NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010028-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 28
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed.
DIA review
completed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 3, 1974
CONTENTS
GREECE: Political parties step up activities in antici-
pation of parliamentary elections next month. (Page 1)
PORTUGAL: Costa Gomes, Neto differ in assessment of
country's future. (Page 4)
ANGOLA: White community's reaction to Spinola resigna-
tion (Page 6)
ISRAEL-JORDAN: Terrorist activity has increased recently.
Page 8
ITALY - UK - WEST GERMANY: Engine problems continue to
trouble MRCA. Page 11)
CHINA: China's imports from US this year will be lower
than expected because of decline in agricultural deliv-
eries. (Page 14)
CAMBODIA: Tensions ease. (Page 15)
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 3, 1974
Greek political parties have stepped up their ac-
tivities in anticipation of the parliamentary elections,
which were announced yesterday for November 17, and the
referendum on the future of the monarchy which is to be
held within 45 days of the election.
The political activity has touched off grumbling
among royalists and
military officers, who fear that their own positions
will be endangered if Prime Minister Karamanlis wins a
convincing victory at the polls.
Military officers appear concerned, primarily over
recent disciplinary actions Karamanlis has taken against
the army and possible further moves he might make. They
are also critical of the Prime Minister because he has
not, prevented frequent attacks by the press on the army
A military move against Karamanlis at this time
would probably be unsuccessful, largely because the army
would not be united behind it. Rightists, including army
officers, also realize that they stand to gain from elec-
tions held before the left has been able to organize an.
effective opposition.
The feuding Communists have managed to pull together
a limited program of electoral cooperation. The Moscow-
backed Greek Communist Party and the United Democratic
Left have agreed to coordinate activity for the election
only; the dissident Communist Party has also worked out
a loose arrangement with the United Democratic Left.
The US embassy reports that Andreas Papandreou's
Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement has been getting off to
a slow start. He is reportedly not getting the backing
of the liberals of the Center Union, and is drawing sup-
port only from urban youth and students.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 3, 1974
Two new political groups have emerged. A group of
prominent political personalities, all relatively young
and nearly all associated with resistance to the former
junta, has announced the formation of a left-of-center
movement called "new political forces." This movement
will probably retain a separate identity but remain
within the Center Union, with which its founders have
been aligned in the past.
Former minister of defense Petros Garouf alias
has announced
that he and nine other former deputies will form their
own political party.
Prime Minister Karamanlis is apparently having prob.-
lems getting his New Democracy Party off the ground. He
is trying to attract new personalities, particularly
liberals and uncommitted youth. To do this, he will have
to drop at least 50 former key party supporters of his
old National Radical Union from his candidates list.
Although Karamanlis` political strategy appears
carefully designed to extend his political base, dep-
uties from his old political party are disturbed that
his party's preparations for elections are lagging.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 3, 1974
PORTUGAL
Newly installed President Costa Gomes, in a conver-
sation Tuesday with the US ambassador, insisted that
the Communist Party does not have great influence in
Portugal, and predicted that the departure of discordant
elements from the government will permit greater stabil-
ity.
Costa Gomes told the ambassador that the leftward
bias of the news media had created the impression that
the Communists were more influential than actually was
the case. He said one of the first priorities of his
administration would be to correct this situation. The
ambassador noted, however, that Costa Games may have
been less than frank in describing the degree of Com-
munist influence in the country.
Costa Gomes also emphasized his government's plans
to adhere to the program of the Armed Forces Movement
and reaffirmed Portugal's fidelity to its international
and NATO commitments.
General Neto, a Spinola loyalist who lost his posi-
tions on the junta and as air force chief of staff in
the weekend shuffle, painted a much darker future for
Portugal under Costa Gomes. Neto told the US defense
attache that he expects a backlash from the armed forces
when they realize that the country is being led toward
the far left.
