CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010034-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 27, 2006
• Sequence Number: 34
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
28 August 1974
N2 631
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 28, 1974
CONTENTS
GREECE-TURKEY-CYPRUS: Turks moving ahead with plans for
an "Autonomous Turkish Republic of Cyprus." (Page 1)
CYPRUS: Land captured by Turkey contains island's key
economic resources. (Page 5)
FRANCE: President Giscard calls for EC summit to promote
West European unity. (Page 13)
NORTH VIETNAM: Recent article registers dissatisfaction
with support from Hanoi's Communist allies. (Page 14)
ICELAND: Agreement reached on coalition government.
Page 16)
USSR - EASTERN EUROPE: Large number of overflights at-
tributed to increased tourism. (Page 17)
AFRICA: Rainfall in the Sahel. (Page 19)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 20)
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Kokkink
.Paphos
Territory controlled
by Turkish forces
UK Snvere.gn
base area
0 10 20
t t
Stawte miles
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 28, 1974
The Turks are moving ahead with plans to create an
"Autonomous Turkish Republic of Cyprus." Turkish Cypriot
leader Denktash said yesterday that a constitution for
such a republic is ready and that he expects some 30 na-
tions to recognize the new state. Denktash set no date
for proclaiming an independent state, continuing to tie
the proclamation to the possibility of Greece's taking
the Cyprus issue to the UN General Assembly in September.
UN Secretary General Waldheim continues to express
hope that a common ground will be found that will permit
peace talks to begin, despite the wide gaps he found be-
tween the Greeks and Turks. He has touched base in
Athens, Ankara, Nicosia, and London and is expected to
report the findings of his trip to the Security Council
today. Waldheim believes that the first order of busi-
ness is to reach agreement on a new mandate for the UN
peace-keeping force on Cyprus. He wants to update the
mandate, which expires in December, to reflect the new
situation on Cyprus. The Cypriot UN delegation, mean-
while, has requested a special meeting of the Security
Council to take up the refugee problem.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 28, 1974
Acting Cypriot President Clerides announced yester-
day that his government has accepted the Soviet proposal
to bring the Cyprus issue into a UN framework. Almost
simultaneously, the Turks announced their rejection of
the proposal, although they praised the Soviets for their
"constructive attitude."
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Boghaz
Irrigated Area
l itiia Line
Larnaca
Southern Boundary of Agricultural Plain
Tourism
0 10 20
I I 1
Statute tulles
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 28, 1974
In capturing about 40 percent of Cyprus, Turkey has
gained control of almost all of the island's important
economic resources. Permanent partition along the pres-
ent cease-fire lines would place the majority Greek
population--about 80 percent of the total--in an economi-
cally untenable situation.
Cyprus' key agricultural, mining, manufacturing,
and tourist centers are all in the Turkish zone. This
zone has accounted for considerably more than half of
the economic activity on the island. Greek Cypriots
have fled to the mountainous, least productive areas.
Still in Greek Cypriot hands are the Limassol tourist
and commercial area, the port of Larnaca, and the Troodos
highlands, where grazing and olive, wine, and grape pro-
duction are the chief occupations.
The Turkish-controlled zone includes land devoted
to wheat, barley, vegetables, potatoes, and citrus
fruits. Cyprus, already dependent on imports for 40
percent of its food supply, consumes all domestically
grown wheat, barley, and vegetables.
More than half of the producing areas for these
foods, accounting for about 65 percent of Cypriot agri-
cultural output by volume, are under Turkish control.
They occupy almost all of the agricultural areas that
are permanently irrigated.
Turkish forces also control large sections of the
copper-producing region surrounding the city of Xeros.
This area, encompassing the Mavrovouni and Skouriotissa
operations of the US-owned Cyprus Mines Corporation,
accounts for two thirds of Cypriot mineral production
and 70 percent of mineral export earnings. The Greeks
retain some copper resources as well as important iron
pyrite deposits south of the Turkish-occupied zone.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 28, 1974
The Turks occupy much of the principal manufacturing
district surrounding Nicosia in addition to the popular
Kyrenia and Famagusta tourist areas. While destruction
in these areas has not been extensive, the massive dis-
location of workers and the absence of tourists have
brought economic activity to a standstill.
