NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026800010040-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 9, 2012
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: August 9, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
Top Secret
9 August 1974
N2 631
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 9, 1974
CONTENTS
SOUTH VIETNAM: Military situation. (Page 1)
CYPRUS: Geneva talks open in an air of pessimism.
Page 5)
PORTUGAL: Military grows impatient with leftist obstruc-
tionist tactics. (Page 7)
EGYPT-LIBYA: Cairo to withdraw military personnel from
Libya. Page 8)
ROMANIA: Moscow's reaction to Macovescu's visit to China.
(Page 11)
PAKISTAN: Bhutto moves against largest opposition party.
(Page 14)
BANGLADESH: Flooding and food shortages could bring dis-
orders. (Page 15)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 17)
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NORTH'
1VIETNAM
Quang Tri
HUA THIEN
CAMM B0D'IA
IGHLAND
Pleill
PLEIKU
':f r.,' nna j
QUANG TIN ~'/
Quang Ngai
UANG
DUC
BINH
DINH
PHU
YEN
KHANH
HOA
BIN{
TUY
TMUA
AN XUYEN
GAM
~RANH
NINH UL
THUAN ,
SOUTH VIETNAM
MILES
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 9, 1974
While the Communists have made some recent gains
in Quang Nam and Quang Ngai provinces and seem to be pre-
paring to intensify fighting in several other sectors of
the country, the situation is less ominous than a day
ago.
In southern Military Region 1, the Communists are
continuing to shell government outposts in Quang Nam and
Quang Ngai provinces, but the government has moved in
reinforcements and seems to have regained the initiative
in some areas. Government forces are attempting to re-
capture lost territory and push the North Vietnamese
back.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 9, 1974
The Communists have moved large quantities of war
materiel, including long-range artillery, into the area,
and they may fight hard to hold the land that they have
taken. The shift: of a fresh division from Quang Tri
Province would enable the North Vietnamese to challenge
the government forces, but it probably would not be
enough for the Communists to expand significantly their
holdings.
The North Vietnamese have increased their attacks
in Pleiku,
Communist forces north and west of Saigon
a so seem to be preparing for more aggressive action.
Government forces should be able to cope with a
higher level of fighting and prevent the Communists
from making major inroads into the territory they now
control.
Communist units in the South are clearly capable of
carrying out large attacks throughout much of the country,
but they probably do not have the large manpower pool at
hand needed to sustain protracted campaigns in many areas.
Few troops have infiltrated in recent months. While Hanoi
has a substantial. number of troops training in the North
and is capable of moving them south faster than ever
before, it has usually positioned its troops on the
southern battlefronts before launching its campaigns.
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T U R K E Y
CYPRUS-"
11 ~ ", 21
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
# fi
LIBYA
Kara3as
6SIA
SYRIA
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 9, 1974
The second phase of the discussions on the disposi-
tion of the Cyprus problem opened in Geneva yesterday in
an air of pessimism caused by the continued violations
of the cease-fire and the failure to agree upon demarca-
tion lines and buffer zones separating Greek and Turkish
forces. The participants will now have to focus on these
problems before discussing constitutional issues. The
conference may also be marred by new tensions between
Greece and Turkey over Aegean airspace rights.
In Cyprus, Greek Cypriot leader Glafkos Clerides
yesterday announced the formation of a new eight-man
cabinet of well-known, nonpolitical business and pro-
fessional men. Clerides will retain the key ministries
of foreign affairs, interior, and defense. The cabinet
shuffle broadens the base of Clerides' government and
strengthens his hand against political foes on the left
and right. The cabinet change will also improve Clerides'
bargaining position at the Geneva talks.
