CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022300010001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 3, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 7, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
DIA and DOS review(s)
completed.
Secret
NO 41
7 July 1972
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No. 0162/72
7 July 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CAMBODIA: Joint operation with South Vietnamese to
reopen highway to Saigon. (Page 1)
WEST GERMANY - FRANCE: Brandt-Pompidou talks leave
fall EC summit in doubt. (Page 2)
CUBA-USSR: Assessment of Castro's visit. (Page 4)
CHILE: Christian Democrats score victory over Al-
lende. (Page 5)
ARGENTINA: Differences within junta undermine sup-
port for Lanusse. (Page 6)
USSR-LIBYA: Soviets will participate in economic
development projects. (Page 8).
YUGOSLAVIA: Economic performance improves. (Page 9)
EL SALVADOR - HONDURAS: Border incidents jeopardize
peace talks. (Page 10)
VIETNAM: Situation report (Page 11)
USSR: Venus probe (Page 11)
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CAMBODIA: Government forces backed by South
Vietnamese units are trying to reopen a stretch of
Route 1, the main highway between Phnom Penh and
Saigon.
A total of 14 Cambodian Army battalions and one
armored squadron moved eastward on 4 July from their
Mekong River base at Neak Luong in a three-pronged
drive toward the Communist-controlled town of Kom-
pong Trabek. At the same time, a regiment of South
Vietnamese Rangers supported by heavy artillery and
an armored squadron began advancing northward from
the South Vietnam border toward Kompong Trabek.
At last report, lead elements of the Cambodian
task force had moved to within a few miles of the
town without meeting any opposition. The operation
is Phnom Penh's most ambitious military undertaking
since the beginning of the rainy season, as well as
the first sizable operation conducted with the South
Vietnamese in over a year.
The Communists seized Kompong Trabek and a
score of other government positions along Route 1
in late April. Shortly thereafter, the Cambodians'
initial effort to retake the town collapsed at the
first sign of Communist resistance. although no
Vietnamese Communist main force units are presently
known to be operating in the immediate vicinity of
the town, the Communists may shift some units from
the South Vietnam delta or from nearby Svay Rieng
Province to the Kompong Trabek region in order to
protect their supply and infiltration lines there.;
In Takeo Province, the Communists are contin-
uing to thwart government efforts to relieve an
embattled government battalion at Angtassom, some
40 miles south of Phnom Penh. Five Cambodian bat-
talions from nearby Takeo City remain pinned down
by Communist troops a few miles east of Angtassom,
which reportedly was hit by a heavy enemy shelling
attack on 6 July. Thus far, however, Cambodian
casualties have been moderate.
Central Intelligence Bulletin 1
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)WEST GERMANY - FRANCE: The meeting between
Chancellor Brandt and President Pompidou in Bonn
this week did little to advance preparations for
a European Communities summit this fall.
Although both sides agreed that the summit of
the six present and four incoming EC members sched-
uled for October should not be canceled, the Germans
remained unwilling to underwrite the still vague
French demands in the monetary field--a key French
condition for holding the summit. Paris' "cata-
logue" of international monetary issues on which it
contends the community must work out common posi-
tions includes the role of gold and special drawing
rights, the problem of sterling and dollar balances,
and dollar convertibility. Pompidou repeatedly em-
phasized that the EC's common agricultural policy
requires fixed exchange rates within the community.
Brandt wants the fall summit, but he was de-
termined not to be put in the role of supplicant.
The Germans believe that Paris' power in a community
of ten would be less than heretofore. West German
State Secretary Frank told the US Embassy that
Britain's support, in particular, had encouraged
Bonn to adopt a rigid position.
France has publicly claimed "positive results"
from the Bonn meeting, but the French may in fact
be disappointed. German officials indicated annoy-
ance with Pompidou's ostentatious attempts to in-
duce concessions through contacts with the German
opposition. On Pompidou's instructions, Foreign
Minister Schumann had a private chat with Christian
Democratic Union leader Barzel, during which the re-
portedly "embarrassed" Barzel was lectured on fa-
miliar French positions on a European security con-
ference and force reductions.
Foreign ministers of the present and prospec-
tive EC members will meet on 19 July to try to come
to grips with the summit agenda. Prospects are tha
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the underlying differences between France and its
partners will not be overcome, but that this would
lead to a postponement rather than a cancellation
of the summit.
