CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026300290001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 31, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 23, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Ton Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
:~ ~~ ~~:,
April 23, 1974
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April 23, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Labor Minister Rabin electE~d to succeed
Mrs. Meir as Labor Party leader. (?age 1)
ISRAEL-SYRIA: Fighting down from intense level of
last Friday. (Page 3)
CAMBODIA: Government faces precarious situation on
battlefront 2.0 miles northwest of Phnom Penh. (Page 5)
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CHILE: Santiago's plans to return ~~utomotive plant
to US firm hit snag. (Page 7)
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USSR-CUBA: Two Soviet warships apparently en route
to Cuba. (Page 11)
JAPAN: Strong performance by Prime Minister Tanaka's
party should improve his standing against critics.
(Page 11)
NIGERIA: Government reaches participation agreement
w~tTh three largest oil producers. (Page 12)
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ISRAEL: Labor Minister Yitzak Rabin? narrowly
elected yesterday to succeed Mrs. Meir as Labor Party
leader, faces a difficult, uphill struggle to forge
a new cabinet. His chances at this point are not good
and new elections this year may yet have to be ca=l.led.
Rabin's initial task will be to convince the
faction-ridden Labor Party to unite behind him, par-
ticularly the Rafi faction led by Dayan and Shimori
Peres. Peres, the only other candidate in the ballot-
ing yesterday, made a surprisingly strong showing? an
indication that opposition to Rabin within Labor is
fairly widespread. Rabin's other major hurdle on the
way toward a new cabinet is the reluctance of Labor's
coalition partners in the government--the National
Religious Party and the Independent Liberal Party---to
reconstitute the current Labor-led tx-ipartite coali-
tion.
A Labor delegation will ask President Katzir today
to entrust Rabin formally with the task of forming a
cabinet. Katzir can then officially give Rabin up to
six weeks to complete the task.
Rabin, only 52, represents a true generational
break with the country's aging leadership. More im-
portantly, he is relatively untainted by the contro-
versy concerning the government's handling of the war
last October. He has steadily gained popularity over
the months and, ,with 15-percent support, according to
recent public opinion polls, heads the list of those
thought best qualified to succeed Mrs. Meir. Party
leaders such as Finance Minister Sapir may therefore
believe that even if ;Rabin fails to form a new cabinet,
he is the best choice to head Labor's effort to regain
the popular support it needs to win the next election.
Rabin, a former ambassador to the United States
and Israeli armed forces chief of staff during the
1967 war, supports the government's current Middle
East policy. As prime minister, Rabin almost certainly
would not significantly alter Israel's current domestic
policies or its position on the requirements for a
Middle East settlement. He is, however, pessimistic
about the chances that Israel can ne otiate succe:~s-
fully with the Syrians.
Apr 2 3 , 19 7 4 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ISRAEL-SYRIA: Fighting on the Golan front yester-
day was down for the third consecutive day from the
intense level of last Fridays Syrian and Israeli
forces exchanged tank, artillery, and small arms :Eire
in the Mount Hermon area as well as along other sectors
of the frontm
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According to an Israeli military spokesman,
Syrian aircraft yesterday overflew portions of the
Israeli salient in what probably was a reconnaissance
missions Israeli fighters were dispatched to inter-
cept the aircraft, but no contact was madeo
Israeli military authorities have officially
denied a story in a Lebanese newspaper that Israeli
forces are OCCU in a hill in Lebanon west of Mount
Hermon?
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Apr 2 3 , 19 7 4 Central Intell~geruce .Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: Phnom Penh Area
~_ .~
~~;ompong
Chhnang
22 April
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CAMBODIAt The government faces a precarious situ-
ation on tie battlefront 20 mi:Les northwest of Phnom
Penhm The loss of Kompong Luong over the weekend Yias
reduced Cambodian Army holdings in the area. to the
former training complex at. Lovek, a few miles north-
west of Kompong Luongo with the arrival so far of
approximately half of the 1,900-man force from Kompong
Luong, over 3,000 troops and 25,000 civilians are now
isolated at Lovekm
The Cambodian Army high command will have to de-
cide in the next few days to Make a -stand at Lovek or
to evacuatem A successful defense would depend heavily
on the air force's ability to provide tactical and
logistic support If I;ovek is abandoned, government
forces could be extracted by helicopter or they may
attempt to move overland to the Tonle Sap River where
they could move north to Kompong Chhnang by boat?
