NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5
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December 21, 2016
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Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Top Secret ~. _ional Intelli~en~e lletin State Dept. review completed. DIA review completed. Top Secret N?_ 639 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1974 CONTENTS CHINA: Chou apparently recaver:~ng; political posi- tion unchanged. (Page 1) SOUTH KOREA - JAPAN: Seoul and Tokyo settle. EAST - WEST GERMANY: (Page 7) (Page Relations beginning to improve. 3) FRANCE: Review of defense policy continues. (Page 9) OPEC: Results of oil ministers' meeting in Vienna. Page 11) EC: Agriculture ministers still deadlocked. (Page 13) ROMANIA: Party program widens gap between Bucharest and Moscow. (Page 14) NORTH KOREA: Pyongyang looks to West for machinery and equipment. (Page 20) ETHIOPIA: Labor unionists join students in ciemanding civilian participation. (Page 21) CUBA: Economy in best shape since Castro as:~umed power. (Page 25) ARGENTINA: Violence increases. (Page 2.6) FOR THE RECORD : (P age 2 8 ) Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1974 Chinese remarks to foreign visitors and domestic media treatment of Chou En-lai's illness seem to be try- ing to convey the message--both at home and abroad-- that Chou has indeed been very ill, that he is new re- covering, and that he has not been shunted aside polit- ically. Chinese officials told visiting Nigerian. Presi- dent Gowon that Chou has had an operation but is now "recuperating well." as a result of his latest bout of illness, Chou is performing very few, if any, duties during his convalescence. His last public appearance, on July 31, reportedly was made against his doctors' orders, and his consistent failure over the last few months to follow his doctors' advice has undoubtedly contributed t:o his medical problems. This time, his doctors are liA:ely to be more insistent that Chou not resume any activities until they have decided that he has recovered sui`fi- ciently . Chows name continues to appear on messages sent to foreign countries, and the domestic media coni:inue to replay the remarks of visiting dignitaries wi.~hing Chou a speedy recovery. Two visiting heads of si:ate, in their toasts to Chinese leaders, inserted the word "respected?' before Chou's name, an honor not eve n accorded Mao. .This was presumably done with the ap- proval of Chinese officials, but the practice wa;a not repeated by the visiting Mauritanian president. Whether or not Chou will again tackle many-?-al- though almost certainly not all--of his duties a:~ premier and senior vice chairman of the party will ob- viously depend on the further progress of hi.s il:Lness. A partial recovery from the heart condition which has presently incapacitated him is possible, but little is directly known about the complications that have ap- parently again confined him to bed. References ley Chi- nese officials to party Central Committee concern that Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence bulletin September 20, 1974 Chou pace himself better in the future suggest that at: this juncture at least the hierarchy in Peking hopes and perhaps expects that Chou will continue to be an impor- tant factor in the decision--making process? Chinese media have recently on occasion linked Chows name with .those of aging leaders Mao and the 87- year-old acting head of state Tung Pi-wu. This has led some foreign observers--and some Chinese as well--to suggest that Chou should now be regarded as a party elder, greatly respected, but out of the direct line of authority. If Chou lingers on, alive but essentially incapacitated, this state of affairs will obviously come to pass, but the coupling of Chou's name with that of Tung Pi-wu is not unique, and no clear pattern of linking the Premier with honorary elders has yet been established. Mao, although. reclusive for over a decade, remains at the core of Chinese politics, and so long as he is not permanently hospitalized, Chou is likely to retain a large measure of influence even if he shou:Ld delegate most of his day-to--day duties on a permanent basis. Some of Chou's influence, however, derives di- rectly from his unmatched capacity to manage the de- tailed problems of running the Chinese bureaucracy. Even in the event of a partial recovery, this aspect of his authority is certain to be diluted. In the meantime, Chou's representational duties continue to be divided abou-L: equally between vice premiers Teng Hsiao--ping and Li Hsien-nien,o Recent television coverage of Mao warmly shaking hands with each of them suggests that they both have i:he Chairman?s approval. Neither is likely to press for substantial changes in current Chinese domestic and foreign policies i n the event Chou is permanently incapacitated. