NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010042-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 1, 2007
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: October 11, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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National 1 ntel l igence
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National I ntel I igence Bul leti n
October 11? 1974
CONTENTS
UK: Labor appears to be winning a narrow majorityr
~P age 1)
ETHIOPIA: More prominent figures of the previous
regime arresteda (Page 5)
VIETNAM: PRG endorses Hanoi~s hard line on Thieud
(Page 10 )
SOUTH KOREA: Street demonstrations have become a
major affront to the Pak government? (Page 11)
WEST GERMANY - UK - ITALY: MRCA engine problems
apparently more serious than earlier reported
(Page 13)
ITALY: Fanfani surrogate explores renewal of center
left coalitionv (Page 14)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 18)
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 11, 1974
Harold GVilson and Britain's Labor Party appear
headed for a narrow majority, enabling them to continue
in government following yesterday's national elections.
With counting completed in more than three-fourths
of the 635 parliamentary districts, the Labor Party has
captured 292 seats, 26 short of a majority. The Conserv-
atives have won 184 seats so far, and the Liberals 5.
There are no early reports from either Scotland,
where the Nationalists were expected to increase their
representation, or from Northern Ireland. Welsh nation-
alists reportedly are not doing well.
Some 71 percent of the nation's 40 million voters
went to the polls yesterday in contrast to nearly 79
percent in February. Early predictions gave Labor a
majority fluctuating between 5 and 62 seats before elec-
tion workers stopped counting last night.
Counting will resume this morning in the 146 dis-
tricts still undecided. Edward Heath, leader of the
Conservatives, declined to concede last night and said
it might be necessary to '1 all the votes were
counted this afternoon, 25xi
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 11, .1974
ETHIOPIA
The Armed Forces: Coordinating Comma.ttee announced
on Wednesday the arrest of 21 prominent figures of the
previous regime. Those detained include former high
civilian officials and two senior military officers.
Some 170 officials identified with. the old regime were
already under detention before these latest arrests.
The committee has avoided widespread arrests of
its opponents among middle-level and junior officers
and enlisted men, the ranks that have provided the
basic support for the revolution. A 1st Division officer
arrested Wednesday is tli.e only person among this group
detained since th.e arrest of several members of the
enaineerina and aviation battalions on Monday.
The committee apparently hopes to have subdued its
military opponents by the show of force and by public
warnings that it will not tolerate opposition. The var-
ious opponents, although. divided among themselves, never-
theless have the potential for making trouble.
Unrest continues to simmer in university circles.
On Monday the police in Harar, a provincial capital in
eastern Ethiopia, arrested 20 students and administrators
who had seized control of an agricultural college after
forcing the ouster of its president. The next day the
police arrested 200 more students and administrators who
t e release of their collea uesa
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National Intelligence Bulletin
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October 11 m 19'74
The Viet Cong's Provisional Revolutionary Government
issued a statement on October 8 calling fo:r the overthrow
of President Thieu as a necessary step toward the imple-
mentation of the Paris agreement.
This line first appeared last August in authoritative
articles in North Vietnam's party and army newspapers and
was quickly picked up by th.e Viet Cong's Liberation Radio.
An editorial in N~ian 'Dan on October 9 officially endorsing
the hardened Commun~ i position on Thieu is another sign
of Hanoi's disenchantment with the prospects for major
political gains through. negotiations as long as Thieu
remains in power.
The timing of the statement was clearly designed to
exploit continuing antigovernment demonstrations in the
South. The statement hailed the current political agita-
tion as proof of the public's demand for Thieu's removal
and for the formation of an "administration willing to
implement the Parris agreement."
Hanoi's position an Thieu contrasts with its earlier
line that the Thieu government would be replaced in due
course by the political process established in the Paris
agreement. Hanoi's decision to abandon this position
followed President Ford's address to Congress in August
affirming his intention to maintain US support for
Saigon,
More recently, the Communists have reacted sharply
to Deputy Secretary Clements? statement about the pos-
sibility of US mi:Litary reintervention~ citing it as an-
other indication that the US is not pre aced to lessen
significantly its support for Saigon. 2
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[~~tit3r~~l ~t~~ellig~~nce S~al~~tin
Street demonstrations in Seoul during the past two
days have become a major affront to the Pak government.
The protests have included a large Catholic demon-
stration and marches at Seaul University and a number of
other schools. Riot police have clashed with the pro-
testers, but there have been few serious injuries so far.
The demonstrations were sparked by -the leader of the ma-
~or opposition party, Kim Yong-sam, who threatened in a
speech on Monday to lead a struggle in the streets if
basic democratic reforms were nat carried out.
President Pak quickly rebuked Kim, warning publicly
that he would take firm action against any attempt to
cause trouble. The protests came immediately after P~xk'~
warning..
