CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A022100070001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 1, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 16, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
Secret
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No. 0144/72
16 June 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1)
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CYPRUS-GREECE: Makarios' cabinet reshuffle should
end his recent skirmishing with Athens. (Page 3)
ITALY: Setback to prospects for a center coalition
government. (Page 5)
FINLAND: Political parties maneuver for position
in future coalition government. (Page 7)
ORGANIZATION OF AFRICAN UNITY: Assessment of recent
conference. (Page 9)
AFGHANISTAN: Improvement in Prime minister's pros-
pects for remaining in office. (Page 10)
USSR-US: Draft Soviet treaty on air piracy (Page 11)
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,C VIETNAM: The northern Mekong Delta region re-
mains the scene of the heaviest fighting.
Sustained enemy ground and shelling attacks
are occurring in Tuyen Binh District of Kien Tuong
Province, and some action continues around the
provincial capital at Moc Hoa. The attacks, carried
out by units of the Communist 5th Division, have
caused about 90 percent of Moc Hoa's population to
flee the town. Enemy prisoners taken during the
fighting claim that the 5th Division's mission is
to overrun the entire province and to open the way
for more enemy troops to enter the delta.
Such a plan may account for the sharp resist-
ance encountered by South Vietnamese Rangers op-
erating in nearby Cambodia. Earlier this week, a
ranger battalion suffered heavy losses while break-
ing out of a two-day enemy encirclement near the
Kien Tuong - Kien Phong provincial border area.
The North Vietnamese apparently have conducted
a recent review of their war policy. A Soviet
"commentator" article broadcast by Moscow Radio on
14 June refers to a "new analysis of the situation"
by the Viet Cong and asserts that "the situation
has also recently been examined by the Democratic
Republic of Vietnam." Several North Vietnamese
articles have mentioned assessments of the "new
situation" in Vietnam and have noted that North
Vietnam's Council of Ministers recently convened
to discuss various policy problems. Most of Hanoi's
top politburo members have been out of public view
for the last two weeks. 25X1
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CYPRUS-GREECE: President Makarios' new cabinet
announce yyeester ay should end his most-recent and
serious round of skirmishing with Athens. Mutual
antipathy and suspicion will continue to cloud re-
lations between the two governments, however.
In the last cabinet reshuffle in July 1970,
Makarios added new faces to his administration in
an attempt to silence criticism that his ten-year-
old cabinet had become corrupt. By this move,
Makarios was also able to get rid of a few strong-
minded cabinet officials who were not malleable.
The 1970 cabinet changes increased Makarios'
power, and Greece, already disenchanted with the
way things were going on the island, objected to
the Archbishop's increasing control. Greek objec-
tions peaked in February when Athens demanded that
Makarios broaden his cabinet, presumably to elimin-
ate some of these yes-men. The cabinet announced
ostensibly has been approved by Greek officials,
but most of the new men are close associates of
Makarios and are unlikely to cause him any trouble.
The Greeks will probably go along with Makarios'
changes because they are preoccupied with getting
the island's intercommunal talks moving again; the
talks are now in recess after the formal openina nn
Despite these gestures, Athens' failure to
fill its ambassadorial post on the island suggests
continued Greek unhappiness with the Archbishop.
Nonetheless, Makarios seems to believe that he will
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enjoy a respite from Greek pressure and is turning
his attention to the problem of General Grivas, who
still favors Cypriot union with Greece. Grivas'
failure to act has caused many supporters to desert
him, but there remain a few gunmen close to the gen-
eral who could still move against Makarios. The
Archbishop will probably try to reduce this threat
now that the cabinet has been reshuffled.
16 Jun 72
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ITALY: The division within the Christian Demo-
cratic-leadership over the formation of a center
government sets back the prospects for this coali-
tion.
On 14 June, the party directorate voted 17-12
in favor of forming a four-party center coalition
with the Liberals; this vote was not positive enough.
The other two partners in the prospective alliance,
the Republicans and Social Democrats, have publicly
stated that they would not support such a combina-
tion without Christian Democrat unanimity. They
recognize the futility of forming a center coalition
with a bare majority in parliament unless the Chris-
tian Democrats are in full support of such an arrange-
ment.
Nevertheless, Premier-designate Giulio Andreotti
probably will go through the motions of attempting
to form a center coalition as he has with other com-
binations. Although these negotiations may not pro-
duce a coalition, they at least will demonstrate
that a temporary all - Christian Democrat minority
government is the only solution available in the
near term.