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Na~tic~nel Intelligence Bulletin September ~;0, 1974 The arrival of a special Japanese envoy in :~eoul yesterday officially resolved the sharpest and longest dispute between Seoul and Tokyo since the two esi:ablished ties in 1965, In settling the controversy, Tokyo went a long way to meet insistent Korean demands. The special e3zvoy brought President Pak Chong-hui both a personal :Letter from Prime Minister Tanaka and assurances--riegot:Lated in advance--that Tokyo accepted a degree of responsibil- ity for the assassination in Seoul last month an~i would curb anti-Pak Korean activists in Japan. A compromise was struck on language referring to Chosen Soren, the pro-Pyongyang group in Korea that Seoul wanted e:icplicitly condemned. Both Seoul and Tokyo have acknowledged pub- licly that U5 mediation played an important role in bring- ing about a settlement. President Pak this week provided the US ambassador in Seoul with some additional insight into Korean objec- tives in the recent dispute. Emphasizing hi.s deep con- cern over what he described as a leftward trend in Japan over the past two or three years, Pak pointed out the potential danger to South Korea if this continued and Tokyo adopted neutralist or pro-Communist policies. Pak's remarks reinforce the view that Seoul's heavy- handed anti-Japanese campaign of recent weeks cannot be explained fully by Korean emotional and domestic factors, but that it was also a deliberate attempt by Pak to check a policy drift in Tokyo, including moves toward Pyongyang, at least until Seoul can shore up its own international standing. A question being pondered now in both Seoul and Tokyo is what impact the dispute will have on future relations.. The fact that Tokyo has gone far to accom- modate Pak's demands has probably encouraged him. to be- lieve in the effectiveness of tough tactics in dealing with the Japanese. In his talk with the US ambassador, Pak gave the impression that he took satisfaction from the latest turn of events. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 25X1 National Intelligence bulletin September 20, 1974 In Tokyo, there is no doubt that the recent con- troversy, at least over the near term, ha:c resulted in greater Japanese sensitivity to South KorE:an interests. Japanese diplomats have recently told US and Canadian officials that Tokyo places a high priority on. improving relations with Seoul, whic}1 have deteriorated over the past year. The Japanese say that any rapproch.e.nent with North Korea will have to be very gradual and can only take place during a period of good Seoul-Tokyo relations. Still, over the long term, there is ]Little room for optimism that the path of Seoul-Tokyo relations wi?11 be smooth. Korean-Japanese animosities a~?e deeply rooted, and there is likely to be :lingering reseniyment: in Tokyo for some time over recent Korean pressure tactics and the events of the past year. At some future date, Tokyo may prove unwilling to continue the sort of special re?- lationship which Seoul feels it needs whi:Le still facing Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Q Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 25X1 National Intelligence bulletin September 20, 1974 Signs of a thaw in East - West German relations are evident for the first time since the Guillaume s~~y case of last May. Although major obstacles still remain, both sides now appear interested in improved cooperation. East German interest took a more concrete f arm in talks earlier this week. In a meei~ing with West German mission chief Gaus in East Berlin on September 16, East German party chief Honecker reportedly proposed that negotiations get under way on a number of outstanding bilateral issues, including agreements on culture, postal services, and legal assistance. To launch this new move- ment, Honecker said his government would be willing to eliminate, within the next three weeks, the compulsory currency exchange requirement for old-age pensioners wishing to visit East Germany. Pankow's move last No- vember to double the minimum amount of money that visi- tors mush change into East German currency cut signifi- cantly into the number of visitors, particularly from West Berlin. Bonn has tried for several months to achieve a relaxation of this requirement. The reported offer falls short of the West German objective, however, be- cause it rescinds the requirement only for old-age pen- sioners . West German leaders, including Chancellor Schmidt, are reported to be happy with the East German offer. It has, however, run into opposition from West Berlin Govern- ing Mayor Schuetz, who argues that Bonn must hold out for the elimination of the currency requirement for all visi- tors to East Germany. Despite its shortcomings, this latest step by Pan- kow should prove encouraging to the West Germans. Chan- cellor Schmidt has recently given several hints of a positive West German at.'titude toward inter-German ?~ela- tions, but he has pointed out that he cannot alcne change the climate resulting from t`he Guillaume affair. 