NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 50
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6
Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed.
Top Secret
N2 639
25X1
STAT
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin
October 17, 1974
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Dayan speaks out on question of territorial con-
cessions to Jordan. (Page 1)
GREECE: Mavros? assessment of November election. (Page 3)
TURKEY: Ecevit solicits Demirel's support to revise
electoral system. (Page 5)
EC: Finance ministers to meet to discuss borrowing plan
to offset members' oil-related payments deficits. (Page 6)
FEDAYEEN: PFLP under increased pressure to moderate
opposition to the PLO. (Page 7)
PAKISTAN: Bhutto claims Baluchi insurgency largely ended.
Page 8
USSR: Soviets preparing for missile tests in Pacific.
Page 11)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 12)
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
ISRAEL
Leaders of Israel's ruling Labor Alignment appar-
ently are attempting to avoid a major confrontation
with former defense minister Dayan over the issue of
territorial concessions to Jor
Dayan and three of his Knesset colleagues from
Labor1s Rafi faction signed a petition, circulated last
week by the opposition Likud bloc, calling on the Knesset
to go on record as opposing a reversion of West Bank
territory to Arab rule. The petition was precipitated
by Prime Minister Rabin's suggestion earlier this month
that Israel should be ready to give up parts of the
West Bank in return for a Jordanian guarantee of non-
belligerency.
At a meeting of Alignment leaders and Knesset
members on October 15, Dayan and the three other Labor
signatories reportedly were severely criticized for
their action, Apparently no action was taken against
them, however, and Rabin has not spoken out on the
matter.
The open challenge to Rabin's position and the
former defense minister's public defense of the chal-
lenge before a television audience on October 14 re-
vealed the deep divisions within the Labor Alignment
over the future of the West Bank.
Adopting one of his more uncompromising stands on
the subject, Dayan said he would vote for any Knesset
resolution opposing the return of the West Bank to a
"foreign regime," including "Jordan, the Palestinians,
or even the British?" He said he opposes:
---any territorial partition of the West Bank;
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
--any agreement preventing Jews from settling any-
where on the West Bank;
--any agreement obliging the Israeli Defense Force
to withdraw from West Bank areas it believes
ought to remain under Israeli military control.
Even if a government split is avoided, Dayan's
signature on the petition and his public defense of it
are at least an embarrassment to Rabin and a boost for
efforts by the Likud and the National Religious Party
to place the Knesset on record as opposing Israeli
territorial concessions on the West Bank.
Dayan's actions also serve to strengthen the hand
of National Religious Party elements opposed to joining
the present government, thus further complicating
Rabin's already difficult task of working out a com-
promise arrangement to bring the party back into the
coalition. Rabin on October 15 reportedly extended an
official invitation to the Religious Party to join the
cabinet. He said no decision on West Bank territorial
concessions had been made, and national elections
would be held before any decision is taken on Israeli
withdrawal from the West Bank, if one of the coalition
partners requests them.
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
GREECE
Foreign Minister Mavros resigned on Tuesday so that
he can devote full time to the election campaign of his
party, now called the Center Union -? New Forces. In step-
ping down, Mavros noted that "no developments were fore-
seen" on the Cyprus issue until after the parliamentary
elections on November 17.
Mavros recently told the US ambassador that Cyprus
would be a major campaign issue. He said the question
of a "purge" of those individuals who had collaborated
with the military regimes over the past seven years was
also a difficult campaign problem. Mavros believes
that a half-hearted drive toward "de-juntaization" would
draw attacks from the left, while too vigorous a purge
would add to disquiet on the right. He did not think
anti-Americanism would be a dominant issue.
Mavros claimed that his party and the New Democracy
Party, led by Prime Minister Karamanlis, had already
agreed to form a coalition after the elections. He
seemed confident that together the two parties could get
70 to 75 percent of the vote. He added that it was even
possible Karamanlis could win an absolute majority in
the 300-member parliament because of the proportional
representation system; even so, he said they had agreed
to combine forces after the elections.
