CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026300060001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 23, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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March 23, 1974
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March 23, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
USSR - CHINA - SOUTHEAST ASIA: Moscow would like to
stall significant improvements in Peking's relations
with its southern neighbors. (Page 1.)
NORTH VIETNAM: Authoritative Hanoi article suggests
reconstruction, not the struggle in the South, will
be priority goal for next couple of years. (Page 3)
ETHIOPIA: Government coping effectively with continu-
ing threats to authority. (Page 5)
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IRAQ: Government and Kurds preparing for possible
widespread fighting. (Page 9)
JAPAN: Speculation that Tanaka will visit several
countries this fall. (Page 11)
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CHINA - SOUTHEAST ASIA: Increased Soviet
attention to Chinese activity in Southeast Asia over
the past few months reflects Moscow's interest in
forestalling significant improvement in Peking's re-
lations with its southern neighbors. Moscow may also
be concerned that the Chinese seizure of the Paracel
Islands is evidence of an understanding between Pe-
king and Washington regarding the region.
The Paracels episode also plays on the Soviets'
long-standing sensitivity to any evidence that the
Chinese may be assuming a more aggressive posture.
The Soviets in recent months have shown particular
interest in the Burmese border area where Chinese-
supported insurgents have been active.
Moscow's propaganda mill has been using the
Paracels incident and Chinese support for insurgents
in Burma to exploit traditional. distrust of the Chi-
nPse in South and Southeast Asia.
On March 1, a long Pravda article traced the
Chinese role in Burma, and on March 21 the paper
replayed Western press reports that Peking had
moved several thousand more of its troops into north-
east Burma. China has responded with a People's
Dail article claiming Moscow has for years been
attempting to "establish hegemony" in Southeast Asia;
the area may become a focus of further propaganda
exchanges.
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Moscow's anti-Chinese propaganda is symptomatic
of an underlying concern that Peking's efforts to
increase its influence in South and Southeast Asia
are being abetted by its relationship with the US.
Moscow has also publicly charged that such
collusion has taken place in northern Burma, and has
argued that Peking's mild reaction to the Diego
Garcia base issue indicates that Peking favors an ex-
panded US naval presence in the Indian Ocean.
Moscow is, moreover, almost certainly aware that
China's efforts to improve relations with its neigh-
bors to the south have begun to bear fruit.
ai o icia s have
announced that the cabinet on March 20 recommended
lifting a ban on importation of Chinese goods, add-
ing that negotiations would begin soon on a formal
Sino-Thai trade agreement.
Mar 23, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin 2
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NORTH VIETNAM: An authoritative article by Vice
Premier Le Thanh Nghi reinforces earlier signs that
reconstruction and development of North Vietnam,
rather than the struggle in the South, will receive
priority for the next couple of years.
The article, published on March 14, was designed
to explain to cadre the decisions of the 22nd Central
Committee plenum held earlier this year. Nghi's ar-
ticle stated that the North's "key task" at present is
to rebuild and industrialize the economy. With un-
usual bluntness, Nghi asserted that the North "should
not be too bent on maintaining vigilance and making
preparations for war," lest the reconstruction effort
suffer. He indicated at more than one point that
this will be the line through 1974 and 1975.
Nghi emphasized that Hanoi remains as committed
as ever to the southern struggle, but he claimed that
North Vietnam can best fulfill its revolutionary du-
ties at this time by building its own economic
strength. This theme was stressed by party leader
Le Duan last spring, but pronouncements over the
last few months have fuzzed the issue. Nghi did not
rule out the possibility that once North Vietnam has
achieved a degree of economic strength--and perhaps
also once it has completed its current effort to im-
prove and modernize the armed forces--it will attempt
another major military move in the South.
Mar 23, 1974 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ETHIOPIA: The new government and the military
appear to be attacking problems inherited from the
previous regime and coping effectively with continuing
threats to authority.
Prime Minister Endalkatchew this week announced
the names of the members of a conference to liberalize
the constitution. The 30 members, who come from modern
and traditional.elements of Ethiopian society, include
imperial advisers, judges, academicians, businessmen,
and members of parliament, as well as figures from
the large Muslim community. The conference will have
six months to revise the 1955 constitution to provide
for parliamentary supremacy.
The Prime Minister has also filled the important
post of finance minister, thus nearly completing a
cabinet that is an improvement over its predecessors.
In an attempt to deal with the serious drought and
famine, the new government has assigned troops and
military vehicles to facilitate the distribution of
relief supplies. Although teachers and students at
Haile Selassie I University are still on strike, the
public school teachers' association has agreed to
send its members back to work, and secondary schools
in the capital appear to be functioning again.
The army seems to be operating effectively.
It put down an uprising by military orderlies at the
Nonetheless, the government is still faced with
serious problems. It must find a way to provide for
the raises the Emperor promised the military and some
civilians without adding to inflationary pressures
and social discontent. Other groups--such as civil
servants and farm workers--are already clamoring for
raises that the government would be hard pressed to
provide.
(continued)
Mar 23, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Unrest has also spread to rural areas. Police
reinforcements were sent this week to the area south
of the capital, where Galla tribesmen, probably en-
couraged by the recent unrest in Addis Ababa and other
cities, burned farms, killed livestock, and engaged
in general destruction.
In addition to these challenges, the new govern-
ment is still faced with an uneasy relationship with
the military dissidents who brought down the last
government and wrested major concessions from the
Emperor. The military appears inclined to give the
new government a chance, but they reportedly have
threatened to intervene again if the government fails
to live up to its promises.
Mar 23, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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IRAQ: Both the government and the Kurds are
making preparations for possible widespread fighting
in the near future. Baghdad has given the Kurds un-
til March 26 to accept the plan for limited Kurdish
autonomy that it decreed last week after the break-
down of negotiations with Kurdish leader Barzani.
The Kurds' clandestine radio has broadcast denuncia-
tions of the government's terms.
Reports persist of attempts to reopen talks be-
tween the two sides, but no progress appears to have
been made so far in resolving the impasse. Kurdish
spokesmen have denied earlier reports that Barzani.
had informed his military leaders and branches of
his Kurdish Democratic Party that a new agreement.
was being worked out.
Government forces are poised in strength around
the Kurdish-inhabited region, but they have not at-
tempted to regain control of key points along the
mountainous 200-mile border with Turkey that were
seized by the Kurds last week.
continuing to cleat
tive areas.
Meanwhile, the government is
urdish civilians out of sensi-
Before launching any major offensive, Baghdad
may first try to implement its autonomy plan by
establishing a puppet administration in the autono-
mous region that is to be allotted to the Kurds.
Such a move, however, would be strongly opposed by
most Kurds.
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JAPAN: Prime Minister Tanaka is thinking of
visiting Australia, Canada, Mexico, and possibly New
Zealand and Burma this fall. There is also some
speculation in Tokyo that he will undertake a Latin
American tour early in 1975. Tanaka will focus on
economic matters, including resource development,
in his travels. Most significant, perhaps, would
be further discussion with the Canadians of projects
for exploitation of the oil sand deposits of Alberta.
Leakage of Tanaka's travel plans at this early
date is probably intended to demonstrate that he
still. expects to be prime minister after this summer's
upper house elections.
Mar 23, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin 11
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