CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010026-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 15, 2006
• Sequence Number: 26
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
3 September 1974
N2 652
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 3, 1974
CONTENTS
EGYPT: Moscow reschedules Fahmi visit.
CYPRUS: Talks postponed. (Page 5)
(P age 3)
CAMBODIA: Lon Non may return to Phnom Penh soon. (Page 7)
CAMBODIA: Students giver. stiff prison sentences. (Page 8)
NEW ZEALAND: Succession problem. (Page 13)
':NILE: Security tightens as government's anniversary
:;approaches. (Page 15)
SPAIN: Franco to resume powers as chief of state.
(Page 17)
LIBYA: Fifth anniversary--parade but no speech.
(Page 18)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 18)
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 3, 1974
The Soviets have invited Egyptian Foreign Minister
Fahmi to make the Moscow visit they abruptly postponed
earlier this summer. Cairo announced yesterday that the
ake
ill
p-
..
4t-LP W
---Egyptian Chief of Staff Gamasy most likely will be in-
cluded in the delegation suggests that one of Cairo's
goals is to ensure a steady flow of spare parts for
ccess to new
i
n a
its military equipment and to obta
Sovie n systems. Moscow's readiness to receive
Fahmi
indications that re ations e
two countries are improving.
President Sadat has been under pressure from domes-
tic critics to mend.fences with the Soviets, and Fahmi's
trip should help quiet the fears of those cabinet min-
isters and military leaders who are concerned that Sadat
is favoring the US too heavily at the expense of ties
with the USSR.
-3-
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ITALY
}
-Athens
Crete
*Ankara
T.UR KEY
EGYPT
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 3, 1974
CYPRUS
Turkish. Cypriot leader Denktash postponed yester-
day the second in a planned series of talks with Greek
Cypriot leader Clerides, following the discovery of the
bodies of a large number of massacred Turkish Cypriots
outside a village near Famagusta. The two Cypriot
leaders reportedly will resume their talks on refugees
and other humanitarian issues next Friday.
According to a UN representative on Cyprus, this
is the third discovery of massacred Turkish Cypriots.
Although the general appearance of the bodies indicates
the incident took place some weeks ago, Turkish forces
are likely to use the discovery to press their claim
that the presence of the Turkish military on Cyprus is
necessary to protect Turkish Cypriots. It will likely
also provide added urgency to efforts already under way
to transfer Turkish Cypriots into the occupied area from
elsewhere on the island.
Over the weekend, Turkish forces continued to inch
forward from the cease-fire lines.
A more serious violation of the cease-
fire, as reported by the UN, is Turkish patrolling of
villages right up to the boundary of the British base
at Dhekelia, producing a new wave of Greek Cypriot ref-
ugees entering the British base.
In Nicosia, Acting President Clerides told the
new US ambassador last Friday that he had some indica-
tion that Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis was preparing
to drop his insistence on a Turkish military pullback
as a precondition to serious negotiations. Clerides
expressed his own view on the urgency of starting nego-
tiations, saying he expected he would soon run out of
purely humanitarian issues to discuss with Denktash in
their planned weekly meetings.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 3, 1974
Clerides also expressed his grave concern over the
possibility of fighting between armed Greek Cypriot ex-
tremist groups. In an effort to head off this problem,
the national guard is beginning a program to disarm the
EOKA-B and other extremist groups of the right and left.
In Greece, Prime Minister Karamanlis spoke to the
nation Saturday night following a rousing homecoming
welcome in Thessaloniki. Karamanlis made no major an-
nouncements but gave a wide-ranging talk on his hopes
for a return to full democracy at home and his views of
the Cyprus problem. He reaffirmed his decision to with-
draw militarily from NATO, but said that Greece would
not break "political and spiritual ties to Europe." He
also implied criticism of the US role in the events sur-
rounding the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, but placed
primary responsibility on the junta that preceded him.
The Greek prime minister called on the nation,
especially the press, to exhibit political maturity in
this time of national crisis. If this was achieved,
Karamanlis said, he would be able to announce, in a time
"much shorter than expected," a date for elections.
The Greek government has decided to cancel, "due
to the crisis," a US amphibious landing exercise sched-
uled to begin this week. The US embassy reports that
informal discussions indicate the Greek decision to
cancel the training exercise stemmed from problems of
airspace control and the desire to avoid any incidents.
Some hope was held out that another exercise scheduled
for November might still be ermitted.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 3, 1974
CAMBODIA
There may be some substance to rumors in Phnom Penh
of the imminent return of Brigadier General Lon Non, Pres-
ident Lon Nol's troublemaking younger brother. Lon Non
was pressured into leaving Cambodia in the spring of last
year after his constant political machinations had antag-
onized much of the Cambodian political leadership. Last
month he declined an appointment to the Cambodian embassy
in Paris and is now alleged to have refused President
Lon Nol's request that he serve on his government's dele-
gation to the UN. Cambodian officials who have talked
with Lon Non in Paris recently are expecting him back
in Phnom Penh early this month.
Lon Nol has apparently sent no new instructions to'
his brother but instead has been sounding out to offi-
cials on their feelings about Lon Non's return.
