CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026200110001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 5, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
c ,~Q~
Mach 5, 1974
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March
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Prime Minister Meir to continue in caretaker
government until tomorrow. (Page 1)
PORTUGAL: Some signs Lisbon weighing advantages of
new erections in policy toward its African terri-
tories. (Page 3)
U5SR-BANGLADESH: Soviets will begin to phase out.
harbor clear ng team at Chittagong this month.
(Page 5 )
GUATEMALA: Government torn between accepting the
opposition's victory or manipulating the vote.
(Page 6 )
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 7)
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*I5RAEL: Prime Minister Meir has again reversed
herself and agreed to continue, until tomorrow, her
efforts to form a government. Mrs. Meir informed
President Katzir late yesterday that she would con-
tinue until the seven-day extension of the mandate
granted by Katzir last week expires on Wednesday.
Mrs. Meir apparently yielded to the entreaties
of other Alignment leaders who urged her not to give
up. She probably considers, however, that it is now
up to them to come around to her way of thinking and
is, in all probability, quite prepared to step down
should they refuse.
In that event, the possibility is quite strong
that new elections will have to be called or, less
likely, that a government of national unity with the
right-wing Likud will emerge. Pressure for a unity
government, primarily from Defense Minister Dayan's
Rafi faction, appears to be growing within the
Alignment, but such a move could split the party.
The left-wing Mapam faction, for instance, has
threatened to bolt the Alignment should this occur.
Although Alignment leaders, again with the ex-
ception of Dayan, do not favor new elections, this
option may become more attractive should the present
impasse continue. In the pre-election interim Mrs.
Meir would continue to head the present caretaker
majority coalition that includes Dayan and the Na-
tional Religious Party. The Alignment would have
more time to address the domestic political issues
that divide it and threaten to weaken further its
position at the polls. The government could also
in the pre-election period continue the disengage-
ment negotiations with the Syrians, confident that
its views on thi sub'ect are shared by a majority
of the Knesset.
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of Chis item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the [3ureau of Intelligence and
Research, Department of State.
Mar 5, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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PORTUGAL? The Caetano government is continuing'
to steer a middle course in its policy toward the
overseas territories, but there are signs that Lisbon
may be 'weighing the advantages of loosening its tight
griP-
In his recent annual addxess to the country's
only legal political party, Prime Minister Caetano
tried to appeal to critics of his overseas policy on
the right and left. He stressed that Lisbon will cones
time to promote a multi-racial society and a process
of gradualdecentralization of decision-making.
He acknowledged forationforscommunityaof1Portu?
he-had advocated a feder
guese territories. Caetano asserted, however, that
-while he is not opposed to this step, it is no ~.onger
possible today because "the world "would anly accept
a complete transfer of power to "terrorists." He
claimed this would result in the immediate expulsion
of w~iites, a solution that Portugal could not accept.
While Caetano's stress on not abandoning the whites
.was meant to reassure the right, the mention of a
federation of Portuguese states can be taken as an
appeal to the center-left, It poses the possibility
of a compromise solution more acceptable to moderate
Africans. and Portuguese who are discontented with the
cost of suppressing the insurrection in-the African
provinces.
A recent increase in attacks by black anti~Portu-
guese insurgents in Mozamb~.que provoked demonstrations
there by white, settlers against the lack of protection
by the armed forces. Lisbon is concerned over the in-
crease in sentiment for a "Rhodesian solution" among
Mozambique?s white population and has agreed to provide
the whites with arms and a radio network for protection
against further attacks.
The government has also tried to appeal to those
elements who think Lisbon should be more flexible.
During a recent visit to Mozambique, the overseas
Mar 5, 1974
Central Intelligence Bulletin ~
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minister spoke of granting increased autonomy to the
African provinces. Lisbon has also allowed a multi-
racial organization to be formed--The Group for a
United Mozambique--which is led by a black who is a
former member of a now-defunct insurgent group.
Although the new. organization has been described
in the foreign press as a "third force," which would
provide an "African solution" to Portugal's colonial
problems, Lisbon has been careful to limit its scope.