Clerides' efforts to restore order on the island
will be further strengthened by the appointment of a
new Greek commander for the Greek Cypriot National Guard
and the replacement of key officers associated with the
July 15 coup,
On the military front, Ambassador Macomber ques-
tioned the Turkish defense minister yesterday on reports
that air force elements at Incirlik air base in southern
Turkey and at Merted air base west of Ankara had been
placed on maximum alert. Defense Minister Isik claimed
ignorance of the alerts, but assured the ambassador that,
in any event, nothing was being planned.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 9, 1974
It is possible, however, that the alert was intended
as a show of strength prior to the Geneva talks or in re-
lation to an apparent Turkish move to limit air traffic
in the eastern Aegean. The Greek defense minister told
Assistant Secretary of State Hartman on August 7 that
Turkey had informed his government that in the future, an
extensive area of the Aegean west and south of Turkey
could only be overflown after notifying Turkish air traf-
fic control. The Greek government replied that it would
not accept this unilateral Turkish action over what has
heretofore been Greek-controlled airspace. This indi-
cates that the conflict might spill over into the ongoing
Greco-Turkish dispute over control of the Aegean.
On Cyprus, the Turks continued their efforts to con-
solidate their holdings in the mountain range west of
Kyrenia, and the Cypriot National Guard occupied two vil-
lages near Paphos. Heavy fighting also occurred in Nico-
sia along the "green line" separating Greek and Turkish
Cypriots.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 9, 1974
Moderate elements within the military are growing
impatient with leftist tactics that have obstructed the
government's efforts to deal with critical problems.
The problems of the economy, particularly with labor,
were among the key issues that the military thought needed
urgent government action. The Council of Ministers an-
nounced on August 4 that they had approved, after 17 hours
of deliberation, a package of measures to stimulate the
economy. Agreement was not announced, however, on the
long-promised strike-lockout law. The inability to pass
labor legislation could create additional restiveness in
the armed forces.
The growing intolerance of the authorities toward
the left resulted in the temporary ban last week on
three Lisbon dailies. The US embassy indicates that
news reporting in Portugal is being heavily manipulated
in favor of the left, and a new press law is being nego-
tiated that is intended to restore balanced news report-
ing. The military is particularly incensed over propa-
ganda campaigns of the far left that attempt to persuade
military personnel to resist orders and form unions to
protect their rights.
On August 5, the junta issued a stern warning to
extremist groups who are discrediting the armed forces,
and President Spinola strongly praised the armed forces
last weekend in a speech to a paratroop regiment.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 9, 1974
EGYPT-LIBYA
Cairo has decided to back up its warnings to Tripoli
by withdrawing .some of its military personnel on loan to
the Libyan armed forces. Any significant recall of Egyp-
tian advisers and support personnel will cause disloca-
tions in Tripoli's already inadequate defense capabilities.
The size of the Egyptian military establishment in
Libya has been difficult to determine since the October
war, when Cairo recalled selected air and ground force
personnel based in Libya,
The removal. of Egyptian advisers and technical per-
sonnel would result in the gradual deterioration of
Libyan maintenance, training, and operations, and inhibit
Tripoli's plans for expansion of its armed forces. The
Libyan Mirage force probably will be affected only
slightly, however, as most of the necessary foreign as-
sistance is provided by France and Pakistan.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 9, 1974
The Libyan leadership announced yesterday that it
had refused to accept President Sadat's letter, released
earlier this week, describing it as "exceeding" customary
diplomatic exchanges. The Tripoli media, while denouncing
the Sadat letter, have softened their tone, and in one
radiobroadcast yesterday suggested that Sadat has
simply been misled by Egyptian propagandists. The Egyp-
tian press has continued its shrill attacks on Libya,
but is now putting greater emphasis on Sadat's call in
the letter for a new dialogue.
Neither side shows signs of trying to avoid what
appears to be a collision course. Sadat is fed up with
Qadhafits meddling in Egypt's affairs and apparently
intends to stand by his demand that Tripoli either
abandon its anti-Egyptian policies or face repercussions
that could seriously hurt Libya's military posture.
Qadhafi, on the other hand, is not likely to knuckle
under to anything resembling an Egyptian ultimatum,
which in his view compromises Libya's principles.
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The Soviet mine-sweeping operation in the Strait
of Gubal may be extended well beyond the projected com-
pletion date of August 15. Bad weather has caused delays
in the clearing operations in the main channel, and work
in this area may not be completed until September 1.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 9, 1974
Romanian Foreign Minister Macovescu's current visit
to China and the accompanying outpouring of mutual praise
are drawing reaction from Moscow.
