CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 18, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2003/08/05: CIA-RDP79T00975A02305"Bet0
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 041
18 October 1972
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23000050001-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23000050001-0
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO23000050001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
SECRET
No. 0250/72
18 October 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
USSR: The Soviet grain harvest faces a record lag.
Page 1)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Summit achievements likely
to be modest. Page 2)
YUGOSLAVIA: Tito seeks purge of Serbian leaders.
(Page 4)
CARIBBEAN: Guyana to establish diplomatic relations
with Cuba. (Page 6)
ITALY: Key labor negotiations open this week.
Page 7)
SENEGAL - PORTUGUESE GUINEA: Senegal charges Portu-
guese with aggression. Page 8)
CHILE: Strike continues to spread (Page 9)
EAST GERMANY: Inter-German detente measures (Page 9)
INTERNATIONAL OIL: Arab Persian Gulf states nego-
tiations (Page 10)
JAPAN: US military presence (Page 10)
JAPAN-US: Record exports to US (Page 11)
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
Pace Slows in Soviet Grain Harvest
(Million hectares)*
Week of
Cut
Threshed
Aug 15-21
6.5
5.7
Aug 22.28
6.8
4.7
Aug 29 - Sept 4
10.2
5.7
Sept 5-11
9.1
6.4
Sept 12-18
5.7
5.3
Sept 19-25
4.1
7.7
Sept 26 - Oct 2
1.9
5.9
Oct 3-9
1.1
4.5
Million hectares
remaining 9 11
114 million hectares were sown to grain on state
and collective farms.
SECRET
Approved or Release
- -
21913 '113701070
 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
SECRET
25X1
USSR: There is a near record lag in completing
the grain harvest. Ten percent of all grain still
had not been threshed as of 9 October.
The grain harvest in the Russian republic,
which produces about 60 percent of all Soviet grain,
has not been completed. The crop here will be down
sharply this year because of drought in much of
European Russia. Moreover, in Siberia potentially
high yields now are threatened by the rain, snow,
and sleet of the past two weeks. Cool rainy weather
earlier in the summer delayed the ripening of the
crop by at least two weeks.
In the two remaining major grain-growing repub-
lics, the Soviets claim that a decline in the gross
output of the Ukraine was offset by a record crop
in Kazakhstan of 27 million tons. The Soviet fig-
ure for Kazakhstan, however, reflects an unusually
high moisture content because of this fall's excep-
tionally wet weather.
Two Soviet spokesmen have given estimates for
this year's gross grain output: one at 160 million
tons and the other at "no less" than the average of
1966-70, or about 168 million tons. Official West-
ern estimates center around 160 million which would
yield only about 128 million tons of net usable
grain--gross output minus moisture, waste, and
trash.
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
SECRET
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The nine participants at
the summit that opens tomorrow in Paris will seek to
inject more vigor into the European Communities, but
their specific achievements are likely to be modest.
With respect to the community's external rela-
tions, German officials have voiced considerable con-
fidence in the last few days that the summit will
recognize the need for a continuous EC-US dialogue
on outstanding problems. The French, however, fear
that formal consultative arrangements will weaken the
effort to establish a European "identity."
The summit leaders are likely to respond favor-
ably to US hopes for a re-endorsement of the EC's
commitment to participate constructively in a new
round of trade negotiations. They may also avoid
any formal commitment at this time to the proposed
new Mediterranean policy, to which the US has been
taking vigorous exception. The community leaders
seem likely to emphasize generally the EC's in-
creased sense of responsibility to do something more
for the developing countries.
On internal policies, there are no new ob-
stacles to approval of the proposed new European
monetary fund as a step toward monetary union. The
summit may encourage action on anti-inflationary
measures that EC authorities have been considering
during the past few weeks. The US would stand to
benefit from some of these, such as a freeze on
agricultural prices and a temporary 15-percent re-
duction in the EC's common external tariff. Such
proposals, however, face serious political ob-
stacles within EC countries.
The summit could begin adjusting the EC's pri-
orities, which up to now have allotted roughly 90
percent of the community's expenditures to the sub-
sidization of agriculture. Britain and Italy, in
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
0, Approve or Release -
 Approved For Release 2003/ R RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
particular, are expected to make a major effort to
obtain some commitment to a community-financed pro-
gram to encourage redevelopment in backward or de-
pressed community regions and provide increased so-
cial benefits generally. Most of the summit partici-
pants seem reconciled to a persisting impasse over
institutional reform, but they probably will agree
that some improvement in the European Parliament's
role is desirable.
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
25X1
 Approved For Release 2003//SRCRARDP79T00975A023000050001-0
YUGOSLAVIA: Tito is seeking a purge of top
Serbian party leaders who have not heeded his de-
mand for more obedience. His move to oust the de-
fiant Serbs, however, probably will encounter
stronger. resistance than the purge of Croat leaders
last year.