The group will operate as a "cultural" organization
in order to circumvent a constitutional ban on polit-
ical parties. Even though the group may have little
appeal in Mozambique at present, it represents a
small step forward and will upset those Portuguese.
who are opposed to any movement toward autonomy,
Meanwhile, a key member of the Portuguese mili-
tary establishment, General Antonio de Spinola, ha.s
just published a best-selling book that calls for a
new Portuguese constitution to provide civil liberties
and democratic institutions in all areas administered
by Portugal. It also calls for the creation of a
federation of sovereign Portuguese states. Spinola,
who is the vice chief of staff of the armed forces
and former commander in chief and governor of Portu-
guese Guinea, contends that a military solution to
Lisbon's problems in Africa is not possible. The fact
that the government has permitted Spinola's book to
be published suggests that Lisbon is willing to open
a dialogue on the question of Portugal's relations
with its African territories.
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USSR-~BAESH= The Soviets will: begin pha.sin.g
out t.he~r harborwc~earin.g and salvage team at Chits
tagon.g later this month Accor.d.i.ng to a press st.ate~
ment by the head of the Soviet team two sma1.1 coastal.
minesweepers will. leave on March 15~ and the entire
operation will be terminated by June 300
The clearing of the harbor of mines and wrecks
left by the Indo~~Palcistan war began in the spring of
1.9'720 and at one-time as many as 14 Soviet ships-~
minesweeperso salvaged and support units?~were in-~
volvedo Eight Soviet. ships are currently in Chit-~
tagong~ -The Soviets complet.e.d the major portion of .
the clearing work almost. a year agog bu.t extended
their stay to complete the taskm Only pre~1971 wrecks
remain and these reportedly do not interfere with port
operations
Despite the departure of-the naval salvage teams
the Soviets remain well entrenched in. Chit.tagong~
They have a consulate general and trade mission and
an air force advisory mission there In addit.i.ont,
the Soviets are engaged i.n a fisher.ie.s~assi.st.ance
program and are training the Bengalees to operate
Moscow supplied salvage equi.pmento The Soviets ma.y
also soon begin a project. for mapping the coastal. and
inland waterways of Banglade~ho Such an undertaking
probably would. involve the Soviet Nav and take sev~
eral years to complete
Mar 5 ~ 19?74
Central Intelligence Bulletin 5
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GUATEMALA: The Arana government, apparently
convinced Tt~a-t opposition candidate General Efrain
Rios Montt won Sunday's presidential election, re-
portedly is torn between accepting his victory or
sticking with an earlier plan to manipulate the vote
count and name its candidate, General Kjell Laugerud,
the winner.
Either course could prove painful for the gov-
ernment; accepting Rios Montt, a moderate leftist,
would be anathema to conservative military and ci-
vilian officials, and falsifying the election returns
to name Laugerud the winner might spark serious vio-
lence or split the army.
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After early returns were published showing
Laugerud in the lead, the government temporarily
suspended the publication of further vote totals.
The lack of official returns and the .opposition's
claims of victory brought partisan political ten-
sions in the capital to a high pitch, and supporters
of the rival candidates were involved in minor
clashes.
The government resumed announcing official re-
turns late last evening, giving incomplete figures
that put Laugerud slightly ahead of Rios. The fig-
ures differ sharply from those being cited by the
opposition, and thus the chances of trouble between
the op osin rou s remain high.
Mar 5, 1974
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FOR THE RECORD
North Yemen: President Ir.yani appointed a new
cabinet on March 3 headed by prime minister - designate
Hasan Makki, who has been serving as head of a care-
taker government since Prime Minister HajriAs removal
three weeks ago. Although about half of the ministers
are new appointees ~ the shuffle probab 1 does not
foreshadow significant policy changes,
DSSIt - Tndian Ocean: The Soviet Kresta II - class
cruiser, Admiral Voroshilov, will visit Port Louis,
Maurl.tius, fo~? several days beginning an March 7. It
apparently will take part ~n Mauritian Independence Day
celebrations on March 12~ This will be the second
time within three months that a Soviet warship has vis-
ited this ports Previous visits by Soviet warships
to port; Louis have been made at intervals of a year
or more, although naval auxiliaries have frequently
visited the port
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Mar 5, 1974
Central Intelligence Bubletin
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Top Secret
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