The demonstrators are emphasizing two long-standing
demands: release of people imprisoned under the emer -
gency decrees earlier this year; and reform of the con-
stitution, which gives Pak unlimited power.
The assassination attempt in August set aff a harsh
anti-Japanese campaign that diverted attention from
South Korea's serious domestic tensions, In the imme-
diate aftermath of that event, Pak dropped two of four
emergency decrees and talked some about taking other
conciliatory steps, Recently, however, Pak and his
enemies--consisting of a small but significant part of
the educated urban elite--have hardened their views and
squared off again. The basic issue is Pak's authori-
tarian rule, which he argues is necessary as long as the
confrontation with the North continues.
One new element in the situation is the planned
visit of President Ford to Seoul in November. This,
together with recent criticism of Pak in the US, may
have encouraged Pak's enemies to make protests that
would have carried grave risks earlier this year. Pak
has tried to disabuse the apposition of the notion that
it can get away with more now, stressing that the US
has made no demands that he moderate his policies, and
adding that he will take firm measures to maintain order.
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Nat~c.~at~al Intelti?~~r-~=Ice Bull~~in
October 11, 1974
The government expects the demonstrations to peak
during the next few days. Based on past performance,
security forces should be able to contain the rotest,s
but there is danger of heavy violence.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 11, 1974
WEST GERMANY - UK - ITALY
The engine problems that have. continued to trouble
the European Multirale Combat Aircraft may be more severe
than had been previously reported.
After a test flight last month, West German air force
officers told the US defense attache~in Bann that the
MRCA?s RB-199 engines 'n onl 75 ercent of
their ex ected thrust.
The MRCA has been troubled with developmental prob-
lems, cost overruns, and severe public criticism almost
from the beginning of the program. The most serious
problem encountered with the engine is that of pressure
imbalances in the turbine, apparently stemming from a
basic design error.
Those in charge of the program presumably were con-
cerned that public awareness of the seriousness of the
MRCA's engine problems might jeopardize continued ex-
penditures by the countries involved in its development--
the UK, West Germany, and Italy. Therefore they apparently
resolved that test flights could be delayed no loncrer
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National intelligence Bulletin
October 11, 1974
Italian Senate President Spagnolli is expected to
report back to President Leone within a few days on the
prospects of reconstructing the center-left coalition.
The Senate official does not have a mandate to form
a government; he is merely serving as advance man for
Leone's first choice for prime minister, Christian
Democratic party boss Amintore Fanfani. Spagnolli will
be meeting with the four feuding coalition parties in
the. next few days to assess Fanfani's chances of working
out the differences that led to the government's resigna-
tion a week ago.
President Leone reportedly was reluctant to author-
ize such an exploratory mission. He wanted Fanfani to
follow the usual procedure by immediately taking personal
charge of the interparty talkse The President's con-
cession is a victory for Fanfani--.Italy's most ex-
perienced and controversial politician. Fanfani does
not want to bear the blame if the center-left coalition
cannot be re-formed at this time.
If Fanfani accepts the assignment, his reluctant
stance may be helpful in his efforts to revive the co-
alition. All of the parties apparently declared in his
favor during Leone's consultationsm By playing hard to
get, Fanfani apparently hopes to use their preference
for him to force the parties to reveal the issues on
which they are willing to compromise; they have shown
practically no flexibility in their public statements
so far.
The effects of the stalemate on the economy began
to emerge this week when caretaker Labor Minister
Bertoldi--a Socialist--failed to mediate a dispute in
Turin between organized labor and Fiat, the country?s
largest private employer. A subsequent general strike
in Turin was marked by violence, while the unions im-
plied that Fiat officials had rejected Bertoldi's pro-
posals because they did not want to enhance Socialist
prestige during the government crisis.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 11? 1974
The caretaker government will find it increasingly
difficult to deal with labor?s demands, because the
unions want substantially the same changes in the aus-
terity program that the Socialist Warty d m d'n as
a condition for rejoining the coalition. 25x1
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National Intelligence Bl.~lletin October 11, 1974
Ecuador: President Rodriguez has ousted his ultra
nations ist minister of natural resources and replaced
him with a moderate. The new appointee,.navy Captain
Luis Salazar Landeta, is expected to follow a more prag-
matic approach toward foreign oil companies and potential
foreign investors. While Ecuador's overall nationalis-
tic stance is likely to continue, Salazar probably will
pursue petroleum policies that are less heavy-handed and
more in line with the attitudes of Rodriguez and the con-
servative elements of the government. The new minister
is not well known, but he has the trust and confidence
of the President whom he served as s c` 1 military
adviser.
USSR: For the first time in three years, Soviet
Jews, ce~ebxating the holiday of Simchath Torah on
October 8, were allo~red to sing and dance in the street
in front of Moscow's main synagogue. The-new policy
was apparently part of an effort by th.e 5ov` 1
ship to polish up its image in the West.
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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