CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010050-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 22, 2006
• Sequence Number: 50
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
EMANAM M- -a
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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
19 August 1974
N2 633
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Jational Intelligence Bulletin
August 19, 1974
CONTENTS
GREECE-TURKEY-CYPRUS: Turkish forces continued to
expand their holdings over the weekend. (Page 1)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Sharp fighting still going on in
northern provinces and in areas near Saigon. (Page 5)
KOREA-JAPAN: Seoul charges that Pyongyang's President
Kim personally ordered assassination attempt on Pres-
ident Pak; incident could worsen Seoul's relations
with Tokyo. (Page 6)
THAILAND: The attempt to fashion a constitutional
government is still on course, if not on schedule.
(Page 9)
ETHIOPIA: Armed Forces Coordinating Committee demon-
strates support for Emperor Haile Selassie and Prime
Minister Mikael.` (Page 11)
USSR: Cosmos 672, an unmanned Ssyuz, returned
yesterday after six days in orbit. (Page 12)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 13)
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National Intelligence Bulletin , August 19, 1974
Turkish forces continued to expand their holdings
on Cyprus over the weekend. Advances beyond the terri-
tory the Turks have demanded for an autonomous Turkish
Cypriot area are probably intended to force the Greeks
to the negotiating table.
Yesterday, fighting continued southeast of Nicosia
as the.Turks advanced to within eight miles of the port
city of Larnaca. Turkish units also threatened to cut
the road between Nicosia and Limassol--the last major
route south from the capital city.
In other areas of the island, Turkish army and Cyp-
riot forces continued operations on the Karpas peninsula,
reaching Galinoporni over the weekend. In the west, fight-
ing continued near Kokkina, and Greek National Guard
units maintained pressure on Turkish enclaves in the
area. The cease-fire continued to be observed in Nicosia,
and UN forces remained in control of the international
airport.
UN representative Weckman has suggested to the US
ambassador that it might now be more realistic to drop
the concept of another Geneva meeting of the guarantor
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 19, 1974
powers, and encourage negotiations in Nicosia between
Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash. In such
an arrangement the Turkish side might also include mili-
tary and diplomatic representatives from Ankara.
The US embassy in Nicosia comments that at a mini-
mum Clerides must be given some kind of authorization
from Athens and be assured that he will not be branded
a traitor when the outcome of the talks buries once and
for all the idea of enosis .
Developments in Greece
The Greek decision to withdraw from the NATO inte-
grated military command is firm, according to Defense
Minister Averoff, who said he was reporting the view of
Prime Minister Karamanlis. Averoff told the US ambassa-
dor that his government recognized the complexities of
the disengagement process and would proceed slowly. He
said he would issue a clarifying statement today that
would indicate "certain technical arrangements" would
not be touched. According to the US embassy his impli-
cation was that bilateral arrangements with the US would
be respected.
Averoff told the ambassador that the NATO pull-out
was necessary to relieve the deep sense of humiliation
brought on by the events on Cyprus. He said the move
had been extremely popular throughout the country and
that it had markedly strengthened Karamanlis' position.
Greek authorities have eased the ban on air traf-
fic to and from US air bases in the country. US mili-
tary aircraft may now operate into and out of Athens
airport from the west with a minimum of six hours notice.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 19, 1974
Meanwhile, anti-US demonstrations have continued
in many parts of the country. In the first major clash
between police and demonstrators since Karamanlis took
power, at least six people were injured in an attempted
march on the US embassy in downtown Athens. Demonstra-
tions also took place on Crete on Saturday and Sunday,
but there were apparently no major threats to the US
base at Iraklion.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 19, 1974
Sharp fighting continues in the northern provinces
and in areas near Saigon.
. On August 17, the district town of Minh Long in
Quang Ngai Province fell after heavy ground and artillery
attacks by Communist forces. It is the second district
town in the northern provinces overrun this month.
In nearby Quang Nam Province, the Communists are
maintaining heavy pressure on three district towns south
and southwest of Da Nang. Communist gunners on August
17 fired a salvo of rockets at the air base near Da Nang,
damaging one aircraft and causing numerous civilian cas-
ualties. The northern provinces will probably remain
the scene of heavy fighting as the Communists push to
increase their territorial holdings.