Outside the occupied zone, fires caused by Turkish
bombing have destroyed a large part of southwestern
timber lands. Resulting watershed deforestation will
threaten the island's already scarce water supply. Water
shortages, normal occurrences before the war, are now
severe. Crops have not been irrigated in over a month,
and livestock is reported to be dying of thirst in large
numbers.
The invasion has had a devastating impact on Greek
Cypriots, causing an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 to flee
their homes and businesses. Greek Cypriot authorities
give preliminary estimates of their losses as follows:
--construction, $125 million;
--tourism, $36 million;
--industry, $18 million;
--agriculture, $8-10 million;
--lost working days, $18 million.
This totals over $200 million and the final figures will
probably be much higher.
While Ankara remains flexible, present Turkish plans
seem to call for a formalization of the Attila line.
Should there be an extensive exchange of population
formalizing the departure of Greek Cypriots and the in-
flow of Turkish Cypriots from the occupied zone, the
land gained by Turkish Cypriots in the northeast portion
of the island would be much greater than that abandoned
in the southwest.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 28, 1974
It is unlikely that the area left to Greek Cypriots
could support the additional 150,000 refugees who might
have to be resettled there. Since food supplies already
are inadequate, heavy reliance on foreign food aid will
be necessary. Lacking significant manufacturing, agri-
cultural, mining, and tourist activity, the Greek-held
areas face extensive underemployment and massive emigra-
tion.
Ankara is likely to consolidate its gains in the
northeast by pouring considerable investment into the
mineral, tourist, petroleum refining, and service in-
dustries. The Turkish Cypriot population, which for-
merly enjoyed a per capita income only half that of
Greek Cypriots, would profit from the realignment.
The military expedition, which has cost Turkey an
estimated $370 million, would be compensated by the
creation of the robust Turkish Cypriot economy and eli-
mination of an annual $22-million welfare payment made
by Ankara to support the Turkish enclaves.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 28, 1974
President Giscard d'Estaing in a speech last night
called for an EC summit sometime before the end of the
year to promote West European unity.
He said the US lack of concern for Western Europe
during the change of administrations and the failure of
President Ford to mention Europe in his first speech
illustrate Europe's need to rely on itself. Giscard
added that Europe's inability to influence events on
Cyprus, even though both Greece and Turkey are associated
with the EC, also shows the need for greater European
unity.
Giscard's comments about the US reflect, at least in
part, tactics he feels he must use in carrying the Gaul-
lists along with his more flexible foreign policies.
The French President is vulnerable to Gaullist criticism
that he and the centrists he has brought into the gov-
ernment are willing to submerge French independence.
The President's speech and a recent talk by Prime
Minister Chirac on nuclear policy both suggest Giscard
will at least publicly stick to traditional Gaullist
tenets. Behind the scenes, however, the Giscard team
may be quietly laying the groundwork for significant
changes. If his predecessors had spoken yesterday, they
would have said that the US actions make clear the need
for increased French independence. Giscard took a step
in another direction, calling instead for greater Euro-
pean unity.
Giscard may also think that using the anti-American
line will help prod his European neighbors toward greater
unity. President Pompidou tried a similar tactic when
Western Europe was incensed over US handling of the Mid-
dle East war last October. West Europeans in general
have been unhappy with the US position on the Cyprus
crisis, and Giscard apparently hopes that these feelings
will encourage them to work together to resolve the dif-
ficult problems of moving toward European unification.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 28, 1974
A recent article in North Vietnam's army newspaper
has registered dissatisfaction with the support of
Hanoi's Communist allies.
The article extols the justice and necessity of
Hanoi's "liberation war" and categorically states,
"Marxists must inevitably support this war." It appears
to take several swipes at past or current counsels of
restraint from Moscow or Peking and makes a special effort
to counter the argument that renewed fighting in South
Vietnam would lead to a world war. The article also con-
tends that the "chances for breaking the weak links in
the remaining chain of imperialism have increased to an
unprecedented degree." This line is a natural follow-on
to recent militant Vietnamese Communist propaganda stress-
ing "new opportunities" for gains in the South.
The article clearly was not presented as a final,
authoritative party pronouncement. It was unsigned and
has not been broadcast or printed in the party newspaper.
It was, however, cast in a format usually reserved for
important statements. In the past, the North Vietnamese
leadership has been fairly united in questioning the com-
mitment of Peking and Moscow.