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1974 There may be a number of reasons for this shift. U5 embassy sources believe Schmidt may have begun to realize that some East German concessions on inter-German issues could, if handled properly, be useful to his gov- ernment. These sources feel that Schmidt must also allow for the continuing strong interest in Ostpoli.tik of the Brandt wing of his party. East Germany stands t:o gain substantially if it can obtain West German technology and a renewal of the swing credit. In addition, the Soviets could k~e encouraging East Germany to sustain West German interest in detente, particularly in view of Chancellor 5chmidt's visit to the Soviet Union, scheduled for late next month. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence bulletin september 20, 19x4 The French government :~,s cont:i..nuing the defer.~.se re- view begun by President G:~.scard last month. Various policies reportedly are under consideration, but con- tinued economic, social, and political problems at: home will make it difficult for Discard to make major defense policy changes . In a wide-ranging d.scussi.on with departing ambas- sador Irwin, French Defense Minist~.er Soufflet claimed he is ready to talk with the US about defense, inclucii.ng tactical nuclear weapons, even though the French defense review wi:11 probably contanue to year"s end. Key sub- jects probably still under study a.re armaments produc- tion, nuclear policy, European defense, conscript~..on problems, and cond:it.ions associated with military serv- ice. Soufflet predicted that G:iscard will propose to hi.s European allies that some form of European defense cooperation be cons:tde.red~ Problems, of economic and political unity and a desire for continued US engagement in European defense will probably make this unatt::cactive to France's allies., Paris m:~.ght propose a plan fc~r lo- cating its Pluton tactical missi:ies with. i.ts army corps in West Germany, but. concern over Bonn's demand t~~ have a say in employment, and Soviet objections, make -this un- likely for the present In order to gain advantage in the European arms market., France may well increase its efforts to inte- grate European weapons manufacture. If no other alter- native is available, Paris may eventually opt to consider limited participation in the Eurogroup for this purpose. Closer cooperation with NATO allies may come in the form of greater willingness t.o coordi.nat.e exercises and plans, Soufflet admitted he could :imagi.ne contingency planning for NATO lines of communication acrass France. He stressed, however, that, no US troops could be stationed there . Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence bulletin SeptE~mber 20, 1974 Soufflet has announced reforms designed to improve the lot of servicemen and induce greater support among French youth, but recent demonstrations against national service and service conditions will certainly prompt further study of this probleme The 12-moni_h term of service will probably not h~+ reduced at this time. -1C1?- Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 IVationai Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1974 At their conference in Vienna last week, the oil ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to freeze posted prices, but to raise the, taxes paid by the international oil companies. De- pending on how each of the OPEC members implement: the tax increase, the average cost of oil to the comp~~nies is expected to increase between 40 and 50 cents pE~r barrel. The ministers made an effort to convince the con- suming nations that the increase in taxes could came out of oil company profits and should not result in higher oil prices to the consumer. It is unlikely that -the companies will absorb much of the increase. If the companies pass on the full tax increase, the oil bill far consuming countries will rise by bet`aeen $4.4 billion and $5.5 billion annually. The increase for major oil-consuming countries would be as fol.Lows: (Million U5 $) US 900--1,130; Japan 775-970; LJK 33:5--420; West Germany 450?560; France 410-510; and Italy 2".ap-360. The ministers also decided that:, beginning i:n Jan- uary 1975, the rate of inflation in the industrialized countries will be taken into account in setting oil prices. This action would preclude any easing of the burden of oil prices as a result of continuing would inflation. The OPEC ministers agreed on little else at 'Vienna. Some of the more contentious issues like managing pro- duction cuts and schemes to establish a single price for oil were referred to working groups in preparation for the December OPEC meeting. The prorationing issue was particularly touchy. Iran's representative, Amouzegar, was opposed to any scheme that could r~lquire his country to cut production. