CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022300110001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 19, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
N2 041
19 July 1972
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No. 0172/72
19 July 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
SOUTH VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1)
EGYPT-USSR: Some hedging on extent of Soviet with-
drawal. (Page 2)
USSR: Another major grain purchase. (Page 4)
SPAIN: New succession law. (Page 5)
INDIA: Extremist Communist party nears collapse.
Page 6)
CHILE: Port congestion (Page 7)
COLOMBIA: Diplomat's murder (Page 7)
ROMANIA: Party conference (Page 8)
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C SOUTH VIETNAM: South Vietnamese troops con-
tinue to advance slowly in Quang Tri.
Airborne troops inside Quang Tri City are re-
ported to be edging closer to the citadel, a Com-
munist-held strongpoint in the city's northern
section, but Communist resistance is stiff. On
the city's northern outskirts, other airborne
troops pushed back a tank-led enemy infantry force
after an eight-hour battle early on 18 July. Other
government units east of the city report continued
enemy shelling but only light ground contact.
Scattered action has been reported elsewhere.
Hue was hit again by rockets early on 18 Juiyj
seven civilians were killed in the attack.
Kontum Province, Communist forces northwest of the
provincial capital are believed to be elements of
a North Vietnamese unit, which, according-to a
prisoner, is responsible for holding back govern-
ment units while other Communist forces withdraw.
19 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EGYPT-USSR: The extent of the withdrawal of
Soviet personnel from Egypt that Cairo is demanding
remains in doubt.
Several hours after President Sadat publicly
insisted that Soviet military personnel leave Egypt,
the semi-official Cairo daily al-Abram appeared to
be hedging on the extent of Cairo's demand. Al-Ahram
said that Soviets engaged in training the Egyptian
armed forces are not affected by the president's
decision, nor are Egyptian-Soviet relations and the
bilateral treaty of friendship and cooperation be-
tween the two countries. Al-Ahram continued that
Egypt is eager for the provisions of the treaty to
remain in force, because in essence they are a
"faithful expression" of the great cooperation be-
tween the two countries.
In his speech before the Arab Socialist Union's
Central Committee as summarized by the Egyptian news
agency, however, Sadat announced he had made three
important decisions. As of Monday he had terminated
the services of Soviet military advisers and experts
in the country and had replaced them with Egyptians.
He had also ordered the Egyptian military to take
over exclusive control of all installations and
equipment established since the June 1967 war, ap-
parently an allusion to important Soviet facilities
in Alexandria, Mersa Matruh and Aswan. Finally,
Sadat said his action was taken in order to facili-
tate consultations on a "new stage" in the Soviet
Egyptian relationship, although he insisted that
there was no intention of altering the basic friend-
ship and cooperation between the two countries, to
which he repeatedly paid tribute.
Sadat's theme--which follows that of a current
series of articles by al-Ahram editor Muhammad
Haykal--was that Egypt requires complete freedom of
action in dealing with Israel. Sadat alluded to
disagreements with Moscow on the supply and control)
19 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Cof Soviet weapons and said he could not accept re-
strictions on Egypt's ability to make its own polit-
ical decisions. He observed that Egypt had no de-
sire that the "friendly advisers" should fight Egypt's
battle, and he implied that by taking over equipment
and missions formerly controlled by the Soviets he
would free the Soviet Union from authority and re-
sponsibility for Egypt's future actions.
The number of Soviet military personnel cur-
rently in Egypt is estimated at about 13,000. Some
1,000 are with the Soviet naval air squadron; 6,500
in Soviet air and air defense units;.1,000 in the
Foxbat reconnaissance detachment, and 4,500 advisers
to Egyptian air, army and naval units. About 2,000
personnel associated with SA-3 battalions are be-
lieved to have left Egypt in late 197
Although the Soviets in the past two years have
become accustomed to Sadat's surprise moves, the
far-reaching nature of these latest steps may have
caught them off guard. The communique winding up
Prime Minister Sidgi's recent visit to Moscow, for
example, carried no hint of the new direction that
Sadat had chosen. TASS, moreover, routinely an-
nounced that Sadat would be chairing yesterday's
meeting of the Arab Socialist Union's Central Com-
mittee, adding only that the Egyptian press attached
"great significance" to it. Presumably the Soviets
would not have carried even this brief announcement
if fully apprised of the Egyptian president's speech.
There has been no reaction thus far from the
Soviets, who may be waiting until they can be cer-
tain which forces must leave Egypt. There must be
some confusion in Moscow on this score, particularly
in view of the contradictory and incomplete infor
mation available-in the Egyptian press.
19 Jul 7 2 Central Intelligence Bulletin 3
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USSR: Announcement of another major Soviet
purchase of grain, which would double imports in
the next year,,is imminent.
Moscow reportedly has purchased for delivery
during the next 12 months 1.5 million metric tons
of Canadian wheat and 300-400,000 tons of barley.
