CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010010-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 10
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National 1 nt~el l igenoe
Bulletin
State Dept. review
completed
Top Secret
N?_ 654
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 22, 1974
CONTENTS
MBFR: Bonn and The Hague may propose changes in the
West's negotiating position. (Page 2)
U5SR-US: Soviet media play up significance of Vladi-
vostok summit. (Page 4)
INTERNATIONAL COPPER: CIPEC announces 10-percent export
cutback. Page 6
ALGERIA-IRAN: First step toward gas cartel. (Page 8)
GREECE: New government formed entirely from Karamanlis'
own party. (Page 10)
FRANCE: Government and labor in standoff. (Page 11)
ZAIRE-PORTUGAL: Soares to visit Zaire, reportedly to
discuss the decolonization of Angola. (Page 13)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 14)
ANNEX: Communists Plan for Heavy Military Action in
South Vietnam (Page 15)
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National Intelligence bulletin
MBFR
November 22, 1974
Nearly all the major West European participants now
seem to agree that the West should at least reconsider
the substance and tactics of its bargaining position in
the Vienna force reduction talks. The West Germans and
the Dutch are the latest to discuss changing the Western
negotiating position.
The basic objective of the West is to obtain an
agreement that would establish an overall balance be-
tween NATO and Warsaw Pact ground forces in Central
Europe. The West has proposed that a "common ceiling"
of about 700,000 men be imposed on ground forces, The
NATO allies have argued that reductions should be made
in two phases, and that only the U5 and the USSR should
participate in a first phase. Tactically, the allies
have concentrated their efforts on obtaining acceptance
of this phased approach.
The USSR and its allies have consistently rejected
the common-ceiling concept because ,they would have to
reduce more than the NATO allies, They have also.
stressed that all participants must take part in each
phase of the reduction process. The two sides have
been unable to reconcile these differing views, and the
talks in Vienna remain deadlocked.
The Soviet side apparently is not disturbed by the
impasse and seems content to play a waiting game. Sev-
eral of the West :European states, however, are under
domestic pressure to reduce their armed forces. They
hope to be able t~o do so in the context of a force re-
duction agreement, and are growing increasingly anxious
that one be concl~udecl.
A West German Foreign Office official has privately
told a US official that Bonn is considering various ways
to include West European forces in a single phase of
reductionso His :imprecision in describing the details
of one of these alternatives suggests the West Germans
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 22, 1974
are still formu~.ating their views. The West German said
Chancellor Schmidt might want to discuss the alternatives
when he visits Washington on December 4 and 5.
A Dutch diplomat acknowledged last week that his
government is already considering suggestions for chang-
ing Western tactics. He added that some officials in
The Hague are wondering whether the emphasis placed by
the West on the two-phase approach has not become a
"sacred cow." The Dutch have made clear that they wish
to reduce their forces soon.
With the exception of the Belgians, who have raised
the issue in various Western capitals as well as in
Vienna, none of the West Europeans has formally suggested
revision of the NATO approach. The growing dissatisfac-
tion with the present stand suggests, however, that for-
mal proposals may be made in the near future, probabl
after the Vienna talks recess in mid-December.
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National I ntell igence Bulletin November 2 2 , 19 7 4
The Soviets are stressing the significance of the
.Vladivostok summit talks beginning tomorrow. They are
expressing optimism that. the talks will strengthen US-
USSR relations an.d~, give a fresh impetus to international
detente?
Moscow has. stayed away from speculation on possible
specific agreements`, but has reported President Ford's
stated hope that- the summit will permit further progress
on strategic-arms limitationsm
On Wednesday,:Pxavda reported President Ford's sup-
port of the trade bill now before the US Congress,. and
Literatur~na~ra Gaze!ta quoted officials of the Republican
anc~Democratic national committees; as well as other
Americans, who have welcomed improved US-Soviet rela-
tions and prospects for increased trade.. The previous
day, Deputy Foreign Trade-Minister Manzhulo warned in
Pravda of the possible consequences should the US fail
to grant the USSR most-favored-nation statuse He ob-
served that "rehaxat-ion and discrimination are difficult
things to make comp;atib le . "
A Radio Moscow-commentary in .English beamed to North
America on Wednesday emphasized the Soviet people?s "deep
and authentic" interest in the summits Echoing leadership
statements, Soviet media acknowledge that the more "in-
fluential ruling groups" in the US support detente, but
the media continue. to ascribe dark designs to "sti11-
powerful reactionary forces."
