CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025600080001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 16, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Top Secret
_C2Or
RETURN TO ARCHIVES It RECORDS CENTER 16 November 1973
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: Implementation of cease-fire
agreement begins. (Page 1)
WEST GERMANY: Trade surplus continues to grow.
(Page 8)
UGANDA-USSR: Soviets resume military aid. (Page 10)
BURMA: Rangoon continues to push anti-insurgency
campaign, despite some setbacks. (Page 11)
ARGENTINA: Peron favors right in Justicialist
Party reorganization. (Page 12)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 14)
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C ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: The implementation of
the cease-fire agreement began yesterday, with no
significant problems developing.
The first stage of the prisoner-of-war exchange
took place with the transfer of 26 Israeli wounded
prisoners and over 400 Egyptians. According to a
press account, Egypt was unable yesterday to organize
the repatriation of a larger number of Israeli pris-
oners. No adverse Israeli reaction to Cairo's delay
was reported.
Contingents of the United Nations Emergency
Force (UNEF) took control of the Israeli checkpoints
at Kilometers 101 and 119. A UNEF press spokesman
claimed that there are no other Israeli checkpoints
on the Cairo-Suez road. Trucks carrying relief sup-
plies to Suez city passed through the checkpoint at
Kilometer 101 yesterday. An International Red Cross
spokesman has also announced that the evacuation of
more than 1,000 sick and wounded Egyptian civilians
from Suez city will begin today.
According to press reports, Israeli Defense
Minister Dayan said yesterday that Tel Aviv had made
"far reaching" proposals to Damascus including an
exchange of prisoners of war and offered to allow
about 15,000 displaced civilians from newly captured
areas on the Golan Heights to return to their homes.
Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Eban and Secretary-
General Waldheim at the UN and a special UN envoy in
Damascus are seeking ways to resolve the Israeli-
Syrian prisoner issue.
Minor cease-fire violations were reported on
both fronts yesterday. A brief exchange of tank and
artillery fire took place on the northern sector of
the Syrian front.
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Egyptians have generally been satisfied with
the Egyptian-Israeli decision of Wednesday to proceed
with the implementation of four elements of the six-
point agreement of 11 November, according to the US
Interests Section. The new, but restrained optimism
ends a period of gloom and frustration over what
Egyptians considered Israeli obstructionism and a
breakdown of negotiations. The Egyptian Government
is underscoring the need for intense pressure on Tel
Aviv, and Cairo implies that recent progress in
getting Israel to be more forthcoming has been a
result of Egyptian-US interaction.
The Interests Section believes that there is
no real challenge to Sadat's leadership and reports
that his popularity appears to be high. Some un-
happiness exists among university students, and there
is muttering by younger officers, who complain that
the cease-fire was entered into for political, rather
than military reasons. Nevertheless, Egypt appears
ready to give Sadat's political and diplomatic ef-
forts a chance to succeed.
Radio Tripoli yesterday carried what was de-
scribed as a cable sent by President Qadhafi to
President Sadat dealing with the Arab-Israeli war
and its aftermath. Qadhafi's message bitterly con-
demned Sadat's acceptance of the cease-fire; the
war, Qadhafi said, should have been continued "even
if it developed into hand-to-hand fighting." The
Libyan leader said he was furious at the Egyptian-
Israeli talks at Kilometer 101: "I cannot sleep at
what is happening at Kilometer 101, or perhaps I am
asleep and it is a terrible and peculiar nightmare."
(continued)
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t Yesterday's communique following the Tito-Brezhnev
talks in Kiev broke no new ground on the Middle East.
Both leaders recognized the importance of obtaining a
Middle East settlement and reaffirmed their readiness
to make efforts in that direction. The communique ac-
cused Israel of "crude flouting" of the UN cease-fire
resolutions and noted the "dangerous consequences" of
Israel's "adventurous actions." Meanwhile, in Moscow,
Premier Kosygin told a Guinean delegation that the
Soviets will continue to give the "utmost assistance"
to implement UN resolutions on the Middle East.
Pravda also emphasized Moscow's continuing role in
achieving a Middle East settlement. The Soviet weekly
New Times touched on the sensitive subject of Arab
financial holdings in the West by noting that substan-
tial sums are held in US and West European banks. It
said "if the Arabs withdrew only half of their invest-
ments, it would lead to a serious upheaval of the
finances of many West European countries." The US
was not explicitly mentioned in this regard. Although
Moscow has endorsed the use of Arab oil, it has not
made such explicit reference to the significance of
Arab financial reserves.
Further progress has been made at the UN in
assembling the peacekeeping force. The UN Emergency
Force now has approximately 2,200 troops in the Mid-
dle East and enough pledges to bring it close to the
7,000-man goal. Negotiations have also reached tent
tive agreement on a special assessment scale for the
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Cfinancing of the emergency force. UNEF', however, is
still without adequate supplies or logistic support
for its rapidly growing forces.
