NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026600010041-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 41
• Publication Date: June 7, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
NAVY review(s) completed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 7, 1974
CONTENTS
SOUTH VIETNAM: Saigon agrees to restore diplomatic priv-
ileges and immunities to Communists. (Page 1)
USSR: Jewish emigration to Israel declines. (Page 2)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: First Council sessions since new
governments took power. (Page 5)
BURMA: Labor violence erupts in Rangoon. (Page 8)
PORTUGAL: Problems surface in Lisbon's smaller colonies.
(Page 12)
UK - ITALY - WEST GERMANY: Initial flight of European
Multirole Combat Aircraft delayed. (Page 17)
JAPAN - SOUTH KOREA: Trial of Korean opposition leader
reopens controversy with Japan. (Page 18)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 24)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 7, 1974
South Vietnam's chief delegate to the Joint Military
Commission announced today that Saigon has agreed to re-
store diplomatic privileges and immunities to the Com-
munists in the hope of getting talks with them resumed
in Paris and in Saigon.
The Communists have not reacted to the offer, and
there is no guarantee they will accept. If they do not,
Saigon will be able to place the blame on the Communists
for boycotting the talks, and hopefully improve Saigon's
image abroad--especially in the US.
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National Intelligence Bulletin June 7, 1974
The number of Soviet Jews receiving exit visas for
Israel in May--about 1,500--was one third less than in May
1973. Departures for the first five months of 1974 are
now 27 percent below the same period in 1973.
Soviet officials consistently have taken the line
that this trend results from a decline in enthusiasm for
emigration to Israel, which they attribute to the October
war and to problems of assimilation in Israel. Other
observers, particularly the Dutch consul in Moscow who
processes Israel-bound emigrants, believe there are more
plausible explanations for the current decline.
--Many of those whom the Soviets were most willing
to see depart--the poorly educated Jews from Georgia
and western border areas annexed after World War II--
have already left.
--High application fees--more than $1,200 per per-
son--and tightened application procedures dis-
courage many.
--A media campaign stressing the alleged hardships
emigrants face in Israel may be having an impact.
Israeli officials concede there is rising discontent
among new arrivals over housing and employment, but
argue that this has increased the number of Israel-
bound Jews who change their destination once out of
the Soviet Union. Israelis believe destination
changes have increased threefold since last year.
There is no evidence that the rate of outright visa
refusal has risen much above the previously estimated
5-10 percent in Israel-bound cases. By using other pres-
sures, however, the Soviets have slowed the rate of ap-
')lications. The Dutch believe there are still some 160,000
'soviet Jews who are considering application for exit per-
mission.
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National Intelligence Bulletin June 7, 1974
By slowing the emigration rate, the Soviets probably
intend to express displeasure with US failure to grant
the USSR most-favored-nation status. They could make a
dramatic gesture by allowing a large number of Jews to
leave at the time of the summit meeting, but this would
undercut the Soviet line that the recent drop in departures
is due to declining interest in emigration./ 25X1
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 7, 1974
The EC Council sessions this week--the first since
the advent of new governments in Bonn and Paris--showed
signs of the community's "new ;pragmatism." Although all
the difficult decisions facing the EC remain to be made,
the meetings may have succeeded in lifting some of the
gloom that has hung over the community for many months.
British Foreign Secretary Callaghan, as expected,
took a more conciliatory line on London's requests to
improve the terms of its membership. The relative ease
with which a study of Britain's financial contribution
was remanded to the EC Commission--under the cover of an
examination of the community's economic and financial
situation--resulted in part from understandings reached
over the weekend between Chancellor Schmidt and President
Giscard d'Estaing, and subsequent German lobbying with
Callaghan to avoid open affronts to the EC treaty.
Tough bargaining nevertheless lies ahead, and French
Prime Minister Chirac made clear in the National Assembly
on Wednesday that Paris will look very hard at London's
efforts to ease its EC burden. There is also growing
impatience in Bonn with mortgaging EC progress to the
domestic political problems of the Wilson government.
The continuing strength of anti-EC feeling in Britain
makes it all the more necessary for London to make head-
way in Brussels on its demands for "renegotiation."
The EC finance ministers yesterday addressed the
question of credit facilities that would be open to
member countries facing a financial squeeze. The Com-
mission has proposed such machinery as part of the
strengthened economic and monetary policy coordination
measures generally deemed necessary. This is also con-
sidered an essential prerequisite to relaunching a joint
float of all EC currencies, though resurrection of the
joint float seems out of the question for the foreseeable
future.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 7, 1974
In the meantime, this mechanism would serve to pro-
vide financing to Italy and other members threatened with
payments problems, a need for which there is a broad con-
sensus. Germany, the main contributor to any such fund-
ing, is opposed to bilateral aid agreements, but may not
he averse to providing assistance through community ar-
rangements. Bonn would demand, in return, commitments
from the EC states to anti-inflationary measures. Such
austerity measures are at the heart of the crucial nego-
tiations now under way in Rome between the government and
labor unions. Paris may also find meaningful austerity
steps difficult to impose.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 7, 1974
?The government is facing one of the most serious
threats to domestic stability since President Ne Win came
lo power in 1962. Labor unrest in Rangoon is approaching
the level of a general strike. Burmese army troops fired
)n demonstrating workers yesterday, killing seven and
wounding 17.
