NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026600010027-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: May 29, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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USIB
LINITED STATES
INTELLIGENCE
BOARD
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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AGENCY ARCHIVES,
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 29, 1974
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Parliamentary approval anticipated for Rabin's
cabinet. (Page 3)
CAMBODIA-CHINA: Ranking Khmer Communist completes talks
with Chinese leaders. (Page 6)
FRANCE: New cabinet is broadly based. (Page 10)
MIDDLE East: France may participate in Suez mineclear-
ing operations. (Page 13)
TURKEY-GREECE: Selected Turkish military elements on
alert. (Page 15)
SOUTH KOREA: Plans move ahead to try scores charged
with antigovernment activity. (Page 18)
SWEDEN: A promise of working majority in Parliament.
(Page 21)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 23)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 29, 1974
ISRAEL
Prime Minister - designate Rabin should have no
trouble securing parliamentary approval of his new cabi-
net, probably within a week.
Rabin last night informed President Katzir that he
had succeeded in putting together a cabinet to replace
that of Prime Minister Meir. Shortly before, his Labor
Party Executive Bureau and the Labor Alignment Knesset
faction voted, after a stormy session, to approve the new
line-up.
The last-minute controversy among party leaders cen-
tered on the exclusion of Foreign Minister Eban, who had
refused Rabin's offer to become minister of information
unless he were also given the post of deputy prime minis-
ter, now held by Yigal Alon. Rabin refused, apparently be-
cause Alon, who heads the Labor Party's leftist faction,
would agree to continue in the cabinet only if he remained
deputy prime minister in addition to becoming foreign min-
ister.
Three fourths of Rabin's proposed 20-member cabinet
are hold-overs from Mrs. Meir's outgoing government, but,
in addition to Eban, two prominent Labor leaders are not
included. Moshe Dayan, whom many Israelis hold primarily
responsible for the country's unpreparedness for the Oc-
tober war, will be replaced as defense minister by his
Rafi faction colleague, Information Minister Shimon Peres.
Labor Party "king maker" Pinhas Sapir, although a
Rabin supporter, will step down as finance minister. Sapir
may be seeking to avoid the pressure that is building as a
result of Israel's economic problems. He reportedly will
be replaced by Yaacov Levinson, a banker and political
newcomer.
Three portfolios--interior, religious affairs, and
welfare--will temporarily be held open for the National
Religious Party. Rabin still hopes to induce it to relent
on the religious conversion issue and rejoin the coalition,
thereby gaining an additional ten seats in the Knesset
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May 29, 1974
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and a comfortable majority. The coalition Rabin now
heads has a majority of only one in the 120-member Knes-
set.
Among the five new cabinet members is a minister
without portfolio, Mrs. Shulamit Aloni, who heads the
Citizens Rights Movement, a small liberal party whose
participation in the government coalition provides Rabin
with his slim parliamentary majority. Another new face
in the cabinet is that of 63-year-old Moshe Baram, the
long-time Jerusalem Labor Party boss and parliamentary
whip; he replaces Rabin as minister of labor.
Rabin is not expected to alter significantly the pol-
icies of Mrs. Meir's government. He appears only slightly
more flexible than his predecessor on Middle East peace
negotiations. Although Rabin can probably count on leftist
support in the Knesset on peace issues, his room for maneu-
ver will be limited by conservative Labor deputies and his
slim majority in the Knesset.
On domestic matters, Israelis will look to Rabin for
innovative approaches to such acute problems as inflation,
housing, and the need for greater social equality.1
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National intelligence Bulletin May 29, 1974
? CAMBODIA-CHINA
Ranking Khmer Communist leader Khieu Samphan's success-
ful talks in Peking appear to have aligned the Khmer Commu-
nists more clearly and firmly with China. While in the
Chinese capital, Samphan declared that Peking is "our most
reliable and solid rear area," and in a joint communique
issued at the end of his visit on May 27 he praised Chinese
leadership and policies.
While not ignoring Sihanouk entirely, the communique
played down his role in the "struggle." Sihanouk appar-
ently was not present during the substantive discussions
in Peking. Peking's treatment of Samphan has made it
clear that it sees him as playing a major role in any fu-
ture settlement.
