CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A024900120001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 12, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 28, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C 04
1 28 July 1973
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
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JAPAN-VIETNAM: Tokyo may extend emergency humani-
tarian aid to Saigon. (Page 3)
GREECE: In address on eve of plebiscite Papadop-
oulos warns he will deal harshly with dissenters.
(Page 4)
EGYPT: Sadat condemns US veto at UN in harsh terms.
(Page 6)
CUBA: Unrelenting hostility toward US again main
theme of Castro speech. (Page 7)
USSR-CUBA: Soviets sending another small naval
group to Cuba. (Page 8)
UK: London moves to relieve pressures on pound.
Page 9)
AUSTRALIA: Canberra expects sharp increase in wheat
production in coming year. (Page 10)
COLOMBIA: Expropriation of US mining firm planned.
(Page 11)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 12)
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JAPAN-VIETNAM: Tokyo will probably soon ex-
tend emergency humanitarian. aid to South Vietnam
on a bilateral basis. A combination of grants and
loans totaling some $50 million will likely be pro-
vided in response to Saigon's request for aid for
refugee relief and rehabilitation. However, no
dispersal will be made until after 28 September,
when the extended Diet session ends and the Tanaka
administration will not have to ask for approval.
Earlier this year, Tokyo granted Saigon nearly $2
million for refugee relief.
Despite South Vietnam's difficult balance-of-
payments situation, Tokyo is not willing to provide
direct assistance in the form of foreign exchange
grants. Japan is, however, willing to provide
balance-of-payments assistance in a multi-lateral
context, as it is doing in Laos and Cambodia. Tokyo
indicated it may consider a, commodity import loan
to South Vietnam, which could help ease Saigon's
balance of payments by financing imports and gen-
erating local currency for refugee programs. Such
a loan would probably not provide much relief before
next year.
Over the longer term, large-scale Japanese aid
for South Vietnam's reconstruction and economic de-
velopment will be provided through multi-lateral
channels. Tokyo is awaiting the establishment of a
consultative group for South Vietnam, composed of
all prospective donors, which is likely to be opera-
tional by early 1974.
Except for limited humanitarian aid, Japan's
economic assistance to North Vietnam remains con-
tingent on the establishment of diplomatic ties
between Tokyo and Hanoi. Negotiations to normalize
relations began in Paris on 25 July, and prior to
the opening of talks the North Vietnamese charge
spoke of concluding negotiations in about two weeks.
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r GREECE: George Papadopoulos addressed a resent-
ful, but probably resigned, Greek electorate ye s-
terday, capping a heavy-handed campaign intended to
assure ratification of a new republic with himself
at its head.
Papadopoulos, increasingly estranged from his
fellow officers in recent days, warned that he would
deal harshly with divisions in the country. He
promised that, if elected president of the new re-
public through a "yes" vote in tomorrow's plebiscite,
he would:
--allow the formation of political parties,
--lift martial law and restore full individual
freedoms,
--refrain from engaging in partisan politics
as president, and
--implement the entire constitution and all
laws of the country.
Papadopoulos promised, however, that the revolution--
presumably his government--would continue even in
the unlikely event that the republic were voted down.
Meanwhile, reports of unrest in the military
continue. The US Defense Attache in Athens charac-
terizes the mood of the military as tense.
-::recently
warned Papadopoulos that many right-wing army offi-
cers are apprehensive about the course he has em-
barked upon. At heart, these officers are worried
that Papadopoulos as president will usurp their own
personal power, although their warning to Papadop-
oulos was that the displacement of the military re-
gime by a republic would weaken the nation and dis-
rupt its alliances.
3
(continued.)
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C The plebiscite could provide the issue Papa-
dopoulos' military critics have been waiting for
to move against him. They have been signaling
their disaffection with increasing urgency, but
they may have waited too long. The junta leader
appears confident that they, will not risk splitting
the armed forces in a last--mirnute effort to block
this step to supreme power.,
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EGYPT: President Sadat has condemned the US
veto at the UN in terms so harsh as to suggest that
he holds no hope for early progress toward negotia-
tions.
In a speech at Alexandria University, Sadat
charged that the US action proves conclusively that
Washington has joined Tel Aviv in a campaign to
force Egypt to sue abjectly for peace. Expound-
ing on a theme he used often earlier this year,
Sadat said that the US-Israeli tactics are designed
to make Egypt "explode from. within."
Sadat spoke in measured tones, saying that
Egypt must not react "nervously or emotionally."
Referring, as he has on several occasions in the
past two weeks, to the need for a reassessment of
Egypt's policies in the light of US-Soviet detente,
Sadat said that the Egyptians must prepare them-
selves for a struggle that could last generations.
Sadat admitted implicitly that detente has necessi-
tated a halt to Egyptian war plans and that Egypt
is not prepared to use the US veto as the occasion
to begin military action.
