CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022800050001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 6, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 20, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
Secret
N2 042
20 September 1972
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No. 0226/72
20 September 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1)
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CAMBODIA: Lon Nol names new army chief of staff.
(Page 3
UGANDA: Assessment of the situation following the
defeat of rebel attacks. (Page 4)
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YUGOSLAVIA: Belgrade criticizes countries harboring
Croatian emigre terrorists. (Page 6)
FINLAND: Helsinki delays final action on recogni-
ti_on of East Germany and the EC pact. (Page 7)
NORWAY: Government acts to curb inflation (Page 8)
PAPUA NEW GUINEA: Tribal fighting flares up
Page 8)
BOLIVIA: La Paz likely to protest US antimony
sales (Page 9)
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(VIETNAM: The fighting in Quang Ngai Province
has spread to all five coastal districts. South
Vietnamese territorials clashed with enemy forces
near Binh Son district capital on 18 September,
and fresh Communist attacks were reported in Son
Tinh and Tu Nghia districts. South Vietnamese reg-
ulars have linked up with the territorial forces
defending Mo Duc, but the town apparently remains
isolated. Government forces in Sa Huynh are also
cut off and have been under sporadic attack.
There is additional evidence that the Quang
Ngai attacks are a part of a coordinated Communist
campaign in the lowlands. Heavy enemy mortar bar-
rages have hit government positions in Tam Quan and
Bong Son in neighboring Binh Dinh Province, and sub-
stantial ground action has been reported near Bong
Son and Phu My district capital, farther south.
In the Quang Tri City area, fighting and Com-
munist shellings have eased somewhat, but South Viet-
namese Marines continue to meet sharp resistance
from enemy pockets within the citadel. South Viet-
namese paratroopers skirmished sharply with enemy
forces some miles south, where the Communists may
be trying to mask the southward movement of men and
supplies.
Fighting in the southern provinces remains
centered in the delta provinces of Kien Giang,
Chuong Thien, and Kien Hoa. The Communists directed
mortar fire into the provincial capital of Kien Hoa
on 18 September and are continuing to harass govern-
ment outposts in that province as well as in neigh-
boring Dinh Tuon Province.
I I
20 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CAMBODIA: Lon :Nol may be seeking to derive
some polemical as well as military benefits from
his appointment of a new army chief of staff.
In what could be the first step toward a long
overdue reorganization of the high command, the
President has tapped former Military Region II com-
mander Major General Sosthene Fernandez to head the
Cambodian Army. The President is aware that Fernan-
dez is a close associate of Sirik Matak--one of Lon
Nol's chief critics. Lon Nol probably is also
aware that Matak's refusal to date to rejoin the
government is based in part on his insistence that
the President must reduce his excessive interference
in military matters. Given these factors, the ap-
pointment may have been intended in part as a con-
ciliatory gesture designed to induce Matak to ac-
cept Lon Nol's repeated offers of the vice-presi-
dency.
The energetic Fernandez, who is a trained mil-
itary professional with some sorely needed talent
for organization, has lost little time in exercising
his new authority. He has already indicated that he
will take the responsibility for high-level direc-
tion of combat operations, and he has emphasized
that all field commanders wanting to communicate
with Lon Nol must go through him.
Whether or not Lon Nol is indeed ready to sur-
render much of his ineffective personal control
over military matters, Fernandez' appointment has
already had some tonic effect on the military. Mem-
bers of the General Staff are enthusiastic about
the move, which may also sit well with many lower
ranking officers who recently have been grumbling
about the government's overall poor performance.
The appointment, moreover, should simultaneously
serve to restore public confidence in the army. if
only temporarily.
20 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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UGANDA: President Amin is likely to view his
army's success against the rebels as a further jus-
tification of his leadership.
His anger will probably be directed first
against foreigners in Uganda. His allegation of
British involvement in the fighting, in particular,
has called. into question the British presence.
Amin's advisers have already told him that all Brit-
ish technical advisers should be forced to leave,
and the government radio's charge that British spies
are living in Uganda paves the way for action against
individual British citizens. An intensification of
his xenophobic policies may lead Amin to focus on
the whole Western presence, including American.
Meanwhile, six of the thirteen Americans ar-
rested in recent days, including three Peace Corps
volunteers, remain in custody. The US ambassador,
who has had difficulty arranging consular access to
those held, has now talked with five of the Ameri-
cans and reports that they are being treated well.
The government has agreed to release into the cus-
tody of the embass an A erican newsman arrested
Sunday.