There have been some signs of friction among senior
Officials over how to handle the problem, but the army
apparently is still firmly supporting the regime. Ne Win
;s now out of the country on a good will trip, and his
subordinates will probably do no more than try to keep
the lid on until his return in mid-June.
The strikes in Rangoon, which follow a series of
strikes in other cities, are over demands for larger rice
rations and other economic benefits. The workers appear
i_o be showing better organization as the disturbances
pread, but there is no evidence of any involvement by
he Communists or other organized groups.
The spread of the disturbances to Rangoon clearly
,.as worried the government. Authorities were able to end
some of the earlier strikes by promising to meet workers'
dmands, but if the unrest persists, troops are likely to
continue to use force to suppress the demonstrations.
Schools are already closed to prevent students from join-
.ng demonstrations, and doctors at Rangoon hospitals are
an alert under a "disaster plan."
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 7, 1974
The problems Lisbon faces in establishing a new re-
lationship with its large African territories has tended
to overshadow difficulties that are surfacing in some of
Portugal's smaller colonies.
Two representatives of the Lisbon junta arrived in
Macao last week during a minor rebellion among Portuguese
soldiers stationed in this enclave off the South China
coast. Apparently inspired by the new spirit of reform
in Portugal, the soldiers were protesting their poor liv-
inq conditions and the inefficiency of their superiors.
The garrison commander was sacked, but the two envoys re-
jected a proposal by a newly formed civilian political
group to dismiss the Portuguese governor. Peking, which
maintains a veto on activities in the colony, has been
satisfied with the governor's administration and has not
indicated that it wishes a change.
In Portuguese Timor, another Asian colony, Portuguese
authorities have promised to hold a plebiscite next March
to determine the status of their portion of the island;
Timor is in the eastern part of the Indonesian archipelago.
Indonesia has never officially recognized Portugal's
right to remain in Timor, but Jakarta has given no sign
that it regards the current situation as a good opportun-
ity to extend its rule over the entire island,
Stirrings have also been reported from Sao Tome and
Principe, a two-island Portuguese province off the coast
of central Africa. Several newly established political
parties have formed a front and have sent a message to
Lisbon complaining that all administrative posts are
still being held by officials appointed by the Caetano
Legime.
There are also signs of an independence movement in
the Azores Islands which are regarded as an integral part
of Portugal, The US consulate in Ponta Delgada expects
a manifesto favoring independence to be published soon.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 7, 1974
Perhaps as a prelude to the manifesto, the main newspaper
in Ponta Delgada published a series of editorials last
week expressing disappointment over the new Lisbon govern-
ment's apparent neglect, of the islands.
Independence fever also has spread to the Portuguese
resort island of Madeira and the oil-rich African enclave
of Cabinda, which is administered from Angola. According
to press reports, the Democratic Movement of Madeira is
evaluating the possibility of complete independence or
joining a Portuguese confederation. A similar movement
in Cabinda is demanding independence from Portugal and
Angola.
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EUROPEAN MULTIROLE COMBAT AIRCRAFT
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National Intelligence Bulletin
June 7, 1974
Engine problems have once again delayed the initial
flight of the European Multirole Combat Aircraft (MRCA).
This latest failure comes at a time when a decision to
authorize funds to continue the program is about to be
made by the three countries involved.
The aircraft has been undergoing extensive taxi trials
at its base near Munich, and project managers had expected
the first flight in late May. The flight was canceled,
however, because of a failure in one of the plane's en-
gines.. Rolls-Royce, the manufacturer of the engine,
claimed that the problem is not serious, but the flight,
already six months behind schedule because of previous
engine troubles, has been postponed for several weeks.
The flight scheduled for May had been intended to
coincide with the meeting of the three countries on the
project. Funds must be authorized soon for the second
phase of the plane's development, or it will have to be
scrapped. The next phase reportedly will cost the par-
ticipating governments the equivalent of at least $240
million. The UK and West Germany would equally share
about 85 percent of this cost, and Italy would contribute
the remaining 15 percent.
The West Germans and the :Italians are seriously con-
sidering withdrawing from the project and have already
begun looking for alternative aircraft. The British air-
craft industry wants to keep the project alive, but Lon-
don's need to cut back on defense spending makes the MRCA
vulnerable.
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!\Tational Intelligence Bulletin June 7, 1974
Seoul has reopened a controversy with Japan by
bringing South Korean opposition leader Kim Tae-chung
to trial. The Japanese government is being forced by
growing domestic criticism of Seoul's action to take a
Firm diplomatic stand,
Prime Minister Tanaka on June 5 publicly expressed
hope that Seoul would "keep its promise" to let Kim
leave the country. The Japanese government does not
want this latest episode in the Kim Tae-chung affair to
damage its close ties with Seoul, but the Japanese press
is giving heavy and critical coverage to Kim's problems.
Seoul, for its part, seems determined to go ahead
with the trial. By trying the popular Kim, along with
two other political figures accused of illegal political
activities, President Pak wants to drive home to his
political opponents that criticism of the government
will not be tolerated.
A high Japanese foreign ministry official arrived
in Seoul on June 6 for six days of discussions on the
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