CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027300010030-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 30
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Deot. review
DIA review(s)
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N?_ 654
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National Intelligence Bulletin
January 6, 1975
CONTENTS
ARAB STATES: Conference in Cairo between foreign minis-
ters of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan with a PLO representa-
tive. (Page 1)
USSR-EGYPT: High-ranking Soviet official discounts
Brezhnev's health and frictions with Egypt as factors
in postponement of party boss' visit. (Page 3)
SOUTH VIETNAM: The military situation. (Page 7)
USSR-US: Moscow has yet to comment definitively on re-
cent US trade reform legislation. (Page 9)
ETHIOPIA: Ruling military council apparently trying
to find peaceful solution to insurgency in Eritrea.
(Page 11)
MEXICO: Cabinet member fired. (Page 13)
COSTA RICA: Large legislative delegation on good-will
visit to Cuba. (Page 14)
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 6, 1975
ARAB STATES
The foreign ministers of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan
and a representative of the Palestine Liberation Organi-
zation made only minor progress during two days of talks
in Cairo on Saturday. The four agreed to meet in Damas-
cus'next month, in a further attempt to iron out differ-
ences between Jordan and the PLO.
In Cairo, the Jordanians and Palestinians agreed in
principle to hold bilateral consultations and to refrain
from "any measures or statements that do not contribute
to the development of relations between Jordan and the
PLO." This represents a modest concession by the Jorda-
nians, who had refused to meet officially with the Pal-
estinians since 1970, when the fedayeen. were driven out
of Jordan.
The Palestinian news agency, however, yesterday
accused the Jordanians of having "dodged basic questions"
during the talks in Cairo. Amman may delay any bilateral
meeting with the PLO until the Palestinians cease their
propaganda attacks on King Husayn and indicate at least
some willingness to compromise with Jordan on political
issues.
The agreement to continue consultations among the
four parties was couched in terms of their responsibil-
ity to organize against the Israeli military threat.
The conference communique did not, however, indicate
that the Palestinians had sought to portray this threat
as sufficient justification for a renewed fedayeen pres-
ence on Jordanian territory. PLO delegates, who had
been expected to raise this question, apparently con-
sidered it unwise to jeopardize Jordan's limited conces-
sion on bilateral talks by making an issue of the Pales-
tinians' desire to'return their forces to Jordan.
The communique--and, perhaps, the conference it-
self--avoided any reference to Middle East peace negotia-
tions. This is in keeping with the wishes of President
Sadat, who in late December elicited from President Asad
a commitment to restrict the meeting to a discussion of
relations between Jordan and the PLO. Cairo had been
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apprehensive that Damascus would use the conference as
a forum to promote Syria?s preference for a Geneva peace
conference over the step-by-step approach favored by
Egypt.
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USSR-EGYPT
A high-ranking Soviet Foreign ministry official has
sought to discount the importance of both Brezhnev's
health and Soviet-Egyptian frictions as factors in the
postponement of the party boss' trip to the Middle East.
Despite his casual attitude toward the postponement,
both factors apparently played a role in Brezhnev's de-
cision, although their relative importance remains uncer-
tain,
The Soviet Foreign Ministry official. responsible
for Middle East affairs, M, D. Sytenko, in a conversa-
tion on January 3 with Ambassador St.oessel, expressed
annoyance with Western press speculation about the post-
ponement, saying it should not be considered unusual.
While he did not flatly deny that Brezhnev's health was
involved, he implicitly dismissed it, noting that Brezh-
nev had received an Egyptian delegation in late December.
Soviet officials in Cairo have expressed similar
irritation with Egyptian press reports on Brezhnev's
health. Despite their remonstrations, the Egyptians
have continued to print details on Brezhnev's condition,
even noting that Foreign Minister Fahmi and War Minister
Gamasy had to don white coats when they met with Brezhnev
in a hospital. Although Brezhnev has not made a public
appearance in over a week, his reception of the Egyptians
on December 29 suggests his illness was not critical.
In his discussion with Stoessel, Sytenko made an
effort to put a positive face on Soviet-Egyptian rela-
tions, He vaguely asserted that the talks with the
Egyptians had been positive, but he indicated that there
had been no discussion of a new date for Brezhnev's
visit.