Closer to Saigon, government forces have fended
off tank-supported Communist attacks near the Cambodian
border southwest of Tay Ninh City and along Route 13 in
the Ben Cat area of Binh Duon Province.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 19, 1974
KOREA-JAPAN
South Korean authorities claim that assailant Mun
Se-kwang broke under interrogation and revealed that his
effort to kill President Pak was ordered by North Korean
President Kim Il-song.
The official South Korean version of the assassina-
tion plot is that Mun, an anti-Pak activist among Koreans
resident in Japan, was recruited for his mission in Sep-
tember 1972 by Kim Ho-ryong, leader of an Osaka chapter
of Chosen Soren, the pro-Pyongyang umbrella organization
of Koreans in Japan, and by an unidentified North Korean
whom Mun met on a North Korean vessel docked in Osaka.
Mun was told by his mentors that Kim Il-song had ordered
the assassination.
In November 1973, according to the South Korean ac-
count, Mun was instructed to kill Pak on March 1, 1974,
but the date of the attack was subsequently postponed.
In May 1974, Mun received orders to kill Pak on August
15, the date of the actual attempt.
Information so far provided by Japanese police of-
ficials tends to support the broad outlines of the South
Korean version of a conspiracy against Pak. Presumably,
any confirmation of the Kim Il-song angle must come from
Kim Ho-ryong, the third principal in the alleged conspir-
acy. Chosen Soren officials in Osaka have confirmed
membership of a man with that name, but deny that he had
anything to do with the events of August 15. According
to press accounts, Kim has been missing from his home in
Osaka since August 16. The Japanese police have pledged
their best efforts to locate the suspect.
The Mun Se-kwang case obviously has important polit-
ical ramifications, whether or not Seoul's version of the
matter is true in every respect. At the moment, three
problem areas stand out:
--The North-South political dialogue, or what re-
mains of it, seems headed for the deep freeze.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 19, 1974
--Assassin Mun appears to provide a clear-cut link
between anti-Pak activists in Japan, whatever their
political complexion, and the North Korean political
apparatus there. Thus, Seoul will be encouraged in
its persistent effort to brand all opponents of Pak
as tools or dupes of Pyongyang.
--There is the obvious potential for worsening of
the already tense South Korean relationship with
Tokyo. The South Koreans, for example, will be
pressing for tougher Japanese policing of leftist
elements among the 600,000 Koreans resident in Japan.
This may be difficult for Tokyo to do in the context
of its own police and judicial system. The Japanese,
with their long-standing prejudices against Koreans,
will be upset by such events as the scuffles in
Tokyo on Friday and Saturday between Korean leftists
and pro-Pak groups out to avenge their leader. The
prevailing response in Japan to such events will be
to condemn both sides.
lationship.
In recognition of the dangers inherent in the situa-
tion, Prime Minister Tanaka will attend Mrs. Pak's funeral
in Seoul today and will confer privately with President
Pak afterward. Indeed, the rush of events may have pro-
vided both leaders with a useful opportunity to make
something of a fresh start in the troubled bilateral re-
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 19, 1974
The attempt to fashion a constitutional government
is still on course, but behind schedule.
In the tumultuous days following the collapse of
the Thanom-Praphat military regime last October, there
were expectations that a new constitution would be pro-
mulgated and elections held within about six months.
The draft constitution is still under study in the Na-
tional Assembly, however, and the process is not likely
to be completed for at least another month. The draft
constitution calls for national elections within 90 days
of its promulgation.
If there are no further hitches, the process will
conclude early in 1975 with the seating of Thailand's
first elected civilian government since 1946.
The Thai did elect a government in 1957, but that
election was no more than an attempt by the military
regime to legitimatize its de facto control. Unlike
the election in 1957, there will be no military officers
running for political office this time, although one
senior officer--Air Marshal Thawi--may throw his hat
into the ring when he retires from service in October.
One of the more unusual features of present-day Thai
political life has been the military's.reluctance to
continue to mix soldiering with politics.