Mavros confirmed that Karamanlis had decided to take
an "absolutely neutral" stand on the return of King Con-
stantine. As a result, he thought it unlikely that the
Greeks would vote for the monarchy in the referendum that
will follow the elections.
An official of the Soviet embassy in Athens
has told a US embassy
officer that Moscow hopes the Center Union will win
enough seats to deny a majority to Karamanlis? He said
the Soviets think Karamanlis is now the right man for
Greece, but that he would be unlikely to heed advice
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
from other leaders if his party won control of parliament.
The Soviets probably fear that a strong Karamanlis would
be less susceptible to leftist pressure.
The Soviet forecast is that Karamanlis will win 140
seats, the Center Union - New Forces 100, and the United
Left and Papandreou a maximum of 40. The right-wing
National Democratic Union and the independents would
split the remaining 20 seats.
Meanwhile, new political groups continue to appear.
A monarchist "Royal National Front" has been formed and
former Center Union deputy Nikitas Venzelos has been
floating the idea of re-establishing the Liberal Party.
Greece's last prime minister before the coup in 1967,
Panayiotis Kanellopoulos, has announced that he will not
participate in the elections as has former prime minis-
ter Markezinis, leader of the Progressive Party.
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
TURKEY
Caretaker Prime Minister Ecevit, who is now engaged
in his second round of talks aimed at forming a new
government, met with Justice Party leader Demirel on
October 15 to propose a variety of solutions to the
month-old government crisis, according to the press.
Almost all of the proposals are linked to holding an
election in either the spring or fall of 1975. Oppo-
sition leader Demirel said he would need at least ten
days to respond.
Ecevit's basic
offer calls for an agreement between the two parties
to push a revision of the national election law through
parliament that would eliminate the small splinter
parties. This would be followed by formation of either
a minority government by Ecevit's left-of-center Repub-
lican People's Party or a coalition between that party
and the conservative Justice Party which would govern
until new elections could be held in July 1975. Such
an offer would be attractive to Demirel because it
would enable the Justice Party to increase its seats
substantially.
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
The EC finance ministers will meet next Monday to
discuss a Commission plan for Community borrowing to
finance members' oil-related payments deficits. The
West German cabinet yesterday decided to back a Commu-
nity loan plan, removing the last major obstacle.
Bonn's decision means that some form of EC recycling
mechanism could be implemented before the end of the
year.
The Commission's plan, drawn up at the request of
the finance ministers, would give the ministers the
power to float an EC-guaranteed loan whenever they de-
cided that a member's request for funds was justified.
The Council would also set repayment terms and condi-
tions for the use of the funds.
Bonn will seek strict conditions in return for
giving its backing to an EC loan plan. In announcing
the cabinet's decision, Finance Minister Apel said that
Germany's liability would be limited to 44 percent of
loan proceeds. Bonn also wants to limit next year's
borrowing to $3 billion. Finally, West Germany will
seek assurances that the funds will be used to cover
oil-import payments, rather than finance increased
government spending abroad. Bonn's ability to guarantee
a portion of the loan is subject to parliamentary
approval. Apel indicated that the resulting debate
would be helpful in bringing into the open the many
fundamental political and economic issues involved and
their importance for the EC's future,
Although approval of a Community recycling effort
now seems assured, Apel indicated that the West Germans
would continue to press for a broader solution to the
international recycling problem to supplement any
Community loan scheme.
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
FEDAYEEN
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
(PFLP), one of the major fedayeen groups rejecting a
peaceful solution to the Middle East question, is under
pressure from several quarters to relent in its opposi-
tion to the moderate Palestine Liberation Organization.
opposes terrorism such as hijacking, but will take
steps to prevent it. There are indications that Fatah
Iraq, one of the PFLP's principal supporters, re-
portedly has agreed to channel its financial support
through the PLO, thus making the PFLP dependent on the
PLO for a major portion of its finances. Leaders in
Iraq have apparently told the PFLP that for the sake of
Palestinian unity, it should remain in the PLO.
