CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027300010058-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 58
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
NIL
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review
completed
DIA review(s)
completed.
Top Secret
January 22, 1975
N2 638
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 22, 1975
CONTENTS
LEBANON-ISRAEL-FEDAYEEN: Military action remains at
low level. (Page 1)
GREECE: Student demonstrations to be held in Athens
and Thessaloniki today. (Page 2)
ISRAEL: The rate of emigration arouses concern. (Page 3)
MEXICO: Echeverria told US businessmen that Mexico wel-
comes foreign investment. (Page 4)
CANADA: Defense budget decisions announced. (Page 5)
PHILIPPINES: Referendum on martial law now scheduled
for February 27. (Page 10)
ANGOLA: Military provisions of the recent independence
accord call for a mixed military force. (Page 11)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 12)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
LEBANON- I S RAEL--FEDAYEEN
January 22, 1975
Lebanese, feda.yeen, and. Israeli military action in
southern Lebanon has remained at a, very low level since
late last week. Isolated incidents between the Lebanese
army and the more radical fedayeen organizations persist,
however, and have the potential to lead to wider fighting.
Spokesmen for the Palestine Liberation organization
have sought to protect that organization's recently im-
proved international image by condemning the skirmishes
with the Lebanese and the attack at Orly Airport Sunday.
A Beirut, newspaper has reported that PLO Chairman Yasir
Arafat met with Lebanese Prime Minister Sulh shortly
after the clashes in southern Lebanon in an effort to
minimize the damage to Lebanese-fedayeen relations.
The US embassy in Beirut has suggested that last
week's fedayeen-Israeli encounters may have been part bf
an effort by Arafat to elicit. financial aid from Saudi
King Faysal, who was visiting Damascus at the time.
Arafat, according to a Lebanese army officer, ordered
fedayeen units to harass Israeli patrols in order to
bring on a heavy 'response and present the fedayeen as
the sole, beleaguered defenders of southern Lebanon.
Although this certainly was not the only reason for
the upsurge in fighting, the Israeli shelling of southern
Lebanon last week was extremely heavy. Faysal reportedly
did give the PLO $8.5 million, although this amount was
probably already allocated as Saudi Arabia's share of the
Rabat Defense Fund.
Whatever the genesis of the recent hostilities, the
Lebanese government is attempting to reduce domestic
criticism by publicly calling for additional military
and financial support from the other Arabs. According
to press reports from Cairo, Beirut has called for a
meeting of the Arab League Defense Council in Cairo on
February 5 to consider how to strengthen Lebanon's de-
fenses against Israeli. attack.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 22, 1975
A mass rally of students and youth organized by
leftist groups will be held today in Athens. Student
demonstrations are also planned in Thessaloniki and on
Crete.
Although the avowed purpose of the demonstrations
is to protest certain policies of the Karamanlis' govern-
ment--insufficient "de=juntaization" and the new con-
stitution--they are likely to take on an anti-UK, anti-US
flavor, because feelings are still running high over the
UK's decision to evacuate Turkish Cypriot refugees from
the British base at Akrotiri. US officials have been
assured that adequate security measures will be taken to
protect American installations.
The demonstrators in Athens will march first to
Constitution Square and then pass by the UK and US em-
bassies. Leftist Andreas Papandreou has issued a state-
ment warning that "Britain, the Pentagon, and NATO will
reap the rage of both the Greek and the Greek Cypriot
people." The British feel that police efforts to protect
the British embassy during the demonstrations over the
weekend were insufficient. Demonstrations continued
yesterday at the British embassy, but a strong police
cordon prevented the students from attacking the embassy.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 22, 1975
ISRAEL
Israel's Central Bureau of statistics recently es-
timated that 15,000 to 20,000 Israelis emigrated last
year. This is roughly double the estimated average rate
of the last seven years. The highest previous totals,
about 11,000, occurred in 1966, when unemployment reached
10 percent, and in 1973.
Approximately 32,000 new immigrants arrived in Is-
rael last year, 46 percent fewer than in 1973. The drop
in new arrivals, coupled with increased emigration, re-
sulted in a net migrant growth of only 12,000 to 17,000.
This is well below what the government considers neces-
sary for the Jewish population to keep pace with the
growth in the number of Arabs in Israel. Net immigration
accounted for 39 percent of Jewish population growth in
Israel in the 12 months ending last August.
The bureau's estimate has aroused intense concern
in Israel. Even before the latest figures were announced,
Jewish Agency Chairman Pinhas Sapir warned that the emi-
gration problem is particularly serious because it in-
volves not only recent arrivals but also first, second,
and third generation Israelis. Sapir is directing a
major campaign to attract more Jewish immigrants, partic-
ularly from Western countries.
Citing the bureau's figures, one of Israel's leading
press commentators noted last week that Israelis are now
openly discussing emigration. He claimed that more young,
better educated Israelis are leaving. He attributed the
high emigration to anxieties about Israel's security as
well as to social and economic discontent. Another
bureau report indicates that Israel's consumer price in-
dex rose 56.2 percent last year, more than double the
1973 figure. Food prices alone jumped 82.6 percent.
Wage adjustments only partially affect these increases.
The US embassy in Tel Aviv comments that despite
difficulties in making reliable estimates on the number
of Jews permanently leaving, the magnitude of the
1974 estimate is likely further to erode public morale
and will be read as a setback to Israel's efforts
to attract more immigrants from the West and the USSR.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 22, 1975
President Echeverria, meeting on January 18 with
some 30 leading US businessmen, stressed the theme that
Mexico welcomes new foreign investment and provides
stable economic, political, and social conditions for
the investor,,;
In an effort to underscore the importance he attached
to the occasion, Echeverria included his secretaries of
foreign affairs, industry and commerce, and treasury in
the discussion. All of these officials depicted the
government's attitude toward investment as flexible and
constructive.
