CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025900060001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 24, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
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C 201
December 24, 1973
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: Disengagement talks expected
to begin this week. (Page 1)
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LEBANON: Demonstrators protest sharp rise in cost
of living. (Page 6)
INDONESIA - ARAB STATES: Jakarta will petition for
end of Arab oil boycott. (Page 7)
CHINA: Peking's foreign trade increased at unprece-
ec~ennted rate in 1973. (Page 8)
SPAIN: General atmosphere somewhat more normal.
Page 9)
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C ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: The peace conference in
Geneva ended its two-day opening session on December
22 with an agreement to set up a military working
group to discuss the disengagement of Egyptian and
Israeli forces and an understanding that the foreign
ministers will be summoned to meet in plenary session
"as needed in light of developments."
Egyptian and Israeli military representatives
are expected to begin disengagement talks this week.
An Egyptian spokesman in Geneva indicated that Cairo
expects the meetings to begin "early" in the week,
while a member of the Israeli delegation assured re-
porters that Tel Aviv had no objections to entering
into the talks before the Israeli elections, sched-
uled for December 31. Israel's negotiator at the
now-stalled talks at Kilometer 101, General Yariv,
has expressed optimism that a disengagement of forces
might be possible, although he conceded that he ex-
pects a "very tough discussion." Egypt's official
spokesman told reporters in Geneva that he, too, sees
a "ray of hope."
The Cairo media have portrayed the December 21
session of the Geneva conference as crisis-ridden.
Major newspapers praised the tough stance taken by
Egyptian Foreign Minister Fahmi on the necessity for
full Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories,
emphasized the ways in which Israel's negotiating
position differs from that of the other parties, and
referred to the possibility of renewed fighting should
the conference fail. Al Ahram noted that the most
important achievement of the conference came on De-
cember 22 with the establishment of the military work-
ing group, but the paper added that this was not in
itself an indication that the conference had gone be-
yond what was accomplished at the talks at Kilometer
101.
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Jordan's delegates state they are pleased with
the results of the conference's opening session, but
privately they are apprehensive about the implications
of the decision to concentrate on the disengagement
of Egyptian and Israeli forces. Amman radio warned
yesterday that Israel is trying to break Arab soli-
darity, and counseled that the goal of the Arabs at
Geneva should be to negotiate a separation of forces
on all fronts at one time. The Jordanians are worried
that Cairo will reach a settlement of issues relating
to the Sinai and leave Amman alone to negotiate West
Bank issues from a position of relative weakness.
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tDamascus radio yesterday described the first
stage of the conference as the "beginning of the
end" and charged that Israel will be able to stall
progress in the military workin ou lust as it did
at the talks at Kilometer 101.
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The Israeli media devoted extensive--often live--
coverage to the proceedings in Geneva. Press report-
ing has been factual, with editorial comment urging
cautious optimism.
Jerusalem radio reported that the meeting on
December 21 between foreign ministers Eban and
Gromyko--the first high-level meeting between the Is-
raelis and Soviets since 1967--was held "within the
framework of Gromyko's authority as one of the chair-
men of the peace conference." An Israeli spokesman
added that Gromyko had received Eban at the residence
of the Soviet delegation, but indicated that the meet-
ing did not lead to any concrete or significant re-
sults. Asked later if the question of a resumption of
Israeli-Soviet diplomatic relations had been discussed,
Eban refused comment.
Soviet media coverage of the peace conference
has been generally optimistic. Nevertheless, Pravda
has cited the Israeli "expansionist spirit" an as
carried negative accounts of Eban's opening speech
and of Prime Minister Meir's statement at Haifa that
not all occupied Arab lands would be returned. TASS
has carried accounts of Egyptian claims to speak for
all Arab states, and has referred to the possibility
that other delegations, notably the Syrian, may
participate at later stages.
(continued)
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,According to the Middle East News Agency, the
number and intensity of cease-fire violations on the
Egyptian front increased significantly over the week-
end. Although most of the reported incidents in-
volved only small-arms fire, others, according to
the MENA account, were "severe battles" that included
exchanges of artillery, mortar, and tank fire. Other
sources have not confirmed such a significant increase
in military activity.
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LEBANON: Major cities were quiet over the week-
end, after four days of demonstrations protesting
the sharply rising cost of living. Prime Minister
Sulh pledged on December 21 that the government will
strive to lower food prices, but this statement ap-
pears insufficient to halt planning for a nationwide
general strike on February 6.
Violence began on December 17 in the northern
city of Tripoli, where antigovernment demonstrators
clashed with supporters of President Franjiyah. The
following day a general strike halted almost all
commercial activity in the city, and martial law was
declared. General strikes in Beirut and Sidon were
partially effective, despite the refusal of the trade
unions to participate. Throughout the week, security
forces were able to maintain a fair degree of control
in most areas, although at least four persons were
killed and eight wounded.
The demonstrations apparently were strictly
Lebanese affairs. None of the casualties is known
to have been Palestinian, and fedayeen elements did
not play a role in the violence.
Last week's protests focused primarily on the
government's lack of success in its war on inflation,
which has been waged with somewhat greater determina-
tion since an effective one-day general strike last
August. They also were an extension of student dem-
onstrations during the preceding week protesting
Secretary Kissinger's visit, the government's deten-
tion of a newspaper publisher, and the lack of edu-
cational reform.