There was no sign in the communique, however, that
Peking anticipates any early solution in Cambodia. The
document reiterated Chinese calls for an end to US "ag-
gression" in Cambodia and the withdrawal of US support
to the "Lon Nol clique" in order to enable the Cambodians
to resolve their differences independently. This long-
held Chinese position stops short of prescribing a mili-
tary solution and suggests that Peking has not yet ex-
cluded a negotiated settlement.
The communique disclosed that an aid agreement had
been signed providing for "gratis" Chinese military equip-
ment and supplies to the insurgents. The Chinese first
signed a separate military aid agreement with Sihanouk's
"government" on January 13, 1973. Shortly after the
Vietnam cease-fire was signed later that month, however,
Sihanouk claimed that Chou En-lai had told him that the
Paris agreement precluded any further direct Chinese
materiel assistance to the Khmer Communists. Instead,
Sihanouk said, the Chinese would give the insurgents
money ?to buy arms.
(continued)
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 29, 1974
The conclusion of the 1974 military aid agreement so
late in the year could mean that the level of Chinese sup-
port will be low. The pact probably resulted from in-
creased Khmer Communist pressure for support, especially
in light of what the insurgents consider to be continued
heavy US assistance to the Lon Nol government. Peking
may also, of course, be attempting to buy additional in-
fluence with the Khmer Communists.
Samphan is now in Hanoi, which is undoubtedly his
last stop on a two-month trip that has included "official"
visits to a dozen Communist and nonaligned countries. On
arriving in the North Vietnamese capital, Samphan received
another warm welcome from such senior officials as Pre-
mier Pham Van Dong and Defense Minister Giap.
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 29, 1974
FRANCE
The cabinet named yesterday by President Giscard is
the most broadly based government to rule France in al-
most two decades.
Key members of Giscard's Independent Republican Party
will be the political heavyweights in the 16-member cabi-
net. Party president Michel d'Ornano will head the In-
dustry Ministry, and Giscard's right-hand man, Michel
Poniatowski, the key Interior Ministry. Poniatowski is
the only member with the title of minister of state, which
entitles him to stand in for an absent prime minister.
Other Independent Republicans hold the economy and fi-
nance ministry and the agriculture portfolio.
The Gaullists did not fare as well. Although they
have five portfolios, including the premiership, no sig-
nificant leader of the Gaullist Party is a member of the
government. Prime Minister Chirac's support of Giscard
during the campaign has made his standing in the party
suspect. Only Housing and Equipment Minister Robert
Galley is a nationally prominent Gaullist, and the other
three Gaullists in the cabinet are party back-benchers.
Members of various centrist groups hold four posts,
with Jean Lecanuet--whose early support was critical to
Giscard's victory--as justice minister. Giscard paid
another political debt by awarding the administrative
reform portfolio to Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber. The
Radical Party leader represents the extreme left of
Giscard's supporters and has been a severe critic of
previous Gaullist administrations. The remaining three
posts are held by technocrats.
The new foreign minister, Jean Sauvagnargues,is a
career diplomat who is not affiliated with any political
party. He has been ambassador to Bonn since 1970. His
appointment, coupled with the close relationship between
Giscard and West German Chancellor Schmidt, suggests that
cooperation with Bonn, especially in the EC, will receive
high priority in the Giscard government.
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Approximate Location of Egyptian Naval Minefields
26600010027-7
Tel Aviv-YafoA
Alexa
Jmit df
Ismailia .
clearing operations
,
Deversoir
*CAIRO
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 29, 1974
MIDDLE EAST
At Egypt's request, France may soon become the third
nation to assist in the reopening of the Suez Canal.
The French foreign ministry has authorized the use
of 20 divers, provided that two French coastal minesweep-
ers can be used as bases for the divers and that the
French unit is integrated into the Egyptian group com-
mand. These conditions imply that the French want to
operate directly with Egypt, rather than be part of the
US-UK operation. Paris also stipulated that its officer
in charge must have complete authority over French opera-
tions.
Minesweeping operations in the canal itself are be-
ing conducted by the US and the UK and are nearing com-
pletion. The US ambassador in Egypt speculates that the
French may be given the task of clearing the Egyptian
minefields in the Strait of Jubal at the southern en-
trance to the Gulf of Suez--an area that is not included
in the US-UK operation. The French navy has .a highly
regarded minehunting and minesweeping capability which
could contribute significantly to the canal clearance
operation.
