CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A023400110001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 29, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 23, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/12/19: CIA-RDP79T00975A023SeI6M1-9
D
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review completed
Secret
N2 42
23 December 1972
Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023400110001-9
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9
Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9
SECRET
No. 0307/72
23 December 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
USSR-CHILE: Allende reportedly disappointed with
results of Moscow trip. (Page 1)
JAPAN: Program to cut trade surplus moves slowly.
(Page 4)
CAMBODIA: Recent low level of fighting contrasts
markedly with last year. (Page 5)
INDIA: Widespread hunger likely until spring har-
vest. (Page 6)
CHINA - US - NORTH VIETNAM: Chinese merchant ship
damaged by US air attack (Page 7)
JAPAN: Tanaka picks experienced policy-makers for
new cabinet (Page 7)
Approved For Release 2003/1?'A
C R1DP79T00975AO23400110001-9
ERE
 Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9
SECRET
USSR-CHILE: President Allende reportedly was
disappointed with the results of his visit to Moscow
two weeks ago.
Evidence is mounting that Mosc
large-scale "bail-out" assistance.
refused Allende
(Soviet com-
mentary on the Allende visit was ex er e while he
was in the USSR, but since then has been infrequent.
The most authoritative media treatment, in Pravda
on 15 December, gave no indication that any new
agreements had been signed.
The Soviets apparently believe that Chile is
in serious economic difficulty because of errors in
economic policy that will take many years to correct.
If Moscow
were to provide Allende witri e hard cur-
rency assistance he sought, it would entail major
sacrifices for the USSR at a time when its foreign
exchange position is being strained by the need to
finance large grain imports.
Moscow's apparent refusal to bail out Allende
leaves the Chilean economy in dire straits. Chile
is encountering increasing difficulty in obtaining
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/12/1?.te4t~ff79T00975A023400110001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/1$BC}CIF-1 DP79T00975A023400110001-9
financial help from traditional West European cred-
itors
ecause o a ing exports and exhausted foreign ex-
change reserves, Chile's import capacity will be
down by more than $300 million in 1973, unless ad-
ditional hard currency credits are obtained.
23 Dec 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/ /1 di'A-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9
Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/11E-1FDP79T00975A023400110001-9
JAPAN: The Japanese continue to move slowly
in implementing reductions in import quotas and
imposing export restraints, two key elements of its
program to cut the trade surplus.
Progress in reducing import quotas has been
especially slow. Tokyo originally stated it would
ease quotas on most restricted items, but the Min-
istry of Agriculture and Forestry, which exercises
control over 23 products, has so far decided to in-
crease the quota for only one item--beef. The Min-
istry of International Trade and Industry has done
more, but has agreed to raise quota levels on only
five of the nine products under its control.
On the export side, some 20 items have been
selected for restraints. The effective date of
this measure is scheduled for 1 January, following
repeated delays.
The economic program as a whole has been con-
demned as weak by both Japanese and foreigners.
The economic ministries may be dragging their feet
because they think that their efforts will be un-
done by a yen revaluation in the next few months.
23 Dec 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/9cA1A! DP79T00975A023400110001-9
 25)1
Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023400110001-9
SECRET
CAMBODIA: The low level of combat in recent
months stands in marked contrast to the fighting
a year ago.
Last year at this time government units north
and west of Phnom Penh were engaged in heavy fight-
ing with seasoned Vietnamese Communist units. With
the Communist spring offensive in South Vietnam,
however, most of these enemy forces were returned to
South Vietnam, leaving the Khmer Communists largely
on their own. Although the insurgents' ability to
conduct and coordinate tactical operations continues
to improve, they do not appear capable of dealing
any decisive military setbacks to the defensive-minded
Cambodian Army.
Most of the fighting during the last four
months has resulted from periodic Khmer Communist
interdictions of major highways. Diminished Commu-
nist activity along Routes 4 and 5 is making it
possible for the government to move badly needed
supplies of rice and other goods to Phnom Penh.
