CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A025000020001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 15, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 2, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Top Secret
2 August 1973
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2 August 1973
CONTENTS
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CHILE: Christian emocrats re y to break o
officially talks w.th the gove nment. (Page 3)
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ROMANIA-UN-NONALIGNMENT V Bucharest looks for ways
to help justify attenda at nonaligned summit.
(Page 5)
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Labor 1 ders from Eastern
INTERNATIONAL LAB
and Western Euro e tentatively gree to hold talks.
(Page 7)
JAPAN: Shipbuilding industry boo 'ng, despite ap-
preciation ation o yen. (Page 8)
EAST GERMA Ulbricht's death will of have major
impact one- overnment. (Page 8)
FOR TEE RECORD : (Page 9)
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CHILE: The Christian Democrats say they are
re!d'y to break off officially their talks with the
government and are planning subsequent maneuvers
against the regime.
The "dialogue" went into limbo following two
unproductive meetings between party and government
leaders on 30 July. The Christian Democrats reiter-
ated previously stated demands that include the re-
incorporation of the military into the government,
and President Allende tried, apparently unsuccess-
fully, to stall for time. On 31 July, Party Presi-
dent Aylwin sent Allende a letter that again set
forth the Christian Democrats' terms for a politi-
cal truce. According to Aylwin, Allende has prom-
ised to reply today.
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In the meantime, violent incidents are on the
rise, with the most serious cases involving govern-
ment attempts to requisition idle trucks. The gov-
ernment, however, may be making some headway in ne-
gotiating an end to the partial bus owners' strike,
and a break could also be forthcoming in the stand-
off between the regime and striking truck owners.
Allende probably is inclined to try to ease
political as well as labor unrest through compromise,
but he undoubtedly is genuinely concerned that the
Socialist Party might leave the Popular Unity coali-
tion if it decides he has "betrayed the revolution."
Allende needs to make a reply to the Christian Demo-
crats that will keep the dialogue alive and keep
his governing coalition together.
2 Aug 73
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ROMANIA-UN-NONALIGNMENT: Bucharest will try
to use UN Secretary General Waldheim's attendance
at the nonaligned summit next month to legitimize
its own participation and to further its foreign
policy "principles."
Waldheim will be in Romania from 5 to 7 August
and will almost certainly be received by President
Ceausescu. Nonalignment and the Middle East situa-
tion will undoubtedly be the primary topics of their
discussions. Following a vacation in Austria, Wald-
heim may visit Egypt, Israel, and Jordan possibly in
late August and early September, before going on to
Algiers to become the first secretary general of the
UN to attend a nonaligned summit.
Waldheim's presence at the conference, slated
for 5 to 8 September, will dovetail with Romania's
decision to break ranks with its Warsaw Pact allies
by sending an observer to the meeting. Bucharest
will probably argue that the presence of such diverse
political voices as the UN Secretary General and
Fidel Castro demonstrates the correctness of Romanian
foreign policy. From Bucharest's point of view,
this approach could provide useful leverage in the
event that the Romanians are criticized again by
their Pact allies for yet another show of independ-
2 Aug 73
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INTERNATIONAL LABOR: Tentative agreement has
beer ?hed to hold ameeti.ng of trade union offi-
cials from Eastern and Western Europe in Geneva next
January coincident with the International Labor Or-
ganization (ILO) regional conference.
Last weekend six trade union leaders--three
from the East and three from the West--met in Vienna
to discuss and schedule the January meeting. A
steering group had been formed in 1971 to plan for
such a conference. The joint communique issued
after the Vienna meeting provides that East-West
labor talks will be held in January; an Austrian
trade unionist will chair the session.
The communique is vague on participation and
agenda, reflecting the concerns of the Western nego-
tiators, all of whom are members of the Interna-
tional Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU).
The ICFTU members have emphasized that the session
can succeed only if differences in political sys-
tems are respected and the agenda is limited to
functional issues falling properly in the trade
union domain. Moreover, each national ICFTU affil-
iate is to make its own decision about attendance
at the session. This cautious approach was required
because the Soviets have consistently sought to in-
clude political issues.