As Macovescu was being feted in Peking, the Soviets
broadcast to China a personal attack on his host, Foreign
Minister Chi Peng-fei, accusing him of anti-Socialist
and anti-Soviet attitudes that were inimical to detente.
The broadcast went on to criticize the Chinese leadership
in general for attempting to cloud the European political
climate.
While Macovescu was meeting with Chi, the Soviets
directed an implied warning to the Romanians. In a
broadcast, Moscow noted the best guarantee of Romanian
independence lies in ties to the socialist community and
avoidance of Maoist attempts to undermine Soviet-Romanian
friendship.
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 9, 1974
Moscow may also have been piqued because the Roma-
nians have recently banned several communist periodicals
that contain propaganda incompatible with Romanian pol-
icies, particularly material attacking Peking. Most re-
cently, an article in Problems of Peace and Socialism
by Boris Ponoma.rev, candidate member of the Soviet Polit-
buro was banned because of its "anti-Chinese bias."
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National Intelligence Bulletin August 9, 1974
PAKISTAN
Prime Minister Bhutto is moving forcefully against
the National Awami Party, the most important of the op-
position parties in Pakistan.
In the North-West Frontier, the government had ear-
lier arrested several party members, including three
provincial assembly members, for engaging in "subversive
activities." In a thinly veiled allusion to Afghanistan.,
the national and provincial internal security ministers
have charged that rank-and-file National Awami Party
workers and members of the Pakhtoon Zalme--an outlawed
militant youth group associated with the party--have
received terrorist training from a foreign country.
A spate of bombings took place in the North-West
Frontier last month, and the US embassy in Islamabad
speculates that: Awami leaders may have given radical
party members the go-ahead to carry out the incidents.
A provincial minister recently told the US consul in
Peshawar, however, that the government had no conclusive
proof that the opposition was actually responsible for
the bombings.
Exchanges between Bhutto and Abdul Wali Khan have
grown more abusive in recent weeks. Wali Khan has
accused the Prime Minister of seeking to impose a dic-
tatorship on Pakistan. In turn, Bhutto's recent speeches
have barely stopped short of branding Wali Khan as a
traitor and tool of India and Afghanistan.
Bhutto's party has a heavy majority in the national
parliament, and. he has managed to manipulate the Awami
Party out of power in its provincial strongholds. He
apparently is trying to project an image of a strongman
who will tolerate no opposition.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 9, 1974
Serious monsoon flooding has caused severe damage,
particularly in eastern areas. During the past three
weeks, retail rice prices in Dacca rose 21 percent in
anticipation of possible food shortages. The waters are
receding in the northern areas of the country, but the
flooding has aggravated an already bleak economic situa-
tion.
Yields from the rice crop, which normally account
for 25 percent of total foodgrain production, will be
reduced this summer, and the quality affected. Prospects
for the main rice crop to be harvested in December can-
not yet be assessed; even where fields have been sub-
merged, rice can survive for several days.
Farmers earlier this year responded to food short-
ages and higher rice prices by shifting land from jute
to rice. The increased rice acreage, however, is not
sufficient to compensate for flood losses. Moreover,
there will be reductions in the sale of jute and jute
products, which normally account for 90 percent of export
earnings. A critical foreign exchange shortage will be
intensified, and Dacca will be unable to import sufficient
food.
Prime Minister Mujibur Rahman has requested food-
grains and other emergency relief commodities from the
US and other donors. The government's capacity to dis-
tribute essential commodities without outside help is
questionable, however.
Mujib has said that floods are the greatest threat
to his rule since he became Prime Minister in 1972. He
believes the most critical period for the country will
be from September to December and that flood damage to
standing crops and rice stores will lead to shortages
and higher rices, which, in turn, will result in civil
disorders.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Czechoslovakia: Prague announced yesterday that 78-
year-old President Svoboda has suffered a relapse and is
back in the hospital. During most of the spring he was
under intensive care for "failure of his respiratory and
circulatory systems." Premier Strougal has exercised
Svoboda`s presidential duties--as provided for in the
constitution--since late March. Should Svoboda die, the
odds favor Gustav Husak to be elected president while
retaining his position as party chief.
August 9, 1974
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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