CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025700050001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 27, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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RETURN TO ARCHIVES c 27 November 1973
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: Tensions eased on battlefronts
as Arabs turn attention to summit conference. (Page 1)
JAPAN - ARAB STATES: Arab oil producers exempt
Japan from scheduled cutbacks next month. (Page 5)
GREECE: General Ioannidis consolidates control.
(Page 6)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Saigon makes personnel changes in
government and military hierarchy. (Page 13)
BURMA: Army ends offensive against insurgents in
north to meet threat elsewhere. (Page 14)
UK: No progress in solving dispute between govern-
ment and coal miners. (Page 15)
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C ARAB`'STATES'- ISRAEL: Tensions appeared to
have eased somewhat on the battlefronts yesterday
as the Arabs turned their attention to the summit
conference in Algiers.
The Egyptians and Israelis met at Kilometer 101
again yesterday to discuss disengagement, and again
reached no agreement. A UN spokesman described the
session as "good," however, and another is scheduled
for tomorrow. Their failure to meet today is prob-
ably caused less by disagreement than by the absence
of President Sadat and his chief foreign policy ad-
visers who are at the Arab summit conference.
Cairo and Tel Aviv both reported minor cease-
fire violations yesterday. These consisted primarily
of small arms fire along the Suez Canal, although
Cairo radio referred briefly to "clashes in which
heavy artillery and rockets were used."
A Red Cross official and diplomatic contacts
of the US Interests Section in Cairo have reported
that the Egyptian Third Army is being resupplied by
sea. There is no other information to corroborate
these reports. In Israel, Trade and Industry Minis-
ter Haim Bar-Lev indicated last night that Egypt has
lifted its blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
According to press reports, Bar-Lev, when questioned
on the blockade at a public meeting, replied that
the land, sea, and air cease-fire was being fully
observed.
Last night's opening session of the Arab sum-
mit in Algiers featured speeches by Arab League Sec-
retary General Riad, who outlined general Arab ob-
jectives, and by Algeria's President Boumediene, who 3
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C called for continuing the battle against Israel until
the occupied territories are evacuated and the rights
of the Palestinians secured. Preliminary indications
are that the final communique will be more moderate
than Boumediene's opening speech or the proposals
for a tougher oil embargo and renewed hostilities
debated by the foreign ministers in their preparatory
meetings.
According to press
reports, Egypt an Syria nave strongly affirmed their
commitment to try for a negotiated settlement, and
they are being permitted to set the tone of the con-
ference. Those favoring a more militant position
reportedly have decided to sit back and wait for the
collapse of diplomatic efforts before taking further
action.
The most serious problem facing the conferees
is the Jordanian-fedayeen.dispute over the represen-
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.tation of Palestinian interests.
ing to Amman radio, the toreign ministers re told
that Jordan would not take part in any future peace
talks if such a resolution were adopted. This strong
Jordanian opposition undoubtedly was a factor in the
wording of the ministers' final resolution, which
merely recognized the PLO's status as "representative
of the Palestinians."
Another factor contributing to the softened
resolution may have been the guarded reception PLO
leader Yasir Arafat received during his visit to the
Soviet Union last week. In a TASS statement issued
yesterday, Moscow made its first formal note of the ]
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C PLO visit. The statement contained only generalized
assurances of Soviet support for the Palestinian
cause, and stressed the "unofficial" nature of the
visit. This treatment is in line with earlier indi-
cations that Moscow is taking a cautious approach to
the complex Palestinian issue until the Palestinians
themselves and the Arab governments come up with a
unified policy.
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Prime Minister Meir announced yesterday that
Israel would be willing to give up two fortified
positions on Mount Hermon, in Syrian territory, if
Damascus would agree to a prisoner exchange. The
issue of a POW exchange with Syria is a particularly
delicate one in Israel; the government will be under
fire from its domestic opponents until the prisoners
are returned.
In the expectation that Mrs. Meir will ask
Labor Party leaders for a vote of confidence tomor-
row, the Israeli press is heightening its call for
the government to define clearly its policies. The
newspaper'Maariv, for example, has asked "who speaks
for the government; the defense minister who says
that we are at the beginning of a war, or the for-
eign minister, who sees in the Geneva Conference a
good chance for a peace agreement?" In response to
such public pressures and as a result of calls for
her replacement from critics within the party, Mrs.