The agreement reached in Vienna last weekend
will permit Communist unions in the West, including
the major ones in France and Italy, to attend the
session next January. Representatives of Greece,
Portugal, and Spain will not be invited. East
Germany will be represented.
The Vienna agreement is a qualified victory
for Soviet trade union boss Shelepin, who was the
principal Communist participant. He has long pushed
for a pan-European gathering to demonstrate the
progress being made toward detente, and the communi-
que highlights the parallel with improving govern-
mental relations in Europe. Shelepin probably
would have preferred, however, that the meeting in
January be staged with no connection to the ILO.
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JAPAN: The Japanese shipbuilding industry,
which accounts for about half of world ship con-
struction by tonnage, is booming despite this year's
appreciation of the yen. Foreign orders for ships
dropped after the yen appreciation in 1971, but re-
bounded in the last quarter of 1972 and have re-
mained high. In April and May of this year, Japa-
nese yards contracted to build 83 vessels for export
at a cost of nearly $1 billion. Almost two thirds
of this was for 20 tankers, including three 400,000-
ton crude carriers and two sophisticated liquified
natural gas carriers. Japanese yards insist that
contracts be written in yen in order to protect
themselves against further currency realignments.
EAST GERMANY: Walter Ulbricht's death is un-
likely to have a major impact on the East German
regime. Ulbricht had been without power since Erich
Honecker replaced him as Social Unity (Communist)
Party general secretary in May 1971. Honecker is
in firm control of the political apparatus, in part
because of the uncertain health of his presumed
rival, Minister-President Willi Stoph. The dispo-
sition of Ulbricht's remaining positions, chairman
of the State Council and honorary party chairman,
may provide some insights into the relative stand-
ings of Stoph and other leaders close to the top.
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Libya: Negotiations with the oil companies have
been resumed, and government fire is again concen-
trated on the major independent producers, Occidental
and Oasis. The government has threatened a complete
take-over on 15 August unless a settlement including
government acquisition of 51 percent of company as-
sets and an oil buy-back agreement was concluded.
This proposition represents a major withdrawal from
the "100-percent participation" that Libya was de-
manding earlier.
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USSR-E ypt-US: Two Soviet tankers are en route
to the US with over 90,000 tons of Egyptian crude oil. 25X1
Previously, most oil obtained by the USSR from Eg
was delivered to Eastern Europe and Cuba. Moscow
began deliveries of crude oil to the US last year,
all from Soviet production.
International Monetary Developments: The dollar
remained steady on European money markets yesterday.
Traders, however, are concerned about German monetary
policy, fearing that tightening of credit will again
exert upward pressures on the mark.
EC-US: Negotiations on compensation due the
US because of tariff increases arising from enlarge-
ment of the EC will probably not progress before late
September, when the EC Council will consider further
concessions to its trading partners. In the mean-
time, time, EC working groups will attempt to improve th
EC offer. There have been signs recently of some
flexibility by Paris on this issue.
European Space Conference: European participa-
tion in the US post-Apollo Spacelab project was assured
this week. A possible French roadblock to approva
was removed by the British decision to pay part of
the costs of a new French launcher project. These
agreements, including French support for a naviga-
tional satellite of interest to the UK, have also
opened the way for establishing a unified European
Space Agency next year.
ntinued)
2 Aug 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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Commonwealth Conference: The nine-day meeting
of the Commonwealth heads government opens today
in Ottawa. All signs point to a quiet conference,
unlike the 1971 affair, which was dominated by hot
debate on Britain's relations with South Africa.
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West Germany - Bulgaria: Bonn agreed yesterday
to establish diplomatic relations with Bulgaria.
The West Germans will begin negotiations with Buda-
pest later this month on establishing relations;
Hungary and Albania are now the only states in East-
ern Europe without diplomatic relations with Bonn.
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*These items were prepared by CIA without consultation
with the Departments of State and Defense.
2 Aug 73
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