The improved performance of civilian Prime Minister
Sanya Thammasak in recent months also has dampened spec-
ulation in Bangkok about the "inevitability" of a return
to military rule. His tough handling of a recent civil
disturbance, for example, diminished the concern of
many army officers that civilian rule means weak lead-
ership and political instability. Sanya's increasingly
aggressive style of leadership results partly from his
realization that, despite its caretaker status, the
public wants the government to start tackling some of
Thailand's tougher problems, such as land reform and
relations with the US.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 19, 1974
The civilian government's demonstrated responsive-
ness to public opinion, coupled with Sanya's acceptance
of the National Assembly as an important element in the
political process, has helped establish a pattern of
political behavior that is likely to ease the country's
transition toward representative government. Sanya,
despite his reluctance to serve again, will be the fa-
vorite of many to lead Thailand's latest experiment in
representative government.
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National Intelligence Bulletin. August 19, 1974
The politically dominant Armed Forces Coordinating
Committee staged a show of force Friday to demonstrate
continued backing for Emperor Haile Selassie and Prime
Minister Mikael.
Troops in armored cars and tanks paraded through the
streets of Addis Ababa and air force lanes flew over the
the city in formation.
The increased unity displayed by the Armed Forces
Coordinating Committee in recent days may be tested by
the arrest on Saturday of the commander of the Imperial
Bodyguard, the unit responsible for the Emperor's per-
sonal safety. Representatives of the bodyguard on the
committee who had previously resisted actions aimed
directly at the Emperor apparently supported the commit-
'
s
tee's dissolution last week of all of Haile Selassie
instruments of power.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 19, 1974
The Soviets brought down Cosmos 672 early yesterday
morning after six days in orbit. The spacecraft, an un-
manned Soyuz, was launched to test modifications made
for the Apollo-Soyuz mission next July.
Cosmos 672 is the second unmanned Soyuz flown by
the Soviets in preparation for the joint mission. The
first, Cosmos 638, was launched in April and was in orbit
for ten days.
The Soviets are expected to conduct two to three
manned Soyuz missions between now and July that are re-
lated to the Apollo-Soyuz test. Many members of the
Soyuz back-up crews for the joint mission have no prior
experience in space, and the Soviets probably will at-
tempt to orbit several of these crews in the coming
months to acquaint them with the rigors of space flight.
Preparations are continuing for a manned space
flight probably in the next week or so. It is not cer-
tain whether the mission will be related to the Apollo-
Soyuz test or will send another crew of cosmonauts to
man the Salyut 3 space station.
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Libya-Egypt: Libyan President Qadhafi returned
home Sunday after holding a day of reconciliation talks
with President Sadat in Alexandria, according to press
reports. A Tripoli spokesman said the visit was in re-
sponse to an invitation from the Egyptian President and
the result of mediation efforts by President Sheikh
Zayid of the United Arab Emirates. Sadat had previously
been inclined to avoid a dialogue with Qadhafi. Details
of the talks are not known, but an Egyptian spokesman
has announced that the two countries agreed to mute
their acrimonious press war.
Yugoslavia-Greece: Yugoslav Foreign Minister Minic
was in Athens on Saturday to deliver a personal message
from President Tito to Greek President Gizikis and Prime
Minister Karamanlis. Minic said the message deals with
the Cyprus situation. Minic is going to Ankara today on
a similar visit.
USSR-China: Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Ilichev,
the head of the USSR's delegation to the border talks in
Peking, returned to Moscow yesterday. Soviet officials
have said during the past month that the border talks,
which have been going on for more than four years, had
not progressed since Ilichev went to Peking in June.
Moscow says his return home is "temporary" and for "of-
ficial business." This is consistent with past Soviet
efforts to portray their attitude toward the talks as
constructive.
Portugal-Mozambi ue: Portuguese Foreign Minister
Snares has returned to Lisbon after two days of secret
talks in Dar es Salaam with officials of the Front for
the Liberation of Mozambique, according to press reports.
A senior Tanzanian Foreign Ministry official told the US
embassy that the two sides had at least preliminary dis-
cussions on the establishment of a provisional government
in Mozambique.
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