Sytenko, however, stressed several times the im-
portance Moscow assigns to the Geneva conference and
suggested that a new Sinai disengagement agreement would
cause "others" to become suspicious. These are precisely
the issues on which Moscow and Cairo remain at odds.
Pravda yesterday offered a commentary criticizing "so-
called quiet diplomacy, which suggests that the Middle
East problem be solved stage by stage."
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Sytenko was reticent in discussing Soviet-Egyptian
military cooperation, merely implying that the Egyptians
had pressed Moscow for new, sophisticated weapons.
A senior Egyptian official last week told the US
that the Soviets had said they would deliver, within the
next three months, the weapons they promised the Egyp-
tians prior to the war in October 1973. He said these
weapons will include MIG-21 and MIG-23 fighters and
SU-20 fighter bombers; only the MIG-23 would be new
to the Egyptian inventory.
The Egyptian added that the Soviets had made new
arms agreements contingent on Egyptian acceptance of
the Geneva conference approach to peace negotiations.
If the Soviets follow through on their promise to make
good on the old contracts, however, Egyptian President
Sadat probably will gain some relief from pressures of
the Egyptian military and a breathing space in which to
continue to seek progress in peace negotiations through
the step-by-step approach sponsored by the US.
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 6, 1975
SOUTH VIETNAM
South Vietnamese forces remain in control of Phuoc
Binh, the capital of Phuoc Long Province, but heavy
fighting continues around the city.
South Vietnamese defenders in the town were rein-
forced Saturday by a 300-man Ranger unit, but the sit-
uation there is still serious. All artillery guns have
been destroyed by North Vietnamese fire from a high
point south of the city., and the only means of resupply
is by air.
In their attacks during the past four days, the
Communists have made heavy use of artillery and armor.
In addition, elements of the North Vietnamese 7th Divi-
sion appear to have entered the fight in support of
local Communist units. This is the first time the 7th
Division has been used in combat since the Communists
stepped up the fighting in early December.
Elsewhere in Military Region 3, North Vietnamese
troops are continuing to attack Hoai Duc district capi-
tal in northern Binh Tuy Province. A South Vietnamese
regiment has been sent into the area to reinforce the
local defenders and to secure strategic Route 20 in
Long Khanh Province. South Vietnamese commanders are
concerned about the possibility that the Communists
will be able to gain control over a corridor to the
seacoast in northern Military Region 3.
In Tay Ninh Province, a government communications
site atop Ba Den Mountain remains under siege, but the
facility is still being held by government regional
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National Intelligence Bulletin
the Bien Hoa airfield over the weekend caused minor
damage. The Communists will probably try to continue
firing rockets into Bien Hoa in hopes of closing the
airfield to government aircraft using it to support the
Phuoc Long area.
Elsewhere in the country, fighting is light to
moderate. In the delta, the number of incidents con-
tinues to drop from the record levels of early December,
but still remains well above "normal." In the northern
part of the country, both sides continue fighting around
Mo Tau Mountain, south of Hue, but heavy rains are ham-
pering major military operations.
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Communist rocket attacks against
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 6, 1975
USSR-US
Moscow has yet to take a definitive public stance
on;the US trade reform and Export-Import Bank legisla-
tion signed by President Ford last week.
The preliminary Soviet reaction expresses dissatis-
faction with the laws' "discriminatory reservations and
limitations" concerning Soviet-American trade. Soviet
accounts of the bill-signing ceremonies note, however,
that President Ford voiced his own objections to the
provisions at issue.
Soviet commentators have also reported that Secre-
tary Kissinger, in his interview in B'usine'ss Week, crit-
icized the limitations on credits to the Soviet Union
They point out that the interview, published in Pravda
on January 4, has the Secretary expressing the bed"
that these limitations will have an unfavorable influ-
ence on Soviet-American relations.
Pravda commentator Yury Zhukov, speaking on nation-
wide tsion.on January 4, suggested that the USSR
could take its business elsewhere if the US persisted
in limiting credits to the Soviet Union. He refrained
from saying that Moscow plans specific retaliation, but
said that the low credit ceiling will "strike like a
boomerang" against US interests. Avoiding the emigra-
tion issue, Zhukov concluded his commentary on a hopeful
note, stating that Soviet-American economic cooperation
will thrive, "no matter how the enemies of detente try
to hamper it."