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WEST GERMANY: Bonn registered a $1.6-billion
trade surplus in September, raising the cumulative
surplus for the first nine months of 1973 to $8.7
billion. This is more than double the level for the
comparable period of 1972. Trade declined in August
as a result of seasonal factors, but rebounded in
September when exports were up 63 percent and im-
ports up 40 percent, compared with September 1972.
Exports probably will continue at high levels in
the remaining months of the year, contributing to
an annual trade surplus that is likely to reach a
record level of at least $12 billion.
A surplus of $250 million in trade with the
US accounted for one sixth of West Germany's total
surplus in September. The nine-month surplus with
the US reached nearly $1 billion and is likely to
approach $1.5 billion for the entire year. Although
US sales of agricultural commodities have risen
dramatically this year, these gains have been more
than offset by increased US imports of intermediate
goods and manufactures, particularly transport
equipment.
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UGANDA-USSR: Moscow has resumed military de-
liveries to Uganda after a hiatus of some five years.
A Soviet ship unloaded ten T-34 medium tanks,
six armored personnel carriers, and ammunition at
Mombasa between 3-8 November for transshipment to
Kampala This de-
livery may be part of the -m ion arms accord
concluded in 1965. About $7 million worth of equip-
ment, including seven MIG-15/17 jet fighters and
ground forces equipment,,was delivered prior to 1969.
By January 1971, however, the program had deteriorated
to the point where the Soviet military technicians
stationed in Uganda were withdrawn.
Relations between Moscow and Kampala began to
improve by the fall of 1972, when President Amin
suggested the resumption of the Soviet military aid
program. The recent shipment probably was arranged
during the visit to Kampala last A ril of a high-
level Soviet military delegation.
IIn addi-
tion, the Soviets announced e appointment of a
military attache to Uganda in October.
Moscow has moved cautiously in improving rela-
tions with the Amin government. The Soviets may
feel uncertain about the staying power of the capri-
cious and unpredictable Amin, who at times has ir-
ritated Moscow with statements critical of Soviet
foreign policy. Nevertheless, the USSR is pleased
with Uganda's deteriorating relations with London,
Washington, and Tel Aviv, and probably hopes that
a limited military aid program will enhance Soviet
influence. Moscow, however, probably would be re-
luctant to provide Uganda with enough equipment to
upset the military balance with nei hborin coun-
tries--Zaire, Kenya, and Tanzania.
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Myitkyina
CHINA
SI-AN TA
Area. o
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BURMA
.-'Chiang Rai
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BURMA: Despite recent military setbacks, Ran-
goon is -continuing to push its seven-week-old campaign
against Communist insurgents in northeast Burma.
Stung by the loss on 1 November of the important
military outpost of Mong Yang, the last major govern-
ment position between the administrative center of
Kengtung and Communist-held territory along the Chi-
nese border, the Burmese Army has moved quickly to
take diversionary action further north. The army,
hoping to take advantage of the reduced Communist
troop presence in the north, has captured a town
only five miles from the border and is moving against
other long-time Burmese Communist depots and strong-
points along this border. The insurgents, supplied
and directed in part by the Chinese, have up to now
enjoyed a relatively undisturbed sanctuary in this
area.
Supply problems, plus the heavy casualties sus-
tained by Burmese forces since the kickoff of the
offensive, raise questions about Rangoon's ability
to sustain operations on two fronts. 777
Troop strength aroun eng ung as een
sharply and the deputy defense minister has per-
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ARGENTINA: President Peron has favored the
right in reorganizing his Justicialist Party.
Peron announced last week that the Peronist
movement was formalizing its structure and he out-
lined the new organizational hierarchy, naming top
political advisers. Missing from the list was a
prominent Peronist youth leader, who apparently
still holds the executive post of liaison officer
between the government and various political par-
ties. Peron, under pressure from rightist elements
within the labor movement, reportedly purged him
from the party hierarchy.
This maneuver may intensify the ongoing power
struggle between leftist and conservative leaders
in the party. Many young Peronists have protested
publicly, and Secretary to the Presidency Solano
Lima reportedly is looking for a way for Peron to
balance this move to head off more serious dissen-
u
So far Peron, in his own enigmatic fashion,
has refused open support for any specific group
within the movement. Peron's latest move, however,
is in line with his long-range strategy to separate
out extreme leftists, while retaining the support
of the majority of the youth.
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FOR THE RECORD*
Japan: A balance-of-payments deficit of almost
$1 billion was registered in October as the trade
surplus continued to shrink. Overall imports were
77 percent higher than a year ago and imports from
the US grew even faster. As a result, the monthly
Japanese trade surplus with the US fell to $60 million,
compared to $360 million in October 1972, and to only
$120 million on a global basis. Long-term capital
outflows declined in October, but still remained above
$500 million. Japan's overall balance-of-payments
deficit so far this year amounts to about $7 billion.
*These items were prepared by CIA without consulta-
tion with the Departments of State and Defense.
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