NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027200010002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 18, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
Top Secret
N?_ 654
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 18, 1974
CONTENTS
ISRAEL-SYRIA-EGYPT: Syria and Israel state intentions
to abi e by cease-fire agreement. (Page 1)
GREECE: Karamanlis wins decisive election victory.
Page 3)
PORTUGAL: Tensions subside as several political parties
issue statements supporting the government. (Page 4)
TURKEY: New government formed. (Page 5)
MOROCCO-UN: Rabat seeks to have Spanish Sahara dispute
referred to International Court. (Page 6)
IRAN-USSR: Relations improved, but far from cordial,
as Shah begins visit. (Page 8)
ARGENTINA: The return of Eva Peron's remains may pro-
v de rallying point for leftist support. (Page 9)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 18, 1974
ISRAEL-SYRIA-EGYPT
Tensions eased somewhat in the Middle East yester-
day after both Syria and Israel said publicly they in-
tend to abide by the cease-fire agreement.
Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam issued a statement
from Damascus reaffirming Syria's commitment to the
cease-fire and accusing Israel of waging a "tendentious
campaign against Syria" to cover up its own aggressive
intentions.
In an attempt to reassure the Israeli public,
Defense Minister Peres said on national television Sat-
urday night that he expected developments in the near
future to be political rather than military. He charac-
terized the Israeli mobilization as a "precautionary
measure" in response to an "escalation of military alert-
ness in Syria." Peres cited the Rabat summit conference,
rumors that Syria would not renew the UN observer force's
mandate, and Arab assertions concerning Israeli weak-
nesses as contributory causes of Israeli concern.
On Sunday, Peres issued a statement that there had
been a "relaxation of tension" on both sides of the
Syrian cease-fire lines. Later, Radio Jerusalem reported
that the Israeli ambassador to the US had told Secretary
Kissinger that Israel had no aggressive intentions.
In Egypt, the press yesterday featured stories on
the urgent dispatch of messages from Sadat to President
Ford and Soviet party chief Brezhnev. One news story
emphasized reports that Washington and Moscow are anx-
ious to avoid another war in the Middle East. Editorials
accused Israel of fomenting the current war scare.
Militarily, both sides remained watch l over the
weekend.
President
a a s con acts with his senior military and political
advisers were well publicized in the Cairo media yes-
terday. There have been no direct indications of Syr-
ian military movements.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 18, 1974
Moscow announced on Saturday that Vice Admiral
Khovrin, the new commander of the Black Sea Fleet, would
pay an official six-day visit to the Syrian port of La-
takia beginning November 20. He is aboard a Kynda-class
guided-missile cruiser that entered he Mediterranean on
November 15.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 18, 1974
Prime Minister Karamanlis' New Democracy Party won
a decisive victory in the Greek election yesterday, pull-
ing in about 55 percent of the popular vote for a solid
parliamentary majority. Karamanlis' nearest rival was
the centrist Center Union - New Forces led by George
Mavros, which won about 20 percent of the vote. The
United Left--a coalition of two Communist parties and
a former Communist front group--won about 9 percent of
the vote, having lost votes to Andreas Papandreou's
Panhellenic Socialist Movement, which received about
13 percent of the vote. The rightist National Democratic
Union got less than 2 percent of the vote.
Although the outcome may change slightly when the
results from the Greek islands are received, Papandreou's
party is unlikely to receive the 17 percent of the vote
necessary to enter the second "distribution" of seats
under the electoral law. These seats, about 90 in all,
will be divided between the New Democracy and Center
Union. Karamanlis' party may get some 200 seats in
the 300-member parliament and Mavros' party over 60.
Karamanlis' old party, the conservative National
Radical Union, never before received an outright major-
ity of votes in an election. Karamanlis has brought
his new party closer to the center and broadened its
base; he has also clearly profited from the post-crisis
atmosphere under which the election took place. Follow-
ing the plebiscite on the monarchy scheduled for Decem-
ber 8, which is expected to result in a vote against the
restoration of the king, Karamanlis' first priority will
be to revise the constitution in order to strengthen
the executive.
