CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022500080002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 9, 2003
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: August 11, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
i2r1
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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11 August 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHINA: A major party leadership meeting may take
place this fall. (Page 3)
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CHILE: Allende is alarmed at the disunity in the
coal tion. (Page 9)
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PORTUGAL: Conservatives force cabinet changes
(Page 12)
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CHINA: Preparations may be under way to con-
vene a major party leadership meeting to settle im-
portant personnel and policy issues stemming from
the Lin Piao incident.
Ia plenary
session ot the party central committee will be held
this fall to adopt a new party constitution--the
present constitution names Lin as vice-chairman of
the party and Mao's successor--and to fill high-
level government and military posts. Top positions
in the military hierarchy have been vacant since
the crisis of last September and personnel appoint-
ments in the government apparatus have not yet been
completed. Presumably, the party meeting would also
take up the question of restaffing the decimated
Politburo and of naming replacements for purged and
deceased Central Committee members.
Taken together, these issues seem important
enough to require a national party congress, which
includes delegates from all over the country and
not just members of the Central Committee. Although
there are tentative indications that the selection
of delegates may be under way in some areas, it
would be difficult to complete the process in time
to hold a congress this fall. It is possible, how-
ever, that a full session of the Central Committee
will pave the way for a later party congress.
It is likely that a major party meeting would
be followed by a National. People's Congress (NPC).
The NPC--in theory the highest organ of state gov-
ernment but actually a forum for ratifying party
decisions--would probably be convened to put its
stamp of approval on the policies agreed upon at
the party meeting. Several reports indicate that
delegates to an NPC are now being chosen, and that
it is to open before the end of the year.
Progress on a host of issues has been virtually
stalemated by the regime's apparent inability to
reach a consensus on personnel policy, the future
political role of the army, and the many problems
related to the succession question. In recent weeks,
11 Aug 72
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however, following a series of leadership meetings
which ended in late June, the regime has shown signs
of growing confidence. The full-scale celebration
of Army Day--the first major holiday since Lin's
downfall to be observed in customary fashion--the
regime's explanation to the outside world of the
events surrounding the leadership crisis last Sep-
tember, and the rehabilitation of a number of con-
troversial figures all suggest that the leadership
is moving more confidently. It seems safe to as-
sume that all contentious issues were not resolved
in June, however, and that the strains of the past
year will persist into meetings that may occur this
fall and winter.
11 Aug 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
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CHILE: President Allende is alarmed at the
growing disunity within his governing coalition.
The immediate cause for concern is an incident
at the Lo Hermida shantytown outside Santiago, where
police killed a resident who was resisting the entry
of the law officers. This seemingly minor incident
has assumed great importance because Allende has re-
peatedly promised that under his regime no worker
would be killed for political activity. Allende
spent several hours talking with spokesmen for the
residents and visited the slum. Two top civilian
police officials have been suspended from their
posts, and the policemen involved may be prosecuted
for murder.
Allende's reaction to this incident has widened
the already deep split within the Popular Unity coa-
lition. Contrary to their usual stance, the Commu-
nists support the police, claiming the government
must be firm against political extremists. Social-
ists and minor parties are split on the issue, with
the more radical Socialists backing Allende on re-
straining the police despite their doubts about the
president's future intentions. Allende has tried
to restore unity by blaming violence on right-wing
provocations, and he is clandestinely aiding at-
tempts by the moderate Socialist faction to regain
formal control of the party.
Underlying the political disunity is a deep
concern for the state of the economy.
the Communists be ieve that
e economy may be in worse condition than portrayed
by the opposition press, and they fear that the
problem will become more severe by November. Some
consideration reportedly is being given by Allende
to an appeal to the International Monetary Fund for
a $200-million loan; it is doubtful he could get
the full amount. The Communists claim to be the
only members of the coalition with the skill and
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willingness to tighten their belts, and are pushing
for more control over economic decisions. If the
Communists are able to increase their participation
in formulating economic policy, it could add to the
resentment of the radical members of the coalition
toward the Communists' more moderate stance, and
lead to further disunity.
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PORTUGAL: Prime Minister Caetano is being
forced to drop progressive technocrats in a forth-
coming cabinet shake-up,
This turnabout reportedly is the
result of Caetano's earlier low-key efforts to
seek the presidency. His bid angered military lead-
ers, who declared that the office was reserved for
one of their own and insisted that Admiral Thomaz
be re-elected. Caetano acquiesced in this. As a
further reminder of their power, the conservatives
evidently decided to force the ouster of most of
the progressives brought into the cabinet by Caetano.
With their departure, Caetano's efforts to modernize
the economy will be slowed considerably, and his
freedom to act in other fields may be reduced.
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