NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026800010054-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 54
• Publication Date: August 17, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
17 Au ust 1974
N2 631
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 17, 1974
CONTENTS
GREECE-TURKEY-CYPRUS: Athens still has not clearly
defined its ties with NATO and anti-Americanism on
rise; Turkish and Greek leaders accept cease-fire
but tensions continue. (Page 1)
USSR-CYPRUS: Soviets have not committed themselves to
meaningful support of any of the contending parties.
(Page 4)
ISRAEL - ARAB STATES: Recent mobilization exercises
have increased tension. (Page 5)
FRANCE: Defense review could bring policy change. (Page 7)
SOUTH KOREA: Government to link Pak's non-Communist
opponents with pro-North Korean elements in Japan.
(Page 10)
MOROCCO-SPAIN: Stage.set for further bilateral talks
on Spanish Sahara. (Page 11)
USSR-INDIA: Soviets promise wheat to ease Indian grain
shortage. (Page 13)
FEDAYEEN: PLO withdraws from border village. (Page 14)
WORLD POPULATION CONFERENCE: Meeting opens on Monday
in Romania. (Page 15)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 16)
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Athens, which earlier this week withdrew from the
military aspects of the NATO Alliance because of NATO's
inability to deter the Turkish invasion of Cyprus and an
alleged US "tilt" toward Turkey, still has not clearly
defined its future relations with NATO and the US.
The Greek defense minister notified General Good-
paster that Greek military personnel at NATO headquarters
have been temporarily placed on a 15-day notice and that
Greek defense officials have been asked to determine the
minimum number of Greek officers to stay on as liaison
to NATO. According to a Greek Foreign Ministry official,
Athens might follow the "French formula," which he de-
scribed as a gradual process during which liaison with
NATO would be maintained but without Greek military par-
ticipation. The official said this would result in the
elimination of Greek NATO facilities--which currently
include some 5,000 US service personnel--over an unspeci-
fied period of time.
Athens has begun to take specific actions to illus-
trate its displeasure with Washington. Greek authorities
yesterday announced that clearance would no longer be
granted to US military aircraft entering Greek airspace
unless they had pre-flight approval. Such action abro-
gates a 1966 bilateral agreement providing blanket dip-
lomatic approval for US military flights into Greece.
Earlier, the Greeks caused a delay of a US military emer-
gency flight from Greece to Ankara. The US embassy in
Athens speculates that Greece may be contemplating a
revision of the status of US forces in Greece, and could
be considering more far-reaching action.
Anti-American sentiment is on the rise in Greece.
In addition to more unfavorable editorials in the press,
an angry mob set fire to buildings in the US military
base at Iraklion, Crete. Demonstrations also occurred
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outside the embassy in Athens and in front of the con-
sulate in Thessaloniki. The return yesterday of leftist
political leader Andreas Papandreou is likely to fuel
further the current wave of anti-Americanism. He was
welcomed by a large crowd shouting anti-US slogans and
reportedly called for a complete break with the US and
NATO.
Greek Foreign Minister Mavros has told the US ambas-
sador in Athens that Prime Minister Karamanlis will soon
issue a statement on the economic situation in Greece.
He said that virtually everything the two previous gov-
ernments had put out had been falsified, citing as exam-
ples the government's claim that a surplus existed where
there was a deficit and the publication of highly exag-
gerated GNP growth rates.
Although Turkish and Greek leaders announced accept-
ance of a cease-fire on Cyprus, Athens has not commented
thus far on the cessation of hostilities. The Greek gov-
ernment reportedly has refused to participate in the re-
sumption of negotiations proposed by Turkey unless Ankara's
forces withdraw to the positions they held on August 9.
In a news conference yesterday, Prime Minister
Ecevit said Ankara did not intend to force Greek Cypriots
out of the Turkish zone and he believes that in the Turk-
ish area, a military administration is inevitable for an
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indefinite period. In commenting on whether there would
be a single Cypriot president, Ecevit said there would
bea "federal roof over two federal administrations."
The Military Situation
Turkish military forces yesterday gained most of
their objectives. They now control an area extending
roughly from Lefka and Limnitis in the west through
Nicosia and on to Famagusta on the east coast.
