NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027000010004-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Sequence Number: 4
• Content Type: REPORT

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National 1 retell igen~ce
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed.
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Natic.~nal Intelligence Bulietin
September 19, 1.974
CONTENTS
TURKEY: Ecevit seeks new coalition. (Page L)
OAS: Resolution to reconsider sanctions aga:~rzst
Cuba to be discussed today. (Page 3)
EC: Heads of government meet. (Page 4)
UK: Party manifestos circulated in preparat:Lon far
election on October 10. (Page 6)
UK: Sugar shortage worsens; likely to be political
issue. (Page 8)
BOLIVIA-USSR: Banzer seeks renewal of Soviet arms
offer. Page 9)
EC - ARAB STATES: Negotiations far new preferential
trade agreements likely to begin early next ?~ear.
(Page 12 )
FOR THE RECORD: (Page .13)
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N~tlOr'1a~ ~t'1`~e~flC~@IIC~ BI.Jf~E:~lt'1 September 19, 1974
TURKEY.
President Koruturk accepted Prime Minister Ecevit's
resignation yesterday and has asked him to continue in
office until a new government. can be formed.
The President has begun consulting with political
party heads. Once this process .is completed, Koruturk
will, in all likelihood, appoint Ecev:i.t to form another
government.? Ecevit's Repub lican People's Party has the
largest representation i.n the 450-seat parliament, al-
though i.t falls 41 votes short. of a majority.
Ecevit has already discussed with the Democratic
Party leader the possibility o.f formi:ng a coalition..
Ecevit told U5 Ambassador Macomber that a coalition. with
the Democrats was "likely, although not cer.tain." Demo-
cratic Party leaders have indicated ghat they favor
Ecevi.t's plan for holding early elections, and if they
agree to form a coalition, Ecevit would have a narrow
majority in the parliament. Ecevit said he would know
more about the prospects for a coalition and assemk~ly
approval for December elections after Democratic P~~rty
leader Bozbeyli had taken a sounding of his party.
If Ecevit fails to organize a coalition that would
give h.im a majority, the President could ask him to try
to lead a minority government, or he could ask ,another
political leader to form a government. In a press con-
ference yesterday, Ecevit's former coalition partnE~r.,
National 5alvati.on Party leader Erbakan, said that a
rightist coalition composed of his party, the ,Tust~Lce
Party, and the Democratic Party was a strong possibility,
The. rightist Democrats would be more comfortable ideo-
logically with the Justice Party than with the moderately
left.i.st Ecevit, but after the elections last October they
refused to join such an alliance unless Demirel stepped
down a.s Justice Party .leader.
Ecevit told Ambassador Macomber that it might take
three to four weeks to form a new government, but as-
sured him that this would not inhibit. Turkish policy
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 19, 1974
regarding Cyprus. He said that even the matter of mak-
ing concessions in order to reach a political settlement
could be handled during an election campaign.
There seems little doubt, however, than Ecevit's
leadership on the Cyprus issue will be affected and that,
during a campaign, concessions would be harder to make.
Even the Greeks have concluded that Cyprus will take a
back seat to politics in Turkey now, and the Karamanlis
government reportedly is even more eager than before to
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National Intelligene~ B~Iletin September l9 ~ 1974
OAS
The resolution to reconsider sanctions against Cuba
will be discussed today at a meeting of the permanent
council_o Practically no opposition to raising the ques~
tion has developed,
A debate is likely to ensue concerning the terms of
reference drafted by the three fore:i.gn ministers sponsor-
ing the motion, The resolution offered by Costa Rica,
Venezuelan and Colombia evades the :issue of Cuban sub?
version? presenting the ease in terms of a?international
political circumstances~~" Colombian despite its desire
to open diplomatic ~.ines to Cuba,; is not convinced that
the Castro regime has terminated its support for revolu-~
tionaries abroad and does not wish to address that prok~-
lem? Others fear that Castro will react to any new OAS
effort to hold him up to judgment and set back all prog?
ress toward normalization of Cuba?s place in the hemis~
pheren
Not alT the OAS delegates are :ready to buy this fim
nesseo BrazilL? Chi1e~ Uruguay,; and Bolivia have all
noted the draftu s failure to raise 'the question of Cuban
subversion and will present amendments Their sL.ccess
wi"11 depend on what manner of voting is adopte d The
original sponsors are likely to try some procedural
legerdemain to vote down the amendments
~dhatever terms of reference are finally endc~rsed~
the vote to examine the issue seems assure do A foreign
ministers? meeting to take the final tally for ar.d
against continuing the sanctions wi.11 robabl be: sched-
uled for some time in November 25X1
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 19, 1974
The informal six-hour meeting of EC heads of govern-
ment in Paris last Saturday ranged over a number of the
major issues preoccupying the Community and restored
some momentum after the summer break in activity. The
Nine now expect to hold such informal meetings three or
four times a year.