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BULGARIA
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Air base
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ITALY
SYRIA
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UNITED ARAB
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TURKEY-GREECE
Selected elements of the Turkish armed forces appar-
ently went on "standby alert" over the weekend. Although
the alert may be related to operational readiness inspec-
tions scheduled for this week or to pending exercises, the
activities could also be related to the dispute between
Turkey and Greece over oil rights in the Aegean.
activ-
ities of an alert nature took place at Turxisn alr Dases
located at Balikesir, Eskisehir, and Murted on May 25 and
26. US air force sources report that a tank regiment at
Ortakoy was issued ammunition on May 26 and had taken
up camouflaged positions.
The alert is not a general one and may stem in part
from exercises under way or scheduled. Press reporting
from Ankara indicated that Turkish navy units were
scheduled to begin exercising in the Aegean yesterday,
with air and ground force units also taking part. The
coming CENTO exercise, "Shahbaz," which will involve Turk-
ish, Iranian, and Pakistani air forces, could also ac-
count for some of the activity."
Ankara, nevertheless, may be taking precautionary
measures in response to bellicose statements in recent
weeks by the Greek press, as well as to reports of Greek
troop movements. Ankara may also be demonstrating a
willingness to back up with military force if necessary
its intent to explore the Aegean. The Greek note de-
livered to Ankara on May 23 suggested that Athens might
be prepared to talk about arrangements for holding dis-
cussions on the Aegean problem, but Greek Foreign Minis-
ter Tetenes told US Ambassador Tasca yesterday that
Athens saw no chance for direct contact before the NATO
conference in Ottawa or the Law of the Sea Conference
next month.
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National Intelligence Bulletin May 29, 1974
SOUTH KOREA
Seoul is moving ahead with plans to bring to trial
some of the more than 200 persons arrested in the last
several months for.antigovernment activity. The regime
on May 27 announced that 54 individuals have been in-
dicted for alleged involvement in a plot to subvert the
government. The plot was masterminded by the outlawed
National Democratic League of Youth and Students, branded
by the announcement as "Communist-controlled." The group
includes some prominent leftist intellectuals, student
leaders of the League, opposition figures from within
the Christian community, and two Japanese leftists ar-
rested for supporting militant students.
The ttials of those indicted will probably begin in
June and may last through the summer. The regime clearly
intends to demonstrate its resolve to deal harshly with
any opposition--a message it wants conveyed to its stu-
dent and other critics.
Given Seoul's claim that the accused were involved
in a Communist plot, government prosecutors can be ex-
pected to demand stern punishment under the present emer-
gency decrees, which can include capital punishment.
1 While it is likely that some
of the accused will draw long prison terms, any death sen-
tence will probably be commuted. Pak is fully conscious
that executions would create martyrs for the opposition
and hurt Seoul's image abroad. It is also likely that
Pak will order that the case of the two Japanese be han-
dled so as to minimize the possible adverse impact in
Tokyo. This may mean that the two will be convicted but
then be allowed to return soon to Japan.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 29, 1974
SWEDEN
For the first time since last fall, Sweden can look
forward to a period of political stability. This prospect
emerged after Prime Minister Palme concluded earlier this
month with one of the non-socialist parties an informal
agreement that will assure a safe parliamentary majority
for the government's economic measures. As a result of
this maneuver, Palme is no longer dependent on the Commu-
nists for support, and he has further weakened the non-
socialist opposition.
Palme managed to persuade the Liberals to break with
the non-socialist opposition bloc in negotiations on the
government's key economic program. With the Liberals' 34
seats added to his own Social Democrats' 156, Palme can
mobilize 190 of the Riksdag's 350 seats. This should en-
sure comfortable majorities for the government for the
first time since the election last year.
Now that Palme no longer needs Communist votes, and
with polls showing increased support for his Social Demo-
crats, he should feel no pressure to cater to far-left
views on foreign policy issues. The Communists remain an
ace up Palme's sleeve, however, in the event some Liberals
break party discipline and refuse to support the government.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
May 29, 1974
FOR THE RECORD
Israel-Syria-Lebanon: Fighting was at a low level on
the Golan front yesterday with only sporadic exchange of
tank and artillery fire. The Israelis shelled fedayeen
positions near Mount Hermon and exchanged fire with Leb-
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Australia: Opposition Liberal Party leader Snedden to-
day conceded defeat in the May 16 Australian general elec-
tion. Although the tallying is incomplete, Snedden said
that Prime Minister Gough Whitlam's Labor Party would only
have a tiny majority--perhaps fewer than five seats--in the
House of Representatives.
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