Sporadic cease-fire violations can be expected in
the next few days, but these should not be interpreted
as renewed hostilities. Some fighting was reported in
Limnitis and Nicosia after the cease-fire. Turkish units
reached Limnitis just before the cease-fire. At dawn
today, fighting resumed at the western approaches to
Nicosia and there were numerous fire fights throughout
the night.
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USSR-CYPRUS
August 17, 1974
The Soviets have found it difficult to square their
interest in a unified and independent Cyprus free of NATO
links with their desire to avoid alienation of Turkey.
As a result, they have not committed themselves to mean-
ingful support for any of the contending parties.
At least as outlined to the Turks, the Soviets now
would settle for:
--no partition of Cyprus;
--no US bases on the island;
--continued Cypriot independence, whatever its
form of government.
The imprecision of these terms appears designed to
appeal to Ankara. Some form of federation and a continued
Turkish military presence is not ruled out. In addition,
Moscow's verbal support for Makarios, whose return is
unacceptable to the Turks, has diminished considerably
during the last few weeks.
Moscow has not openly criticized Ankara in order to
avoid damaging its longer term interests in Turkey.
These include unhindered passage through the straits, a
reduction in US military use of Turkey, and a decline of
US influence.
Furthermore, Moscow has been chary about courting
the new regime in Athens
Never e ess, Moscow is intF-Iqued
by the turn a events in Greece, has applauded the Greek
decision to pull its troops out of NATO, and over the
longer term will probably encourage its drift away from
the US.
Moscow has also been frustrated by its exclusion from
all. significant diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis.
The Soviets have attempted--without notable success--to
obtain a greater role for themselves through the UN and
have suggested to the US the possibility of unspecified
joint actions to resolve the political situation on Cyprus.
The Soviets may intensify these efforts now that the Turks
have consolidated their position and Soviet actions cannot
be so readily labeled as aimed against Ankara.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 17, 1974
Israel's recent moves to improve its military pre-
paredness and its widely proclaimed concern over Arab in-
tentions have led in turn to increased Egyptian and Syrian
uneasiness and an upgrading of force readiness. Although
neither Israel nor her Arab neighbors seem to want to
renew fighting at this time, the heightened tensions re-
sulting from these steps increase the danger that fighting
could be resumed.
During the past several weeks, Israel has held a
series of large-scale military maneuvers, has mobilized
some of its reserves/-
Tel Aviv has also announced that it will soon hold its
first nationwide call-up of military reservists since the
war last October. Most of these measures have been widely
publicized and portrayed as part of a program of prepared-
ness against any resumption of hostilities by the Arabs.
The Israeli actions probably stem from several mo-
tives. Internationally, Tel Aviv hopes that evidence of
Israeli concern over the possibility of a resumption of
the Arab-Israeli war will lead to a quick decision for
increased military aid from the US. Tel Aviv also wants
to convince its Arab neighbors that any attack would be
met by throughly prepared Israeli forces. Domestically,
the government feels compelled to demonstrate that Israel
will not again be surprised militarily as it was in Octo-
ber. The Israeli actions do, however, evince a genuine
concern that fighting could again break out.
The principal object of Israel's concern has been
Syria. Israeli estimates attach special significance to
statements by Syrian President Asad over the past three
months that a final peace settlement must result in a
total withdrawal by Israel from all territories occupied
since 1967. Tel Aviv has maintained continuously that
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this demand is unacceptable. The Israelis are also con-
cerned about the replenishment of Syrian weapons invento-
ries and the introduction into Syria of such Soviet-pro-
duced weapons as the MIG-23 fighter
They claim t at there
is a real possibility that Syria will reopen hostilities
toward the end of this year--when the mandate of the UN
Observer Force comes up for renewal--if satisfactory prog-
ress in not made toward ;it-hipuinff T--r;;,-li awal.
some miII
-
o?ever, teel the danger period is more
likely to occur next spring.
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FRANCE
France's current defense policy review, in which
budgetary cuts are a key concern, could also lead to new
approaches to West European security cooperation.
Paris has thus far given no hint that policy shifts
are under consideration. In fact, Defense Minister
Soufflet implied to the US ambassador that the review
was inspired only by pressure to reduce the budget and
suggested that it could continue until near the end of
the year. He did mention the need for establishing new
priorities among the various advanced technological pro-
grams.