Tito's attack began on 16 October with a speech
criticizing unnamed Serb party leaders for opposing
his demands for a recentralization of the party and
for permitting factional activity, including attacks
on his methods. He called on the republic central
committee to throw out errant party leaders. He
also said that this decision came after four days
of fruitless debates between representatives of the
highest level federal and Serbian organizations.
Tito's actions closely parallel his tactics in
purging the Croat party leadership last December.
This time, however, Tito tacitly admitted that a
majority of the Serb speakers at the four-day meet-
ing did not agree with his assessment of the situ-
ation in Serbia. He has made it clear that he will
not back away from his stand, no matter what the
Serb leaders do.
Tito's immediate target is Serbian party boss
Marko Nikezic. Nikezic, who became party leader
during a wave of liberal reforms of the conserva-
tive republic party in 1968, has differed frequently
with Tito over proposed strengthening of the party's
central authority. Nikezic's appointees now control
most of the top party posts at the republic level.
Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether they
can stand firm against Tito's demands and pressure
from rural central committee representatives who
tend to be more conservative.
Tito probably will prevail because he has the
authority--backed up by loyal military and security
service support--and he has the will to use it.
He may again have to threaten its use, as he did
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
11111silill;11111 1111r
0, -
Approved For a ease
 Approved For Release 200E1'K-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
in Croatia, to overcome opposition. The Serbian
purge, however, may pose other problems. Yugosla-
via's other nationalities traditionally fear the
tendency of the Serbs to mix political orthodoxy
with chauvinism. The creation of a more conserva-
tive regime in Belgrade thus probably will cause
tensions elsewhere particularly in Croatia and the
Kosovo.
18 Oct 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/0 t.*DP79T00975A023000050001-0
CARIBBEAN: Guyana, Jamaica, Trinidad and
Tobago, and Barbados have agreed to follow a joint
policy toward Cuba, but the latter three countries
may be more hesitant than Guyana in normalizing re-
lations with Havana.
The opening toward Cuba was the most important
result of the conference of Commonwealth Caribbean
Heads of Government in Port-of-Spain last week.
Prime Minister Burnham of Guyana undoubtedly pro-
vided the impetus for the announcement at the end
of the meeting that the four countries would exer-
cise their "sovereign rights" to seek "the early
establishment of relations with Cuba whether eco-
nomic or diplomatic or both." Guyana will probably
establish relations with Cuba within a few months.
Jamaica, concerned with maintaining its third-
world image and protecting the 20,000 Jamaican
citizens in Cuba, may follow by opening a consulate
in Cuba. Jamaican commercial relations with Cuba
are now handled by the British, even though Havana
has a consulate in Kingston. There are no signif-
icant domestic pressures in Barbados or Trinidad
and Tobago to recognize or trade with the Castro
government, however, and they are likely to pro-
crastinate.
Havana has not yet reacted officially to the
announcement, but undoubtedly is pleased, even
though Burnham probably will prefer to maintain
relations on a non-resident basis. In any case,
this announcement will further erode the 04S sanc-
tions against Cuba.
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
25X1
Approved For Releas4:!
3 -
 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
SECRET
ITALY: Negotiations open this week for the
machine and metal workers' three-year contract,
the key to labor peace this fall.
Government leaders fear some echo of the "hot
autumn" of 1969 when labor violence centered on
this contract. The contract has set the pace for
wage and fringe benefits in other sectors of the
economy. The economy is only now showing signs of
recovery from a two-year slump, in part induced by
the contracts of 1969 that were highly beneficial
to labor and costly to industry.
Agreement on a major contract for chemical
workers on 10 October enhanced prospects for a mod-
erate settlement. However, the machine and metal
workers are demanding an estimated 20- to 40-per-
cent increase in fringe benefits and wages.
The government of Prime Minister Andreotti
will take part in the negotiations. Andreotti has
an unusually narrow parliamentary base, and a num-
ber of political leaders, both inside and outside
the government, are waiting for him to stumble.
A favorable outcome would help the government's
standin in scattered local elections next month.
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
SECRET
SENEGAL - PORTUGUESE GUINEA: The UN Security
Council will meet tomorrow to discuss Senegal's
latest charge of an incursion by Portuguese troops.
The essential facts of the case are not dis-
puted by either party. Three to five armored cars
entered Senegal from Portuguese Guinea on 12 Octo-
ber and attacked a military post in a border vil-
lage, resulting in two Senegalese deaths and one
wounded. In an unusual conciliatory move, General
Spinola, Lisbon's governor general and commander
in chief in Bissau, promptly issued an apology for
the incident, which was attributed to the "mental
disorders" of thePortuguese unit commander acting
against orders. The apology included an offer to
pay indemnities and a promise to court martial the
errant commander. Nevertheless, President Senghor
of Senegal is insisting on airing the incident in
the Security Council, a typical Senegalese proce-
dure for publicizing such border incidents and
bringing political pressure to bear on Lisbon.
