CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025200130001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 26, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 17, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
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Top Secret
C 2'04
17 September .1973
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
CHILE: Junta finds additional justification for
ousting Allende government. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Enemy forces have cut Route 1 and are
expanding their campaign against key provincial
capitals. (Page 3)
SWEDEN: Palme's coalition has apparently retained
a bare majority in Sunday's elections. (Page 4)
CSCE: The most crucial and difficult stage of the
conference begins tomorrow. (Page 5)
NETHERLANDS: Revaluation of the guilder. (Page 8)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 9)
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CHILE: The junta believes that it is finding
additional justification for having ousted the
Allende government on 11 September and for not re-
turning the country to the politicians for some time.
the discovery o guerr:L a camps and arms caches in
Santiago and southern provinces as further proof
that Chilean, Cuban, and other Latin American revo-
lutionaries were preparing to "eliminate the armed
forces," probably in retaliation for recent military
raids on leftist strongholds such as barricaded
factories.
Armed attacks on military installations in
Valparaiso and Santiago and the activities of left-
ists using army and police uniforms and vehicles
will aid the junta's plans to propagandize its case
before Chile and the world.
Junta President General Pinochet's claim that
fewer than 100 Chileans have died in the violence
is unlikely to be credited;
e armed orces have been surprised at e
fierce resistance in the crowded Santiago slums and
have postponed air and artillery attacks for fear
of killing women and chil
thousands holed up there.
Claims of the clandestine leftist radio sta-
tions that many Marxist leaders, including ailing
Nobel poet Pablo Neruda, were executed are exagger-
ated. The junta is backing up its increasingly hard
17 Sep 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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anti-Marxist line, however, with extensive arrests,
summary execution of armed resisters, and plans
for execution, imprisonment, or exile of key Al-
lende supporters.
The military government is annoyed with the
stance of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC),
despite the party's mild statement of support for
the junta. The PDC has taken sharp exception to the
dissolution of Congress, where it had the largest
representation, and one of its leftist leaders un-
successfully petitioned for protection of the nor-
mal legal rights of detained former officials. The
Brazilian Government reportedly is satisfied that
the junta is taking the advice of conservative non-
partisan civilians. This strengthens reports that
the new constitution, which one ranking naval officer
says the junta wants to present as soon as possible,
would provide for a congress that represents interest
groups as well as political parties,
The junta's brisk moves in administrative and
economic matters should soon help to bring about the
apmh1annR of normality that the armed. forces want.
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Many of the most deeply resented agricultural
and distribution policies of the Allende adminis-
tration are being quickly reversed, If the substi-
tutions and outside aid already requested are ef-
fective in easing urgent shortages and other imme-
diate economic dislocations, the junta will be ac-
cepted if not acclaimed by the large Chilean middle
class that had been taking the brunt of the squeeze.
This could include the labor elites, such as the
copper workers, but the lowest paid workers who
under Allende fared better than ever in their his-
tory may respond to leftist, urgings to oppose the
new government.
17 Sep 73
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CAMBODIA: Communist military activity shifted
away from Kompong Cham this weekend. Southeast of
Phnom Penh enemy forces have once again cut Route 1,
and government efforts to reopen the road have been
rebuffed.
The Communist command also appears bent on ex-
panding its campaign against key provincial capitals.
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Kompong Speu has alread come under sporadic
rocket and mortar fire,
The Communists prob-
ably have no illusions of occupying either city at
present. The timing of the attacks does suggest,
however, that they want to distract government forces
from reopening Routes 4 and 5 and, more important,
to divert crucial government reserves from the de-
fense of Kompong Cham.
In the Kompong Cham area, neither side made
headway over the weekend. Government forces have
not been able to drive insurgents from the university
grounds immediately west of the city, but they have
withstood several enemy attempts to breach their de-
fense perimeter.
17 Sep 73
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,SWEDEN: Olof Palme apparently will remain
Sweden's Prime Minister for another three years,
even though voters moved to the right in yesterday's
elections.
Palme's Social Democrats lost seven seats in
parliament, dropping to 156, according to a tally
of all but the absentee ballots. The Communists,
however, on whom Palme's minority government has re-
lied for its majority in crucial votes, picked up
three seats for a total of 20, thus retaining a
176-174 majority for the bloc. Palme now has a
choice of continuing his present arrangement or,
less likely, of attempting a coalition with one of
the nonsocialist parties.