Press accounts this week, however, inspired by arti-
cles in military journals and in the newsweekly Express,
speculate that Paris is considering a new approach to
defense cooperation with its West European neighbors.
Citing a presidential adviser, the Express article says
that President Giscard is addressing the basic contradic-
tion between France's defense policy, which treats Germany
as a potential enemy, and its Soviet and European policies,
which call for close cooperation among EC members.
Giscard's perspective is different from that of
President Pompidou, who preferred partnership with London
rather than Bonn. Giscard has a much closer relationship
with Chancellor Schmidt, dating back to their earlier days
as finance ministers, than with any British leader.
Express says that Giscard has concluded that France's
independent defense plans, which are based on French sur-
vival alone in a dismembered Europe, are unsound and that
West Germany cannot be expected to commit itself to Euro-
pean unity in partnership with France if Paris is unwill-
ing to reciprocate fully.
This argument reportedly has led the French Presi-
dent to consider:
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--developing a program with Bonn for strengthening
French conventional forces stationed in West Germany
and arming them with the Pluton tactical missile;
--establishing a new body within the Atlantic
Alliance to discuss European defense cooperation,
especially nuclear matters. This group might be
acceptable to those in France who strongly oppose
joining NATO's Eurogroup, which now covers these
issues.
1The French leader has
already devoted a week to the study and has met with
senior Defense Ministry and military officers. According
to the press, he will publicize an outline of his plans
at the EC summit he hopes to call before the end of the
year.
President Pompidou, during his last year in office,
had ordered a similar defense review and there were
hints of policy shifts at that time, some of which are
similar to those surfacing now. The major difference at
this point may be Giscard's recognition that a European
defense strategy that fails to take account of German
power and susceptibilities is doomed to failure.
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SOUTH KOREA
August 17, 1974
The South Korean government will use the attempted
assassination of President Pak Chong-hui to link Pak's
non-Communist opponents with pro-North Korean elements
in Japan. This indicates no slackening in the current
effort to suppress all domestic dissent.
Police authorities in Seoul have publicly identified
the assailant, a Korean resident of Osaka, as an active
supporter of Kim Tae-chung, Pak's opponent in South
Korea's 1971 election and a leader of the non-Communist
opposition in South Korea. The gunman's background was
said to include active membership in various anti-Pak
groups in Japan--although no direct link with the pro-
Pyongyang Chosen Soren grouping of Koreans resident in
Japan has yet been alleged. He was also, according to
South Korean authorities, an admirer of North Korean
leader Kim Il-sun and China's Mao.
Meanwhile, Japanese police have arrested an Osaka
woman who assisted the gunman in securing a false Japanese
passport. There is also evidence that the gun itself was
stolen from an Osaka police station and smuggled into
South Korea inside a radio. The gunman, who had a large
sum of money on him when arrested, continues to insist
that he acted alone. There is no evidence of a conspiracy.
The case, o:f course, is affecting the sensitive re-
lationship between South Korea and Japan. Security of-
ficials of both countries are blaming their opposite
numbers for laxity. The Japanese press, despite the
death of Pak's wife during the attempt on the President's
life, persists in moralizing on Pak's shortcomings as a
leader. Perhaps recognizing the need to avoid further
straining of relations, Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka
has decided to attend Mrs. Pak's funeral in Seoul on
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The positive tone of the joint communique issued at
the end of two days of talks between the Moroccan prime
minister and Spanish officials in Madrid this week, as
well as initial Moroccan press reactions, seems to set the
stage for further bilateral talks on the dispute over
Spanish Sahara. An early resolution of the problem is
not in sight, however.
Morocco is continuing to use military pressure tac-
tics
King Hassan wants to eve op
a sense of urgency, but he does not want to close the
door to continuing talks with Madrid.
Hassan is well
aware of Spain's superior military capabilities and is
likely to keep his pressure tactics under careful control.
Madrid, meanwhile, seems to be searching for a com-
promise that would avoid a confrontation and at the same
time permit Spain to appear responsive to UN resolutions
calling for a referendum in which the inhabitants of the
territory would determine their future.
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Moscow reportedly has informed New Delhi that it
will provide 1.5-2 million tons of wheat during the next
few months to help ease India's tight grain situation.