Karamanlis now has the clear mandate he sought to
negotiate on Cyprus. Although his government will not
accept a solution that does not involve some satisfactory
settlement of the Greek Cypriot refugee problem, he is
in a position to be flexible.
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November 18, 1974
Public opinion will continue to demand a more inde-
pendent, nationalistic approach to links with NATO and
the US, but Karamanlis is now in a position to call the
shots, as he would not have been with a more ambiguous
Tensions in Lisbon, brought on late last'week by
the demands of some moderate Portuguese military offi-
cers that the leftist-influenced Armed Forces Movement
Coordinating Committee be disbanded, appear to have sub-
sided, at least for the moment.
Over the weekend, spokesmen for several political
parties issued statements backing the government. I
Members of the Armed Forces Movement apparently
are attempting to reconcile moderates and militants
within the movement.
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November 18, 1974
TURKEY
Sadi Irmak, given the task of forming a new govern-
ment after Ecevit's resignation, has put together a cabi-
net composed largely of technocrats and other nonpoliti-
cal figures. President Koruturk yesterday approved the
new government, allowing it to take office with Irmak as
prime minister. It will, however, have to face a vote
of confidence in parliament in the near future.
At its first meeting yesterday, the new cabinet
began drafting a legislative program acceptable to par-
liament. With parliamentary support, Irmak should be
able to head an interim government until a national elec-
tion can be held next spring or fall.
More than half of the 26 cabinet members are not
affiliated with any political party and have backgrounds
as career government servants or as university profes-
sors, like Irmak himself. Melih Esenbel, currently the
Turkish ambassador to Washington, will serve as foreign
minister. Ilhami Sancar, from
the small Republic Reliance Party, wi head the Defense
Ministry, a position he has held several times in the
past.
Irmak's hopes of putting together a "national coa-
lition" with cabinet ministers drawn from all the major
parties apparently foundered on the issue of the timing
of a new election. Ecevit's Republican People's Party
wants them scheduled for next spring. When the major
rightist parties refused to agree to a fixed date, Ece-
vit announced that his party would not participate in
the new government. The Justice Party, Ecevit's major
opposition, had earlier declined Irmak's invitation to
join the government.
Leaders of the Justice and Republican People's
parties said they would decide whether to support Irmak
after he presents his program to parliament.
Ecevit has agreed that outgoing Foreign Minister
Gunes would remain available to assist the new govern-
ment on Cyprus and other foreign policy problems.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 18, 1974
Morocco this week will ask the UN's fourth commit-
tee, which deals with non-self-governing territories, to
refer the dispute over Spanish Sahara to the International
Court of Justice for an advisory opinion. Committee
deliberations on Spanish Sahara are scheduled to begin
today.
The US embassy in Rabat reports that the Moroccans
have prepared a detailed draft resolution they hope the
committee will adopt and submit to the General Assembly
for approval. The draft will endorse an earlier Moroc-
can request for an advisory court opinion and specify
the questions the court should address.
A senior Moroccan Foreign Ministry official has
told the US ambassador that his government expected the
resolution to provide an alternative, such as a referen-
dum, in the event the court failed to hand down a clear-
cut decision on rival Moroccan and Mauritanian claims to
the territory. He added, however, that any future refer-
endum would require "detailed shaping," a clear indica-
tion Rabat would again oppose an independence option and
demand that Saharans living in Morocco be allowed to vote.
Morocco will probably encounter little opposition
in the fourth committee discussions. Mauritania accepted
the Moroccan proposal last month, provided the court
rules on Nouakchott's claim to Spanish Sahara. Algeria,
which continues to maintain that it is an interested
party with political and security interests to protect,
is unlikely to oppose referral of the Saharan issue to
the court because Algerian interests would be served by
keeping the controversy on the back burner.
