CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027100010028-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: April 19, 2000
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 4,. 1974
CONTENTS
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MEXICO: Press and government officials puzzled over
Echeverria's announcement not to insist on new bracero
agreement with US. (Page 2)
IRAN: Shah renews oil price proposal. (Page 3)
TURKEY: Justice Party vetoes coalition proposal.
(Page 4)
INDIA: Mass protests scheduled in Bihar. (Page 6)
ANGOLA: Racial violence breaks out in northeastern
Angola. (Page 7)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 9)
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 4, 1974
The Mexican press corps and some government officials
are scratching their heads over President Echeverria's
announcement during his meeting with President Ford that
Mexico will stop insisting on a new bracero agreement
with the US.
Echeverria's statement was not consistent with the
government's position; a bracero agreement, which would
legalize the large, illegal flow of Mexican workers
across the border, had been the foremost bilateral is-
sue for Mexican policymakers for many months.
Foreign Minister Rabasa told US Ambassador Jova that
Echeverria's decision was his own and, in Rabasa's opin-
ion, made for "mistaken reasons."
The puzzled Mexican press initially sought to ra-
tionalize Echeverria's words, but most of the press and
the public find it difficult to interpret the "new"
Mexican position positively.
Press reporting on Echeverria's charter of economic
rights and duties of states, the other key topic for
the Mexicans at Nogales, was for a time misleading.
The press at first interpreted Echeverria's highly op-
timistic comments to mean that the US would give the
charter unequivocal support. Later articles more ac-
curately reflected Washington's reservations.
Mexico doubtless would like to settle differences
with the US over the charter's section on nationaliza-
tion of foreign properties, but it may not have control
over the charter's final wording. Radical members of
the Group of 77, the assemblage of nations drafting the
document, apparently intend to push for the charter's
adoption in the UN General Assembly this year, regard-
less of whether the US and other large states agree on
the ke articles
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 4, 1974
The Shah of Iran has made a new bid for support of
his proposal for a single oil price system for the OPEC
nations, prior to next month's crucial discussions among
OPEC oil ministers.
The Shah restated his proposal at his news conference
in Tehran on Saturday. The Shah's proposal would lower
the posted price of light Arabian crude oil by about 14
percent. The posted price is only used for accounting
purposes, however, and the Shah's proposal would not re-
duce the per-barrel revenues of the producing countries
or lower the average cost of oil to consumers. Other
pricing systems currently applied to buy-back and royalty
oil would be dropped.
The Shah's proposal also includes an indexing
scheme which would tie future changes in the price of
oil to changes in the prices of 20 or 30 selected com-
modities. In the current era of double-digit inflation,
the indexing plan would therefore virtually assure that
consumer oil prices would go up. The Shah recommended
that company profits be restricted in order to ease the
consumers' burden.
The Shah's proposal, or some variation of it, is
likely to be adopted by the OPEC oil ministers when they
meet in Vienna next month. Several other OPEC nations
have also advanced single price proposals, and the OPEC
Working Committee on Oil Pricing has agreed to recommend
a single price system to the ministers' meeting. Al-
though the major producers have indicated strong support
for a single price system, much behind-the-scenes maneu-
vering is expected before the price is set. If the OPEC
ministers adopt a single price system, it will probabi
go into effect during the first quarter of 1975.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 4, 1974
Turkish Prime Minister Ecevit's bid to gain Justice
Party cooperation in forming a new government was rejected
yesterday by Suleyman Demirel. Demirel turned down all
nine proposals Ecevit made last month, including the
offer of a coalition or for either Demirel's Justice
Party or Ecevit's Republican People's Party to support
the other in forming a minority government.
Ecevit will meet with leaders of his own party to-
day before deciding what his next move will be. There
appears to be little new he can try, however. Since
breaking up his governing coalition on September 18,
Ecevit has sought to form coalitions with both the Demo-
cratic Party and the Justice Party, has tried to gain
approval for early elections, and has even returned his
mandate to President Koruturk to let Demirel try to form
a government.
Ecevit had seemed close to gaining agreement for a
coalition from the small Democratic Party on two previous
occasions, and he may try once more. Even if the Demo-
crats refuse him he might gain their support in a vote
of confidence in parliament for organizing a minority
government. Failing this, Ecevit would have little
choice but to resubmit his mandate to President Koruturk,
who again might try to gain support for a nonpartisan
government to move the country toward elections some
time next year.
Ecevit will continue to head the caretaker regime
until a new government is formed. He continues to argue,
however, that a strong government is needed to deal with
the Cyprus issue and the nation's growing economic prob-
lems. Parliament convened on November 1 but can deal
only with noncontroversial issues, depriving Ecevit of
the support he would need for any new initiatives.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 4, 1974
INDIA
A mass protest against corruption in the state gov-
ernment of Bihar in northern India is scheduled to take
place today in Patna, the capital. The protest could
precipitate the eventual downfall of the state govern-
ment. Today's demonstration climaxes a seven-month cam-
paign led by aging pacifist J. P. Narayan to bring down
the government of Bihar, India's poorest and most cor-
rupt state.
According to press reports from New Delhi, police
yesterday arrested 1,000 potential troublemakers in the
state. New Delhi can contain the protest fairly easily,
but some bloodshed seems inevitable. Large demonstra-
tions in Patna last month resulted in 13 deaths and
thousands of arrests.
The demonstrations proved that Narayan has signifi-
cant support. Today's protest could lead to nationwide
publicity for Narayan; opposition parties have called
for a 24-hour general strike in New Delhi in support of
the Bihar protest.
With national elections due early next year, Mrs.
Gandhi will move cautiously. She will wish to avoid
endangering the unity of her Congress Party and is un-
likely to delve deeply into corruption at high levels
of her administration.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 4, 1974
ANGOLA
Portuguese military forces are attempting to quell
a sudden wave of racial violence that broke out last
week in the Malange area of northeastern Angola. Press
reports from Luanda claim that bands of Africans have
sacked homes, stores, public buildings, and at least one
bank.
The US consul general in Luanda has been informed
by military sources that the violence is the work of
marauding bands of Africans taking revenge against white
farmers and merchants who, the Africans believe, have
been exploiting them. A number of farms apparently have
been burned out, and white travelers have been ambushed.
Army sources also claim that white vigilantes dressed
in military jungle garb have retaliated against African
villages.
The Malange area was in the early 1960s the scene
of violence stemming from the depressed state of the
area's important cotton economy. The violence was not
associated with the Angolan nationalist movement; the
population in the Malange area has resisted identifica-
tion with the rebel groups. The army claims it has as-
surances from the insurgents that they will help restore
order.
The Malange area could emerge as a major trouble
spot both for the Portuguese and for an independent
Angolan government, unless labor practices are improved
and the area's cotton economy is put on a sounder eco-
nomic footing.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 4, 1974
Romania: Romanian Foreign Minister Macovescu ar-
rives in France today for a two-day, official visit.
He will concentrate on economic and commercial matters,
particularly the acquisition of a low-interest loan of
about $106 million and the purchase of Puma-330 heli-
copters. Other topics on the agenda include the Middle
East, the European security conference, Cyprus, and a
possible reciprocal opening of consulates.
lage northeast of Saigon--allegedly killing three per-
sons and wounding ten others. Government spokesmen in
South Vietnam: Saigon remained quiet over the Na-
tional Day weekend. Catholic and Buddhist militants
reportedly held peaceful antigovernment rallies in the
capital yesterday, but there were no street demonstra-
tions. We have no information to confirm press reports,
attributed to an opposition senator, of security forces
firing into a group of Catholic demonstrators in a vil-
Saigon have denied the charges.
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