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CUBA-USSR: Fidel Castro concluded his visit
on 6 July with the claim that Cuban-Soviet rela-
tions have reached their highest level.
His ten-day stay in the Soviet Union was marked
by a show of cordiality and friendship as both sides
obviously sought to make the Cuban Premier's first
visit to the USSR in eight years successful. De-
spite the atmosphere, no significant new agreements
were announced.
The final communique noted that the talks were
held "in an atmosphere of deep mutual understanding
and unity of viewpoints," and marked the beginning
of a new and important stage in Soviet-Cuban rela-
tions. While Moscow endorsed the Cuban demand for
the "unconditional removal of the Guantanamo Naval
Base," the communique went no further in substance
than past statements on this issue. It was some-
what stronger in tone, however. Castro praised
Moscow's general foreign policy and expressed grat-
itude for continuing Soviet aid.
Despite Castro's effusive praise of the Soviets,
it is unlikely that Moscow was completely successful
in assuring the Cuban leader that Havana's security
and interests were not undermined by President
Nixon's visit to the USSR. While the communique
carried joint statements on a variety of interna-
tional issues, it omitted any direct mention of
the summit meeting. The communique noted only that
the Soviets "reported" to the Cubans on the summit
contacts.
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CHILE: The Christian Democrats appear to have
won a significant political victory over the Allende
government on the issue of their constitutional re-
form measure defining the government's role in the
national economy.
Negotiations on a compromise between the ver-
sion passed by Congress and the changes Allende
made in it broke down last week, and the Christian
Democrats walked out. Faced with the prospect of
an adverse vote in the Senate, Allende withdrew his
changes. Allende's decision avoids a possible "con-
stitutional crisis," and hints of a last-minute deal.
Allende now can sign the original measure or submit
other objections. Whatever he does, his Popular
Unity government has suffered a major political re-
versal.
The Christian Democrats also joined the Na-
tional Party move to impeach Interior Minister Del
Canto. The minister is charged with smuggling, vio-
lation of press freedom, and failing to protect
property rights. The Chamber of Deputies approved
the charges on Wednesday, thereby forcing suspension
of Del Canto from his duties pending Senate action.
Del Canto, an undistinguished member of the Social-
ist Party, is not personally important to Allende,
but he may be moved to another ministerial post.
The stiffening of the Christian Democrats,
coming after a period of attempted negotiation, sug-
gests that the party has concluded, at least for the
time being, that more forceful op osition will bring
greater gains than conciliation.
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ARGENTINA: Differences over negotiations with
Juan Peron and over the air force role in the gov-
ernment appear to be undermining military support
for President Lanusse.
Rumors of Lanusse's resignation or an impending
coup were touched off on 4 July when Air Force Com-
mander in Chief General Rey publicly criticized the
President on these two issues. Apparently reacting
to reports that Lanusse plans to continue as presi-
dent beyond 1 January 1973, Rey publicly called on
Lanusse to transfer power to the air force on that
date as was agreed when the military junta seized
power in March 1971.
General Rey also claimed that the military
high command had not authorized the recently re-
vealed secret talks between Peron and Lanusse's
private emissary in April 1971. Rey told the press
that only the Argentine ambassador to Spain had
been authorized to discuss the future political
role of Peronism. General Lopez Aufranc, the pow-
erful III Corps commander in Cordoba, is also reported
to have claimed that he had had no knowledge of the
conversation. Lanusse released the text of the
talks between his right-hand man, Colonel Cornicelli,
and the former dictator to thwart speculation about
a secret agreement, but Rey's criticism could stir
the strong anti-Peron passions in all three services.
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The desire of most top officers to end six
years of direct military rule has made it difficult
for opponents of Lanusse's electoral plan to find
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a suitable leader for their cause. Nevertheless,
apprehensions over continuing economic problems and
the rising level of civil violence, combined with
the fear of a Peronist return to power and the dis-
satisfaction of the air force, could generate a se-
rious challenge to Lanusse's leadership.
7 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 7
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USSR-LIBYA: Despite Premier Qadhafi's con-
tinuing criticism of the USSR, Libya has concluded
its first agreement for Soviet participation in
economic development projects.
The USSR will construct two distillation plants,
probably for the petroleum industry, and will prepare
a survey on the feasibility of integrating the power
grids of Libya and Egypt. A Soviet delegation has
spent the past two weeks in Libya investigating po-
tential projects.
