CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022800010001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 9, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 15, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
State Department review completed N2 42
15 September 1972
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No. 0222/72
15 September 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1)
CAMBODIA: Government forces make progress in re-
opening Route 5. (Page 3)
LAOS: Vang Pao's troops again moving toward Plaine
des Jarres. (Page 5)
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: Assessment of prospects for
summit meeting. (Page 6)
ICELAND: Government adopts tougher tactics in "cod
w "
waar. (Page 8)
MOROCCO: Student strike will increase tensions.
Page 10)
SOUTH AFRICA: Right wing of ruling party gains
strength. (Page 11)
INDONESIA: Rice shortage (Page 12)
ZAMBIA-RHODESIA: Border tension (Page 12)
WEST GERMANY: Coal industry problems (Page 13)
INDONESIA-ROMANIA: Economic cooperation (Page 13)
SPAIN: University protests (Page 14)
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I Demilitarized Zone
::.QLJa gTri
Gulf of
Thailand
Marines repulse enemy
counterattacks
UAN
oUC
SOUTH VIETNAM
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,VIETNAM: South Vietnamese Marines turned back
several enemy counterattacks around the Quang Tri
City citadel on 13 September. Some 1,400 rounds of
Communist artillery and mortar fire hit Marine units
fighting just south of the fortress and near the
Thach Han River, where government forces reportedly
have occupied a major enemy transshipment point.
Farther south, sporadic fighting has been re-
ported near Fire Support Base Baldy in Quang Nam
Province and near Tien Phuoc district capital in
Quang Tin Province. The North Vietnamese apparently
have moved a joint armor and artillery regiment,
equipped with 130--mm. guns and PT-76 tanks, into
the Quang Tin coastal region to support enemy oper-
ations--another sign of the importance the Commu-
nists attach to increasing their presence in the
lowlands. The recent increase in the fighting in
nearby Quang Ngai Province also attests to such in-
tentions.
In the southern provinces, elements of the
North Vietnamese 7th Division have been detected
moving closer to the government's staging base for
Route 13 operations at Lai Khe, north of Saigon.
A flurry of enemy attacks in the lower delta ended
on 13 September with the loss of a significant num-
ber-of government outposts in Chuong Thien and An
Xuyen provinces. These actions probably were car-
ried out to mask the further infiltration of Commu-
nist main force units into the from
nearby Cambodia. F7 I
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Northwest Cambodia
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CAMBODIA: Government forces are making some
progress their attempt to reopen Route 5.
Two Cambodian Army task forces totaling about
19 battalions are now assigned to clear a 14-mile
stretch of the highway, which has been under Commu-
nist control for almost a month.. The larger task
force moving up the highway from Kompong Chhnang
was last reported about eight miles southeast of the
enemy-held town of Ponley. The other task force
is moving down the highway from Pursat and is some
three miles southwest of Ponley. Both government
columns have thus far met only light resistance
from the estimated four battalions of Cambodian
Communist troops in the area.
The rice situation in Phnom Penh should improve
markedly over the next several days. Daily airlifts
of some 100 tons from Saigon and of 35 tons from
Battambang have slowed the depletion of the capi-
tal's rice stocks, but there is still less than
eight days' supply on hand. With the expected ar-
rival on 17 September of almost 4,000 tons of rice
from Thailand and South Vietnam by the Mekong River
route, the Cambodian capital will have a two-week
supply. About three weeks' supply from the same
countries should arrive at Kompong Som port this
weekend to be trucked to Phnom Penh.
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? Government-held location
? Communist-held location
A Highpoint
Than`
Heu''p
Phou
They
Khang
kl_ Tha Tam~
Bleun ~` Kho
/ I'hou PN~SaiIrreguiars adv?nce
Xiend
Khouangvill
Irregular task. ford
`gLong Tiepg l
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LAOS: Government forces are again moving
slowly toward targets on the periphery of the Plaine
des Jarres.
Four fresh irregular battalions that arrived
earlier this week on the western Plaine are advanc-
ing toward Phou Sen, a strategic height overlooking
the southern Plaine, while another four-battalion
force has set out for Phou Keng, a mountain on the
Plaine's northern periphery. Three irregular bat-
talions that had been stalled for the past five
weeks near Khang Kho have also resumed their march
toward the southern tip of the Plaine.
Vang Pao is still having problems with the
discipline and morale of some of his tribal irreg-
ulars. A task force assigned the mission of at-
tacking Communist supply lines north of the Plaine
ignored orders and retreated to Bouam Long, their
starting point, after several days of rmishing
with Communist forces.
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The groundwork has been
laid for an EC summit in October that will register
modest advances toward monetary union but may only
mark time on community institutional development.
On the basis of agreements reached in Rome ear-
lier this week by the foreign and finance ministers
of the EC Ten, French officials believe that Paris'
"requirements" for a summit have been met. France's
partners generally think that they have been able
to undercut--without making important concessions--
French threats to postpone the summit. Chancellor
Brandt, in particular, has been eager to proceed in
view of the upcoming German elections.
