CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025900020001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 8, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 19, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/10/15: CIA-RDP79T00975AO25900020 0p -2 Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
C
19 December 1973
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
FEDAYEEN: Fatah - Black September group apparently
behind hijacking of Lufthansa aircraft. (Page 1)
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: Important Syrian elements
convinced productive negotiations with Israel are
not possible. (Page 2)
CARIBBEAN OIL: US imports of petroleum from Carib-
bean refineries may soon be reduced. (Page 4)
MBFR: Opening round largely a probing exercise.
(Page 5)
USSR: Soyuz launched yesterday is operating nor-
mally. (Page 7)
JAPAN: Tokyo applies new measures to stem loss of
foreign exchange. (Page 8)
DENMARK: Uncertain prospects for new minority gov-
ernment. (Page 9)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 10)
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FEDAYEEN: The hijacking of the Lufthansa air-
craft from Rome airport was apparently masterminded
by a dissident Fatah - Black September'official resi-
dent in Tripoli, Libya. The official, Ahmad Abd
al-Ghaffur, is a Fatah member but a critic of Fatah
chief Yasir Arafat. Abd al-Ghaffur reportedly has
some connection with Libyan intelligence, although
there is no evidence of Libyan complicity in this
operation.
The hijackers' demand for the release by the
Greek Government of two imprisoned Palestinians
who staged a terrorist attack at Athens airport
last August suggests that the hijackers may be
operating under the guidance of Abd al-Ghaffur, who
reportedly planned and supervised the Athens inci-
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whose head, George Habbash, has publicly opposed
participation by the Palestine Liberation Organiza-
A principal purpose of the current hijacking
apparently was to disrupt the peace conference in
Geneva. Abd al-Ghaffur in early 1973 reportedly
agreed to coordinate his operations with officials
of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine,
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ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: Syria's announcement
yesterday that it would not participate in the
Geneva conference which begins Friday reflected the
ingrained convictions of important elements in
Syria that productive negotiations with Israel are
still not possible.
By casting doubt that Arab objectives can be
realized early through negotiation, the announce-
ment heightened the chances of renewed hostilities
on the Golan front,
possibility exists that Egypt and Syria might ad-
vance their timetable for putting direct military
pressure on Israel to hasten its withdrawal from
Arab territory.
Egypt's reaction to the announcement, however,
held out the hope that the Syrians could be per-
suaded to come to Geneva later, if sufficient prog-
ress could be made to dispel their doubts. In an
official statement, Cairo expressed an understand-
ing of the "fear and suspicion that have forced"
Syria not to attend the conference. The statement,
nevertheless, emphasized that significant progress
during the initial meetings in Geneva could open
the way for Syria and other Arabs to contribute
positively to the peace effort. The message warned,
however, that procrastination and stalling by the
Israelis would force the Arabs to resume their
armed struggle.
According to press reports from Geneva, Israeli
officials reaffirmed Israel's agreement to attend
the conference, despite Syria's decision to stay
away.
Dec 19 , 1973 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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sions were heard north of Suez City. According to
Jerusalem Domestic Service, there were no incidents
Despite Egyptian nervousness, there were few
cease-fire violations noted yesterday. UN observers
reported antiaircraft firing near Fayid on the west
bank of the Great Bitter Lake. Several heavy explo-
of cease-fire violations on the Syrian front.
Dec 19, 1973
Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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. CARIBBEAN OIL: US imports of petroleum products
from the mayor Caribbean refineries, which amounted
to 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) during the
first six months of 1973, may soon be reduced as
much as 18 percent. Embargoes by Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait of crude oil shipments to all major refineries
in the area, a Libyan embargo of the Virgin Islands
refinery, and a 22-percent cutback in Libyan ship-
ments to refineries in the Bahamas, Netherlands
Antilles, and Trinidad--all effective in early No-
vember--stand to reduce the inflow of Arab crude
oil by over 400,000 b/d, or about 80 percent.
Output of the Caribbean refineries is only be-
ginning to reflect the Arab cutbacks. The refinery
in the Bahamas was operating at full capacity as of
November 26. Moreover, crude oil processed at
Trinidad refineries as of December 11 had dropped
by only 65,000 b/d, compared with the expected 210,000
drop in Arab supplies. While the refineries probably
are drawing down stocks, the maintenance of output
may also indicate substantial diversion of Venezuelan,
Ecuadorian, and possibly other crude oil by the oil
companies.
The Caribbean refineries depend on imports for
all their crude, except for those in Trinidad which
obtain about 20 percent domestically. Normally,
about 40 percent of the crude supply comes from
Venezuela and approximately 25 percent from Libya,
Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. In 1972, the refineries,
with a combined capacity of about 2 million b/d,
processed about 1.8 million b/d of crude and exported
1.5 million b/d of refined products outside the
Caribbean area. The US received about 80 percent of
the exports, including almost all exports of ref
Pries in the Virgin Islands and the Bahamas.
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MBFR: The opening round of negotiations on
force reductions in Europe was largely a probing
exercise, but it isolated themes the Soviets will
stress in the future and indicated areas of potential
conflict and compromise.
Moscow and its allies placed particular emphasis
on including both foreign and national forces in all
stages of reductions, in contrast to NATO's concept
of two distinct phases. Initially, the Soviets seemed
concerned that if US and Soviet forces were reduced
first, the West German Army would be disproportionately
strong. Later, West European talk about some form of
defense cooperation raised the specter of West Ger-
man forces in a unified West European defense force.
The Soviets spent considerable effort probing West-
ern intentions on this issue. In their private
statements, however, the Soviets suggested that they
might be amenable to a compromise in which US and
Soviet forces were reduced first, provided there was
a firm commitment by the West to reduce national
forces in a second phase.
