CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026400050001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 1, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
C &.
May 1, 1.9 7 4
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May 1, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Huge crowds expected to celebrate May Day
in n Lisbon. (Page 1)
FRANCE: Mitterrand gains ground, but obstacles to
victory are still sizable. (Page 4)
ETHIOPIA: Government gives in to military, dismisses
controversial minister. (Page 9)
CHILE: Government concerned that leftist extremists
will mount terrorist action on May Day. (Page 13)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 14)
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PORTUGAL: Huge crowds are expected to turn out
in Lisbon to celebrate May Day, which has been de-
clared a compulsory national holiday. The left, in
particular, is likely to use the festivities for a
demonstration of political strength. The junta has
urged the Portuguese people to respect the armed
forces on the streets and to celebrate in an orderly
fashion.
Political groups are busily organizing, issuing
manifestos, and collecting funds. Socialist leader
Mario Soares and Communist Party leader Alvaro Cunhal
are taking a prominent role. Each received an enthu-
siastic welcome upon his return from exile.
Student associations previously closed by the
Caetano government are reopening, and campus political
activity appears to be on the rise. Labor unions in
both Lisbon. and Oporto have fired leaders foisted on
them by. the, previous government and are electing new
ones.
The whereabouts of a number of prominent persons
associated with the Caetano government are not known,
but there have been no reports of their arrests.
Former foreign minister Rui Patricio collapsed after
the coup and for health reasons has been allowed to
remain in Lisbon, rather than :join former prime minis-
ter Caetano and former president Thomaz in exile.
May 1, 1974
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FRANCE: Francois Mitterrand, the sole candidate
of the united left, is gaining popularity, according
to opinion polls and informed observers. The statis-
tical obstacles to his winning a first-round victory
next Sunday, however, are still sizable.
In previous elections under the present system,
no presidential candidate has won the absolute major-
ity needed for a first-round victory. De Gaulle and
Pompidou, the front-runners in those races, gained
only 44 percent on the first ballot.
The best first-round performance by the left
was in the legislative election in 1973, when it re-
ceived just over 40 percent of the votes. Since the
left, even on the second ballot of either a presi-
dential or legislative election, has never polled
more than 48.6 percent of the vote under the Fifth
Republic system, it is difficult to see how it can
achieve an absolute majority on Sunday.
Mitterrand's best chance for a first-round vic-
tory appears to lie in an unusually high voter absten-
tion rate. Previous elections have shown, however,
that the rate of abstention tends to diminish as the
challenge from the left increases.
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In both
the 1969 and 1973 elections, opinion polls just before
the first-round election day overestimated by 3 to 4
points the percentage of leftist votes. Although
Mitterrand has gained several points since the first
polls taken after Pompidou's death, his current rating
is only 43 percent. The first round of the campaign
officially ends on Friday. 25X1
May 1, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ETHIOPIA: The dismissal of a controversial cabi-
net mini'-'ter may smooth over for a time the rift be-
tween important army units, but the military's lack
of central direction will continue to contribute to
the country's instability.
The government yesterday gave in to the demand
of the Second Division and dismissed General Assefa
Ayene from his post as minister of posts and tele-
communications. Assefa, who was chief of staff under
the former government, will remain in the custody
of the armed forces, pending investigation of the
Second Division's charges that he had tried to create
dissension among military units and had made plans
for the air force to bomb Asmara during the initial
military revolt last February.
The Second Division, stationed in northern Eritrea
Province,
raised the issue
publicly on April 28 by broadcasting its charges over
Asmara radio. Both the Fourth Division in Addis
Ababa and the Third Division in eastern Ethiopia had
opposed forcing Assefa's removal without the cabinet's
approval.
Further friction between units is possible, de-
spite the agreement on Assefa's ouster. The moderate
group, which holds an overall majority in the armed
forces, is comprised of a loose association of com-
mittees located in the various units; no
one group has assumed control.
(continued)
May 1, 1974
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Meanwhile, the army and police are taking a tough
stand against strikes and demonstrations. According
to one press report, troops late yesterday raided
the telecommunications headquarters in Addis Ababa
and arrested striking workers. The US Embassy had
earlier reported the arrest of some strike leaders.
Security forces are patrolling offices of other or-
ganizations affected by strikes that be an yesterday
in defiance of a government order.
May 1, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHILE: Extreme leftists may try some spectacu-
lar terrorist action to mark May Day. The government
is taking precautionary measures.
Leaflets signed by the Movement of the Revolu-
tionary Left and calling for an uprising against the
military government on May 1 appeared in Santiago
last weekend. A small faction of the Movement, de-
termined to take up arms against the junta, report-
edly has revived the People's Organized Vanguard--
a violence-oriented group that operated between 1965
and 1971. The government's stringent security meas-
ures have severely impeded efforts by leftists to
reorganize and to undertake opposition activity, but
the extremists are probably armed and capable of
carrying out hit-and-run attacks.
set forth as well.
ary. Outlines of a new labor-management code may be
The government has banned traditional May Day
workers` parades and has extended the curfew in the
Santiago area. Junta President Pinochet is scheduled
to meet today with worker representatives. He is
expected to announce wage increases aimed at restor-
ing at least some of the purchasing power eroded by
inflation since the last round of pay raises in Janu-
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International Copper: Members of the Inter-
Governmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries
(CIPEC)--Chile, Peru, Zambia, and Zaire--will meet
this weekend in Innsbruck, primarily to discuss
copper prices. the copper
exporters will seek to set a minimum copper price in
a range of 75 to 90 cents a pound. With world copper
supplies tight through 1974, prices are not likely
to fall to this range; the current price is about
$1.40 per pound. Nonetheless, once the precedent of
a minimum price is set, it could lead to fixing higher
prices in the future.
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May 1, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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