CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026400040001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 13, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 30, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
C 38
April 30 , L 974
OrTURN TO ARCHIVES 4 Off
R1 el`1
.19 ,1y7-y115
(1 g3
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
 Approved Fdr Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-41 25X1
April 30, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
25X1
PORTUGAL: Spinola continues drive to consolidate
junta's control. (Page 2)
VENEZUELA: President announces nationalization of
inter ts. (Page 3)
ARGENTINA: Extremists may provoke violence at presi-
dential speech. (Page 4)
25X1
CHINA: First-quarter performance of Chinese indus-
try apparently poor. (Page 8)
NORTH VIETNAM: Number-two man in military hierarchy
and heir-apparent to General Giap promoted to full
general. (Page 9)
IRAN: Prime Minister emerges from major cabinet
shuffle with more power. (Page 10)
25X1
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 15)
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T009754026400040001-4
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
 Approved Forl
*PORTUGAL: Lisbon was calm yesterday as the
military government under General Spinola continued
its drive to consolidate control over the country.
In a step designed to strengthen the reform
image of the government, Spinola held a 90-minute
meeting yesterday with representatives of political
parties that were illegal under the previous regime.
A spokesman for the parties described the meeting as
"very cordial." The moderates, however, appeared to
be more satisfied than the far leftists, who were
disappointed that Spinola refused to consult with
them on the formation of the government, and they
avoided a commitment to immediate decolonization.
Spinola did promise to appoint a cabinet and a
prime minister as soon as possible. The junta may
pick a cabinet after consulting with the young offi-
cers who headed the uprising on April 25. General
Spinola said yesterday that military officers will
fill only the military posts, adding that only a
cabinet made up of different sectors can guarantee
free elections.
On the future of political parties, Spinola
said that he opposed a proliferation of parties and
favored a system made up of a few groups representing
the most significant currents of opinion.
':Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the
analytic interpretation presented here has been produced by the
Central Intelligence Agency without the participation of the Bureau
of Intelligence and Research, Department of State.
Apr 30, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975t026400040001-4
25X1
25X1
 Approved For
*VENEZUELA: President Perez announced sweeping
economic measures yesterday, including the surprise
nationalization of the US-dominated iron ore industry.
Announcing action against the Orinoco Mining Com-
pany, a subsidiary of US Steel, and Iron Mines of Ven-
ezuela, a subsidiary of Bethlehem Steel, Perez said
that although concessions to mine the iron ore had
been granted to these companies until the year 2000,
"we are taking them back now." Both companies do
the bulk of Venezuela's iron ore mining and export
two thirds of their production to the US.
Perez did not go into details about how the
companies will be nationalized or what, if any, com-
pensation will be paid. Since the President's left-
of-center Democratic Action Party controls a major-
ity of seats in the Congress, the nationalization is
considered a virtual certainty.
The statist and antiforeign-capital tone of the
President's nationalistic speech as well as the
sweeping plans that he announced for restructuring
the economy caught many by surprise. In office less
than two months, and with a massive election mandate
for moderation, Perez had not been under pressure
from leftist or nationalistic groups to move against
these companies and was expected to focus his remarks
on "social justice issues."
Perez also announced measures to implement the
foreign investment code of the Andean Pact, which is
very restrictive of foreign investments. Perez said
a broad range of industries dealing in domestic goods
and services will be reserved to Venezuelans.
Foreign companies will have three years in which
to sell a minimum of 80 percent of their shares to
Venezuelan nationals. Among those companies affected
by the decree are the chain stores operated by Sears
and by the Rockefeller family.
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelligence
Agency without the participation of the Bureau of Intelligence and Re-
search, Department of State.
Apr 30, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For R41ease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A024400040001-4
 Approved For
Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A 26400040001-4 25X1
I
ARGENTINA: Extremists may provoke disorders
when antagonistic factions of the Peronist movement
converge on May 1 to hear Peron speak from the pres-
idential palace. A massive turnout of over 1 million
people is expected to assemble in the center of the
capital for what government organizers are billing
as a huge "fiesta."