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Nati?n~l IntelligE'ncE'. bulletin September 20, 197 Saudi-oil minister Yamani was odd man out in Vienna, just as he was at Quito in ;July. He' refused to g? along with the other members? plans to .increase oil revenues by raising company taxes. :Cnstead, he indicated that the Saudis had increased rytheir revenuesA by rai"sing "the buy- back price of government-owned oil to nearly 95 percent of posted price--the buyback price for most of the Gulf countries being 9"3 percent. If the Saudis stick to triis formula, they will be receiving at least 20 cents per barrel less than other OPEC members. Yamani probably was posturing, publicly choosing a smaller price increase while knowing that the Saudis would later insist that Aramco pad Saudi Arabia at least as much per barrel as other Gulf producers are getting. Aramco will doubtless price its oil wiirh this in mind. In any case, the Saudis apparently plan to take 100-percent control of the company next month and to introduce a :new pricing system. Despite a production cutback of 300,000 barrels per day in Abu Dhabi, the world oil surplus still ex- ceeds a million barrels a day. At the OPEC conference, a number of countries reportedly announced decisions to cut production, but no details are available. If the initiative to re~.uce liftin.gs is left to the companies, the cuts would fall, most heavily on high-priced buyback oil. Most affected would be those Arab countries that have already borne the brunt of the cutbacks--Kuwait Abu Dhabi, and Libya. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 I I National I ntelligenCe E3ulletin September 2 0 , 19 ~ ~ Political repercussions from failure to res~~lve dis- agreements over EC farm policy would be so serio7~s that the agricultural ministers' meeting now under wasr in Brussels is continuing at unprecedented length. In an attempt to break the deadlock, the ministers have called on their technical experts to work up a package ~~f com- promise measures. The common agricultural policy, which is one of the principal pillars of the Community, has been wea'~.ened considerably over the past year as a number of member countries have sought to protect their farm interests through national policies. Costs of fertilizer, farm machinery, and fuel have skyrocketed, but prices paid to farmers have not kept pace. In same cases, beef and pork for example, prices have fallen. The resulting farmer unrest has created heavy pressure for remedial action. The EC Commission has proposed a number of measures aimed at helping the farmers, including a 4-percent hike in farm support prices and a 7.5-percent devaluation of the special currency exchange rate used to calculate prices for British and Irish agricultural produce. West Germany and Denmark oppose the 4-percent increase in support prices because of its inflationary impact, while France and Belgium want a boost of at least 8 percent. London wants the British and Irish exchange rates to remain on a par, at the present level to maintain British farmers? competitive position and hold down domestic food prices. Ireland, however, is demanding a 15-percent devaluation o.f the Irish rate in the hope of raising its farm incomes. Disagreements also remain over th.e solu- tion of Britain's sugar shortage and the legality under the common agricultural policy of measures taken by France and Belgium to aid their :farmers . The Council meeting was originally sch.edu.lE~d to end yesterday, but the ministers appear willing to continue until agreement is reached on the major issues. Latest indications are that the meeting will continue ttoday. 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence Bulletin September 20 , 19 74 The new Romanian party program codifies Bucharest's National Communist Course and challenges the Kremlin's claim to be the sole authority of Marxism-.Leninism. The program widens the gap between Moscow and Bucharest, and leaves Romania open to charges of pursuing a "re- visionist" and "national Communist" course. The cardinal Leninist tenet of a world divided into capitalist and socialist camps is rejected. Instead, the Romanian program contends it is necessary to recog- nize that the world is made up of developed, developing, and undeveloped nations. This formulation runs counter to Soviet doctrine by taking a non-class approach to political groupings and moves Bucharest closer to the views of Peking and the nonaligned states. It implicitly lumps the Soviet Union wit=h the developed capitalist states . The program reasserts past Romanian positions, thus confirming Bucharest's parting of ideological company with the Soviets by: --Criticizing the Sirio-Soviet dispute as harmful to socialism and pledging the Romanian party to act with all "determi_nation" to surmount differ- ences between socialist states. --Describing the "not:ion" as an abiding and en- during force, one of Ceausescu's favorite themes that leaves Bucharest vulnerab le to charges of "bourgeois nationaliti.m.'