Spain has also indicated that it will acquiesce if
the UN General Assembly decides to ask the court for an
advisory opinion. At the same time, however, Madrid is
continuing preparations for the referendum that it has
promised to hold in Spanish Sahara next year. It has
virtually completed a census that will determine the
identity and number of people eligible to vote.
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November 18, 1974
Despite Moroccan claims to the contrary, the three
African parties to the dispute still seem far from an
agreement on the ultimate disposition of Spanish Sahara.
Mauritania and Algeria probably hope that the court,
faced with competing claims, will recommend a UN-super-
vised referendum enabling the indigenous people of Span-
ish Sahara to make their own choice. Both countries
would oppose a demand by Morocco that its Saharans be
allowed to participate in any future referendum.
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November 18, 1974
The Shah's visit to the USSR begins today, his first
since 1972.
The up-and-down relations between the two countries
have never been warm, but they took a turn for the better
last August when Moscow gave in to Iranian demands that
it pay higher prices for Iranian natural gas exports to
the USSR, Moscow has expressed interest in further eco-
nomic ties, and this will figure prominently in the dis-
cussions with the Shah.
Other subjects will include the Middle East and the
Indian Ocean. The Shah is likely to discuss his recent
proposals for security and economic cooperation in the
Indian Ocean region. Moscow probably will push its long-
standing proposal for an Asian collective security arrange-
ment. Iran's support of US plans to expand military fa-
cilities at Diego Garcia could also be raised by Moscow.
Although Soviet-Iranian relations are improved,
they are far from cordial. The Shah distrusts Moscow's
activity in the Indian Ocean and what he regards as
Soviet sponsorship of subversion in the Persian Gulf.
The Shah objects especially to Soviet arms aid to the
Baathist regime in Iraq and to South Yemen, which is
headquarters for a leftist guerrilla movement seeking
to overthrow the Iranian-supported government of Oman.
He cites the alleged threat from Iraq and the Omani ex-
ample as justification for his own arms buildup.
Although particularly unhappy with Moscow's arms
aid to his adversaries in Baghdad, the Shah may wish
to avoid or play down this issue while in Moscow. Rais-
ing it would invite a Soviet counterattack on the subject
of Iran's military intervention on the side of the rebel-
lious Iraqi Kurds. Baghdad has been pressing its Soviet
ally to intervene with Tehran to obtain the withdrawal
of Iranian support for the Kurds. Moscow has so far
refused, not wanting to strain relations with Iran. F~
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ARGENTINA
November 18, 1974
Jose Lopez Rega, minister of social welfare and
private secretary to President Maria Estela de Peron, re-
turned to Argentina yesterday escorting the body of Eva
Peron. The Peronist movement considers Evita, the sec-
ond wife of the late president Juan Peron, a political
saint.
The return of Eva Peron's body is intended to have
an immediate political impact at home. Peron's third
wife, Maria Estela, who succeeded to the presidency when
he died last July, hopes the repatriation of Evita's
remains will provide a rallying point for the much-needed
leftist labor support. In an emotional address she an-
nounced the news to the nation, referring to Evita as
the "spirtual chief of the nation."
Evita's return may be having the desired effect.
Following the announcement, the Montoneros--a terrorist
group--promptly returned the body of former president
Pedro Aramburu, whom they claim to have assassinated
several years ago. It was Aramburu who overthrew Juan
Peron in 1955 and had Eva's body sent out of the coun-
try. The return of his remains--stolen a month ago--is
believed to have considerable political significance.
During his five-day trip, Lopez Rega may have
visited Libya to discuss several sizable trade deals
and loans already under consideration.
The US embassy in Tripoli believes that these re-
ports of the extent of Libya's economic commitment may
be exaggerated. Nevertheless, it feels the Libyans
might be willing to make one or two large deals in order
to establish an Arab bridgehead in Latin America. They
would in turn expect Argentina to adopt a pro-Arab at-
titude,
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