He views the veto, however, as a block to dip-
lomatic progress. Sadat did not suggest that the
veto will impede UN Secretary General Waldheim's
visit to the Middle East, but he did say that Egypt's
own diplomatic campaign, begun early this year with
Hafiz Ismail's visits to the US and Western Europe,
had ended with the veto. Sadat's speech implied
that at this point no acceptable diplomatic path
is open to Egypt.
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CUBA: Unrelenting hostility toward the US was
once again a main theme of Fidel Castro's anniversary
speech on 26 July.
By casting the US and Cuba as adversaries, he
underscored his rejection of detente and confirmed
his espousal of confrontation as the best means of
capitalizing on what he sees as an anti-US trend in
Latin America. His call for the replacement of the
OAS by a new regional body minus the US was a reit-
eration of his long-standing determination not to
associate with that organization under any circum-
stances.
While he declined to follow Moscow's policy
of detente, Castro had warm praise for Soviet eco-
nomic and military assistance and defended the USSR
against "certain leaders.. .of the third world" who
speak of "two imperialisms." He characterized those
who draw parallels between the USSR and the US as
servants of the "real imperialism." Castro probably
made these statements with an eye on the conference
of so-called non-aligned countries, scheduled for
Algeria in September. He may attend the conference,
and if he does, he will attempt to orient the pro-
ceedings against the US.
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USSR-CUBA: The Soviets are sending another
small naval group to Cuba, the tenth such visit
since 1969.
The ships--a Kresta-II class guided-missile
cruiser and Kanin-class destroyer--are being ac-
companied by a tanker. They are expected to arrive
in the Caribbean on 29 July--Soviet Navy Day. The
group was about 300 miles southeast of Bermuda on
27 July. One or more submarines could also be en
route to Cuba.
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UK: London has moved to relieve the pressure
on the pound. Sterling has fallen sharply in recent
weeks, pushing the pound 19 percent lower on a trade-
weighted basis than in December 1971. In an attempt
to reverse the trend, the Bank of England made heavy
purchases of sterling on Friday and announced that
its minimum lending rate was being raised from 9
to 11.5 percent. Following these actions, sterling
closed 1 percent higher.
While the minimum lending rate was increased
primarily to shore up the pound, the move should
help prevent overheating of the domestic economy
later this year. Recent projections show the
Gross National Product rising at an annual rate of
6 percent through the rest of 1973--higher than in
recent years. Signs of strain on industrial capac-
ity are already appearing. This increase in the
cost of credit will tend to slow expansion and ease
pressure on capacity. F_ I
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AUSTRALIA: Canberra expects a sharp increase
in wheat production during the coming crop year.
Based on surveys of the acreage planted in June,
the harvest, which begins in December, is expected
to yield 11-12 million metric tons compared with
only 6.4 million tons from the last crop which was
hit by drought. The world's third largest wheat
exporter, Australia is projecting exports in 1974
at almost double the 1973 level. Commitments of
730,000 tons from the new crop already have been
made to Japan, and the Australian Wheat Board has
reportedly offered 1 million tons to the Chinese
trade delegation recentl in Canberra.
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COLOMBIA: President Pastrana has announced
he would seek legislation to expropriate, without
compensation, the US-owned International Mining
Corporation holdings in Colombia. As justification
for this move, he cited the corporation's refusal
of the government's proposal last March that the
company relinquish 51-percent interest in its op-
erating gold mines in exchange for a 49-percent
share in a new joint venture.
While properties controlled by the corpora-
tion account for about 70 percent of Colombia's
gold output, their production has been declining
for the past decade because exploitable reserves
in several concession areas are nearly exhausted.
The corporation management is apparently divided
in its views on the seriousness of the latest
threat, some regarding it as simply another Colom-
bian ploy. The government, however, may find it
politically impossible in this pre-election per
to back down from Pastrana's pronouncement.
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EC-US: Following a visit to Washington last
week to discuss US soybean controls, EC Commissioner
Lardinois has suggested a weekly exchange of infor-
mation between the EC and the US on the shortages
of grains and protein sources, particularly oilseeds.
Lardinois also favors a conference, at which the US,
the EC, Japan, Australia, and Canada would disci4ss
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Australia-China: The two countries have signed
a three-year general trade agreement, which seeks to
encourage exchanges of commodities and technology.
The negotiators failed to agree on long-term fi-
nancing of agricultural exports. China is primarily
interested in Australia's agricultural and mineral
commodities; Australia looks to China mainly for
textiles.
International Monetary Developments: The dol-
lar yesterday gained back some of the losses suf-
fered earlier in the week. This was in part because
of reports of continuing improvement in the US trade
position. The dollar was also helped by the easing
of credit conditions in West Germany and the reduced
demand for the mark. Nevertheless, the joint float
remained under pressure and substantial intervention
was needed to sustain it.
South Vietnam: Saigon will soon announce that
it is breaking relations with Senegal because Dakar
recognized the Viet Congts Provisional Revolutionary
Government. Saigon is willing to continue relations
with countries that recognize Hanoi, but it remains
unwilling to maintain ties with those that support
the thesis that there are two governments in the
South.
*These items were prepared by CIA without consulta-
tion with the Departments of State and Defense.
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