NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026700010002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: June 18, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 18, 1974
CONTENTS
CHINA: Leftists and moderates fight for control of
anti-Confucius campaign. (Page 1)
ITALY: Sardinia election results and political vio-
lence add to government's problems. (Page 3)
US-CHINA: US shipments of agricultural commodities
will resume. (Page 7)
PORTUGAL: Spinola trying to consolidate leadership
while facing cabinet resignations and labor disputes.
(Page 8)
ARGENTINA: Revolutionary group to expand operations
to rural areas. (Page 10)
GREECE-TURKEY: Air and naval maneuvers in Aegean
Sea cause no concern. (Page 11)
ORGANIZATION OF AFRICAN UNITY: Summit marked by
bitter wrangling over selection of new secretary
general. (Page 12)
OPEC: Ministers continue freeze on posted prices for
oil, increase members" royalty slightly. (Page 13)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 14)
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National Intelligence Bulletin June 18, 1974
The recent spate of political wall poster's attacking
senior Chinese officials by name appears to be the latest
round in the struggle between leftists and moderates for
control of the anti-Confucius campaign. New instructions
by the Central Committee issued late last month that au-
thorized attacks on provincial leaders seem responsive to
pressures from the leftists. The instructions reversed a
series of earlier directives banning attacks by name.
Within the confines of the new ground rules, moder-
ates in Peking seem to be trying to make the case that
national leaders, even if they double as province chiefs,
should not be considered fair game. New posters appeared
in Peking last weekend criticizing Politburo member Hua
Kuo-feng, who is also political boss of Hunan Province.
The posters, clearly the work of leftists, have since been
removed and replaced with others attacking the Hunan lead-
ership in general but naming no names. Criticism last
week of the Peking city leadership seemed aimed at another
Politburo member, but no names were mentioned.
Although the new instructions now carry the weight
of official party policy, they in fact have only caught up
with the actual situation. For several, months, many
provincial leaders have been attacked in wall posters in
open defiance of the earlier ban on such attacks. Most
of these officials continue to appear publicly and to
meet foreign visitors.
Chinese officials at both ends of the political.
spectrum seem unconcerned about. the recent flurry of
posters. Politburo member Yao Wen-yuan, a member of the
party's extreme left wing, told a foreign diplomat that
posters attacking individuals by name are permissible
even if some of the attacks are wrong. Yao reassured
his listener that "we know what we are doing." The re-
moval over the weekend of posters attacking a Politburo
member, however, suggests that the moderates are trying
to prevent "wrong" attacks.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 18, 1974
Vice Foreign Minister Chiao Kuan-hua, who is close
to Premier Chou En-lai, told another foreign diplomat
that the party Central Committee will ultimately decide
the fate of those currently under attack and that criti-
cism of specific individuals does not necessarily mean
that they will be purged. Chiao rationalized that such
posters were an example of "democracy,"
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National Intelligence Bulletin
ITALY
June 18, 1974
Left-wing electoral gains in Sardinia and further
political violence have added to the uncertainties sur-
rounding Italy's government crisis.
Final returns from the regional elections in Sar-
dinia--long a Christian Democratic stronghold--show a
7-percent gain for the Communists and a 6-percent loss
for the Christian Democrats, Italy's largest party, com-
pared to the last regional elections in 1969. Large
shifts in Italian electoral patterns are unusual, and
the Sardinian results will affect Prime Minister Rumor's
efforts to resolve the quarrel between his Christian
Democratic Party and the Socialists over the government's
austerity program.
Rumor will meet today with the major leaders of the
ruling center-left parties in another attempt to hold
his government together. The soundings Rumor took over
the weekend led him to believe that a compromise over
the issues that divided the coalition was possible.
The Sardinian electoral results, however, may dis-
pel his optimism and stiffen Socialist opposition. The
Christian Democrats have been on the defensive since
their defeat in the divorce referendum last month. The
Socialists and other left-wing parties will interpret
the Sardinian results as an indication of a trend away
from the Christian Democrats that is not confined to
the emotional divorce issue.
Voters apparently are directing their discontent at
the dominant Christian Democrats because the party has
not been able to control the rising cost of living or
political terrorist activity. This image of a govern-
ment that has lost control was accentuated yesterday
when two neo-facist leaders were assassinated in their
office in Padua. Neo-fascist party leader Giorgio
Almirante issued a statement: claiming the incident dem-
onstrates that "Italy is living in a situation of civil
war."