The key agreement in Rome was to establish a
European Monetary Cooperation Fund. The fund, which
was foreseen in the original plan for economic and
monetary union, will now be set up ahead of sched-
ule. Its beginnings, however, will be modest. The
fund will provide short-term credit to alleviate
temporary financial difficulties. It will exclude--
contrary to French and Italian wishes--provisions
for longer term credits that Bonn feared could ag-
gravate inflationary problems. Limited pooling of
reserves will, nevertheless, be studied during the
rest of this year, along with a review of existing
techniques for maintaining EC currencies within a
narrow band.
Given the limited functions of the European
fund, West Germany's insistence that monetary in-
tegration should be accompanied by improved eco-
nomic-policy coordination may have been satisfied
for the time being by the agreement to study ways
to combat inflation. EC members agree that this
is the most pressing policy issue but agreement on
measures acceptable to all may still be difficult
to reach.
(continued)
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The issue of a political secretariat--and
French insistence that it be located in Paris--has
been shelved, at least temporarily. France's part-
ners reportedly are also willing to forgo pressing
at the summit such institutional questions as uni-
versal suffrage for the European Parliament. The
Dutch may not meekly accept this, however, since
the Hague considers itself committed to achieving
"democratic responsibility" within the community.
Although the basic agreements for the summit
thus seem to have been struck, further hard bargain-
ing is still foreseen on a number of substantive
and institutional matters raised in a report for
the ministers prepared by representatives of the
Ten in Brussels. In any case, it appears that the
summit will avoid provocative positions on EC re-
lations with the US and the USSR, or on interna-
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ICELAND: Reykjavik's tougher tactics in the
"cod war'r threaten to make resumption of negotia-
tions with London considerably more difficult.
On 12 September, the Icelandic Coast Guard flag
ship Aegir severed the cables of two British trawl-
ers fishing inside the new 50-mile limit. This ac-
tion was more serious than the initial incident of
5 September, when the Aegir cut only one cable on
an unmarked British trawler. In that case Reykjavik
called the British vessel a "pirate" because it
lacked proper international markings. Although the
trawler lost its catch, it managed to save its ex-
pensive nets.
Foreign Minister Agustsson subsequently told
the protesting UK Ambassador that British fishermen
could expect similar treatment if they continued to
fish inside the limits. Despite Prime Minister
Johannesson's claim that instructions to the coast
guard have not changed since 1 September, when he
said that violators would be cataloged now and
punished later, the recent incidents clearly indi-
cate a harsher attitude. Contrary to Iceland's
claims that the British fishermen cannot land sig-
nificant catches because of the harassment, the cur-
rent escalation may reflect just the opposite sit-
uation and thus call for more stringent measures by
Iceland.
There is disagreement within the Icelandic Gov-
ernment over positions to be taken in future nego-
tiations with the UK on an interim solution to the
fishing issue. Foreign Minister Agustsson has told
a US diplomat that his government is prepared 1 -1
Settle the dispute. How-
ever, Reykjavik would be hesitant to settle for
less than the favorable terms recently reached with
Belgium. The government's ability to compromise
is probably being undercut by Fisheries Minister
Josefsson, a Communist who insists on increasing
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Icelandic demands. Icelandic political leaders are
reluctant to reveal weakness in the dispute, and
most ministers probably share Josefsson's views.
Although Britain's attitude also may harden if
provocations continue, London has so far refrained
from permitting British naval vessels to enter the
new 50-mile limit. Nevertheless, at least one
frigate is standing by near Iceland and if further
coast guard - trawler incidents occur, London might
order it to "protect" the fishermen.
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MOROCCO: A student strike planned for next
week wileighten tensions.
Members of the country's largest student
union--an organization loosely linked with the
leftist labor and political opposition--are push-
ing for a boycott of exams to protest the arrest
of two of their leaders. The arrests were made
earlier this month as a warning to student mili-
tants that the government will not tolerate any
disruption of the new school year scheduled to
open early in November. Authorities are report-
edly planning to round up the organization's
leaders in the next few days, and many students,
who want to complete their exams, are resisting
the strike calls.
Moroccan students, however, have become in-
creasingly politicized in the last several years,
causing serious problems for the regime. Despite
stern security measures and punitive action, the
government has had little success in preventing
previous boycotts. The recent crackdown will in-
crease the potential for trouble in the coming
months, and the regime may be reluctant to call
on the divided and suspect armed forces to back
up civil authorities.
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SOUTH AFRICA: Interior Minister Mulder's
election this week as Transvaal provincial party
chairman underscores the growing dominance of the
right-wing of the ruling National Party.