Prior to the Soviet offer, New Delhi had already
lined up about 2 million tons for the current fiscal
year. At least 5 million tons will be needed, however,
and possibly much more depending on the size of the
major fall harvest.
Repayment is likely to be in commodities. Last
October, the Soviets provided 2 million tons of wheat
and allowed India to repay either in grain or other com-
modities over five years after a two-year grace period.
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FEDAYEEN
Moderate leaders of the Palestine Liberation Organ-
ization are embarrassed and on the defensive as a result
of claims made this week by the Israelis and fedayeen
extremists that recent Israeli air strikes have forced
a fedayeen withdrawal from a base in southern Lebanon.
Spokesmen for the PLO have acknowledged that fedayeen
forces did withdraw from the village of Rashaya al Fuk-
khar, but have insisted that the move was "dictated by
a desire to protect women and children" and did not signal
any change in fedayeen strategy.
PLO Chairman Yasir Arafat ordered the withdrawal
after talks with ]-jebanese Prime Minister Sulh on August
12. Repeated Israeli air strikes on the village last
week had prompted most residents to move out and a lesser
number to demonstrate against the Lebanese government in
a nearby regional governor's office.
The Israeli press has stressed that the fedayeen
evacuated the village in response to pressure from local
residents. Tel Aviv will take this as evidence of the
success of its policy of maintaining military pressure
on southern Lebanon to thwart fedayeen operations and
to force the Lebanese government to exert greater control
over fedayeen activities in the area.
Although Arafat was willing in this case to make a
"tactical withdrawal"--apparently limited to a movement
out of the town into nearby woodland--to preserve his
satisfactory relations with Lebanese officials, he is
almost certain to oppose pressures for any further moves
of this sort. He faces the threat of defections from
the PLO by its three most radical organizations. He
knows that he cannot provide their propagandists with
another opportunity to condemn his alleged willingness
to sacrifice the Palestinian "struggle" for the uncer-
tainties of a negotiated settlement.
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WORLD POPULATION CONFERENCE
More than 5,000 delegates from around the world will
gather in Bucharest on Monday for a two-week, UN-sponsored
World Population Conference. It is the first UN gather-
ing of this magnitude to be held in Eastern Europe, and
Bucharest is pulling out all the stops to make it a suc-
cess.
The conferees will address the political repercus-
sions of population planning and control. They face
numerous problems; even a request for pro forma adoption
of a plan of action may stir bitter debate. The develop-
ing countries complain that the proposed plan focuses
on their poor performance in implementing family planning
programs, and neglects the resource and environmental
problems intrinsic to the industrialized nations. In
addition, a number of developing countries are protesting
that even the limited population goals endorsed in the
plan infringe on their right to set birth-rate goals.
Attempts to accommodate these criticisms have not
been altogether successful. Several nations, including
the US, are worried that the highly technical recommenda-
tions in the plan will be misunderstood or ignored by
planners in those countries where population control is
most needed.
Romania is delighted to play host to the meeting
and welcomes the large number of delegates and news teams
that will be on hand from the Third World and the West.
President Ceausescu would like Romania to play a greater
role in world affairs, reasoning that by keeping Bucha-
rest in the international limelight it is more difficult
for Moscow to bring pressure on him.
There is an element of irony in the choice of Buch-
arest as the site of the conference: Romania has the
most stringent antiabortion laws in Eastern Europe.
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Spain: General Franco left Madrid yesterday for his
summer residence in the northwest part of the country.
The move does not mean that his condition has substantially
improved, but rather that his convalescence might be eased
in a cooler climate.
Mozambique: Portuguese Foreign Minister Soares is
meeting in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, with officials of the
Front for the Liberation of Mozambique, according to press
reports from Lisbon. Soares reportedly arrived in the
Tanzanian capital on August 15; the talks are expected to
last several days. Although the Portuguese claim they
have been maintaining secret contacts with the rebel or-
ganization, these are the first formal talks to take
place since early June when the two sides met briefly in
Zambia. Lisbon hopes to bring the Front into a coalition
government with other Mozambican groups and then to set up
a constituent assembly. The rebels, however, claim they
are ready to hold out as long as need be to achieve a
direct turnover of power.
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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