As expected, the Soviets argued vigorously
against the Western concept of asymmetric reductions
which would result in relatively greater Warsaw Pact
reductions to reach a "common ceiling" with NATO.
The Soviets used a variety of arguments against
asymmetry, but emphasized the idea that Western in-
feriority in some areas is compensated by superiority
in others, so that an overall balance exists. Thus,
while the NATO countries stressed Warsaw Pact supe-
riority in ground forces and armor, the latter strove
to include air forces and nuclear weapons in a total
reduction package. The Soviets even hinted that they
might accept a common ceiling in which air and nu-
clear forces are included, but this would not be
asymmetry as understood by NATO.
(continued)
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The Soviets and their allies took a generally
serious approach at the talks and, in fact, pressed
to negotiate a reduction agreement as quickly as
possible--on their terms. In formal plenary ses-
sions, the Soviets displayed little inclination to
compromise, and closed the round on a note of rigid-
ity, but they demonstrated a certain amount of flex-
ibility during informal bilateral meetings. The
Soviets want some concrete results to show by 1975,
as contained in their proposal and affirmed publicly
by General Secretary Brezhnev.
The Western allies maintained a united front
during the round, but growing European concern over
the possible effects of MBFR on future European de-
fense cooperation may make it more difficult to main-
tain unity. The EC delegates in Vienna have now
drawn up a list of what a force reduction agreement
must avoid in order not to interfere with defense
cooperation. The West German representative in
Vienna fears that the defense cooperation issue could
cause his government to move closer to the strongly
negative British attitude toward the MBFR negoti-
ations. The US delegation has expressed concern
that this issue could seriousl slow the negotiations
when they resume next month.
Dec 19, 1973
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USSR: Soyuz 13, the spacecraft launched
yesterday from Tyuratam with two cosmonauts abroad,
appears to be operating normally.
According to TASS, the purposes of the flight
are to perform scientific observations and to con-
tinue testing the spacecraft. Although the Soviets
currently have an unmanned Soyuz in orbit, its
orbit is significantly different from that of
Soyuz 13, indicating that no rendezvous and docking
operations are planned.
The Soviets have conducted one other manned
space flight this year. Soyuz 12, launched from
Tyuratam on September 27, carried two cosmonauts
and remained in orbit two days.
Since the fatal Soyuz 11 accident in June 1971,
the Soviets have undertaken two manned and three
unmanned Soyuz missions.
of the problems encountered in their manned space
program, the Soviets apparently are carefully
preparing for the joint Apollo-Soyuz mission
scheduled for 1975. One objective of the current
flight may be to test new components added the
spacecraft for this joint mission.
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JAPAN: Tokyo has approved additional measures
to slow t e loss of official holdings of foreign
exchange following the record $1.7-billion balance-
of-payments deficit for November. In the most
significant change, Japanese commercial banks no
longer have to hold dollars in a specified propor-
tion to yen held in foreign-owned accounts. This
will enable the banks to sell some $700 million on
the Tokyo foreign exchange market. The banks
probably will be willing to accept greater accumula-
tions of yen holdings by foreigners because they
will no longer be required to maintain essentially
idle dollar holdings.
The Bank of Japan also withdrew $130 million
from a fund in commercial banks used to finance
imports. The government will no longer provide
loans to finance the purchase of overseas real
estate, and it has placed limits on the amount of
money Japanese travelers can take out of the country.
possibility.
Although these measures are likely to alleviate
some of the strain on official foreign exchange
holdings, they do not directly affect long-term
capital outflows, the basic cause of the balance-
of-payments deficit. These outflows total $8.8
billion so far this year and the central bank
governor hinted that restrictions on them are a
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Central Intelligence Bulletin 8
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DENMARK: The minority government formed
earlier this week by Moderate Liberal leader Poul
Hartling has very uncertain prospects in view of
Denmark's fragmented parliament. The only support
Hartling can rely on, in addition to his own
party's 22 parliamentary votes, are the 14 votes
of the Center Democrats and the seven votes of the
Christian People's Party--a total of 43 in the 179-
seat parliament.
Despite the minority status of the new govern-
ment, it will initially enjoy a relatively broad
base of parliamentary support. On many issues, Hart-
ling expects to have the "cooperation" of Social
Democrats, the Radical Liberals, and the Conserva-
tives, giving the government a total of 125 parlia-
mentary votes. The Moderate Liberals refer to the
government's support in parliament as a "negative
majority," i.e.,the opposition does not have a
majority against it.
Hartling probably will be able to limp along
until a deeply divisive issue confronts the govern-
ment. For the short term, the new government
probably will be content to attempt only moderate
domestic reforms to slow inflation and improve the
tax-rate structure in favor of middle-class workers.
Little innovation is likely in foreign policy,
particularly with regard to relations with NATO
and the EC.
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Guyana: Prime Minister Burnham will open dis-
cussions-th the Reynolds Company soon to determine
the status of its bauxite operations. He has not
proposed outright nationalization but wants some
degree of control, as well as assurances on future
oduction and capital investment.
Yugoslavia - South Asia: According to Bombay
radio, President Tito w7-1--attend India's Republic
Day celebration on Januar 26, and then will visit
Bangladesh and Nepal.
El Salvador - Honduras: Negotiators have failed
to draft peace treaty by December 15, the deadline
mutually agreed upon, and suspicion of each other's
intentions has caused both countries to step up
military preparedness. Other Central American
leaders have been unable to arrange a meeting be-
tween the two presidents, but meetings between senior
officials of El Salvador and Honduras have eased
tensions somewhat.
*These items were prepared by CIA without consultation
with the Departments of State and Defense.
Dec 19 , 1973 Central Intelligence Bulletin 10
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