-
ernment concerns the method of tallying the votes. The
majority prefers a national tally, but the government may
be forced to agree to a regional breakdown in order to
-7-
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 24, 1975
secure the support of the members of Parliament from
Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland for the referendum
legislation. Voters in these areas generally are against
EC membership, and their legislators do not want regional
preferences submerged in a general tally.
The cabinet is also wrestling with the extent to
which the referendum will be binding on Parliament.
Prime Minister Wilson has already said the results will
be binding on the government and has commented that Par-
liament will feel obliged to go along with the wishes of
the people. Because a majority of the members of Parlia-
ment favor continued membership, that body would face a
dilemma if the voter turnout were small and the result a
narrow margin of victory for opponents of continued mem-
bership.
The British, meanwhile, are hopeful that the renego-
tiations will be completed in time for the EC summit in
Dublin early next month. Several points on the EC re-
gional development fund--a sensitive issue for the Labor
Party--have yet to be resolved, and the formula for de-
termining a member's contribution to the EC budget has
not yet been entirely agreed upon. Recent EC decisions
affecting agriculture, which the government recently de-
clared to be satisfactory, have been criticized by the
influential British National Farmers' Union,
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National Intelligence Bulletin February 24, 1975
CANADA
Prime Minister Trudeau departs on Thursday for the
second round of talks with West European leaders in a
continuation of his effort to lessen Canadian dependence
on the US.
The trip will include stops in The Hague, Bonn,
Rome, London, and Dublin. Trudeau visited Paris and
Brussels last December, but held off visiting other
West European capitals until he first normalized rela-
tions with the French. Ties between Ottawa and Paris
had been cool since 1967, when former president De Gaulle
advocated independence for Quebec.
The Prime Minister views the coming discussions as
a general review of problems facing the Western-nations, and he does not intend to seek specific agreements. He
will, however, continue to push for formal institutional
ties between Canada and the EC, although the Nine are
reluctant to begin negotiations at this time.
Ottawa is still embarrassed by the Indian.nuclear
test last spring, which utilized material from a Canadian-
supplied reactor, and Trudeau will be particularly inter-
ested in advocating stronger nuclear safeguards.... He
is likely to urge strongly that the EURATOM states which
signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty complete ratification
without delay. The Italians--most notable holdouts on
ratification_ will be especially pressed by Trudeau.to
accept treaty provisions without qualification.
For their part, the European leaders will-be con-
cerned over the effect of the current Canadian defense
review on Ottawa's NATO ties. Trudeau's alliance part-
ners undoubtedly will urge Ottawa to maintain its current
military commitment in Europe. While the. British and
Dutch arguments will be weakened by their own decisions
to reduce defense spending, they can point .out that only
Iceland and Luxembourg spend less per capita than Canada
on their NATO commitments.
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Pr~uoc
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Gulf of
Thailand
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SOUTH VIETNAM
0 25 50 75
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National Intelligence Bulletin February 24, 1975
SOUTH VIETNAM
South Vietnamese government commanders, aware of
reported Communist plans for widespread attacks, have
been conducting preemptive operations in many parts of
the country.
In Western Military Region 3, upwards of two Commu-
nist divisions have been reported moving toward Tay Ninh
operations along Route 13, near Lai Khe, and along Route
1, east of Xuan Loc.
sapper operations in the Saigon environs and ground
In the central highlands, sporadic fighting continues
in northern Binh Dinh Province. Elsewhere in the region,
ground action has been light.
Activity in the northern provinces has remained at
a moderate level for the past few days. Most of the
action is presently centered in Quang Nam and QuangNgai
provinces, where South Vietnamese regular territorial
forces are carrying out a series of operations designed
to foil Communist offensive plans and to expand govern-
ment-controlled areas in southern Military Region 1.
In the delta, scattered harassing attacks continued
this past week. Units of two Communist divisions are
still operating in Kien Tuong and Dinh Tuong provinces,
but aggressive government action has thus far prevented
them from launching major attacks against population
centers and key military ositions.
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