A prime topic was the need to streamline EC insti-
tutions. Tentative agreement seems to have been reached
to establish a mobile secretariat for the Nine's polit-
ical consultations that would provide sta:Ef support to
the country holding the EC presidency. The Italians
note that a roving secretariat would lack the continuity
furnished by a central permanent base, but the decision
is nevertheless important because it brealcs a long im-
passe. The French and the other EC members have dis-
agreed for same years over whether a secretariat should
be located in Paris or Brussels.
Discussion of the always controversial common ag-
ricultural policy took up considerable time at the Paris
meeting, but apparently resulted in no firm decision on
either long- or short-term policy. Chancellor Schmidt
recommended that unilateral national measures affecting
agriculture should be abolished and proposed serious
stocktaking of the whole policy. Further exchanges
among the Nine on the common agricul ural policy are
continuing at a three-day meeting of the EC agricultural
ministers that began Tuesday in Brussels. The European
Parliament, with an eye to farmer unrest, recommended
in a special session on Monday that .the ministers should
increase agricultural support prices by 6 percent., a
move that would discourage those EC members who are
particularly concerned about inflation.
_q_
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 19, 1974
The perennially difficult French attitude toward
EC cooperation was submerged at the Paris meeting, where
President Giscard sought the advice of other EC n~.embers
on the chances for a successful full-fledged sumtr~it late
this year. On Monday, however, at a meeting of E'C fi-
nance ministers, French Finance Minister Fourcade. pre-
sented sweeping proposals without prior consultation
with the Commission, and afterwards briefed the ~~ress
exclusively on French views, which he couched in gran-
diose terms. This revived memories of the De GaLille
era, according to Brussels officials. There is c~eneral
recognition that neither the traditional French ~~ttitudes
nor other EC problems are subject to quick salut~.ons.
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National Intelligence bulletin September 19, 1974
On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Harold Wilson
set the national election date for October 10. At this
point, the Labor government is given a slight edge by
most public opinion polls,
The long-awaited announcement followed publication
of the Labor, Conservative, and Liberal party manifestos.
Mud-slinging accusations are conspicuously absent from
the manifestos. The campaign tone is somber as all
three parties focus on Britain's serious economic prob-
lems.
Labor's domestic program offers few surprises.
It calls for redistribution of national wealth and ex-
panded state ownership of industry, but offers no pro-
posals for tackling inflation beyond the "social con-
tract" concept of voluntary wage and pricE: control and
the party's presumed ability to secure industrial peace.
Pointing out the inherent weakness in a coalition gov-
ernment, the Labor Party stresses the need for strong,
decisive policies to cope with the nation's economic
ills. Wilson continues to rule out participation in a
coalition government.
The Tory manifesto leaves the coalition question
open and, in an appeal for national unity, pledges con-
sultation with other part leaders if a Conservative
government is formed.
Conservatives promise increased pen-
sion benefits, government assistance in training union
officers, and greater recognition of strikers' rights,
The Tory anti-inflation program includes control of the
money supply, as urged by shadow Home Secretary Sir
Keith Joseph, as well as restraint in public spending
and in wage and price demands.
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I~latianal Intelligence bulletin September la, 1974
tion of such social programs as the redistribution of
national wealth, a review of electoral processes, and
Campaigning on a note of realism, the Liberals have
agreed to consider joining in a coalition government.
Their economic program admits that the government will
need to reinstitute unpopular mandatory wage and price
controls to curb inflation. But Liberals urge the adop-
introduction of power-sharing in industry before statu-
tory wade and price controls are applied.
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National Intelligence bulletin
September 19, 1974
A severe shortage of s~a~gar has led to panic hoard-
ing and voluntary rationing of available stocks by deal-
erso Tight supplies worldwide and a bad sugar beet crop
at home have aggravated British sugar problems, but Brit-
ish entry into the EC, which requa~red that preferential.
agreements with Commonwealth countries be ;phased out,
accounts for much of the shortage?
Prior to entering the FaC, the UK relied on a Common-
wealth Sugar Agreement, which provided fixed import quotas
at guaranteed prices, to meet two thirds of domestic con-
sumptions The developing countries of the Commonwealth
provided 1.4 mil-lion tons annually, while Australia and
South Africa shipped another. 300,000 tons under the
quota system.