Foreign policy issues did not figure impor-
tantly in the.campaign. The Social Democrats did
attempt to hold supporters in the center by appear-
ing more balanced; spokesmen implied they sought
better relations with the US, and they criticized
the repression of dissident intellectuals in the
USSR. This moderation may have cost Palme some
votes on the left.
The election in Norway the previous weekend
probably had a more important impact. In Norway,
large numbers of Labor Party supporters stayed
home and thereby handed their party a big setback.
This fact received prominent play in the Swedish
press; thus warned, the Social Democrats and the
trade union organization got out over 90 percent
of the vote.
One of Palme's major objectives will be to re-
verse the six-year-old trend away from his party.
Whether he attempts to do this by recapturing dis-
affected supporters in the center, or on the left,
will be a major determinant of how Sweden behaves
on international issues for the foreseeable future.
17 Sep 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CSCE: The most crucial and difficult stage of
the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe
gets under way in Geneva tomorrow. It will prepare
the declarations and agreements that will be formally
sanctioned at the final stage of the conference, to
be held at the ministerial or summit level.
During several months of preparations in Hel-
sinki, beginning late last November, a number of
"mandates," -or terms of reference, were agreed upon.
They will serve as the basis of work for the remain-
der of the conference. The preparations, as well
as the speeches at the ceremonial opening of the
conference in early July, showed that ideological
differences between East and West will dominate the
stage that is about to begin.
The Soviets will be pressing for an unequivocal
statement of the principle of inviolability of fron-
tiers. This, in their view, would ratify the status
quo in Europe and would sanction in a multilateral
forum the division of Germany. The West, while
realizing that the participants will have to agree
to the principle in some form, will be trying to
modify the wording to allow for peaceful changes
in the borders of states. The most important goal
for the Western countries in the conference, how-
ever, will be the approval of specific agreements
to encourage the freer movement of people and ideas
between East and West.
Moscow has been surprised by the firmness of
the West on this issue, and Soviet efforts to cope
with it have been less than consistent. Brezhnev,
in what has been termed a "victory-through-contacts"
approach, appeared to welcome increased contacts in
a speech at Alma Ata on 15 August, but generally
the Soviets are still defensive and suspicious about
such a possibility. Moscow's assumption that its
anti-dissident campaign could be concluded without
damaging the prospects for CSCE could have been a
miscalculation. The strong Western reaction may
have influenced Moscow to ease up on the dissidents
and to halt the jamming of most Western broadcasts.
(continued)
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The Soviets hope that this stage of the con-
ference will not be excessively detailed and will
be over by the end of the year, but their desires
are unlikely to be satisfied on either count. The
West European allies, who have been hard at work
preparing their positions, want a detailed and
lengthy consideration of the issues and will no doubt
argue forcefully for their points of view. The So-
viets, however, will probably be unwilling to enter
into real bargaining at the Vienna force reduction
talks until the security conference has ended.
17 Sep 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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NETHERLANDS: Continued strong upward pressure
on the guilder, combined with domestic considera-
tions, led The Hague to announce a 5-percent reval-
uation Saturday. The Netherlands posted a balance-
of-payments surplus of some $2 billion from 31 August
1972 to 31 August 1973. The guilder recently has
traded close to the upper limit of the EC joint float
band.
The government's main interest in revaluing was
to try to bridle the strong domestic inflation that
has been eroding real income and making labor increas-
ingly restive. In recent months, consumer prices
have been rising at an annual rate of about 8 per-
cent. The revaluation and other anti-inflationary
measures to be announced Tuesday in the Queen's
speech to the new Parliament are aimed toward
strengthening the government's hand in the coming
critical talks with unions and employers on wage in-
creases for 1974.
Last year labor achieved gains that have pushed
up hourly wage rates in manufacturing by more than
10 percent. This year, however, the labor market
is not as tight, and the adoption of positive meas-
ures, such as the revaluation, may help curb labor's
clamor for pay hikes that be ond compensation for
the higher cost of living.
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FOR THE RECORD*
Bulgaria-USSR: Soviet party chief Leonid Brezh-
nev will visit Sofia later this month, according to
a TASS announcement. Brezhnev and Bulgarian party
boss Todor Zhivkov last talked in late Jul at the
conference of party leaders in the Crimea.
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*These items were prepared by CIA without consultation
with the Departments of State and Defense.
17 Sep 73
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