CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 22, 2006
• Sequence Number: 10
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
12 September 1974
N?_ 639
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
I I
National Intelligence Bulletin
September 12, 1974
CONTENTS
CYPRUS: Agreement reached on prisoners release, but
problems remain. (Page 1)
UK: Defense review may entail NATO cuts. (Page 3)
WEST GERMANY: Bonn near decision to purchase 200
European-built multi-purpose fighter bombers. (Page 5)
WESTERN EUROPE: Replacements for F-104 aircraft un-
der discussion in Washington. (Page 7)
FRANCE-EC: Paris official explains Giscard's pro-
posals for EC unity. (Page 9)
ITALY: Rome considers lifting import deposit require-
(Page 11)
25X1
CHINA-INDIA: New Delhi's actions in
Peking. (Page 15)
provoke
ETHIOPIA: Emperor deposed. (Page 17)
JAPAN - SOUTH KOREA: Pak rejects draft of Tanaka
letter. (Page 18)
MOZAMBIQUE: Security forces having difficulty in
restoring order. (Page 19)
PAKISTAN: Bhutto moves against Baluchi insurgents.
(Page 21)
CHILE: First anniversary celebrations go smoothly.
(Page 22)
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
I I
National intelligence Bulletin
CYPRUS
September 12, 1974
The leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot com-
munities agreed yesterday to release all prisoners and
detainees who are very old or under the age of 18. They
also agreed to free the sick and wounded, and university
students and teachers.
The release date will be announced tomorrow at the
scheduled meeting between acting President Clerides and
Vice President Denktash. International Red Cross offi-
cials will provide Clerides and Denktash with a list of
all remaining prisoners.
The status of these remaining prisoners is com-
plicated by disagreement over where they are to be re-
leased. Clerides wants the prisoners and detainees
released at the place of their capture or origin. He
will not agree to transfer Greek Cypriot - held prison-
ers to the Turkish-controlled sector in the north be-
cause it smacks of a population exchange, which the
Greeks and Greek Cypriots adamantly oppose.
Denktash considers Clerides' position unacceptable
because in most cases, Turkish Cypriot detainees would
have to return to villages within the Greek Cypriot
sector. The partial agreement yesterday appears to
have skirted the issue, and the real test will come to-
morrow when a general release of prisoners is considered.
Clerides, meanwhile, continues to be concerned
about the activities of Archbishop Makarios, who de-
clared after meeting with Greek Foreign Minister Mavros
last weekend, that he would return to C rus soon s
sibl within a moth.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1 25X1
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin
September 12, 1974
Defense Minister Roy Mason, recently discussing
Britain's review of its defense expenditure
reaffirmed that NATO re-
mains the first priority in the British defense effort.
On September 10, the US embassy received similar assur-
ances from other defense officials. It is unlikely,
however, that cuts sufficient to meet the defense budget
ceiling can be made on other expenditures.
e snort-range reductions already planned in expenditure
levels in this fiscal year can be realized without im-
mediate major program or manpower dislocations. They
hope that any reductions in their NATO-committed forces
can be made in the context of an eventual force reduction
(MBFR) agreement. In June, the UK informed NATO for the
first time of its willingness to reduce its forces in a
second phase of MBFR if certain conditions are met.
any major
NATO-related reductions will affect the British Army of
the Rhine and the Channel/Eastern Atlantic forces. Cuts
made in these forces probably would touch off less
domestic controversy than cuts made in the remaining
two British NATO elements, both based in the UK--the
home defense and nuclear deterrent forces. Should NATO
cuts become necessary in addition to any negotiated in
MBFR, they would meet stiff opposition from NATO's De-
fense Planning Commission.
Decisions concerning NATO-related reductions would
not be made public and would involve only long-term cuts
that could be included in agreements reached in the
MBFR negotiations. The Ministry of Defense has sug-
gested that tentative decisions of the review will be
passed to Washington for comment. US reactions will be
considered before any final decisions are reached--
probably not until after the coming national elections.
A Tory victory in the coming elections would prob-
ably have little effect on long-term British views on
their need for defense cuts. Although the Labor Party
takes a keener interest in reducing foreign expenditures,
the nation's economic difficulties would also force a
Conservative government to seek savings in its defense
program.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
I I
Maiden Flight
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
WEST GERMANY
The West German Ministry of Defense has tentatively
decided to go through with its agreement to purchase the
new Multi-Role Combat Aircraft, but to reduce its order
from 322 to 200 units.
