CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A023100110001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 9, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 41
9 November 1972
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No. 0269/72
9 November 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
NORTH VIETNAM: Hanoi is repairing key rail lines.
(Page 1)
ARGENTINA: Preparations apparently under way for
the return of Peron. (Page 2)
YUGOSLAVIA: Tito's popular prestige has suffered
because of his drive for greater discipline. (Page 3)
UGANDA: Most Asians out by deadline (Page 5)
PAKISTAN: Diplomatic moves favorable to Asian Com-
munist regimes (Page 5)
MALAGASY REPUBLIC - CHINA: Relations established
(Page 6)
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NORTH VIETNAM: Bridge Repairs
CHINA
AILAND
LAOS
aiptio+9
iFMft iTh:RrZ#D ton'
duang Tri
,sour -S-
VIETNAM
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NORTH VIETNAM: The North Vietnamese have
taken advantage of the restrictions on bombing
north of the 20th Parallel to repair the vital
northeast rail line. Except for a small segment
just north of Hanoi, this line is open. Repairs
are also being made on the line from Hanoi to
Thanh Hoa. Aerial photography shows
that the missing center span o the Dap au rail
bridge has been replaced and a bypass near the Bac
Giang Bridge has been repaired. The Canal des
Rapides and the Paul Doumer bridges at Hanoi are
being repaired, but both bridges require major
reconstruction before they can reopen for rail
traffic.
By early November, the North Vietnamese had
repaired two of the four unserviceable crossings
on the rail line south of Hanoi, and the other
two are under repair. The Bien Son rail bridge
has been rebuilt and a new rail pontoon bridge
has been constructed at Ninh Binh. In addition,
some of the downed spans have been replaced on
the bridges at Phu Ly and Dong Phuong Thuong. No
repair activities have been noted at the Thanh
Hoa bridge, probably because it is located below
the 20th Parallel.
9 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ARGENTINA: The Lanusse government, like the
Peronist leaders, appears to be making preparations
for the return of Juan Peron.
Only hours after Hector Campora, Peron's per-
sonal representative in Argentina, announced last
Tuesday that the 77-year-old former president would
return to his homeland on 17 November, Lanusse told
the nation that the armed forces would guarantee
Peron's personal safety and deal with any threats
to domestic peace by either pro- or anti-Peronists.
Lanusse said that he had earlier doubted that Peron
would ever return but gave clear indications that
he now expects him to come.
Peron has said before that he would return,
once even coming as far as Brazil before being
turned back, and this announcement may be no more
than another attempt to throw the opposition off
balance and to pressure President Lanusse into
agreeing to Peron's demands. It seems more likely,
however, that this time Peron has recognized that
he must return or face a serious loss of prestige.
Most speculation in recent weeks has been that
if Peron returns it will be for only a few days and
for the purpose of personally endorsing an electoral
accord with the military. The short lead time on
Campora's announcement and the tenor of Lanusse's
speech indicate that the Peronists and the govern-
ment may be very close to an agreement on the con-
duct of the national elections next March and on
the orientation of the government that will take
power in May. It is uncertain whether agreement
on a presidential ticket will be part of such an
accord or whether the problem of finding an accept-
able candidate will be worked out later.
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YUGOSLAVIA: Tito's popular prestige--his trump
card in past disputes--has suffered because of seri-
ous doubts about his tough drive to strengthen party
rule
Although unanimous support for Tito is being
voiced at party meetings, he has suffered several
important embarrassments. In addition to the res-
ignation of Foreign Minister Tepavac, Tito has had
to accept the resignation of Koca Popovic, a member
of the collective presidency, long-time Tito con-
fidant, and a popular figure in Serbia. Popovic's
action is clearly intended as a protest against
Tito's campaign to combat centrifugal forces in
regional party organizations by recentralizing party
authority. Popovic's departure is likely to create
more doubts about the wisdom of Tito's course.
Grumbling in the regime has penetrated to the lower
levels, where a few Serb critics have even voiced
regret over the fact that the 80-year-old leader
is in such good health.
Most Yugoslavs still revere Tito as the man
who pulled them through World War II and the subse-
quent break with Stalin. His design for tighter
central control, however, comes as a rude shock,
and the growing middle class particularly fears
some aspects of his economic program. Tito's in-
flated rhetoric about "illegally acquired wealth"
has already caused some landlords to evict tenants
rather than face charges of amassing "unearned"
wealth. During a speech to factory workers in
Macedonia on 6 November, Tito tried to allay worker
fears that their "earned wealth" would be confis-
cated, but he again demanded moves against various
traders, merchants, bankers, and speculators.
Tito has taken a calculated risk in advocating
these new programs, and he thinks he can ride out
dissatisfaction. Thus far, he is sticking firmly
to the outlines he has set, and has let it be known
that he will not be swayed either by grumbling at
home or by "distorted" press coverage abroad.
(continued)
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The purge in Serbia is now spreading to the
public information media. The chief editors of
three major newspapers and the head of the state
television network have been sacked. Once the
media are brought into line, Tito may turn his
attention to the remaining support rs of ex-party
boss Nikezic.
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C UGANDA: President Amin's deadline for the de-
parture o non-citizen Asians passed yesterday appar-
ently without major incidents, and almost all non-
citizen Asians were evacuated. About 1,500 state-
less Asians remain, however, along with.a few thou-
sand Asians with Ugandan citizenship and those ex-
empted from expulsion because of their much-needed
technical skills. The UN has set up departure cen-
ters in Kampala for the remaining stateless Asians
and will try to move them to facilities in Europe
and elsewhere by the end of the week. Amin has also
attempted to hasten the departure of Asians with
Ugandan citizenship by ordering them to relocate in
rural areas where they will be permitted to engage
in little more than subsistence agriculture. As
long as Asians remain in Uganda, they will face har-
assment, such as Amin's order for a head count today,
or more unpleasant incidents at the hands-of the
army, now on full alert.
PAKISTAN: On 7 November, Islamabad recognized
Hanoi, it will recognize Pyongyang today, and may
be considering early recognition of Sihanouk's
"Royal Government of National Union." Yesterday,
the Pakistanis began the formalities for withdraw-
ing from SEATO. President Bhutto apparently made
these long contemplated moves for several reasons.
He wants to increase Pakistan's contacts with other
Asian nations, he wishes to improve relations fur-
ther with Peking, and he needs to counter criticism
by the left wing of his political part that his
foreign policy is too pro-American.
(continued)
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MALAGASY REPUBLIC - CHINA: Diplomatic rela-
tions were established with C ina on 6 November dur-
ing Foreign Minister Ratsiraka's visit to Peking.
The move is the latest step by the six-month-old
government of General Ramanantsoa in the redirection
of Malagasy's foreign policy, including broadening
relations with Communist countries. Diplomatic re-
lations were established with the Soviet Union in
September. The government apparently views rela-
tions with Communist countries as a means of expand-
ing Malagasy's trade and aid resources, strengthen-
ing its nonaligned credentials, and balancing its
close ties with the West. The government, however,
would prefer avoiding the establishment of large
Communist diplomatic or aid missions on the island.
9 Nov 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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