The article could be intended as justification for
the increased level of military activity now under way
in the South and, perhaps, as a warning that Hanoi in-
tends to fight the war on its own terms. Although the
article stops short of any specific criticism of the
level of Chinese or Soviet military deliveries, this sup-
port is believed to have declined considerably since the
cease-fire. It is also possible, therefore, that the ar-
ticle could be related to a new North Vietnamese effort
to gain increased military aid from one or both of its
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 28, 1974
After several weeks of negotiations, the conservative
Independence Party and the moderate Progressives reached
agreement yesterday on a coalition government. The new
government will be headed by the chairman of the Indepen-
dence Party, Geir Hallgrimsson, who is pro-US and favors
retention of the US-manned Keflavik base, probably with
some modification of the present agreement.
The new coalition will have 42 seats in the 60-seat
parliament and each party in the coalition will choose
four cabinet ministers. Progressive Einar Agustsson
retains his post as foreign minister and provides con-
tinuity as chief negotiator on the base question. Unlike
past base negotiating sessions, when Agustsson was buffeted
between moderates in his own party and leftists in the
Communist Party, he may now be able to settle down to use-
ful talks.
The new government may still require a US response to
the stringent demands for personnel reductions put forward
last April by the previous coalition. There have been in-
dications that Reykjavik would not insist on such changes,
but so-called "non-negotiable" demands will probably re-
main. These include the hiring of more Icelandic na-
tionals at the base, on-base housing for all US military
personnel, and separation of civilian and military facil-
ities at the airport.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
USSR - EASTERN EUROPE
August 28, 1974
The intelligence community has concluded that the
large number of aircraft reported flying over Budapest
in late July and early August reflected a heavy influx
of tourists to resort areas on the Black Sea coast and
were not military in nature.
In mid-July, just after the eruption of war on
Cyprus, Western attaches in Budapest began reporting
that, starting on July 11, large numbers of turboprop
aircraft had been observed flying in a southeasterly
direction over that city. Many of the aircraft were
flying at lower than normal altitudes--6,000 to 8,000
feet. These developments, along with reports of tensions
between the Soviet Union and Romania and rumors of a
Bulgarian buildup near the Greek-Turkish border, suggested
the possibility that a clandestine military airlift was
under way.
Several factors argued against the flights being
military, however. Through late July and early August,
intensive efforts failed to turn up evidence of any un-
usual military activity. Furthermore, it seemed unlikely
that a clandestine airlift would be conducted during
both day and night over a large population center at low
altitudes. In the absence of other indicators, an in-
crease in tourist flights seemed to be the most plausible
explanation, but the lower altitudes remained a problem.
Attaches posted at airports near the resorts observed
large numbers of civil and charter aircraft arriving dur-
ing the day and night. more
than two million tourists were expected roug e sum-
mer season, with a large percentage arriving by air.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
AFRICA
August 28, 1974
Recent rains in the Sahel are proving to be a mixed
blessing for the Africans affected by the six-year
drought, the longest ever recorded in the area. Except
in Mauritania and northern Senegal, rainfall was adequate
last month and so far this month. If rainfall continues
to be significant through September, this year's harvest
could improve substantially over the last.
On the other hand, heavy rainfall has caused serious
flooding in some parts of the Sahel, particularly in Mali
and Niger. The US embassies in these countries have re-
ported numerous drownings and heavy damage to crops,
livestock, and housing. The rain has also washed away
roads, isolated communities, and hampered relief opera-
tions.
Even with ideal conditions, the October harvest will
not eliminate the need for food donations next year.
Requirements for grain aid, however, will be below the
one million tons that will be delivered by November 1974.
Foreign food donations since 1972 have averted the
threat of mass starvation and substantially reduced
malnutrition in the Sahel. Although there are no reli-
able statistics, the drought has been the cause of many
adic
deaths in the past three years, mostly among nom
herdsmen. The most severely affected countries have
been Mauritania, Mali, Upper Volta, Niger, Chad, and
Senegal.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 28, 1974
FOR THE RECORD
Korea: The Seoul government has decided to proceed
with a sc eduled working-level session with North Korean
Red Cross officials on August 28, despite its continuing
denunciation of the Kim I1-song regime for the attempt
to assassinate President Pak. The overriding considera-
tion in approving the meeting was .a. belief that--on the
eve of the UN General Assembly session, at which Korea
will be an issue--the South might suffer diplomatically
if it appeared unwilling to continue the two-year dia-
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Top Secret
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