Cambodian and South Vietnamese forces are now try-
ing to clear Route 2 between Takeo and the South
Vietnamese border.
In addition to interdiction operations, the
Communists have also been putting pressure on sev-
eral provincial capitals--most recently Sithe iso-
lated northern town of Kompong Thom.
Communist forces have carried out a series
of shellings and ground probes against Cambodian
positions in and around the town. Although the
Cambodians have abandoned a few positions, the
2,600-man garrison does not appear to be in grave
danger. The government is now airlifting rein-
forcements and has re laced the inept local com-
mander.
23 Dec 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
Approved For Release 2003/12/19Sf1Q: y9T00975A023400110001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/12-LC~i&-DP79T00975A023400110001-9
INDIA: Widespread hunger is likely to last
until the spring harvest begins in April.
Drought has affected many areas, and acute
food shortages are occurring in a wide belt across
central India. State officials expressed concern
that the central government has provided them with
only half the amount of foodstuffs needed in recent
weeks. US officials and volunteer agencies on the
scene believe that central government stocks and
distribution are insufficient to deal with the
emergency.
Government foodgrain stocks, which totaled
nine million tons in August, dropped to four mil-
lion as of 1 November, and 3.2 million tons a
month later. Exports to other states by private
traders in some surplus states were banned in an
effort to get the grain into government hands.
This move, however, has aggravated food shortages
in nearby drought-affected states.
The government has purchased an estimated
500,000 tons of foodgrains abroad since mid-Novem-
ber, about half of this from the US. Although
New Delhi claims shipments will begin arriving
next month, the volume will not reach substantial
proportions until February or later. In any case,
imported grains usually are distributed to the
large coastal cities, thereby doing little to help
the hardest hit inland areas.
In an effort to achieve a more equitable dis-
tribution of grain throughout the nation, New
Delhi is using the emergency situation to push the
state governments to take over the wholesale grain
trade beginning with next spring's harvest. Be-
cause the states lack facilities, however, such
moves will further disrupt distribution channels
and may cause even greater hardship.
23 Dec 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 200389]M$)?V-RDP79T00975A023400110001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/'W tkWDP79T00975A023400110001-9
CHINA - US - NORTH VIETNAM: Peking has reacted
in a low-key and measured way to a US air attack on
20 December that damaged a Chinese merchant ship in
Haiphong harbor. In a terse broadcast on 21 Decem-
ber, the New China News Agency expressed the Chinese
people's "extreme indignation" over the incident,
but implied there were no casualties and little dam-
age. The broadcast said that the Chinese Government
"strongly protests the provocative act" and insists
that the US "immediately stop attacking" Chinese
ships and "guarantee" against any recurrence. NCNA
asserted that Peking "is closely watching the devel-
opment of daily expanding US war activities"--the
first hint that renewed US military operations
against North Vietnam have engaged Peking's serious
attention. This formulation stops far short of a
Chinese statement last June that such operations
"threatened" China's security.
JAPAN: Prime Minister Tanaka's new cabinet
places experienced policy-makers in key economic and
foreign affairs posts, and papers over factional dif-
ferences in the ruling party. Masayoshi Ohira re-
mains as foreign minister, and Kiichi Aichi, one.of
Japan's most able statesmen, will assume the finance
portfolio with responsibility for the sensitive is-
sue of yen revaluation. Nakasone retained the min-
istry of international trade and industry, but Tanaka
will probably continue to take a large personal role
in trade matters. In the face of leftist gains in
the 10 December general elections, the prime minister
is placing a high priority on closing the ranks of
his conservative party. He succeeded in persuading
Takeo Fukuda, whom he defeated for the prime ministry
last July, to accept a minor post in the new cabinet.
23 Dec 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1
Approved For Release 2003/12/' co iTP79T00975A023400110001-9
 Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9
Secret
Secret
Approved For Release 2003/12/19 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23400110001-9