Neto said some elements in the military are already
disgruntled over a program that has raised flight pay
for pilots but has not provided a bonus for other elitist
fighting groups, such as the paratroops. This contro-
versy, in his opinion, could be used by centrist ele-
ments to create a pro-Spinola movement against Costa
Gomes and the Armed Forces Movement.
A struggle also is shaping up over replacing the
four junta members and the defense and communication
ministers. According to Neto, Costa Games wants to do
away with the junta. He claims that it has served its
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 3, 1974
purpose and that the Council of State and the Armed
Forces Movement Coordinating Committee will be able to
provide the necessary guidance to the provisional gov-
ernment? The Armed Forces Movement, however, insists
on retaining the junta and filling the vacancies with
their own people. Resolution of this matter should pro-
vide the first indication of who is in charge in Portu-
gal.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 3, 1974
ANGOLA
The resignation this week of Portuguese president
Spinola was met with foreboding by Angola's sizable
white population, which recognizes that Lisbon may speed
up its efforts to decolonize the territory. The whites
may feel compelled to take some preemptive action to
head off a transfer of power to black insurgents.
With Spinola's departure, Lisbon could return to a
policy of negotiating a direct transfer of power to in-
surgent leaders. Given the strong rivalry among Angola's
three insurgent organizations, however, such a policy
would only lead to protracted political confusion, par-
ticularly among Angola's whites, estimated by he US
consul general to number about 500,000 out of a popula-
tion of 6 million.
There is no shortage of white extremists who would
like to forestall an insurgent take-over. Many whites,
believing that the insurgent organizations are racist,
would fight against insurgent control. The US consul
general has been able to identify three white-led groups
of indeterminate strength that are attempting to organ-
ize full-fledged movements with a view toward planning
a coup.
These groups all claim to have the support of
whites, blacks from southern Angola, and insurgents
from the Union for the Total Independence of Angola,
the smallest of the three rebel groups. They maintain
they have the allegiance of elements within the army,
militia, and police, as well as of the elite black
Special Forces troops and former Portuguese secret po-
lice agents.
The claims are probably exaggerated. These ele-
ments are too widely dispersed geographically and too
disorganized internally to give much support to a coup.
The success of any coup depends on the support--
or the neutrality--of the 60,000 troops stationed
throughout the territory. Nearly half of these troops
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National Intelligence Bulletin
are from the metropole and. generally sympathize with
the local white population. They would be hesitant to
act against local whites in a military showdown. Lo-
cally recruited troops, the bulk of whom are black, may
be sympathetic to a black government, even if dominated
by the insurgents, but might be convinced to support a
white-led coup if there was significant black participa-
tion and if they saw a bleak future for themselves under
insurgent rule.
A white-led coup would not necessarily lead to a
white-minority regime. Many white's in Angola are recon-
ciled to the eventuality of a black government and would
support it,. provided they were assured their own interests
as a minority were respected.
As for the insurgents themselves, their own polit-
ical success is by no means guaranteed. They are in-
capacitated by internal feuds and their unwillingness
to act in concert. The president of the Popular Move-
ment for the Liberation of Angola has welcomed Spinola's
ouster and has announced that his organization will not
resume guerrilla operations in the territory. The Pop-
ular Movement is so divided that the organization could
not engage in significant military action at this time.
Military pride of place in Angola has passed to
the National Front for the Liberation of Angola, which
for the past few years played a secondary role to the
Popular Movement.
the National Front is renewing
its activities in northern Angola after a lull of sev-
eral years. Portuguese military officials estimate
that the Front has 6,000 troops in Angola, but this
figure seems high.
The Portuguese army is under orders not to engage
in offensive operations, thereby giving the guerrillas
a free hand. Renewed insurgent activity might prompt
noninsurgent leaders to attempt a coup before the Front
attained the strength to push Lisbon into negotiating
a direct transfer of power.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 3, 1974
Terrorist activity along Israel's borders has in-
creased over the past two weeks. Last Saturday, an
Israeli officer and a fedayeen guerrilla died in a clash
on the Lebanese border. On Tuesday, Israeli border pa-
trols killed two infiltrators on the Lebanese border and
another near the southern frontier with Jordan.
ave intensified patrols, conducted shallow raids into
Lebanon, and continued shelling of suspected fedayeen
locations inside the Lebanese border.
