CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027100010012-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: April 19, 2000
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 24, 1974
CONTENTS
TURKEY-GREECE: Ankara's decision to move ahead with
oil exploration in the Aegean could renew dispute with
Athens. (Page 1)
GREECE: The exiling of Papadopoulos should increase the
Prime Minister's standing among all groups except the
extreme right. (Page 2)
ITALY: Fanfani reportedly to attempt again to form
coalition government. (Page 3)
SAUDI ARABIA: Jidda to open investment planning office
in Europe or the US. (Page 7)
EC: Finance ministers agree to float loan to help fi-
nance EC members' deficits. (Page 8)
SOUTH KOREA: Pak clamps down on critics. (Page 11)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 12)
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 24, 1974
TURKEY-GREECE
The Greek-Turkish dispute over oil rights in the
Aegean could be rekindled as a result of Ankara's deci-
sion to move ahead with oil exploration in the area.
The Turks have signed contracts with Norwegian and
Danish companies to conduct seismic surveys in the Aegean.
The exploration is expected to begin by late November.
An official in the Ministry of Power has also informed
the US embassy that the Turkish Petroleum office has con-
cluded an agreement with an American consortium for seis-
mic research and exploratory drilling.
The power official said Ankara has rejected Greek
protests over Turkish activity in the Aegean Sea but is
willing to try to negotiate the problem. The timing of
the Turkish announcement of the contracts with the Scan-
dinavian companies, however, comes at an awkward time
for'Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis, who is involved in
an election campaign in which problems with Turkey over
Cyprus are already a hot issue.
Although the Turkish action seems likely to spark
additional Greek protests, both sides will probably
avoid a direct confrontation over the issue at this time.
The Greeks, in fact, have expressed some interest in
resolving the problem as part of a package that would
include Cyprus. There has been no progress yet, however.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
GREECE
October 24, 1974
The exile on October 23 of former president Papadop-
oulos and four of his close associates in the junta that
overthrew the civilian government in 1967 appears designed
to satisfy public sentiment that justice should be done
and that leading personalities of the military regimes
should be punished.
This has become a major election issue, and Prime
Minister Karamanlis has been vulnerable to criticism
from the left that he has not broken decisively with the
past. The move should increase his standing among all
groups except the extreme right.
Karamanlis probably is also reacting to earlier
indications that Papadopoulos and other former junta
leaders were planning to form a political party or sup-
port the newly formed National Democratic Union (EDE)
led by Petros Garoufalias. The right-wing EDE will
draw votes from Karamanlis' conservative constituency
and from army officers who are dissatisfied with Kara-
manlis' policies. One of the exiled junta leaders had
even planned to run for parliament under the EDE banner.
A Karamanlis emissary has reportedly been trying
to persuade disgruntled conservative labor leaders--
ousted under a recent government decree--not to support
Garoufalias. The emissary claims that even if the EDE
got only 3 percent of the popular vote, Karamanlis'
electoral prospects could be badly damaged.
There is no evidence that Papadopoulos was conspir-
ing against the government, as a spokesman for Karamanlis
has charged. His arrest is unlikely to produce a strong
reaction from the army, as he does not retain signifi-
cant support there. Charges against former Greek strong-
man Ioannidis, who overthrew Papadopoulos in 1973, are
also under investigation. A move against Ioannidis, who
is presently in hiding, would be more difficult, how-
ever, because there is still pro-Ioannidis sentiment in
the army.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 24, 1974
Christian Democratic chief Amintore Fanfani has re-
portedly been persuaded by his party to make a last try
at reviving Italy's center-left coalition.
Fanfani, after a week of hard bargaining that had
seen differences on most issues narrowed, was on the
verge of giving up yesterday after a deadlock developed
between the Socialists and the three other parties over
the issue of government policy toward organized labor.
The Socialists yesterday declared themselves ready for
further talks, but they may yet conclude that for the
,moment, an opposition role would be more politically
advantageous.
Neither side has budged on. the question of how to
respond to labor's drive for a package of costly bene-
fits coupled with steep increases in wage adjustments
that would be automatically linked to the cost-of-living
index. Labor--management talks on these issues are
bogged down, and the Socialists--in their proposals for
a new government program--are backing the unions to the
hilt.
The other parties are convinced that too many con-
cessions to labor would scuttle Italy's two-month-old
austerity program--the linchpin of efforts to reduce
the country's growing budget deficit. The Socialists
have often said that they could not remain in govern-
ment.if doing so meant getting out of step with their
constituents in organized labor.
. If Fanfani fails to find a compromise on this and
any other remaining issues, the immediate prospect is
for some kind of caretaker government that would pre-
pare the way for either a later attempt to re-form the
center-left coalition or--as a last resort--early par-
liamentary elections.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 24, 1974
SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Arabia is reported ready to establish an of-
fice in Europe or the US to assist it in investing sur-
plus oil revenue. The new office, responsible to Prince
Fahd, is the first step in reducing Jidda's reliance on
Western expertise for investment management.
Establishment of the new office would mean that
Saudi officials apparently have reduced the decision-
making role of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency. This
organization, responsible for managing Saudi revenues,
has relied heavily for financial guidance on foreign
banks and investment firms.
Despite the shift, Western experts will continue to
play a major role in identifying investment opportunities
for the Saudis. Surging oil revenues and the lack of
Saudi investment specialists will force the new office
to turn to Westerners.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 24, 1974
EC finance ministers agreed in principle at their
meeting this week to float a $3-billion community loan
to help finance members' oil-related payments deficits.
The move represents a substantial step forward for the
Community politically, although the size of the loan is
only a token amount.
While the Community will arrange the loan, individ-
ual governments will be liable in case of default. West
Germany, the ^K, and France will each be responsible for
up to 44 percent of the loan, even if other guarantors
refuse to pay, while other members' obligations range
between 3 and 15 percent.
Technical details of the loan still remain to be
resolved. The EC Council, at its meeting on November
18, may decide which EC institution will act as borrow-
ing agent and whether the loan will be offered in the
European capital market or placed directly with oil pro-
ducers.
The loan will be able to meet only a small portion
of the needs of such hard-hit members as Italy, whose
oil-related deficit is now about $6 billion a year. Fur-
ther EC loans will require the unanimous approval of the
Council and parliamentary approval in a number of member
states, including West Germany. Bonn's active support
will therefore be necessary for any future Community
borrowing, and Germany will look closely at any future
requests. The compromises Bonn made this week, however,
show that the Germans recognize a need to demonstrate EC
solidarity.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 24, 1974
The Pak government has begun to clamp down during
the past few days on opposition politicians and press
critics.
A group of editors who failed to carry out instruc-
tions to cease all coverage of antigovernment demonstra-
tions have been picked up for questioning. More impor-
tant, several members of a small opposition party which
had planned to call for scrapping the present constitu-
tion have also been detained, The arrest of the politi-
cians was probably intended primarily as a warning to
Kim Yong-sam, the outspoken leader of the most important
opposition party.
These moves also point up Pak's concern over the
protest demonstrations, which this week have involved
hundreds of students and dissident Catholics. The dem-
onstrations have persisted, despite the closure last
week of almost half of South Korea's universities and
the detention of a number of student and Christian leaders.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 24, 1974
Turkey: All Turkish military forces along the
Greek border, with the exception of engineer units, re-
portedly have begun to withdraw from the advanced posi-
tions they took during the Cyprus crisis.
the withdrawals began on Oct O-
ber 19. All units are expected to have returned to their
normal positions in western Thrace by October 28.!
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