? --Asserting that socialist, as well as capitalist, societies contain "inner contradict:ions," a view similar to Chinese formulations. The program criticizes the socialist movement (read Moscow) for seeing all parties in the same light without recognizing the special needs of each in its development. The document: also asserts that integration Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence bulletin September ~;0, 1974 can be achieved only when equal levels of develo~~ment have been reached by all socialist countries. Fi.na~ly, the program pays lip service to the "humanist purposes" of society, a subject conspicuously avoided elseti~here in the Saviet camp since Dubcek's Czechoslovakia.. The program is to be formally adopted at thE: party congress in late November. In the meantime, nationwide debates and discussions are to be held to educatE: the ublic and to drum u support for the program. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Q Next 3 Page(s) In Document Denied Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1974 North Korea has quietly turned to the West as a major source for its modern machinery and equipment. This deliberate shift in policy will reduce Pyongyang?s long-standing dependence on the USSR and other Communist countries for capital equipment. Since 1970, the North Koreans have :signed contracts with firms in Japan and Western Europe for mare than $500 million worth of industrial plants and related equipment. If current negotiations are successful, the total could reach $1 billion within the next year or two. North Korea has been able to diversify i.ts sources of capital goods because of the willingness of the Japa- nese and West Europeans to finance plant sales through medium-term credits. As a result of this sort of financ- ing for capital imports as well as for record grain im- ports, North Korea ran a trade deficit with non-Communist trading partners of almost. $170 million last year. This was the first time North Korea's trade dE.fici.t with non- communist countries surpassed that with Communist coun- tries. North Korea's total trade last yE~ar with all non- communist partners was $400 million. The aims of the plant. import program are to develop export-oriented industries and to strengi~hen industries producing agricultural supplies, processed foods, and consumer manufactures. P~ajor installations Pyongyang has purchased in Western :Europe include a petrochemical complex, a fertilizer plant, a refractory plant, and equipment for the metals .industry. Japan sold a cement plant, a textile spinning mill, a polyesi;er fiber plant, a vinylon plant, and other installations? The North Koreans have attempted through. third parties to buy US equipment; they seemed particularly Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Natienal Intelligence Bulletin ETHIOPIA September ~.0, 1974 Ethiopian labor unionists have joined studen-~s in demanding the end of military rule and the format:Lon of a broadly based government in which civilians would share power. The military responded to these demands bar threat- ening to use force if labor and students challenge mili- tary rule. The Confederation of Ethiopian Labor Unions ~.dopted a resolution early this week that criticized the ;provi- sional military government's ban on strikes and called for an immediate end to military rule. In only slightly veiled terms, the resolution threatened a general strike if the military closed down the confederation's head- quarters. The labor group is probably also concerned about the fate, now that th.e military has dissolved par- liament, of the new labor law promised to the confedera- tion earlier this year in return for_ ending a general strike. On Wednesday, the ruling military committee pub- licly castigated the labor leaders and promised swift action against anyone opposing the programs of the new government. University and secondary students, meanwhile, met with members of the military committee in the aftermath of Monday's student sit-ins and meetings. The military is reported to have appealed to the students to ~.upport its programs, but warned them of its willingness to use force if they took to the streets. The students subse- quently held another large meeting at which stud~:nt leaders reiterated their earlier demands for the im- mediate end to military rule and called for the ~iuthor- ization of political parties and civil liberties. In the face of opposition from students and their teacher allies, the military has still not deterrlined whether to press on with its plan to send most uriiver-- sity students to the countryside to provide the ~~easants with literacy training and indoctrination on the ntili? tary's programs. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence l~~lletin September zo, 1974 Increasing civilian pressure on the mil.i,tary occurs at a time when divisions besetting the military committee appear to have sharpened. These include a split between those who favor the swift adoption of far~re:aching polit?