Lon Non is such a controversial figure that his
very presence in Phnom Penh would cause political ten-
sions to rise. Sirik Matak and fellow members of his
Republican Party, in particular, would read Lon Non's
return as an act of bad faith on Lon Nol's part. Other
leading figures such as army commander in chief Sosthene
Fernandez and Prime Minister Long Boret have taken a
more relaxed attitude toward the possibility of Lon Non's
return, but their attitudes would change quickly if Lon
Non were to begin indulging his proclivity for political
subterfuge.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
CAMBODIA
September 3, 1974
Phnom Penh's military tribunal has meted out stiff
sentences to a number of students implicated in the as-
sassination of the minister of education and a presiden-
tial adviser on June 4. The alleged assassin, Thuch
Sey Ky, who has disappeared, and another student were
sentenced to death in absentia. Sentences of 15 others,
including most of the students who had been conducting
a hunger strike in the capital's prison, ranged from
life imprisonment through 5 to 20 years at hard labor.
Only four suspects were acquitted.
The sentences will almost certainly cause further
unhappiness among Phnom Penh's student-teacher activ-
ists. They are already upset over the government's
failure to redress the academic community's economic
grievances and may use the military court's action as
an excuse to renew street demonstrations against the
Lon Nol regime. Activist discontent will be tempered,
however, if Lon Nol follows recent past practice and
grants clemency to some of those who received prison
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 3, 1974
NEW ZEALAND
Prime Minister Kirk's sudden death leaves a large
leadership gap in the Labor government. There is no
obvious successor. Pre-eminent in the Labor Party for
ten years, the popular and dynamic Prime Minister had
never felt the need to groom an alternate.
Deputy Prime Minister Watt becomes acting prime
minister, and the party caucus will meet within ten
days to select a new leader. A desire for continuity
and Watt's reputation as a party workhorse strengthen
his chances, but he has not distinguished himself in his
several cabinet positions and generally has not been con-
sidered prime minister material.
Four others appear to be in the running. Finance
Minister Rowling, an able and shrewd politician with
lines to every Labor member of parliament, appears to
be the strongest candidate. Trade and Industry Minister
Freer, although number-three man in the Kirk government,
suffers from a history of radical left activities, even
though he appears to have mellowed considerably with
time. Justice Minister Finlay, another leftist, is
hard working but may be too intellectual for his Labor
colleagues' liking. The talented defense minister,
Arthur Faulkner, has not had the wide-ranging cabinet
responsibilities that would make him a natural contender.
Even before Kirk's death, however, he had been mentioned
as a replacement for Watt as deputy prime minister and
could be a dark horse in the race for prime minister.
Whatever the outcome, the leadership change will
have little effect on Wellington's traditionally cordial
relations with the US.
Even if one of the leftist contenders
w.ins,he would be preoccupied with consolidating his party
position and attempting to deal with New Zealand's eco-
nomic problems.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 3, 1974
Although the Labor Party may be in some disarray
for several months, the opposition National Party is in
no position to take advantage of it. Labor's strong
parliamentary majority and tight party discipline make
it unlikely that elections could be forced before the
scheduled date of November 1975.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 3, 1974
Concern that the left may try to use violence to
mark the anniversary on September 11 of Allende's over-
throw has caused the government to tighten security.
Security forces are especially concerned about the
safety of government leaders during the anniversary and
the subsequent national holiday on September 18-19
Nationwide police sweeps and mass arrests of "crim-
inal elements"--undoubtedly aimed in part at ferreting
out leftists--began in mid-July and are likely to in-
tensify as the anniversary approaches. Moreover, there
apparently have been some recent incidents of field
level violations of the government's official policy
against summary executions.
There has been considerable speculation that the
first anniversary of military rule may bring announce-
ments about human rights. Pinochet said recently that
"the commutation or reduction of sentences" of persons
convicted of "lesser crimes" is under study, but ruled
out a general amnesty. The government's intentions may
be clarified when Pinochet holds a press conference on
September 4. There may also be word on what the govern-
ment plans to do with the Allende cabinet officers F and
leftist party leaders it has held since the coup.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 3, 1974
The Spanish government announced last night that
General Franco has decided to resume his powers as chief
of state. Prince Juan Carlos had been acting in his
stead since July 19, The announcement came a day after
Franco's doctors issued a bulletin stating that the 81-
year,-old leader was "clinically cured" of the thrombo-
phlebitis of his right leg and could resume a normal
life,
The announcement will end Juan Carlos' ambiguous
role, The Prince found it difficult to be acting chief
o~
of state with Franco looking over his shoulder
Despite the optimistic comments on Francois health
h
e
issued by his doctors and close associates over t
past week,, his other medical problems will reduce his
vigor and limit his tenure.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
LIBYA
September 3, 1974
The celebration of the fifth anniversary on Septem-
ber 1 of the coup that brought Colonel Qadhafi to power
was a quiet one. A reportedly relaxed and smiling
Qadhafi presided over the day's major attraction--a
large military parade in Tripoli.. Contrary to his cus-
tom on previous such occasions, Qadhafi made no speech.
A high official in the Ministry of Information told
reporters, however,i-h.at there was a 70-percent chance
Qadhafi would hold a news conference within a few days
The Libyans displayed two items of new Soviet mili-
tary equipment--SA-6 surface-to-air missiles and T-62
tanks. A large group of foreign dignitaries attended
the parade, including, on the Soviet side, a minister
of the Russian republic and a Soviet major-general.
France - West Germany: French President Giscard
and West German Chancellor Schmidt held an unexpected
meeting in Paris yesterday. No communique was issued;
Schmidt told reporters the discussion covered political
and economic topics.,
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