Meir has called for a policy debate in the party's
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JAPAN - ARAB STATES: In response to Tokyo's
pro-Arab statement on 2 November, the Arabs have
exempted Japan from the scheduled 5-percent cutback
in oil shipments next month. Saudi Arabia's For-
eign Minister told US officials that Japan will re-
ceive the same treatment as most of the European
Community states, but has not gained the status of
a "friendly nation." Reports on the Arab oil min-
isters' meeting in Vienna on 24 November by a re-
spected economic journal published in Beirut suggest
that Japan will have to take,a much stronger pro-
Arab stand by the end of December or face a greater
than 5-percent cut in oil supplies in January.
If, in fact, the Arabs are using such a carrot
and stick approach toward Japan, their chances for
success are relatively good. To cope with supply
cutbacks, the government already has ordered a 10-
percent reduction in oil and electric power con-
sumption in all major industries by the end of
December and plans a further 5-percent cut during
January-March. The industries that will be hit
hardest--including steel, transport equipment, and
chemicals--account for about two thirds of total
industrial output, and a sizable drop in production
is likely to occur during the first quarter of 1974.
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CGREECE: Athens appeared to be returning to normal
yesterrday, less than 24 hours after the early dawn coup
of 25 November. Tanks and troopswere being withdrawn,
the curfew was lifted, and all schools except those of
higher learning were open. Indications are that the
new regime is firmly in place and enjoys the support
of the armed forces. Prime Minister Androutsopoulos
is scheduled to present the new government's policy
statement on Wednesday.
Brigadier General Dimitrios Ioannidis, who master-
minded Sunday's military coup, continues to consolidate
his control from behind the scenes. Several more gen-
erals and security officials were forced out yesterday,
presumably because they opposed the ouster of President
Papadopoulos or were otherwise suspected of being dis-
loyal to the new military-backed government. Earlier,
three of the four military chiefs in the high command
were replaced.
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The new cabinet, which was apparently hand-picked
by Ioannidis, is unimpressive. It includes several
members of earlier governments under Papadopoulos,
two former politicians, and some retired generals.
The relatively unknown General Gizikis, who is now
President, may be holding that post temporarily until
some figure of national prominence agrees to take the
position, possibly Ioannidis himself. In general, the
political orientation of the government is rightist.
Ioannidis has long been regarded as one of the
more likely potential challengers to Papadopoulos.
Ihennxdpsand hto officers
the ex-president 3
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CPapadopoulos would displace them, and expose Greece
to leftist-inspired political chaos, which is how they
have viewed last week's worker-student demonstrations.
Ioannidis and his supporters seized upon the demon-
strations as confirmation of their belief that Greece
was not ready for elections and as justification for
their move to oust Papadopoulos. Other factors lead-
ing them to move probably included the waning personal
prestige of Papadopoulos, general discontent over
soaring prices, and the dissatisfaction of various
military leaders--including Ioannides, who Papadopoulos
had repeatedly tried to transfer out of Athens--with
their personal prospects.
The new government has declared the present con-
stitution unworkable, allegedly because it gives the
president so much power that civilian politicians
were unwilling to cooperate; it has promised to begin
the lengthy process of drafting a new constitution.
In a further gesture of conciliation, the government
released the three politicians who had been placed
under house arrest last week because of their opposi-
tion to the Papadopoulos government. Ioannidis has
warned the press, however, that it must practice
"self-censorship" and that the present government
will not tolerate criticism, either in news columns
or in cartoons.
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Greece received its first setback on the inter-
national front, following the suppression of the
student-led uprising and the latest coup, when an
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Cofficial of the Common Market Executive Commission
officially informed the Greek Government on Monday
that its associate membership could only be devel-
oped further when democratic institutions were re-
established.
Athens press coverage has been restrained; the
papers were cautious both in censuring Papadopoulos
and in praising the new military government. The US
consul in Thessaloniki reports a publicureaction of
relief and cautious approval. The Cyprus press,
ever, views.the coup as "inopportune and unpleasant"
and there were demonstrations in Nicosia. The Soviet
press has taken a negative view of the coup.