This is in addition to the 3.5 million tons of
wheat contracted for last February. This purchase
comes on the heels of a $750-million contract to
buy US grain over the next three years. Unconfirmed
reports state that four million tons of wheat and
five million tons of corn worth $500 million have
already been bought under the US pact for delivery
by mid-1973.
During the next 12 months the USSR should be-
come a large net importer of grains for the first
time since the disastrous harvests of 1963 and
1965. Imports may total 15 million tons. In the
past 12 months the Soviets probably balanced their
grain trade, importing about eight million tons
while exporting a similar amount to Eastern Europe
and other client states. Although there will be
increased demands on the USSR for exports in coming
months because of crop damage in Eastern Europe and
new commitments to countries such as Bangladesh and
Chile, these exports are expected to be much less
than imports. The net imports will be used mainly
to improve and increase meat production and thus
better the Soviet diet.
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SPAIN: The succession law decreed yesterday
by Franco eases the pressure on him to designate a
premier.
The new law provides that, if Franco--who is
both chief of state and premier--dies or is in-
capacitated before naming a premier, the vice
premier will automatically move up to premier and
may remain in office beyond the ten-day limit
prescribed in previous law. This ensures that
there will be no gap in the exercise of the pre-
miership when Franco goes. The new law also
allows Prince Juan Carlos, designated in 1969
to succeed Franco as chief of state, time to
make a decision about who would be the premier.
The law reiterates that Juan Carlos will be
sworn in as king within eight days after Franco
goes. In addition, it limits the powers of the
Regency Council to act for the king during the in-
terim period.
The present vice premier is Franco's confidant,
Admiral Carrero Blanco, who relieves Franco of many
of the daily responsibilities of the premiership.
As premier, the conservative Carrero could be ex-
pected to carry on present policies. By strength-
ening the vice premier's succession prospects,
Franco dealt a blow to those Spaniards who were
hoping for a liberalization of the regime through
the appointment soon of someone other than Carrero
as premier.
19 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INDIA: India's most extreme Communist party
is on the verge of collapse after a life span of
only three years.
On 16 July, Charu Mazumdar, the only top leader
of the Communist Party of India Marxist/Leninist
(CPML) still at large, was arrested in Calcutta.
The 56-year-old revolutionary gained notoriety as
an organizer of the infamous peasant revolt in the
Naxalbari area of West Bengal in 1967. The Naxalite
movement that emerged from the revolt was headed
primarily by militants disenchanted with the Com-
munist Party/Marxist. Mazumdar went on to become
a founding father of the extremist CPML in 1969.
Disavowing a constitutional approach in favor of
armed revolution, the CPML was the only formally
organized party in the declining terrorist Naxalite
movement.
Mazumdar leaves, at most, a few hundred hard-
core followers in West Bengal. Although there may
be a few potential leaders among the small number
of capable young Naxalites still at large, it is
unclear whether anyone will emerge to replace
Mazumdar and his dead or jailed colleagues. More-
over, Indian security forces have become increas-
ingly successful in controlling the activities of
this group of self-styled Maoists.
The threat of violent revolution by extreme
leftists, which troubled Indian authorities a few
years ago, has almost disappeared, at least for
the present. Radical fringe groups remain, how-
ever, in West Bengal and Bihar, and to a lesser
extent in the Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala.
Barring economic collapse or political turmoil,
their efforts over the next several years will
probably be limited to debates over strategy, in-
terspersed with occasional attacks on "class ene-
mies" and rival left-wing groups.
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CHILE: Port congestion is hampering the un-
loading of grains and aggravating Chile's food
shortages. Santiago plans to import about 1.25
million tons of wheat, corn, and rice this year,
almost 70 percent above the 1971 level, but port
facilities are inadequate to handle such large
shipments. Ships arriving with wheat have had to
wait as long as 17 days before getting berthing
space to unload, and the three-week-old railway
strike is severely limiting distribution. Mili-
tary personnel are now in charge of running the
railways, but below normal capacity.-F--
COLOMBIA: The murder of the first secretary
of the Swedish Embassy in Bogota on Monday may
have been a guerrilla operation. The government'
campaign against National Liberation Army (ELN)
insurgents has led to scores of arrests, includin
that of Swedish journalist Karl Staf, a Marxist ~~JJ
with broad guerrilla contacts. The killing of
the diplomat may have resulted from the failure
of a kidnap attempt designed to secure a hostage
to effect the release of Staf or the ELN prisoner
Ironically, Staf was reportedly scheduled for
deportation on the day of the murder. Whatever
the motivation of the murder, the Colombian Gov-
ernment will probably react strongly to head off
the possibilit that the guerrillas might open an
urban front.
(continued)
19 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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ROMANIA: A. national party conference, the
second sin Nicolae Ceausescu became party chie
in 1965, opens today in Bucharest. Domestic and
external aspects of the economy, and tailoring o
the educational system to meet more closely the
needs of the country, will be the central points
of discussion. This three-day conference, like.
its predecessor in 1967, probably will call for
some organizational streamlining. Although some
important personnel shifts in party and state
agencies are anticipated, Ceausescu is expected
l
to remain in firm control.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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