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National Intelligence Bulletin June 18, 1974
The gravity of Italy's political and economic
problems appears to be the only factor favoring Rumor's
chances of reaching an accord today with his center-left
partners. Any such agreement will be built on fragile
foundations, however, and could easily unravel, the first
time a decision is needed on a contentious i sue
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 18, 1974
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China and the US have reached compromises on the
vexing issue of grain contamination that will permit a
resumption of US agricultural commodity shipments to
China.
Wheat deliveries of about 1.8 million tons under
existing contracts, curtailed because of Peking's rejec-
tion of cargoes containing traces of contamination, are
being resumed. Shippers are expected to introduce new
procedures to ensure that deliveries are free of contam-
ination. In return, China gave an unwritten promise
that occasional cargoes of infected wheat will not be
rejected.
In another move, Peking has agreed to accept 600,000
tons of US soybeans in lieu of 1.2 million tons of US
corn remaining to be delivered under an existing con-
tract. Deliveries of corn ran into a snag because the
Chinese complained that it was too wet for human consump-
tion and that it contained too much foreign matter.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
PORTUGAL
June 18, 1974
President Spinola continues to stump the country
trying to consolidate his leadership in the midst of labor
disputes and reported resignation threats by members of
his cabinet.
His latest series of speeches was to military units,
to whom he continues to stress the need for order, dis-
cipline, and military vigilance against extremists. He
appears to be more concerned about extremists on the left
than on the right.
Spinola's personal appeal to the rank and file is
designed to ensure his control over the military and the
Armed Forces Movement of younger officers who planned
the coup that overthrew the Caetano regime. The movement
is still an unknown quantity, and some members may be
sympathetic to leftist ideology.
Meanwhile, the government is still taking a firm
hand against labor disputes and activities by far-left
groups considered detrimental to the country. Last week,
it succeeded in forcing television agency employees to
agree that TV programming is too important to be made
the sole responsibility of the TV station's employees.
For the moment, the government has succeeded in prevent-
ing unfettered leftist control of TV and radio by estab-
lishing the right of government supervision of program
content.
The only present work stoppage of major importance
is the postal workers' strike, which began yesterday.
The government issued a communique criticizing the strike,
promising a study of worker grievances, and warning that
it will show firmness in order to assure normalcy of the
life of the country.
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Spinola may
tions in the cabi
Carlos. The most.
also be faced with possible resigna-
net, including Prime Minister Palma
Tessin difference may be with Foreign
Minister Soares.
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Spinola wants self-determination for the territories
in a referendum to be held at some indefinite date, while
Soares and his Socialist Party want more immediate steps
to be taken that would lead to independence.
The talks with the Portuguese Guinea rebels have
been suspended, however, and Soares' statement in Algiers
that he would go next to Ottawa to attend the NATO con-
ference may postpone a decision on overseas policy.
According to press reports, the Portuguese military
command in Angola has reached agreement with one of the
guerrilla groups to suspend hostilities. The agreement
has little more than public relations value, however,
inasmuch as the rebel band in question is the smallest
of three such groups operating against the Portuguese in
Angola. The Portuguese have had no contacts yet with
the other two groups.[
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ARGENTINA
The Marxist People's Revolutionary Army (ERP) re-
cently announced plans to form rural guerrilla fronts,
following four years of major successes in urban subver-
sion. The terrorist leaders apparently intend to concen-
trate both on increasing internal activities and strength-
ening ties with similar groups in neighboring countries.
According to a communique signed by guerrilla leader
Roberto Santucho, the move to develop an operating capa-
bility in the countryside will enable his organization to
maintain closer contact with subversive groups in neigh-
boring countries and "fan the flames of armed socialist
revolution across South America." The communique stated
that part of the funds obtained in the ransom of Exxon
executive Victor Samuelson had been distributed to these
groups.
The ERP announced earlier this year that it was es-
tablishing a coordinating junta with marxist organizations
in Chile, Bolivia, and Uruguay, but there has been little
evidence until recently of increased activity.
The simultaneous development of urban and rural guer-
rilla fronts may also represent a propaganda effort to
point up embarrassing failures of recent security operations.
Last month, hundreds of police and soldiers raided a rural
guerrilla base in northwest Argentina. The widely publi-
cized operation came to an embarrassing end when the ERP
temporarily seized the town. from which the security forces
had operated.
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Despite the new emphasis on rural guerrilla fronts,
it is unlikely that the ERP will shift its main focus
away from the cities. Rural areas could, however, serve
as a temporary haven should the government's counter-ter-
rorist program eventually prove more successful. Rural.
insurgencies in other Latin countries have generally failed
for lack of local support.