Tuesday's incident on the Jordanian border was the
fourth in a month, after several years of relative quiet.
The Jordanians have increased their efforts to prevent
fedayeen infiltrations into Israel.
South of the Dead Sea, the Jordanians
ave increased the size of the border patrol force from
one company to two, and have begun helicopter patrols of
the entire area.
The Israelis have publicly maintained a low-key
attitude toward these violations on the Jordanian border.
Israeli Information Minister Yariv, in a radio interview
on September 29, said the Jordanians are attempting to
suppress terrorist activity and acknowledged there was
no complicity by Amman in the fedayeen penetrations.
The US embassy in Tel Aviv reports, however, that
despite their public posture, the Israelis are irritated
over the incidents on the Jordanian border and believe
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 3, 1974
that Amman could do more to prevent them. In a possible
expression of Tel Aviv's concern, Israeli aircraft flew
over Amman yesterday, creating sonic booms. Harsher
retaliatory reaction by the Israelis is unlikely unless
the fedayeen succeed in a spectacular incident involving
a number of Israeli deaths. In that case, public pressure
may force Tel Aviv to retaliate more forcefully.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 3, 1974
ITALY - UK - WEST GERMANY
Engine problems continue to trouble the European
Multi-Role Combat Aircraft. West German air force offi-
cers associated with the MRCA program recently told the
US defense attache in Bonn that the engines are deliver-
ing only 75 percent of their expected thrust. They note
that the airframe has been exceptionally stable in flight
and should perform well as a low-level, high-speed, weap-
ons-delivery platform, Nevertheless, one of the officers
remarked that unless the engine problems can be resolved,
the aircraft will be a "dog."
The federal cabinet has authorized an additional
$46 million for further preproduction development costs--
Bonn's 4205-percent share for the next phase of develop-
ment spending. The Bundestag finance committee is ex-
pected to confirm this decision. A government spokesman
emphasized, however, that the project still had not
reached a point of no return. The German air force es-
timates that the basic cost for each aircraft has risen
to about $8 million but that the price per plane will
reach nearly $14 million when fully equipped for combat.
The UK is expected to match West Germany's $46 mil-
lion for the next phase of development costs. The Ital-
ians are supposed to provide about $16 million for their
share, but reports suggest that Rome is considering pull-
ing out of the project completely.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 3, 1974
China's imports from the US will probably reach only
$800 million this year, down from earlier projections
of $1.1 billion because of an unexpected decline in the
amount of agricultural products to be delivered during
the fourth quarter.
Recent rescheduling and cancellation of contracts
caused the drop. Three contracts covering delivery in
1974 of about 1, million tons of wheat have been deferred
until 1975. A large contract for US soybeans has been
canceled, possibly because contamination was found in
earlier shipments.
Chinese imports from the US valued at $709 million
through August surpassed the $689 million total for the
same period in 1973. Exports to the US are expected, to
reach $100 million, up from $64 million last year.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
CAMBODIA
October 3, 1974
Tensions in Phnom Penh have eased somewhat as govern-
ment employees and military personnel have received pay
increases provided by the economic reform package intro-
duced last month.
Relief for the government may be short-lived. Pay
envelopes this week were particularly fat because they
contained lump sum salary adjustments retroactive to
September 10 By mid-month, however, consumers will face
the real impact of the sharply increased prices allowed
by the reforms.
The government has attempted to forestall any back-
lash from its dissolution of the teachers' association
.last week by announcing the formation of a new teachers'
organization under government sponsorship. Leftist
teachers are continuing their antigovernment activities,
however, and have issued statements scoring the police
raid on their headquarters and the subsequent arrest of
two teachers. Student activists are keeping uncharacter-
istically quiet They presumably are still planning anti-
government demonstrations for next week.
{
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