The aircraft, which has been under joint develop-
ment by the UK, West Germany, and Italy for some five
years, has experienced a number of serious development
problems, but has recently completed two successful test
flights. The West Germans feel that, at this point, it
would be less costly to continue with the program and
to buy 200 of the aircraft than it would be to pay can-
cellation costs and purchase 200 different aircraft.
The production-run cutback resulting from Bonn's
decision will increase still further the cost per unit.
of what already is becoming the world's most expensive
fighter-bomber,
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1 25X1
Viggen Multipurpose Fighter
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin
September 12, 1974
The defense ministers of Belgium, the Netherlands,
Norway, and Denmark will meet today and tomorrow in Wash-
ington with Secretary of Defense Schlesinger to discuss
candidates for replacing their aging F-104 Starfighters.
The four ministers have recently completed a similar
fact-finding mission to France where they discussed the
Super Mirage F-1 with Defense Minister Soufflet.
The four countries have formed a consortium in hopes
of being able to choose a common replacement for their
F-104s. They agreed earlier this year to try to reach
a decision by the end of September, but there are indi-
cations that the decision will be postponed at least for
several months. Dutch Prime Minister den Uyl stated
flatly last week that the Netherlands would not make a
decision until early next year, and Danish Defense Minis-
ter Brondum said in a press statement earlier this week
that Denmark would make no decision this year. Norway
is in no hurry, and Belgium, most anxious of the four to
conclude nPao is ion is likely to postpone its vote
too
A delay of the decision until January 1975 would
most likely benefit one of the two US competitors--
Northrop's YF-17 and General Dynamics' YF-16. The US
air force is scheduled to decide in January which of the
two US prototypes it will buy. If the four European coun-
tries are to choose one of the US contenders, they would
wish to make sure it is the same one chosen by the US
air force--partly because the large order would reduce
production costs per unit and partly because it would
ensure availability of spare parts.
Meanwhile, the US defense attache in Stockholm re-
ports that Sweden has moved up its decision to purchase
additional Swedish-built fighter planes in an apparent
attempt to influence the decision of the four NATO coun-
tries in favor of the Saab-produced Viggen. According
to Swedish press reports, the air force placed an order
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
on September 9 for 30 interceptor versions of the AJ-37
Viggen multipurpose fighter. The order reportedly was,
placed eight months earlier than planned. The attache
believes the order probably is intended to be at least
a token effort to match French and US offers to the four-
nation consortium and also serves notice that Sweden has
not quit the race.
The press reports also indicated that Sweden will
formally invite the defense ministers of the consortium
to Sweden in October for further discussion on the ur-
chase of the Vi en.
ere as no een muc op imism or e iggen -s
chances. Technical and economic considerations aside,
the US and France have an immediate advantage over the
Swedes because Sweden belongs neither to NATO nor to the
EC. To counter these disadvantages, the Swedes said
earlier this summer that their fighter could be built
by companies entirely within EC and NATO countries
should the four nations opt for the Swedish aircraft.
As an added inducement to Brussels, the Swedes also of-
fered to set up in Belgium a new Saab automobile plant,
a Volvo truck factory, a Saab aircraft plant, and an
electronics manufacturing facility.
The AJ-37 Viggen is a Mach 2, single seat, short-
take-off-and-landing aircraft, designed to operate from
dispersed runways and roadways. Limited numbers of
the attack and trainer versions are already in service
with the Swedish air force. The interceptor version
will require considerable development work before series
production can begin. The program is fully funded for
development, however, and test flights are programmed
for later this fall. Deliveries are scheduled to start
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
FRANCE-EC
The director of economic affairs at the French for-
eign office has offered an explanation for President
Giscard's recent efforts to revive movement toward West
European unity and for some of the specific proposals he
is considering,
The French official said that the effort of Commu-
nity members to try to solve their economic problems
separately, and the UK's ambiguous feelings toward EC
membership have halted progress toward greater EC unity
and even threaten such cohesiveness as there ism
He went on to say that inflation precludes signif-
icant progress toward economic and monetary union. Paris,
therefore, has concluded that moves toward European unity
would have to be directed primarily toward strengthening
the political side of the EC through improved decision-
making procedures.