Lisbon's contention that this raid was un-
authorized seems plausible. Although Portugal has
used actual and threatened military action to force
Senghor to restrict use of his territory by the
rebel movement that for nine years has been waging
a guerrilla war in Portuguese Guinea, the level of
recent rebel activity would not seem to justify so
strong a Portuguese reaction. Moreover, the timing
of the incident would have been particularly bad
for Lisbon. Rebel leader Amilcar Cabral has been
presenting his movement's case at the current ses-
sion of the UN General Assembly. Moreover, he
claimed that his movement will soon declare inde-
pendence and asked whether it would be admitted to
the UN. Concern over this develo ment could ex-
plain Lisbon's quick apology.
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
25X1
App ov or a ease - -
 Approved For Release 2003/ ;5I DP79T00975A023000050001-0
CCHILE: The shutdowns and strikes of protest
against the Allende government continue to spread,
but press reports of violence appear to be exagger-
ated. Many Chileans dependent on private business
or the professions probably have joined the protest
because they share the feeling that unless the pri-
vate sector stands up against the government, what
role it still retains will be whittled to nothing.
Most of the antigovernment activity seems uncoordi-
nated, however, making it less difficult for security
forces on full alert to maintain order thus far.
25X1
EAST GERMANY: Pankow took the occasion of its
ratification of the inter-German traffic treaty on
16 October to announce additional detente measures.
The parliament enacted a law that absolves from crim-
inal prosecution those East Germans who fled to West
Germany between 1961 and 1972. This law also strips
them of East German citizenship. By lifting Pankow's
legal claims against the refugees, the new law could
pave the way for additional thousands of refugees to
visit relatives in East Germany. Pankow has also
put into effect other travel privileges, including
the opportunity for East Germans to travel to West
Germany on urgent family matters. In addition, For-
eign Minister Winzer announced that the two Germanies
were ready to begin negotiations on an air traffic
agreement. Such actions are consistent with Pankow's
efforts to appear conciliatory on practical matters
in the West German pre-electoral period while holding
firm in negotiations on key political issues.
(continued)
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
25X1
 Approved For Release 2003/*RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
INTERNATIONAL OIL: The oil ministers of the
Arab Persian Gulf =states of OPEC have not yet ac-
cepted the terms of the tentative participation
agreement negotiated with the oil companies by Saudi
oil minister Yamani. 'Yamani probably will attempt
to work out the difficulties with the companies by
the next Gulf ministers' meeting on 25 October. The
two main features of the agreement are the rate of
participation, initially set at 25 percent and rising
to 51 percent in 1983, and the amount of compensa-
tion to be paid the companies for their assets.
Yamani had been concerned that Iraq might balk at
the compensation formula, which is based on a modi-
fied book value of assets and is considerably higher
than OPEC's original offer of net book. value. A
special meeting of all OPEC members has been sched-
uled for the day following the Gulf ministers' meet-
ing. F7 I
JAPAN: Tokyo has moved to guarantee the free
movement of US military vehicles within Japan. The
cabinet announced on 17 October that it will permit
the use of local roads for the transport of over-
sized and over-weight vehicles without prior applica-
tion procedures. Since early August, difficulties
in obtaining permits from local authorities in the
Tokyo area have impeded the transfer of military
equipment destined for Vietnam. Implementation of
the cabinet order will deprive the opposition par-
ties of the legal tool that they have used to hamper
US military support operations in Japan. Leftist
spokesmen have denounced the decision and will at-
tempt to intensify pressure on the government to
seek an over-all reduction of the US military pres-
ence.
(continued)
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release - -
 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
SECRET
JAPAN-US: Exports to the US last month reached
a record monthly high, boosting the bilateral trade
surplus to more than $2.9 billion through nine months
of this year. The surplus, which will undoubtedly
reach $4 billion by the end of this year, has been
the result of a steady rise in Japanese exports to
the US combined with a nearly constant level of im-
ports from the US. Japan's exports to the US are
up 19 percent for the first nine months of 1972 com-
pared with the same period last year, while imports
from the US have recovered from the disastrous last
half of 1971 but only to the level of late 1970 and
early 1971. Recent Japanese moves to reduce the
surplus will do little to reverse this trend this
year. In fact, increasing talk of another yen re-
valuation may encourage a speed-up in exports while
causing Japanese importers to postpone purchases.
18 Oct 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
 Approved For Release 2003/08/05 : CIA-RDP79T00975A023000050001-0
Secret
Secret
ppr'"-oved For Release - T00 A0230000500001-0