CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A023200050001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 28, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 16, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 041
16 November 1972
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No. 0275/72
16 November 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
LAOS: More government military setbacks. (Page 1)
EAST GERMANY: Domestic propaganda attacks West
Germany's Social Democratic Party. (Page 2)
UGANDA: Plotting against Amin alleged. (Page 4)
ROMANIA:' Austerity campaign shaping up. (Page 6)
HAITI: President initiates cabinet shakeup. (Page 7)
USSR-SOMALIA: Military aid (Page 8)
INDONESIA: Foreign aid request ;(Page 8)
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Communist-held location
A Highpoint
Lat Boua
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Khouangvill
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LAOS: The Communists have inflicted fresh set-
backs on irregular forces near the Plaine des Jarres.
Heavy artillery attacks, followed by ground
assaults by elements of two North Vietnamese regi-
ments on 14 November, forced Vang Pao's task force
to give up positions around Khang Kho, seven miles
south of the Plaine. Communist troops ambushed the
irregulars as they withdrew toward the government
base at Pha Dong, and preliminary reports indicate
that government casualties are high.
North of the Plaine, continued Communist shell-
ings on 13 and 14 November caused irregular battal-
ions to abandon positions along Route 71 and at a
nearby artillery site. Government commanders are
attempting to regroup these forces south of Bouam
Long.
With these two irregular forces in retreat,
the North Vietnamese appear to be preparing for ac-
tion against another irregular task force in the
hills southwest of the Plaine. US pilots report
that Route 54, the main Communist supply route into
this area, has been repaired and could now support
a Communist thrust in the sector. If the Communists
should breach the government defenses southwest of
the Plaine, they could the kl move into the
immediate Sam Thong area.
16 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EAST GERMANY: Pankow has resumed its ideologi-
cal attack on West Germany's Social Democratic Party
in an effort to underscore the limits the Communist
regime intends to place on the normalization of re-
lations.
The ideological campaign, muted during the re-
cent inter-German treaty talks, flared up again as
the negotiations ended. The treaty, if ratified
and implemented, will mark a significant departure
from East Germany's policy of isolation from West
Germany, and Pankow is anxious to control the do-
mestic impact and to preserve internal security.
By stressing the inferiority of West German social
democracy, Pankow is reminding its citizens that
the advantages flowing to them from detente, such
as increased travel to the West, are limited.
East German media have specifically denounced
alleged Social Democratic efforts to influence the
East German population and have emphasized the "un-
bridgeable differences" between East and West German
societies. The criticism also hits the Social
Democrats' alleged adherence to capitalistic doc-
trines and their corruption of the international
socialist movement.
The campaign is also a defensive reaction to
West German Chancellor Brandt's long-term objective
of a united Germany. The Communists' ideological
hostility toward Brandt's Social Democrats has been
in evidence throughout the course of Ostpolitik,
and it reflects in part the historic competition
between the Communist and Social Democratic parties
for the allegiance of German intellectuals and
workers. As an East German ideologue recently put
it, the leaders in Pankow do not believe their
people wish to reinstate a Western, capitalist eco-
nomic system; nevertheless, the Communists fear
that the Social Democrats may some day establish
in West Germany a modern democratic socialist state
around which all Germans might wish to rally.
(continued)
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The East German ideological attacks do not,
however, reflect an intent to renege on the prac-
tical agreements with Bonn. The regime continues
to praise the Brandt government for its construc-
tive foreign policies and will continue to seek
to do business with Bonn.
16 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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UGANDA: President Amin has received reports
of two new plots against him, one by cabinet members
and one by the military.
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It is unlikely that the cabinet is engaged in
any serious plotting.
the cabinet, frequently castigated by Amin for the
country's ills, have been so cowed by the president
that they have generally avoided doing anything that
might run counter to his views.
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THE army
has long been roubIeedytribal unres aggravated
by Amin's recruitment of large numbers of his fellow
Kakwa tribesmen. Amin has attempted to placate his
troops with more pay and other benefits and by ig-
noring their extortion of departing Asians, but the
military is an increasingly uncertain prop for the
regime.
Amin's moves against the Israelis and Asians
have been popular with many Ugandans and this may
encourage him to expel some UK and US citizens.
(continued)
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The president's domestic credibility has suffered,
however, as a result of his harsh repression of
large numbers of Ugandans, including professional
people, military personnel, civil servants, and
tribal leaders suspected of opposing the regime.
His popularity also may decline as the economic
consequences of the Asian exodus are felt.
16 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ROMANIA: The government is preparing the
public for an extensive austerity campaign in the
months ahead.
For the past few weeks, the press has urged
efficient use of raw materials in manufacturing,
better planning in the transport sector, and con-
servation of electricity and fuels. Campaigns
like this have occurred in the past, but not with
the same scope or intensity. Reports indicate
that the government is informing the public of the
measures in community meetings. Austerity meas-
ures, thus far, have been directed at the level of
new construction. Only projects that increase the
economy's productive capacity will be authorized,
while construction of schools, hospitals, and cul-
tural centers will be halted or postponed.
This belt-tightening apparently is the result
of Romania's shortage of foreign exchange and
President Ceausescu's inability to obtain the de-
sired level of credit from the West. The mixed re-
sults of this year's harvest have reduced exportable
surpluses, while the need to import capital goods is
increasing. Production of oil has leveled off in
recent years and Romania has had to import oil to
meet its increasing domestic demand and foreign com-
mitments.
16 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 6
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C HAITI: President Jean-Claude Duvalier ousted
his most prominent cabinet minister late yesterday
in the first major cabinet shuffle since taking of-
fice in April 1971.
Minister of Interior and National Defense Luck-
ner Cambronne was replaced by a long-time Duvalier
confidant, Roger Lafontant, formerly Haitian consul
general in New York. The Secretary of State for
Justice, Andre Rousseau, was also replaced.
While Cambronne is acknowledged to have played
an important role in improving Haiti's reputation,
his aggressive manner and greed earned him enemies
both in and out of government. The President may
have decided that Cambronne's expanding influence
should be checked before it could seriously disrupt
the 18-month old government.
Cambronne's removal apparently has not caused
any immediate problems for the government. The at-
mosphere in the capital was desc ibed last night as
calm, with no unusual activity.
16 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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USSR-SOMALIA: Moscow appears to have increased
its military deliveries to Somalia. Two Soviet
freighters have arrived in Mogadiscio this month
with at least 15 100-mm. artillery pieces, vehicles,
and two MIG-15 jets, the first fighter aircraft
delivered to Somalia in two years. Other recent
shipments have included one P-6 patrol boat, three
helicopters, and armored personnel carriers.
INDONESIA: Jakarta will request $750 million
in foreign assistance for the year ending in March
1974 at next month's meeting of the Indonesia aid
consortium. The consortium consists of a number of
major Western countries, Japan, and several inter-
national development organizations. The new aid
requested is only about three percent more than
Indonesia has been pledged under this year's pro-
gram. This largely reflects the boom in export
earnings which is enabling Indonesia to finance a
growing share of its own foreign exchange needs.
Sales of crude oil, for example, are expected to
exceed $1 billion next year as a result of higher
world market prices and increasing production.
The major portion of the aid---about $380 million--
will consist of project aid. Some $160 million
has been requested for food aid, and '210 million
for other assistance programs.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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