~ ical and social changes and an early trial of the former emperor and those who favor a slower pace toward consti- tutional civilian rule and want to protect I~iaile Selassie. -The head of the provisional military gr~vernment~. General Aman, sides with the latter faction, but his power relative to the military committee remains unclear? According to a source of the U5 defense attache in Addis Ababa, Aman's opponents on the committee believe he has expanded his influence at their expense The source also reports that Aman is resisting the role of mere front man and is attempting to assert his dominance over the committee. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 25X1 i i M CUBA: FOREIGN TRADE ioo~~~ Non- communist Countries Other Communist Countries 1974 Projected 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 1~lation~l inteliigenoo Bulletin September ~!0, 1974 Cub a?s economic situation has brightened dramatically this year because of an improved sugar harvest of 6 mil- lion tons, a tripling in world sugar prices to mcxse than 30 cents a pound, and greatly increased economic ~~ssist- ance from Free World countriesN The gains have put the Cuban economy on the soundest footing since Castro took over o Export earnings. almost all fram sugare should jump more than 65 percent, to $2~2 billion in 19744 Mere than $1 billion will be realized fram the sale of 35 percent of the sugar crop to non-Communist countries/ com;oared with $320 million in 1973 The remainder of the crop is being sold to tze Com- munist countries, principally the USSR, for :12 cents a poundo The Sov~.ets are expected to adjust the price to 20 cents, probably in 1975 Cuba, however, would not come out ahead if Havana were forced to pay world market prices f.or Soviet oil, as seems likely Increased imports from Free World countries this year will give a large lift: to the economy and go a long way toward erasing the lingering effects of the US denial programo Cuba is going to get. several thousand U5-designed automobiles and trucks under a $1?2a~billion Argentine trade credit Credit purchases of Canadian locomotives an c. coastal tankers and Peruvian fishing vessels will provide further benefits Free World economic assistance over the next, sev- eral years probably w~..11 average about $250 mill~..on, or one half of recent, annual disbursements from the Commu- nist countriesm Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 National Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1974 ARGENTINA The government of President Peron has yet to find a formula to stem violence as extremists on the right and left of the Peronist movement continue their politi- cal fratricide. Sa.nce the Montonero guerrillas broke with the gov- ernment two weeks ago, bo~r~k~ings and assassinations have taken a quantum jump. So far, the wave of violence has included over a hundred bombings and nearly a dozen killings. Yesterday, Juan and Jorge Born, two of Argen- tina's most prominent businessmen, were kidna~?ed by terrorists in spite of the fact that they were surrounded by bodyguards. Earlier this week, representatives of Peronist work- ers met with a number of leftist and Marxist union lead- ers in the provincial city of Tucuman and announced the formation of an organization to rival the orthodox Peron- ist labor confederation. Although the new grouping does not yet include national-level unions, it does create an important nucleus of anti-government sentiment that could cause serious problems for Mrs. Peron. The poor performance of police in dealing with the terrorists has increased tYae prospect that the military will be forced to take a more active role, especially now that Peronist extremists have stepped up their ac: -26- Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 .. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 I I Nati?nal Intelligence Bulletin September 20, 1974 The struggle against the terrorists is likely to be fierce, however, especially if the Monto:neros coordi- nate operations with the Marxist Peoples Revolutionary Army. If public order breaks down completely oz if Mrs. Peron shows signs of wavering, military leaders ultimately may demand a more active and open role in the political process. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 25X1 ~ ~ ~c"~~~Ot"'Mc']~ It"1tE:~ll~~ll~@ ~1.1~~4t111 September 20, 1974 Turkey: Turkey is purchasing 20 F-1045 aircraft, produced in Italy under US license, to replace aging F-84s in tactical and air defense roles. Turkey has 38 F-104G aircraft in its inventory. DeliveY~y of the fas- ter and more versatile F-1045 fighter and including two trainer models will be at a rate of six per month; the initial delivery date is not known. The Turkish air force was upgraded by delivery of the first two of 40 US-made F-4E aircraft in late Au ust and i ne otiati,n for the purchase of 20 more. Approved For Release 2008/08/08: CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5 Top Secret Top Secret Approved For Release 2008/08/08 :CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010006-5