The labor day ritual, which has traditionally
been observed with great fanfare by Peron's strongly
organized labor following, will occur at a time when
politically motivated violence has hit an all-time
peak.
Over the past week, leftists have been issuing
loud warnings of a possible shoot-out similar to
that which greeted Peron on his return last June,
when large numbers of rival Peronists were killed
and injured. Leftists have been under heavy fire
by the Peron government and can be expected to use
the rally for a show of strength. Recent arrests
of leftists from nominally Peronist guerrilla organ-
izations have been accompanied by charges of torture
and have further aggravated tensions within the
splintered Peronist movement.
Although the government is taking special security
precautions and is rounding up possible provocateurs,
weaknesses within the federal police establishment
will curtail its effectiveness in containing possible
disturbances. Peron and some of his top advisers
have been meeting with youth leaders in the hope of
heading off trouble, but a truce--if arranged--would
be fragile at best. At the same time, the Marxist
People's Revolutionary Army and other radical expo-
nents of violence are committed to antigovernment
action and are unlikely to be deterred by government
appeals for calm.
;continued)
Apr 30, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved Fora Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0;6400040001-4
 Approved For
25X1
25X1
Sagging police morale, frequent command changes, and
bureaucratic inertia have thus far impeded federal
and provincial police from developing a successful
counterinsurgency program. There is little to suggest
that this effort is really off the ground yet, and
results in any case are likely to be slow.
Apr 30, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00$75A026400040001-4
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
 Approved For
CHINA: Peking's skimpy first-quarter economic
reporting suggests a slow start for Chinese industry.
No national output figures have been released, and
only six of the country's 29 provincial-level admin-
istrative regions have cited gains over the first
quarter of last year. On the whole, the provincial
claims for percentage increases in industrial output
tend to be fewer in number and lower than in earlier
comparable periods of the Fourth Five-Year Plan (1971-
1975).
Shortages of raw materials and capacity constraints
in some industrial sectors undoubtedly are the basic
problems. In addition, a somber new tone in recent of-
ficial commentaries reflects anxiety over the potential
for disruptions posed by widespread factional in-fight-
ing associated with the anti-Lin, anti-Confucius cam-
paign.
Apr 30, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved ForlRelease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0264000140001-4
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release - 26400040001-4 25X1
NORTH VIETNAM: Hanoi has promoted General Van
Tien Dung, the number-two man in the North Vietnamese
military hierarchy and heir-apparent to General Giap,
to the rank of full general.
Dung, the youngest member of the Politburo, re-
portedly was once praised by Ho Chi Minh for being
more aggressive than Giap. Dung has been close to
First Secretary Le Duan over the years. A number of
authoritative articles by Dung that have appeared
in North Vietnamese military journals in the past
year suggest that he is an advocate of large-scale
conventional warfare. He is also closely associated
with the current effort to modernize the North Viet-
pamese armed forces.
Since Defense Minister Giap dropped from public
view late last year, apparently because of a serious
illness, General Dung has gradually moved into a
more prominent position. Dung's promotion puts him
on nearly equal footing with Giap, who until now
had been the only full general. in the North Vietnamese:,
armed forces. The promotion confirms that Dung is
being groomed to take over when Giap retires or dies.
Apr 30, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02Q400040001-4
 Approved F - 400040001-4 25X1
IRAN: Prime Minister Hoveyda appears to have
emerged from the major cabinet shuffle last weekend
with more power, but the Shah will still make impor-
tant foreign and domestic policy decisions. Hoveyda
reportedly has been given a freer hand to deal with
the problems of economic development and social wel-
fare.
The reorganization--the largest in more than ten
years--will primarily affect domestic affairs. There
is unlikely to be a shift in foreign or military
policy. Both the ministers of war and foreign affair$
retained their posts.