Giscard hopes for an EC summit meeting before
France's term as EC president ends in December. The
meeting could serve as a forum for initiating such moves
to better decision-making.
The French leader would like first to be sure that
significant progress is really possible. He thus in-
vited his EC partners to meet with him on September 14
to explore their views on these problems.
The official outlined some of the ideas that the
French have considered,
--More frequent meetings of heads of government in
an EC framework.
--Majority voting procedures in the EC Council of
Ministers by defining more precisely what questions
do not require unanimous approval.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
--More power for the European parliament.
--Greater cooperation on European transport and
environment policies.
--More intergovernmental cooperation in areas, such
as civil aviation and education, which are not
covered by the Treaty of Rome.
He characterized these proposals as a random col-
lection, all of which are relatively modest and not
particularly novel. The proposed strenghtening of the
European parliament and majority voting in the Council
are a considerable de arture from the views of Giscard's
predecessor.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
I I
National Intelligence Bulletin
ITALY
September 12, 1974
Rome is considering the gradual removal over the
next several months of its import deposit scheme, im-
posed last May. The government already has promised the
International Monetary Fund that it will terminate the
deposit scheme by March 31, 1975--an action that paves
the way for further use of a $1.2-billion standby credit.
Amendment of the deposit requirement, whereby im-
porters must place 50 percent of the value of certain
orders in interest-free accounts for six months, was
discussed at an interministerial meeting early this week.
Apparently the government soon intends to loosen the re-
quirement on imports of raw materials and semi-finished
goods. Capital goods, which represent the bulk of Italy's
imports from the US that are affected by the import de-
posit scheme, would be liberalized at a later date.
The deposit requirements, originally covering about
half of Italy's imports, have already been amended sev-
eral times and now cover about $8 billion, or 20 percent
of total Italian imports. Applications for exemptions
from the scheme number in the hundreds and total about
$3 billion.
The softening in Rome's attitude probably reflects
some easing in immediate balance-of-payments pressures.
Last month the parliament passed an austerity fiscal
package that will help hold the trade deficit to $11
billion this year. Rome also has obtained a $2-billion
credit from Bonn to help finance the payments deficit
expected during the rest of 1974--possibly several
billion dollars--and may receive some long-term EC as-
sistance.
Nevertheless, should a heavy run on the lira de-
velop in response to the expected political crisis this
fall or early next year, Rome could revert to an autarkic
import policy to avoid depreciation of the lira. Even
with the German loan and various credits from the In-
ternational Monetary Fund, Italy's foreign exchange re-
sources would last only three or four months if the cen-
tral bank had to resume intervention to the tune of $50
million a day as it did last spring.
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1 25X1
Next Page(s) Next 1 Page,(s) In Doc
u
ment Denied
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
I I
Mongolia
South
PsN. Korea
New
Delhi
TN rth -
Vletnam If Al NAN
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
I I
National Intelligence Bulletin
CHINA-INDIA
September 12, 1974
India's recent actions in its protectorate of Sikkim
have prompted Peking's strongest and most authoritative
attack on New Delhi's policy to date.
A Foreign Ministry statement, issued yesterday, ex-
pressed the "indignation" of the Chinese government and
people and noted that Peking does not recognize India's
"annexation" of Sikkim. The statement aligned Peking
with Sikkim's "just struggle for national independence
and sovereignty" and implied Chinese approval for those
in Sikkim and India clearly in the minority--who resist
New Delhi's policy.
The Chinese press, at times using harsh language
normally reserved for the USSR, has recently been en-
gaged in a propaganda attack on India stronger than any
in several years. Peking has accused India of wanton
expansionism in South Asia at the expense of more press-
ing domestic needs, compared India's actions in Sikkim
with the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovalia, and personally
attacked Indian leaders, including Mrs. Gandhi.
Peking's harsh reaction appears to reflect concern
over the security implications of a stronger Indian po-
sition along China's southwest frontier, particularly in
light of India's treaty ties to Moscow and India's o-
tential nuclear strength,
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1 25X1
National Intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
The Sikkim issue plainly has caused a further re-
gression of prospects for improvement in China's already
sour relations with India, and more direct C
volvement could cause further deterioration.