Over the last; several months, Prime Minister
Vorster and other Afrikaner leaders have closed
ranks to the right. In parliamentary by-elections
and provincial elections earlier this year, for
example, the National Party conducted an emotionally
charged campaign, playing on the traditional ani-
mosities between English and Afrikaan speaking
whites. The National Party's shift was re-emphasized
in late July with the resignation from the cabinet
of Theo Gerdener, an outspoken advocate of better
treatment of non-whites, and his replacement with
Mulder.
Mulder's election to the key Transvaal party
post puts him ahead of other potential successors
to Prime Minister Vorster. Mulder, who is 47
years old, popular, and staunchly conservative,
beat out his two main rivals in the prime minis-
terial sweepstakes, M. C. Botha, the acknowledged
party ideologue, and Dr. Andries Treurnicht, the
head of the secret. and influential Broederbond
society.
Prime Minister Vorster, who is only 57, does
not plan to step down soon. But unless he is able
to arrest the National Party's decline at the polls
by the next general election in 1975, his position
could become precarious. Mulder faces his own
test much sooner, with three by-elections coming
up in the Transvaal over the next few months. The
National Party is expected to win at least two, if
not all three, of these seats. Observers will be
watching closely, however, to see how the Nation-
alists conduct the campaigns and whether the rival
United Party continues to m ke inroads into the
National Party's strength.
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INDONESIA: Indonesia has joined the growing
list o countries in the Far East that are short of
rice. Because of an excessively severe and extended
dry season, the shortage will probably worsen by the
end of the year. Djakarta is increasingly concerned
that rising prices will lead to political unrest in
the urban areas. Indonesia's usual source of imports,
Thailand, is hard pressed for rice this year and is
not likely to be in a position to help. Japan, the
only potential major supplier remaining in the Far
East, is being asked to provide the necessary sup-
plies. Tokyo has indicated that although its domes-
tic stocks are ample it may not legally export more
rice this year. Several years ago, Japan enacted a
law that limits its rice exports to 400,000 tons a
year to avoid complaints from Thailand and Burma
that Japanese rice exports undercut their markets.
ZAMBIA-RHODESIA: President Kaunda reportedly
ordered a precautionary military alert on 13 Sep-
tember in response to apparent Rhodesian counter-
insurgency operations along the border. Zambian
air units and probably army troops are conducting
military "exercises," and the reserves have been
called up. Since early August, Rhodesian guer-
rillas based in Zambia have carried out at least
two cross-border raids into Rhodesia, their first
in over two years. Although the Rhodesians have
warned the Zambians of possible reprisals if guer-
rilla activity continues, they probably would prefer
to avoid the unfavorable publicity and international
Pressure that a militar strike would provoke.
(continued)
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WEST GERMANY: Pressures to protect the de-
clining domestic coal industry may lead to reduced
imports of US coal. The German Mine and Energy
Workers Union convention later this month is ex-
pected to press again for a higher national priority
for the declining domestic coal industry, including
tighter import restrictions. Although the federal
and state governments are sympathetic to the needs
of the industry, EC regulations preclude restriction
of imports from member countries. A large share of
coal imports traditionally has come from the United
Kingdom which, upon. joining the EC next January,
will not be subject. to any coal import quotas. Any
increase in UK exports probably will be at the ex-
pense of non-EC countries, including the US which
in 1971 exported to West Germany coal valued at more
than $50 million. Although West Germany supports a
general liberation of trade, the deteriorating situa-
tion in the.coal industry may strengthen Bonn's case
for maintaining coal import quotas under a s ecial
GATT dispensation for ailing industries.
INDONESIA-ROMANIA: Djakarta and Bucharest
have cons u e an economic cooperation agreement,
Indonesia's first with a Communist country since
the attempted Communist coup in 1965. This follows
by about one year Romania's agreement to reschedule
Indonesia's debt repayments. The two countries now
will study possible Romanian assistance in mining,.
forestry, and industry. The agreement apparently
calls for joint financing of projects, possibly
under some $30 million of credits remaining under
a 1961 agreement. A protocol to that agreement
provided for the use of Romanian credits to finance
machinery and equipment deliveries for loint ven-
tures.
(continued)
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SPAIN: Top administrators at several universi-
ties have resigned in protest over recent government
moves to tighten control. Their action was triggered
by resignations, allegedly forced by the government,
of several prominent rectors who are likely to be
replaced by strict disciplinarians. Moreover, uni-
versity officials deeply resent the tough government
decrees of late July that impose rigid disciplinary
controls and grant greater authority to the Ministry
of Education. Madrid University faculty members may
petition Franco to modify the hard line and are con-
sidering a general strike in the universities. Stu-
dent activists are reportedly planning protests
primarily aimed at ousting the education minister.
The regime may be somewhat embarrassed by the wave
of resignations, especially since it includes some
prestigious professors identified as government sup-
porters. Nevertheless, the government is unlikely
to be deterred from its efforts to prevent a recur-
rence of the d' ers of the last academic year.
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