CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025900040001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 21, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
"' State Department review completed
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
USSR-CUBA: Brezhnev may have postponed visit to
Cuba until mid-January. (Page 5)
SPAIN: Killing of Prime Minister Blanco confuses
succession question. (Page 9)
CHILE: Junta guards against terrorism. (Page 11)
ZAIRE: Government to nationalize petroleum distribu-
tion facilities. (Page 12)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 14)
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USSR-CUBA: Brezhnev evidently has postponed
his visit to Cuba from the end of this month to
mid-January.
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The official joint announcement last July--
made a few days after conclusion of the US-USSR
summit--said that Brezhnev would arrive in Cuba in
late December, in time to attend the Castro regime's
15th anniversary celebration. A Soviet Foreign
Ministry official has now told the US Embassy in
Moscow, however, that Brezhnev will be going to Cuba
about January 15.
Reports of a change in Brezhnev's plans began
circulating in Moscow last weekend as Cuban Deputy
Premier Rodriguez was leaving the Soviet capital to
return home. Rodriguez, Havana's primary negotiator
with the Soviets, ostensibly was in the USSR for
talks on bilateral economic cooperation, but his
primary purpose was to finish preparations for the
Brezhnev visit.
It is possible that Rodriguez could not assure
the Soviets that Castro would refrain from harsh
anti-US statements during the ceremonies. Aware of
US sensitivity to the Cuban situation, and that the
15th anniversary proceedings might get considerable
media coverage in the US, Brezhnev may have thought
it prudent to avoid any implication that he was
associating himself with Castro's statements.
Havana probably is not happy over the delay,
since it implies that Moscow is downgrading Cuba's
importance. Rodriguez indicated as much in his
Moscow departure statement, noting that Cubans are
"awaiting impatiently" the Soviet party leader's
visit.
Dec 21, 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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*SPAIN: The death of Prime Minister Carrero
Blanco yesterday complicates General Franco's care-
fully laid succession plans and compounds the un-
certainties of the post-Franco era.
Vice Prime Minister Fernandez-Miranda, who
automatically assumed Carrero's post in an acting
capacity, is a leading candidate for a permanent
appointment. As a close associate of the slain
leader and an advocate of his restrictive political
policies, Fernandez-Miranda can be expected to carry
on the regime's policies. He has not, however, been
known--as Carrero was for so long--as Franco's chosen
successor as chief of government, and he would be
more likely to be challenged by others wanting the
post. Although the constitution provides that within
ten days Franco must name a new prime minister for a
5-year term, the Caudillo may wish to continue Fer-
nandez-Miranda on an acting basis for a longer period.
In view of the possible threat to law and order
implicit in an assassination, Franco may conclude
that the premiership should go to someone further to
the right than Fernandez-Miranda. A possible compro-
mise choice would be the president of the Cortes,
Rodrigues de Valcarcel. If a military choice is
deemed advisable, General Manuel Diez Alegria, chief
of the High General Staff, is a possibility. Franco
might even decide to reassume the post himself.
The other part of Franco's succession plan re-
mains intact. Prince Juan Carlos, whom Franco
named in 1969 as king-designate, is still slated to
become chief of state when Franco dies or is inca-
pacitated.
The timing of the attack on Carrero--approximately
an hour before the opening of the trial of ten leftist
labor leaders--suggests that his death was caused by
extremists. The blast occurred about half a mile
from the court where the trial was to take place.
The trial was suspended temporarily, but late reports
indicate that it resumed in the afternoon.
(continued)
Dec 21, 1973 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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A tight security cloak has been thrown over the
city. All police have been recalled from holiday
leave, and the Spanish security service will probably
be rounding up, known extremists of all political
persuasions.
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
Dec 21, 1973
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CHILE: The junta appears to have the security
situation well in hand, but it is concerned that its
opponents will attempt to refocus international
attention on Chile with headline-making activity
over the holiday period.
Strict security measures remain in effect
nationwide, including spot searches of travelers on
trains and buses.
The left, however, still is far from ready to
launch a concerted guerrilla-terrorist campaign, but
extremists probably are capable of mounting a few
spectacular operations. The greatest danger may
come from the current wage-price squeeze, which
has placed traditional Christmas amenities beyond
the reach of many Chileans and could lead to a serious
increase in resentment of the government's economic
policies. F7 I
Dec 21, 1973
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ZAIRE: The government announced on December 18
that i`t will nationalize foreign-owned petroleum
distribution facilities.
The announcement was made shortly after Presi-
dent Mobutu returned from the Middle East, where he
obtained guarantees from Algeria and Libya that Zaire
will be able to buy its petroleum products directly
from these countries for the next five years. Mobutu
apparently feared that the Arab oil embargo would
force the distribution companies to divert supplies
from Zaire to countries facing oil shortages.
Nationalization will affect Texaco, Shell,
Mobil--all with sizable US participation--and the
Italian firm Petrofina. It will include all storage
depots and pipeline and other distribution facilities.
The government's announcement that the takeover will
be negotiated implies that the firms will be compen-
sated and that they may be asked to continue providing
much-needed management and technology. In the mean-
time, the government has ordered the firms to con-
tinue their operations, and company officials are
reacting calmly.
Dec 21, 1973 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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South Vietnam:
the Communists initiated more incidents on
December 20 than on any day since last March. Most
of the activity--chiefly shellings and terrorism--
took place in the delta. The actions could have
been aimed at showing Communist strength prior to
Secretary Kissinger's meetings with Le Duc Tho and
at marking the 13th anniversary of the founding of
the National Liberation Front.
Czechoslovakia-Afghanistan: Prague has extended
$20 mil ion of development aid to Kabul. This is
the first credit received by the Daoud government
from a Communist country.
*These items were prepared by CIA without consultation
with the Departments of State and Defense.
Dec 21, 1973
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