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
The military deposed Emperor Haile Selassie early
this morning.
Preliminary reports indicate that the monarch's
58-year-old ailing son Asfa Wossen will succeed him on
the throne. The ruling Armed Forces Coordinating Com-
mittee also has dissolved parliament and suspended the
constitution. Military courts are being formed.
Troops and tanks were in evidence in Addis Ababa
early today, but the city otherwise was calm. A daily
curfew between 1930 and 0500 has been instituted; dem-
onstrations and strikes are banned. There have been
no reports of disturbances in the provinces.
The international airport at Addis Ababa is re-
portedly closed and all flights are suspended.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
National intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
JAPAN - SOUTH KOREA
Last minute efforts to ease tensions between Japan
and South Korea foundered when Seoul rejected a draft
of Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka's personal letter to
President Pak. Foreign Minister Kim told the US charge
that the major difficulties Seoul had with the letter
were that Japanese admissions of responsibility for not
preventing the assassination attempt on Pak were "too
obscure" and that Japanese promises to curb terrorist
actions aimed at South Korea were "too weak."
Although Seoul has apparently indicated a willing-
ness to negotiate further, Tokyo maintains that the re-
jected draft is a "final position." Kim claimed that,
barring any new signal from Tokyo, his government is
prepared to proceed with its "previously prepared posi-
tion"--presumably the recall of its ambassador to Tokyo.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
MOZAMBIQUE
Security forces in Lourenco Marques yesterday en-
countered difficulties in restoring order following the
collapse Tuesday of an incipient rebellion by dissident
whites. According to an official communique from Lis-
bon, by last night a total of 100 persons had been
killed and 250 wounded in the five days of unrest.
Local authorities in Lourenco Marques declared mar-
tial law and instituted a curfew in an attempt to stem
the continuing vandalism, looting, and arson. These
authorities and leaders of the Front for the Liberation
of Mozambique have publicly appealed for calm, and the
military command has announced a program to provide
emergency food relief to the African population.
The street violence apparently has been confined
primarily to the black areas of the city, where the re-
bellion was interpreted as an attempt by'whites to
seize control of the government. The whites had an-
nounced only that they sought equal participation with
the Front in the transitional government that will pre-
pare for independence next June.
-19-
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
New Delhi
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin September 12, 1974
PAKISTAN
Prime Minister Bhutto appears to be stepping up mil-
itary operations against tribal insurgents in Baluchistan
Province. He may even have initiated a major new offen-
sive against them well ahead of his earlier timetable.
Bhutto had originally planned to give the rebels
until October 15 to lay down their arms before launching
his offensive. The US defense attache in Islamabad re-
ports that,
the government now has decided to make its move earlier.
the government
in recent weeks has been arresting hundreds of officials
of the National Awami Party, the main political organ
of opposition forces in Baluchistan and in the neighbor-
ing Northwest Frontier Province.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
National Intelligence Bulletin
September 12, 1974
In Afghanistan, where sympathy is strong for Pak-
istan's frontier dissidents, no reaction to the latest
Pakistani moves has been reported so far. Islamabad
reportedl is limiting this operation to Pakistani ter-
ritoryy-
CHILE
The military government's first anniversary celebra-
tion went smoothly yesterday. Leftists apparently failed
even to attempt disruptive activity.
Junta President Pinochet's announcement of an end
to the year-old state of internal war has important
juridical implications, but security measures will re-
main stringent under the continuing state of siege.
Pinochet declared that the government is "disposed" to
release prisoners en masse, but it is unclear whether
positive Cuban and Soviet response to his challenge that
they do likewise are prerequisite to Chilean action.
Pinochet also disclosed that quarterly wage read-
justments henceforth will fully keep pace with increases
in the cost of living. This move to ease the economic
squeeze on wage and salary earners may help keep popular
disaffection with the government in check, but it also
will hinder the fight against inflation.
The unlikelihood of an early return to civilian
rule was emphasized by some of the strongest language
yet on political activity. Pinochet declared that the
political "recess" would continue until the appearance
of a "new generation" of Chileans dedicated to national
rather than partisan causes.
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
 Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1
Top Secret
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2007/10/23: CIA-RDP79T00975AO26900010010-1