Since EC policy provides subsidies to EC sugar pro-
ducers and limits sugar imports, Britain is obliged to
phase out its import quotas by the end of ?this year,
With only flimsy- assurances of long-term EC contracts
after this year, Britain's traditional suppliers have
been diverting their sugar to wox?ld markets, where it
commands prices up to four times higher than the guar-
anteed British prices
The possibility that the US will suspend its import
quotas before the end of 1974 has heightened British
worries of further diversions of Commonwealth sugar,
A poor sugar beet harvest at home will cast the UK an
additional 200,000 tons of sugar this year, boosting the
total shortfall in supplies to almost 20 percent of
annual consumption.
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National Intelligence Bt.~lletin September 19 ? 1974
fixed prices with Australia. This move is to be d~~-
cussed at the special meeting of EC actricultural mir~is-
London is considering signing a long-term contract pct
The British are prepared to challenge the EC agree-
ments and re-establish traditional trade agreements, if
necessary, to get enough sugar to satisfy British needs.
ters now under way in Brussels.
BOLIVIA-USSR
Bolivian President Banzer, apparently disappointed
by the US response to his requests for military equ~_pment,
is looking with greater es at a Soviet arms o~?fer
made earlier this e ar.
Banzer
might use a Soviet offer as additional pressure on ':he
U5. However, one f actor that may prompt Moscow to aCt
cautiously in approving an arms sale to Bolivia is a:h.e
effect such a move might have on Peru,
Spurred by the mounting tension between neighboring
Chile and Peru, and the arms buildup by those c~oun.tries,
La Paz has been seeking to upgrade its ground force inven-
tories. Bolivia's ground forces equipment presently con-
sists of 10 US M3A1 tanks received from Venezuela earlier
this vPar_. 53 armored vehiclesn and 24 75-mm. howitzers.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 19 , 1974
During EC Commissioner Cheysson's visit to Cairo
early this month., the Egyptians asked for a general
cooperation agreement that would go well beyond the lim-
ited preferential trade agreement now in force. Egypt
wants to be included in the EC's Mediterranean policy and
to negotiate a preferential agreement along the lines of
the arrangements the EC is working on with the Maghreb,
Malta, Spain, and Israel.
Cheysson noted Egypt"s strong interest in industrial
cooperation with Europe. He believes that some mechanism
will be needed to provide for an exchange of information
in this field and for effective consultation between the
EC and Egypt. Otherwise, overproduction and market flood-
ing in particular products might well lead to political
backlash and protectionismo
Cheysson wants to have negotiations with the Maghreb,
Malta, Spain, and Israel well in hand before beginning
formal talks with Egypt and with Syria, Jordan, and .Leba-
non as well. He believes this condition will be met soon,
and that serious negotiations can begin in early 1975.
The negotiations would be keyed toward preferential econ-
omic arrangements like the other agreements under the
Mediterranean policy, rather than formal association agree-
ments such as those with Greece and Turkey.
Negotiations far market access to tYie EC by Egypt,
Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon will receive a boost from the
EC-Arab dialogue, which is intended to provide a broad
framework for relations between Western Europe and the
Arab states. In the case of the major A~:ab oil producers,
this multilateral effort may be overshadowed by indepen-
dent jockeying for long-term oil supplies and for recycled
petrodollars. The next official step in the dialogue is
a meeting of representatives of the EC and Arab League
presidencies with EC Commission and Arab League secretar?
iat officials in Cairo in mid-October to prepare for a
broader general committee meeting in November, which
the nine EC countries and many of the 20 members of
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 National Intelligence bulletin September 19, 1974
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the Arab League would attend. To create a favorable
atmosphere for continuation of the dialogue, French
Foreign Minister Sauvagnargues has invited the foreign
ministers of the Nine and their Arab counterparts 'to a
social luncheon in New York on September 25 in honor of
new UN Assembly President Bouteflika.
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China: Peking is preparing to join major iriterna-
tiona civil aviation organizations within the nE:xt few
months. For some time, China has been upgrading ground
navigation equipment at major airports to meet Ixiterna-
tional Civil Aviation Organization standards. The Boeing
707s recently acquired by China are equipped with instru-
mentation specified by ICAO. Additional equipment has
been purchased for the Tridents already in the C~iinese
inventory. China also may join the Internationa:L Air
Transport Association, a commercial organization pr-
marily concerned with rate setting for intex?natieanal
air services. In both cases, the withdrawal of `Paiwan
from these orcanizations will facilitate China's member-
ship.
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