PLO and Fatah leader Yasir Arafat, following his
recent success at the UN, has indicated that he not only
may already have taken such action.
The Soviets too are apparently pressuring the PFLP
to moderate its policy. Moscow believes the fedayeen
should unify and has gradually been increasing its sup-
port for PLO policies.
Habbash may believe that to accept PLO policy would
create serious internal strains and threaten the viabil-
ity of the PFLP as a radical organization. He apparently
feels that continued terrorist operations would gain him
increased support from the radical fedayeen, and therefore
further violence is possible.
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin
October 17, 1974
Prime Minister Bhutto is claiming that the 20-month-
old tribal insurgency in Baluchistan Province is largely
over. In a radio broadcast this week, Bhutto declared
that, as a result of recent army operations in the prov-
ince, most of the insurgents either had been captured or
had voluntarily accepted his offer of amnesty for all who
surrendered by October 15,
Bhutto acknowledged, however, that "remnants" of
the insurgent movement are still at large. He has given
these remaining rebels until December 15 to accept the
amnesty offer.
Bhutto is likely to hold off any major new military
operations to see if the diminished number of holdouts,
together with the onset of winter weather, leads more
of them to come down out of the hills and lay down their
arms before the new December deadline.
The problem of insurgency in Baluchistan probably
has not been resolved permanently, however. Many tribes-
men retain their long-standing interest in preventing
Islamabad from establishing full control over the prov-
ince The government has probably been exaggerating the
extent of the recent surrenders, and some of those who
have accepted the amnesty offer may well resume insurgent
activities later.
Given Baluchistan's mountainous terrain and primi-
tive communications, complete government control over
the province is difficult to establish by military means.
Bhutto has been trying to win the loyalty of the Baluchis
through increased spending on their economic development--
Baluchistan is the country's most backward province--but
it will probably take years before these efforts can have
any significant impact.
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
Neighboring Afghanistan's propaganda in support of
the Baluchi rebels will probably continue, but it might
become less intense as long as Bhutto does not launch any
new military operations in the province. There have been
signs lately that both Pakistan and Afghanistan, at least
for the present. have toned down their rhetoric against
one another?
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6
Soviets to Conduct Extended-Range
ICBM Tests
25X1-
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6
25X1_...
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
I I
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
The Soviets are preparing for a second round of
extended-range missile tests to the Pacific this month.
Moscow announced yesterday that an impact area some 400
miles north of Midway Island will be used between Octo-
ber 20 and 30. for missiles launched from the USSR.
The impact area is about 5,000 nautical miles from
the launch center at Tyuratam and about 4,700 nautical
miles from the Plesetsk center. Its size--260 nautical
miles in diameter--suggests some of the tests will in-
volve MIRVs.
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
National Intelligence Bulletin October 17, 1974
USSR-Poland: Soviet media have given prompt ap-
proval to Poliih party chief Gierek's official visit to
the US. The coverage accorded the trip was extensive,
and the commentaries have singled out for special em-
phasis the "constructive character" of the talks, the
bilateral statement of principles, and the economic
agreements that were signed. The commentators stressed
that such economic cooperation is fundamental to the
process of detente.
Spain-Portugal: Madrid has issued a statement an-
nouncing that it will not tolerate any political activ-
ity by a group of right-wing Portuguese politicians re-
ported to be living in Spain. The Spanish Foreign Min-
istry issued the statement yesterday after a right-wing
newspaper claimed that the "Portuguese Government of
the Silent Majority in Exile" had been established in
Madrid. According to a communique allegedly released
by the exiles, the organization will struggle for "the
liberation of the fatherland from... international com-
munism...and traitors to the Salazar regime." The com-
munique reportedly also expresses the group's gratitude
to Spanish rightists for their support and hospitality.
The US embassy in Madrid is attempting to confirm the
authenticity of the exiles' communique.
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010050-6
25X1
 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6
Top Secret
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975AO27000010050-6