The new government faces the same problems as
the old one--questions of order, political. freedom
and economic stability and growth,
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SOUTH VIETNAM: In the past month Saigon has
underta en the most extensive shakeup at the in-
termediate level of the government and military
hierarchy in recent years. One military region
commander, several regional staff officers, five
new division commanders, and six new province
chiefs have been appointed, according to the US
Embassy. The most recent shifts involve the prov-
ince chiefs for Sa Dec, Phong Dinh, Hau Nghia, and
Tay Ninh, and a new deputy commander and chief of
staff in Military Region 4. At least two more
changes in province chiefs--in Binh Duong and Binh
Long--are being considered.
President Thieu clearly is disappointed with
the performance of officials in several areas, par-
ticularly by their lack of aggressiveness. Most of
the changes, for example, have taken place in the
key region north of Saigon where the government has
been unable to recapture. significant territory or
reduce the Communist threat substantially. Other
changes, such as those in the delta and in the high-
lands, have been the result of the Communists' mili-
tary success in eroding the government's holdings
in these areas.
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BURMA: The Burmese Army has ended its offen-
sive against communist insurgents in the northern
Shan State in order to concentrate on the serious
situation in the Kengtung area.
The army has withdrawn from positions close to
the Chinese border in northern Shan State that were
seized in the first half of November, claiming that
it had never intended to hold these gains. Accord-
ing to the Burmese, the foray into the border area
was intended to serve notice on the insurgents and
their Chinese mentors that Rangoon has not ceded
this territory even though the Communists have con-
trolled it for several years. Although army morale
was buoyed by the operation, the military leadership
believes the relative weakness of Communist opposi-
tion is an indication that the bulk of Communist
forces had been moved south to the Kengtung region.
All available army troops are being sent to
check Communist advances around Kengtung. Although
the Burmese remain optimistic about their chances
at Kengtung, units of the Communist force of some
5,000 are penetrating as close as 15 miles to this
regional administrative center. It is not clear
that the Communist objective is to take Kengtung,
but the insurgents do hope to cut its already tenu-
ous road link to the remainder of Burma. Heavy
rains and temporary shortages of ammunition have
complicated Burmese efforts but army operations
are continuing.
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UK: The deadlocked dispute between the govern-
ment and the coal miners threatens to add to Brit-
ain's already growing energy problems.
Despite the government's Stage III guidelines
that limit wage increases to an average of 7 per-
cent annually, the miners' executive committee
last week unanimously rejected the latest National
Coal Board wage package which would have increased
wages and fringe benefits by 16 percent. The US
Embassy was informed that the executive committee
did not vote on submitting the government's latest
offer to the rank and file, and the next meeting
of the committee is scheduled to be held on 13 De-
cember. The executive committee, which is narrowly
dominated by militant leftists, wants to postpone
the vote to allow tensions and militancy among the
miners to increase. In any event, the process of
balloting the miners would take three weeks.
In a television address last week Prime Minis-
ter Heath said the miners, by their decision, were
confronting not only the government but the elected
representatives of the people in Parliament. He
pointed out that the situation today is quite dif-
ferent from the dispute in early 1972 because there
are now statutory wage and price controls. These
counterinflation measures, which Heath wants to pre-
serve and the miners want to abolish, are at the
heart of the current confrontation. Heath cannot
afford to give in to the miners because this would
encourage other unions to make similar demands which
would unravel his anti-inflationary program. His
economic policies were tested in Parliament early
last week when the opposition Labor Party brought
a motion of censure against the government that
failed by 18 votes.
Meanwhile, British energy problems are getting
worse. Because of the miners' refusal to work over-
time and the consequent lack of maintenance and
safety work in the mines, coal production has de-
clined by as much as 40 percent. Press reports in-
dicate that oil stocks have fallen to a 64-day
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supply; at the beginning of the crisis the stocks
were estimated to be enough for 79 days. In addi-
tion, electric power workers probably will continue
their overtime ban until the miners settle their
dispute.
All of these difficulties have given rise to
rumors that Heath will call a snap election in a
showdown with the miners. The poor showing by both
the ruling Tories and the opposition Labor Party in
recent by-elections and in public opinion polls,
however, suggests that neither party would be anx-
ious for an election to be called now.
The only encouraging note in the two-week-long
dispute is that the moderate head of the miners'
union is trying to arrange a meeting between the
executive commit rime Minister Heath some-
time this week.
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