The Soviets :have reacted to recent charges that the
U5SR is violating-.the 1972 SALT accords, In an unusually
explicit rebuttal last week, Deputy Defense Minister
Tolubko, commander of the strategic rocket forces, denied
any Soviet wrong-doing. He described the charges as fab-
rications by enemies of detente. The Soviets have noted
the Pentagon's denial that either the USSR or the US is
violating the int~~r~im agreement,
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 22, 1974
In recent weeks Soviet propaganda has been critical
of the U5 role in the Middle East, in part to reassure
the Arabs of continued Soviet support on the eve of the
summit, and in part to show that Moscow still thinks the
US has not been sufficiently sensitive to Soviet inter-
ests in the area.
A commentary in Izvestia on Wednesday was highly
critical of the Sinai and Golan disengagement agreements
and asserted that Israeli "warmongering" is being facili-
tated by an "uninterrupted flow of modern weapons from
across the ocean."
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National Intelligence .Bulletin November 22, 1974
INTERNATIONAL COPPER
The announcement by the Intergovernmental Council
of Copper Exporting Countries of a 10-percent cutback
in copper exports by member nations is the first step
taken by this group to raise prices. [~lorld copper prices
have slid over the past seven months from $1.52 a pound
to about 65 cents.
Although the council--Chile, Zambia, Zaire, and
Peru--did not announce a price goal, 80 cents a pound
was mentioned by its director prior to this week's meet-
ing in Paris. Chile has already announced a six-month
shutdown of one mine as a step toward meeting its com-
mitment. One council member says the 10-percent cutback
will be increased if prices do not respond.
A 10-percent cut, if maintained, would reduce sales
by about 230,000 tons over the next 12 months. Produc-
tion in the first 11 months of this year was about 300,000
tons greater than demand, and stocks and inventories have
been rebuilt since a heavy demand for copper depleted
stocks in 1973. The addition of an estimated 260,000
tons of new mining capacity in non-council countries will
have a further depressing effect on prices next year.
The four council countries may be reluctant to make
further cutbacks in the face of rising production by other
copper producers and slackened world demand. Barring
further cutbacks, a sustained rise in copper prices is
unlikely.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 22, 1974
ALGERIA-IRAN
Algiers and Tehran have taken the-first step toward
organizing gas-exporting countries under OPEC auspices.
During meetings early this month in Algiers, Iranian and
Algerian experts worked over the fine points of a high-
level agreement reached earlier on coordinated action
in the marketing of natural gas. If they act together,
the two countries will be a strong force in negotiating
gas prices since they control the major share of Middle
East reserves. Iranian gas reserves may be the largest
in the world.
Both Tehran and Algiers apparently want to bring
other gas producers into the scheme. At the end of the
recent meeting, their delegates raised the idea of bring-
ing the matter up at an early OPEC meeting. In that
forum, they probably would get support from current or
prospective gas exporters such as Libya, Indonesia, and
Nigeria.
The Shah probably will be the strongest backer of
a gas exporters' cartel. He is counting on gas revenues
to help finance Iran's ambitious development programs.
The Shah has lorng been critical of the disparity between
gas and oil prices, and he will use this argument in
urging other countries to work collectively for higher
gas prices.
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National ~Inte('ligenc~e bulletin
GREECE
November 22, 1974
The new Greer; government formed yesterday by Prime
Minister Karamanl~.s is made up of older technicians and
veteran politicians--most are over 60--drawn only from
his New Democracy Party.
Holdovers from the previous cabinet include Foreign
Minister Bitsios, a career diplomat who replaced George
P~.avros in that post only recently, and Minister of De-
fense Averoff and Minister of Public t~rder Gikas, both
of whom have good relations with the military. The key
economic ministries are held either by technicians or by
politicians without previous ministerial experience, sug-
gesting that Kararanlis will take the lead in this area.
It is a cabinet unlikely to challenge Karamanlis' author-
ity or send off ma_xed signals, as was the case when
Mavros was foreign minister.
The opposition parties that Karamanlis defeated so
handily are blaming each other for their poor showing.
The Communist United Left and Mavros' Center Union - New
Forces claim that Andreas Papandreou's new Panhellenic
Socialist Movement was a divisive force that drew votes
from their constii~uency on the left. Papandreou's party,
which received 13 percent of the vote, has accused the
left and Center Union of contributing to New Democracy's
victory by giving Karamanlis moral support.
The.'US embas:~y believes that Papandreou's reckless
rhetoric during the final week of the campaign drove
undecided middle class vaters seeking a calmer political
atmosphere into the Karamanlis camp.. It views the poor
showing by Papandreou as an indication of Greek unwilling-
ness to accept hi:~ program for a socialist, nonaligned
Greece, outlined