Zhukov9s remarks suggest that the official Soviet
reaction, when it appears, may not be Wholly negative.
It may well be that the Soviets are counting on American
businessmen to insist that competitive financing arrange-
ments somehow be achieved, despite the restrictive pro
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National Intelligence Bulletin January 6, 1975
Ethiopia's ruling military council is apparently
trying to find a peaceful solution to the insurgency in
Eritrea Province. Yesterday, it announced substantial
concessions to Eritrean tribal and religious leaders,
who had presented a list of demands to government rep-
resentatives in Asmara last week.
The local leaders had demanded that the government
confine troops to barracks and stop all military opera-
tions in the province. In its announcement, the council
said it had directed its forces in Eritrea to relax
security measures and to exercise maximum restraint in
carrying out their duties.
The council also agreed to review the cases of all
Eritrean political prisoners, except those charged with
murder or serious criminal offenses, with a view toward
granting them amnesty or reducing their sentences. The
local leaders had asked for the release of all Eritrean
political prisoners.
The council said it would make "special arrange-
ments" for Eritrea with regard to a national program for
sending students into rural areas to undertake economic
development projects and to explain the political changes
since the revolution. The Eritreans had demanded that
their province be excluded from the program.
The broadcasting over Addis Ababa radio yesterday
of the council's reply met the Eritreans' demand that
the council publicize the meetings in Asmara last week.
Until yesterday, the controlled media in Addis Ababa had
not reported the meetings.
On Saturday, the council sent Information Minister
Mikael Imru to Asmara to convey the council's reply per-
sonally to the local leaders. The council, in its
statement, said the local leaders were authorized to
contact Eritrean insurgents and to convey to them the
need for a peaceful solution to the conflict.
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The council had agreed last week to hold direct
negotiations with the rebels, meeting a key demand of the
local leaders. The Eritreans, in return, agreed to urge
the insurgents to accept a cease-fire. According to some
press reports, local leaders have already begun talks
with insurgent leaders on a possible truce and direct ne-
gotiations between them and the council.
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MEXICO
Secretary of National. Properties Horacio Flores de
la Pena was fired unexpectedly on Friday from his cabi-
net post, which gave him power over government policy on
oil and other national resources.
The departure of Flores, the most leftist member of
President Echeverria's cabinet, will please Mexican busi-
nessmen and others disenchanted with the more radically
nationalistic aspects of the Echeverria administration.
Flores' replacement, Francisco Javier Alejo, is a young
economist who is thought to have been a member of Echever-
ria's "kitchen cabinet" of advisers.
Flores left ostensibly to "turn the job over to a
younger man," but it is more likely that he was let go
because he fell into disfavor with Echeverria over the
issue of Mexican membership in the Organization of Petro-
leum Exporting Countries. Flores had pushed hard and
often for full Mexican membership in OPEC. Echeverria
and other high officials, however, presently seem, in
light of the US Trade Reform Act, to be adopting a "go-
slow" approach toward OPEC membership. Flores had been
prone to make misleading statements on Mexico's oil-
export policy, and he had also embarrassed the govern-
ment with disconcerting public statements regarding his
personal life.
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Nearly the entire Costa Rican legislative assembly
leaves today for a one-week stay in Cuba as guests of
the Castro government.
The trip's promoter is assemblyman Eduardo Mora,
a leader of the Costa Rican Communist Party. Mora
hopes that the good-will jaunt, will have favorable re-
percussions throughout Latin America, as well as foster
renewed diplomatic relations between San Jose and Havana.
Costa Rica's flamboyant foreign minister, Gonzalo
Facio, has long advocated the lifting of sanctions
against Cuba so that Havana's relations throughout the
hemisphere could be normalized. Since the Organization
of American States failed to remove sanctions in Novem-
ber, President Daniel Oduber has publicly welcomed
trade, but denied interest in renewing diplomatic rela-
tions. Following the line of still-active former presi-
dent Jose Figueres, Oduber has stated he will not agree
to move on the diplomatic front until Castro frees all
political prisoners.
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