The new cabinet line-up is apparently intended
in part to establish the government structure to carry
out the Shah's grandiose welfare programs, which are
designed to mollify Iranians dissatisfied with the
rising cost of living. The Shah has already proclaimed,
free elementary education and free preventive medical
care for all citizens,
Several of the ministerial shifts appear to be
the result of personal power struggles. Jamshid
Amuzegar, for example, the former minister of finance
and Iran's spokesman on oil matters, has been named
minister of interior, apparently a demotion. Replac-
ing him is Hushang Ansari, who has evidently overcome
rumored differences with Hoveyda. Ansari, who has
been minister of the economy, will add finance to his
portfolio and, in effect, control the bulk of Iran's
economic machinery.
A new ministry of energy will probably pick up
Amuzegar's oil responsibilities, but it will be less
powerful than its title suggests. The minister, Iran
Vahidi, lacks stature and may have to compete with
officials of the National Iranian Oil Company and
similar organizations.
(continued)
Apr 30 , 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For R~ Iease 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02640P040001-4
25X1
 Approved For
Most of the new ministers are personally beholden
to Hoveyda. The Prime Minister has strengthened his
position by basing his cabinet selections as much on
loyalty as on ability. Among the new members, nine
are foreign-educated--four in the US--and all have
past government or private experience that relates
to their new positions. The Prime Minister may find
he has need of both their loyalty and their expertise
in dealing with Iran's economic problems. Given this
new mandate by the Shah, the Prime Minister will be
under considerable pressure to make early ro ress.
F77
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the
analytic interpretation presented here has been produced by the
Central Intelligence Agency without the participation of the Bureau
of Intelligence and Research, Department of State.
Apr 30, 1974 Central. Intelligence Bulletin 11
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02?400040001-4
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
 Approved For
North Vietnam: Shifts of civilian governmental
officials continue as North Vietnam seeks to strengthen
its management of economic affairs. Hanoi announced
on April 27 that two ministers were being transferred t,Q
other jobs and that Vice Premier Hoang Anh had been
relieved of his duties as head of the Central Agri-
cultural Commission. There is no indication of spe-
cific assignments for any of the three, and in only
one case was the new incumbent named.
Apr 30, 1974 Central Intelligence! Bulletin
Approved For R4
25X1
25X1
25X1
b040001-4 25X1
 Approved For 9
Caribbean Community Expands
Ij
Jl. BAHAMA
? ISLANDS
B\
HONDURAS
I SCOSTA RICA / \
lJ
PANAMA \
JAMAIC`-
BARBADOS Initial member, 1 August 1973
DOMINICA Member joining 1 May 1974
HAITI
- DOMINICAN
PUB C
PUERTO
Y
0 MILES 400
TRINIDAD A
TOBAGO
VENEZUELA
'GUYAN
SURINAM FRENCH
GUIANA
Approved For Rep
RICO u ~n
Antigua V
Montserrat d1 c
Oominiae~
St. Lucia
OZ
NETHERLANDS St. Vincenti
ANTILLES
~&Cu,racao Grenada '
25X1
25X1
 Approved For
Caribbean: Caribbean Community (Caricom) mem-
bership will expand on May 1. The original signa-
tories--Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and
Tobago--will be joined by newly independent Grenada
and the British dependencies of Belize, Dominica,
Montserrat, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent. Haiti and
Surinam have openly indicated an intention to become
members, and the Netherlands Antilles has indirectly
signaled its interest. Caricom, established by
treaty in 1973, includes a modified common market,
formerly called CARIFTA, coordination on international
issues, and functional coo eration in regional trans-
port and other services.
Chile: Santiago is going ahead with the return
of the Arica automotive plant to General Motors,
scheduled for May 1, in spite of Spain's displeasure.
Madrid has canceled credits of $45 million intended
for the purchase of three naval vessels. Madrid
retaliated because a Spanish truck producer--Pegaso
Corporation--had received from the Allende adminis-
tratinn the right to produce trucks in Chile.
Dubai-Italy: Dubai, a member of the United
Arab Emirates, has contracted to buy four Aermacchi
MB 326 dual jet trainer/light attack aircraft from
Ti-;;Iv. The purchase, Dubai's first of jet aircraft,
Apr 30, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Rel
base 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0264
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
 25X1
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4
Top Secret
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2003/12/03 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO26400040001-4