GREECE-TURKEY
Ankara has announced that a joint air and naval ex-
ercise will begin today in the Aegean Sea. Athens, mean-
while, has just completed a three-day exercise in the same
waters. These moves come at a time when both sides are
seeking to strengthen their claims in the Aegean before
the Law of the Sea Conference begins on Thursday in
Caracas. US attaches in Athens and Ankara report that
both governments are viewing the maneuvers calmly and
that neither anticipates a military incident.
The Greek and Turkish foreign ministers, in Ottawa
for the NATO Ministerial Conference, may debate the sea-
beds issue today. Ankara has been concerned over reports
that Athens intended to declare a 12-mile territorial
limit,
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National Intelligence Bulletin
ORGANIZATION OF AFRICAN UNITY
June 18, 1974
The organization's 11th annual summit meeting last
week in Mogadiscio was marked by bitter and protracted
wrangling over the selection of a new secretary general.
William Eteki, a Cameroonian, was finally approved as a
compromise choice after an unprecedented number of ballots
revealed that the summit leaders were unable to agree on
either the Somali or Zambian foreign ministers, the two
leading candidates. The election was necessary because
the previous secretary general recently resigned.
Few details have emerged from the marathon 14-hour
session in which Eteki was chosen, but some of the OAU's
long-standing internal strains apparently surfaced and
created bitter feelings. A number of French-speaking
African leaders reportedly opposed the Zambian, a possible
reflection of the historical and cultural differences be-
tween English-and French-speaking OAU members. The des-
ignation of Somali President Siad as OAU chairman for the
coming year may have prompted the delegates to reject the
Somali foreign minister for the organization's top admin-
istrative job.
Differences between African and Arab states may also
have played a part in the defeat of the Somali candidate,
who was supported by the OAU's Muslim members. Although
the Arabs pledged after the October war to assist those
African states hurt by high oil prices, African dissatis-
faction with the aid received thus far was obvious at the
summit. Prior to the meeting, the Arabs increased their
aid offer to avoid any direct confrontation, but they
still refuse to lower oil prices despite repeated urgings
from the Africans.
In response to the events in the Portuguese terri-
tories since the coup in Lisbon, the OAU reaffirmed its
strong support of the anti.-Portuguese liberation move-
ments and called upon Lisbon to recognize the rebel state
of "Guinea-Bissau" and the right of independence for
Mozambique and Angola. The summit leaders, however, were
unable to find a formula to unite the three competing
Angolan liberation movements. A meeting has been sched-
uled for June 21 in Zambia to try and bring the three
groups together.
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The US received less criticism than it has at previ-
ous summit sessions, probably a reflection of recent
changes in Portuguese Africa and the Middle East./
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
at its quarterly meeting of ministers in 'Quito, Ecuador,
agreed to continue the freeze on posted prices for oil
and to increase members' royalty take by 2 percent--a
hike of about one quarter of a cent per gallon.
The agreement was a compromise between Saudi Arabia,
which had sought a reduction in posted prices, and 12
other members that had sought a jump in posted prices
and government receipts of from three to ten cents per
gallon. Saudi Petroleum Minister Yamani noted that
Saudi Arabia opposed even the small increase in royal-
ties, but conceded that higher prices for Saudi oil
would result from the OPEC action.
The OPEC agreement will go into effect at the be-
ginning of July and will cover a three-month period.
The international oil. companies can be expected to pass
the price increase along to consumers. One OPEC offi-
cial said that posted prices may go up again in the
fourth quarter if the present rates of inflation con-
tinue in the industrial world.
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Netherlands: Defense Minister Vredeling has vowed
that the Netherlands will not unilaterally reduce its
ground forces committed to NATO as long as the NATO and
Warsaw Pact states are unable to reach agreement in the
force reduction talks in Vienna. One of the assumptions
of a plan to reduce Dutch forces by 13 percent has been
that Warsaw Pact reductions under MBFR would first be
agreed to. Vredeling made the pledge to Eurogroup defense
ministers last Thursday in Brussels where the Dutch plan
was again sharply criticized. The extent of the proposed
cuts has been opposed by Vredeling and other moderates in
the Dutch cabinet. The North Atlantic Council is expected
to express its views before the Dutch parliament recesses
on June 27. The council report to The Hague will probably
voice strenuous Allied objections to the plan.
Japan-China: Tokyo apparently wants to adjourn the
stalled fishing rights negotiations with Peking until this
fall, or, perhaps at the earliest, until completion of the
Law of the Sea Conference which begins this week in Cara-
cas. The talks are deadlocked because China insists on
certain catch limitations and supports a fisheries juris-
diction zone of some 200 miles offshore. Talks will be-
gin in Tokyo next month on a shipping and navigation
agreement between the two countries.
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