Echeverria defended his UN Charter of Economic
Rights and Duties of States. He admitted that the char-
ter is partial to poor nations, but he said that it
protects rich nations as well by giving an alternative
to communist-inspired "people's revolutions," which he
said offer false cures for economic and political problems.
The charter, passed overwhelmingly by the UN General As-
sembly in December, is a set of progressive principles
intended to correct what most developing nations see as
inequalities and injustices that obstruct their economic
relations with industrial nations.
Mexican business leaders who attended the meeting
were relieved to hear Echeverria's positive remarks on
the role private investment plays in Mexican development.
Echeverria's reassuring words will ease their concerns
over the administration's inclinations toward economic
nationalism.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 22, 1975
CANADA
Despite the optimistic tone of Defense Minister
Richardson's speech on January 17 announcing the long-
awaited defense budget decisions, the budget will do
little to improve the capabilities of the Canadian
armed forces.
Richardson said the fiscal year 1974-75 defense
budget would increase by $275 million to about $2.5 bil-
lion and the following year's budget would rise by an
additional $300 million. He also reiterated Canada's
commitment to the four basic defense missions of protect-
ing the state, participating in NATO, cooperating with
the US in North American air defense, and supporting UN
peacekeeping operations. Regarding the latter, however,
the Canadians plan to reduce their UN contingent on
Cyprus from 750 to 450 by June for reasons of economy.
The defense minister also advised his audience that
overall spending for capital improvement programs would
increase by about 30 percent over this year's level.
The additional funds will be used to acquire maritime
long-range patrol aircraft, C-130 aircraft, Blow Pipe
surface-to-air and Tow antitank missile systems, and
more modern communications.
Although Richardson emphasized that the changes
will strengthen the Canadian armed forces, the total
impact will be barely to maintain the status quo. Modern-
ization of the tank forces and naval combatants, both
major programs, have been given a low priority. Further-
more, the budget increase of almost 12 percent will
barely keep up with the current rate of inflation and
will not permit solution of the personnel shortfall prob-
lem presently plaguing the 80,000-man armed forces.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 22, 1975
President Marcos has announced a national referendum
for February 27 to evaluate martial law and to determine
the future form of local government.
Marcos has been promising a new referendum on martial
law since last August, but two previous dates were sub-
sequently canceled., He had originally planned to ask the
voters if they wanted him to establish an interim national
assembly as called for in the constitution ratified in
1973. He dropped this question, in the latest announce-
ment, apparently because he is not ready to consider even
a token legislative body and therefore does not want to
encourage speculation on the issue.
Voters, convening as members of village-level citi-
zens' assemblies, will be asked. if they approve of mar-
tial law and wish it continued. They will also be asked
whether they want the President to appoint local offi-
cials to replace the present ones, who were elected be-
fore martial law was declared and whose terms expire at
the end of 1975. Marcos has promised to allow free
public debate prior to the voting, but past practice
suggests that severe criticism of his regime will not
be tolerated and that voters will be expected to express
overwhelming approval of his actions.
The referendum is the latest in a series of well-
publicized events designed to improve Marcos' image
abroad and mask the authoritarian aspects of martial law.
His referendum has already come under public fire from
a group of liberal Catholic priests who are calling on
the people to boycott the vote because it is a "mockery
of democracy." The Catholic hierarchy has not supported
the proposed boycott, but, inasmuch as President Marcos
only recently patched up a serious public split with the
church fathers, he will have to treat the boycott group
carefully in order to prevent another church-state con-
frontation. Catholic priests have been an important
focal point for anti-Marcos opposition since the declara-
tion of martial law in September 1972.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 22, 1975
The military provisions of the recent accord looking
toward Angolan independence by next November call for a
delicate balance of troops that may be hard to maintain.
The agreement, completed on January 15, calls for
the phased buildup of a mixed military force under a
joint defense commission,with 8,000 troops from each of
the three liberation movements and a Portuguese contin-
gent of 24,000 men. The complicated arrangements for
achieving such a force are largely the result of differing
stages of training, the immediate availability of troops
among the liberation movement armies, and their overall
inferior strength to the Portuguese military in Angola.
At the start of 1975, the National Front for the
Liberation of Angola was the largest of the freedom
groups, with a force of some 15,000. The Popular Movement
for the Liberation of Angola under Agostinho Neto, num-
bered some 8,500 members, and a splinter group under
Daniel Chipenda totaled about 1,500 troops. The National
Union for the Total Independence of Angola, based in
eastern and southern Angola, had only about 1,200 trained
personnel.
The National Front appears to be in the most favor-
able short-term position to undertake any unilateral
activity. Over the longer term, the Popular Movement
will recruit additional forces, and its size is likely
to rival National Front forces. The Popular Movement is
widely accepted among the indigenous urban population
and could seek military gains to match its political
strength.
The independence agreement does not make provision
for troops who are not assigned to the mixed military
force. Neither does it specify the locations in or out
of Angola where forces not integrated into the army may
be maintained.
Peace over the next several months is likely to be
observed, but as independence grows near, one or more of
the liberation groups may attempt to improve its military
position, especially should the political situation seem
to jeopardize equal participation. In that event, civil
war could result.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 22, 1975
Pakistan: Wheat purchases negotiated by Pakistan
last week--100,000 tons from Australia and 150,000 tons
from Europe--raised the delivered and scheduled fiscal
1974-75 wheat imports to at least 1,225,000 tons, only
325,000 tons short of its announced import goal. Ar-
rangements to date for commercial and concessional US
wheat total 575,000 tons.
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