20 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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YUGOSLAVIA: Belgrade probably will increase
pressure on Western governments to halt the ter-
rorist activities of Croatian emigres.
In demarches to countries with large colonies
of Croatian emigres earlier this month, Belgrade
demanded that these governments stop anti-Yugoslav
activity. That protest followed more than a year
of heightened emigre terrorist attacks on Yugoslav
installations at home and abroad.
Two Yugoslav tourist agency offices in Aus-
tralia were bombed this week. In Spain, anonymous
callers have telephoned threats of new violence
unless authorities release the Croatian emigres
held in the recent hijacking of an airliner from
Sweden. The three hijackers and the six ransomed
convicts probably will be returned to Sweden.
After the hijacking, Yugoslav party executive
bureau secretary Stane Dolanc in a public address
attacked those countries which regard "themselves
as models of democracy" but watch terrorism against
Yugoslavia "with folded arms." He demanded that
they do something to prevent emigre violence and
warned that their failure to do so would result in
a sharp deterioration of relations. The Yugoslav
press, adding vitriolic comment of its own, gave
heavy play to Dolanc"s speech. The countries
Dolanc evidently had in mind include Sweden, Aus-
tria, Australia, West: German Canada, and the
US.
20 Sep 72
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FINLAND: Helsinki is delaying final action
on its recognition of East Germany and its free
trade agreement with the European Communities.
The Finns and East Germans initialed a treaty
for full diplomatic relations on 6 September. Bonn,
though restrained in its efforts to dissuade the
Finns, thus far has ignored Finnish offers to en-
gage in similar negotiations. The Finnish ambas-
sador in Washington speculated on 18 September that
Finland will not formally sign the treaty recognizing
East Germany until Bonn also is ready to establish
relations with Helsinki. The ambassador used as a
rationale Finland's desire not to have the two German
states represented at a Conference on European Se-
curity (CSCE) by diplomats of unequal rank. In fact,
Helsinki probably fears that its move toward recog-
nizing Pankow may already have jeopardized Finland's
chances for hosting the full-dress CSCE?
President Kekkonen's decision to stretch out
the signing and ratification of the EC free trade
agreement reflects in part Finnish uncertainty over
the outcome of EC referenda in Norway and Denmark.
Last week the government announced the formation of
an all-party committee to investigate the effects
of the treaty on the Finnish economy. This is a
stalling tactic, because the subject had been studied
thoroughly during the negotiations with Brussels.
The current timetable places signing and ratification
after the Norwegian and Danish referenda and after
municipal Finni h lections on 2 October.
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NORWAY: Facing intensifying inflationary pres-
sures, tHe-government has reimposed a price freeze
and indicated that it is considering a reduction of
the value-added tax on food products. The consumer
price index has risen almost eight percent since Au-
gust 1971. Recent price increases reflect in part
large wage hikes granted this spring and the catch-up
effect of prices after the lifting of an earlier
price freeze that was in effect from December 1970
through November 1971. It is unlikely, however,
that the latest freeze will be more effective than
the previous one, under which the cost of living
rose 6.2 percent. The failure to contain the wage-
price spiral, coupled with the possible defeat of
the government backed EC referendum next week,
threatens the future of the minority government of
Prime Minister Bratteli. F77 I
PAPUA NEW GUINEA: Inter-tribal feuding has
flare up in the highlands of central Papua New
Guinea, requiring the Australian administration to
bring in additional police forces from neighboring
districts. Few lives have been lost so far but
the situation is tense, and further fighting is
likely. Approximately half of the 3,700-man terri-
torial police force is now in the highlands, and
at least some of these mobile forces will probably
remain for some time. The highlands peoples are
far less advanced than those on the coast; mountain
tribal loyalties and hostilities outweigh emerging
nationalism. Despite the disunity and uneven de-
velopment indicated by the current tribal disorder
in Papua New Guinea, the Australian Government plans
to grant self government to the territory by 1
next year.
(continued)
20 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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BOLIVIA: The Banzer government is likely to
protest planned sales from US strategic metal stock-
piles. La Paz apparently is alarmed that US offer-
ings of antimony, scheduled over the next 18 months,
will depress the world price which has just begun
to rise after a sharp drop last year. An erroneous
rumor regarding imminent sales of tin from the US
stockpile provoked a diplomatic protest from the
Banzer government last week. Bolivia depends on
metal sales for more than three fourths of its ex-
port earnings, and the Banzer government's current
fiscal crisis would be further exacerbated by an
drop in world metal prices.
20 Sep 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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