The new agreement marks the first concrete re-
sult of discussions that have been held intermit-
tently over the past two years. Although economic
and technical cooperation agreements were signed in
March 1970 and in March 1972, no commitments have
been made for specific projects, and, until now,
only a few advisers have been provided for Libya's
petroleum industry. Libya may have become more
receptive to Soviet offers of assistance since the
USSR agreed in May to become Libya's first buyer
of oil from the nationalized BP concession. As-
sistance to be provided under the new agreement may
be partially offset by Libyan deliveries of nation-
alized oil.
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YUGOSLAVIA: Economic performance thus far
this year is markedly better than in 1971, but
basic problems still cloud long-run prospects.
A dramatic turnabout in the trade picture has
caused some officials to predict a current account
surplus this year, compared with the $320-million
deficit registered in 1971. The government has ef-
fectively restricted credits for imports, and fed-
eral subsidies have induced enterprises to export
more. As a result, export earnings now are cover-
ing 75 percent of imports, compared with only 50
percent last year. Moreover, earnings from tourism
and remittances from workers abroad have continued
to increase.
The trade situation may not be so favorable,
however, during the second half of 1972 and in
early 1973. Large imports of wheat, corn, and
vegetable oil will be necessary to supplement do-
mestic supplies, which will be reduced because of
the drought last spring.
On the domestic front, the stabilization cam-
paign has been less successful. Both the money
supply and personal incomes have continued to in-
crease rapidly. Although most prices still are
frozen, an 8-9 percent rise--much larger than
planned--is anticipated as controls are relaxed.
Neither the government's stabilization program
nor the latest round of decentralizing reforms has
removed the basic causes of Yugoslavia's economic
instability. The "boom-bust" pattern that charac-
terized the 1960s probably will continue in the
1970s.
7 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EL SALVADOR - HONDURAS: Recent border inci-
dents do not augur well for a resumption of peace
talks.
14,
A member of the Salvadoran general staff, Colo- 1
nel Oliva, told the US defense attache' that during
the past week there have been numerous provocations
along the entire border. Most involved indiscrim-
inate weapons firing by Honduran forces, but some
were of a more serious nature. Hondurans burned
a Salvadoran farm, wounded one civilian, and ar-
rested several others. Colonel Oliva has telephoned
his Honduran counterpart, who promises an investiga-
tion. Oliva contends, however, that the incidents
have been deliberately ordered by the Honduran high
command. ---~
It is possible that the Hondurans, having re-
jected the draft peace treaty worked out by the two
foreign ministers, are attempting to pressure El
Salvador into accepting a counter-offer. It is
also possible that elements in Honduras are stir-
ring up trouble on the border to weaken the posi-
tion of President Cruz. Whatever the cause, Salva-
dorans are in no mood to be bullied despite the
olive branch cautiously extended by President Molina
during his recent inaugural address.
7 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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C VIETNAM: Government forces have begun consol-
idating their ositions near Quang Tri City, but
there are indications that the Communists are ready-
ing counterattacks farther south. The main ele-
ments of the South Vietnamese M ne and Airborne
brigades are a few miles south and east of the pro-
vincial capital. Fighting in the area has been gen-
erally light during the past 24 hours with most of
the enemy action directed against the western flank
of the government force. Artillery attacks against
Hue and government positions west of the city have
picked up. Yesterday over 100 artillery rounds
struck Hue and government bases south and west of
town were heavily shelled. Action elsewhere in the
country generally was light. Some heavy fighting
continues in the northern Mekong Delta as govern-
ment troops try to interdict Communist supplies and
men infiltrating into an enemy ,base camp in western
Dinh Tuong Province.
USSR: The Soviets' unmanned space probe,
Venus 8, should reach the vicinity of Venus in about
two weeks. TASS announced soon after the launch on
27 March that Venus 8 would make a slow descent
through the planet's atmosphere, taking scientific
measurements. The probe probably will also attempt
a soft landing on the surface, a feat first known
to have been accomplished by Venus 7 in December
1970. High temperatures and pressures of the Venu-
sian atmosphere destroyed Venus 7 as well as the
three other Soviet probes to reach the planet. Each
probe was able to transmit for only a short time
before it ceased operating. The Soviets may have
modified the Venus 8 robe to enable it to survive
for a longer eriod. I __j
7 Jul 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 11
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