Some opponents of the government have sought
to transform this popular discontent into a Christian-
Muslim dispute. They have had only limited success,
however, and it is unlikely that the current round
of protests will force major changes in Prime Min-
ister Sulh's six-month-old government.
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INDONESIA - ARAB STATES: Indonesia plans to
petition the Arab states to end their oil embargo.
At the Islamic summit meeting, scheduled for late
February in Lahore, Jakarta will argue that in the
long run the embargo harms the poor, developing coun-
tries more than the rich, industrial states that are
the intended targets. Jakarta intends to seek sup-
port for its petition from non-Islamic states, begin-
ning with other members of the Association of South-
east Asian Nations, in order to improve its claim as
spokesman for the interests of the developing states.
Although it is a major crude oil exporter, In-
donesia is suffering from sharply increased import
prices for fertilizer and other petrochemical prod-
ucts, as well as for finished industrial goods like
steel. Industrial states are passing along spiral-
ing energy costs to their consumers, forcing nations
like Indonesia to spend foreign exchange earmarked
for development projects.
Indonesia's petition is unlikely to affect deci-
sions on the oil embargo and may well intensify Arab
doubts about the sincerity of Jakarta's support for
the Arab cause. Indonesian leaders, however, think
it important to underline the point that the embargo
is a double-edged sword.
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CHINA: Peking's foreign trade increased at an
unprecedented rate in 1973. Preliminary returns indi-
cate that total trade jumped from $5.8 billion in 1972
to more than $8 billion this year. Imports increased
to about $4.5 billion from $2.8 billion; exports rose
more slowly--to about $4 billion, up from almost
$3.1 billion in 1972. Peking's trade deficit with
the non-Communist world probably was some $500 million.
Sharp increases in the volume--and cost--of im-
ported agricultural products, and accelerated pur-
chases of whole plants, highlighted China's trade
with the West. The US was China's largest supplier
of farm products in 1973, and moved up to number two
among Peking's trading partners. China's export earn-
ings were boosted by increased rice exports at sub-
stantially higher world prices and by price hikes for
most goods it sold at the Canton fairs.
Trade in 1974 will continue to increase at a sub-
stantial rate. Peking already has signed contracts
for larger quantities of agricultural products in 1974
than in all of 1973. Deliveries connected with China's
billion-dollar plant import program will begin next
year, and China will receive other machinery and
equipment worth more than $500 million which were
ordered this year. Trade with the US in 1974 may sur-
pass the $1 billion level, primarily because of con-
tinued large agricultural imports.
China's trade deficit with the non-Communist
countries will again be substantial; to finance this
deficit, Peking will make use of various short- and
medium-term credit arrangements.
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SPAIN: The general atmosphere has become more
normal following the funeral of Prime Minister Carrero
Blanco on December 21.
Generalissimo Franco, who did not attend the
funeral, was present at a memorial service on Satur-
day. He is expected to name a new prime minister
within the ten-day period specified by the constitu-
tion.
The police have identified six Basque terrorists
as the assassins and are taking steps to apprehend
them. All reportedly are members of an outlawed sep-
aratist organization known as Basque Fatherland and
Liberty (ETA). The ETA has been involved in a number
of bombings, kidnapings, and bank robberies in north-
ern Spain to dramatize demands for a separate state
and to raise funds to continue its struggle.
Meanwhile, the trial of the "Carabanchel Ten"
dissident labor leaders concluded Saturday with a
demand by the prosecution for sentences of 12 to 20
years for "illegal association." A verdict of guilty
is expected before the end of the year. The Spanish
Communist Party, of which most of the defendants re-
portedly are members, and other antiregime elements
had expected to use the trial to publicize the absence
of human rights and free trade unions in Spain. Their
hopes were dimmed by the greater publicity accorded
to the assassination, but a number of foreign observ-
ers who were present did hold a press conference in
Madrid. They issued, a statement attacking the gov-
ernment.for the conduct of the trial and for restric-
tions on political rights.
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FOR THE RECORD*
International Oil: The six oil-producing coun-
tries in the Persian Gulf will double their sales
price of oil to $7 per barrel as of January 1. A
full meeting of the organization of Petroleum Export-
ing Countries (OPEC) will be held on January 7 to
discuss the price rise. The Shah of Iran has indi-
cated that OPEC will call for a meeting with the US,
Western Europe, and Japan to determine a method of
fixing prices in the future.
Oil Embargo: US embassies in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait
report that Arab oil ministers will meet in Kuwait
this week to discuss the impact of the Arab oil em-
bargo. There are indications that Algeria will argue
for an easing of the embargo. Meanwhile, a high-ranking
Kuwaiti official has told US diplomats that quick prog-
ress on even one aspect of the Middle East problem
would allow Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to let up on the
boycott.
Islamic Summit: Pakistani Prime Minister Bhutto
has announced that Islamic heads of state will meet
in Lahore on February 22-23 to discuss the Middle East.
Their foreign ministers will meet on February 19-20.
There has been considerable slippage in the scheduling
of the summit, in part because several, important Is-
lamic leaders do not want to attend. Until Bhutto's
announcement, the meeting had been expected to take
place in mid-January.
",These items were prepared by CIA without consultation
with the Departments of State and Defense.
Dec 24, 1973 Central Intelligence Bulletin 12
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