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Apr 2 3 , 19 7 4 Central Intelllgenee Bulletin
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CHIZE: Santiago's plans i~o return an automo-~
tive plant in Arica to General Motors on May 1 have
hit a snag. The navy is concerned that return of the
firm would alienate Spain to the point of carrying
out its threat to cancel crediia of $45 million for
ship purchases.
Madrid is objecting to GM"s return to Chile
because Pegaso Corporation--Spanish truck producers--
obtained the sole right from the Allende administra--
tion to produce trucks in Chile. The Arica plant
was operated by the Allende gavernmen.t for more than
two years; control of the plant was turned over to
Santiago because GM was not willing to cope with
persistent labor problems. Because t:he Arica facil-
ities are in good condition, production could be
started quickly with little new investment. Ini-
tial plans call for the -firm to produce pickup trucks
assembled from parts imported .from GM's Argentine
subsidiary.
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Santiago has also been negotiating the return
of the Casablanca factory to Ford; .agreement is
likely soon. Because the Casablanca factory is being
used by Pegaso under the Allende contract, a sett:Le-
ment with Ford would further complicate relations
with Spain and possibly with Argentina.
Apr 23, 1974
Central Intell~genee Bulletin
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USSR-CUBA: Two Soviet warships now in the mid-
Atlantic appear to be headed for the Caribbean. Based
on their present speed, the warships---two Krivak-class
guided-missile destroyers--could arrive in Cuba for
May Day celebrations.
This visit to Cuba would be the eleventh by
Soviet ships, the first by a Krivak-class destroyer.
If the Soviets follow earlier practices, the ships
will operate with the Cuban Navy during part of the
visit.
JAPAN: The ruling conservative party's stronq_
performance in the local elections held on Sunday
should improve Prime Minister Tanaka's standing
against his critics in the party.
The conservatives captured a key Upper House
by-election, a gubernatorial election, and almost
all of the 23 mayoral elections. They were aided
by the lack of cooperation among the opposition
parties, and some of the mayoral victories came in
locales long dominated by the o~~position.
Although the conservatives have been losing
ground in local. elections over the last year or so,
Sunday's results underscore that the continue to
command a wide base of support.
Apr 2 3 , 19 7 4 Central Intelligence Budletdn
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NIGERIA: Lagos has completed negotiations with
the three~argest oil producers--Shell-BP, Gulf? and
Mobil--for 55-percent participation in petroleum
production, retroactive to April 1. Negotiations
with the other major producers--AGTP/Phillips and
SAFRAP--are in the final stages. The agreements will
raise total govermnent oil revenues to an estimated
annual level of more than $9 billion, up from an
estimate made earlier this year of $7.5 billion.
The companies have the right to buy .back 75
percent of the government's participation oil. Buy-
back prices were agreed to for April through June at
-about $13 per barrel, about 90 percent of the posted
price. With company equity oil set at about $9 per
barrel, Nigerian oil will cost the companies an
average of $11. Persian Gulf members of OPEC have
demanded buyback prices of 93 percent of the posted
price and Qatar recently ha.s sold oil to Shell at
that price. Persian Gulf oil currently costs the
companies about $9. Nigerian oil is more valuable
than Persian Gulf oil because it has less sulfur
content and costs less to transport to the US and.
Western Europe.
The Nigerian Government has withdrawn its plans
to take royalties in kind. All oil for direct sale
by the government will now be acquired thro-ugh par-
ticipation. After the companies exercise their buy-
back options, the government will have 13.75 percent
of total production--more than 300,000 barrels per
day--for direct marketing.
Apr 2 3 , 19 7 4 Central Intelligence Bullet{u
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