Some Italian politicians have been testy about
allowing the Christian Democrats to govern alone as
they did in the pre-electoral period. The major
parties, however, need time to set new policy guide-
lines. In the interim, the business of government
can be handled under an all - Christian Democrat
administration, particularly during parliament's
summer adjournment.
After the Socialists and Christian Democrats
hold party congresses in October, there may be a
serious attempt to reconstitute the center-left
formula that has ruled Italy for most of the past
decade. The Socialist central committee met last
week and expressed the party's readiness to rejoin
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a center-left government. The question of the role
the Communists should be allowed in the legislature--
an issue which has divided the Socialists and Chris-
tian Democrats in the past--was not addressed and
probably will not be covered until the party con-
gress.
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FINLAND: Recent party congresses by four of
Finland's eight major political parties, including
the governing Social Democrats, reflected maneuver-
ing for position in a future coalition government.
The Finnish Social Democratic Party (FSDP)
congress produced the most significant results.
The party center, with left-wing assistance, con-
solidated its dominant position at the expense of
the relatively conservative old guard. Party chair-
man Paasio and party secretary Sorsa, prime minis-
ter and foreign minister in Finland's narrow minor-
ity government, were returned to office in an en-
dorsement of their "center-left" leadership. The
right wing of the party lost ground when Kaarlo
Pitsinki was ousted as chairman of the party coun-
cil, and conservative FSDP vice chairman Lindblom
failed in
a
bid to succeed him. Pitsinki, in par-
ticular,
was
unacceptable to party moderates and
leftists
as
a symbol of adamant opposition to co-
operation
with the Communists. While the congress
rejected
a recent Finnish Communist Party (FCP)
offer to increase cooperation on common policy pro-
grams and at the local organization level, it did
not exclude common participation in a coalition
government nor cooperation on specific objectives.
The Social Democrats are clearly striving to pre-
serve all options for broadening their present
minority into an FSDP-dominated coalition.
The Center, Swedish Peoples', and Liberal par-
ties have also concluded congresses and returned
incumbent chairmen to office. All were members in
the previous left-center coalition and remain likely
candidates for the next. The Swedish Peoples Party,
at its congress, muted its right wing in an obvious
effort to maintain its eligibility. Early forma-
tion of a majority government still appears unlikely,
however, despite the Liberal Party chairman's pub-
lic expression of confidence that a coalition would
be formed before July. Rather, the parties are
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still maneuvering for independent advantage in local
elections this fall. Moreover, the communists will
not join a coalition until Finland's bid for an ar-
rangement with the European Communities, which they
oppose, is settled, presumably this summer.
16 Jun 72 Central .Intelligence Bulletin
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ORGANIZATION OF AFRICAN UNITY: The ninth
annual OAU heads-of-state conference", which ended
in Rabat yesterday, was highlighted by the strong-
est resolution yet adopted by the OAU on the Middle
East.
The resolution, which appeared to go beyond
last year's strongly pro-Arab resolution, avoided
an outright condemnation of Tel Aviv, but attacked
"Israel's negative and obstructionist attitude"
and called for its immediate withdrawal from "all
occupied Arab territories." The presence of a
large number of Muslim African leaders, including
Morocco's King Hassan, Mauritanian President Ould
Daddah, Algerian President Boumediene, and Tunisian
President Bourguiba may have been a factor in the
adoption of the strong resolution. The resolution
gave no indication that the OAU intends to resume
efforts to break the Middle East deadlock with
something similar to the mission of four African
heads of-state last year.
The summit also elected a new secretary-gen-
eral, Nzo Ekhah-Nghaky, who has been the Cameroon-
ian labor minister since 1965 and is reported to be
a capable administrator. He replaces Diallo Telli,
a Guinean, who held the post for eight years but
had become increasingly unpopular with African lead-
ers.
Other summit resolutions provided for increased
aid to African liberation groups, condemned racial
policies in South Africa, Rhodesia, and Portugal's
African territories, and attacked the US for pur-
chases of Rhodesian chrome. A proposal for a re-
gional defense system was sent to a committee for
further study. The summit delegates apparently did
not take a position on the Law of the Sea issue,
but they may have referred the matter to a commit-
tee in the hope of preparing a common African stand
for next year's international conference.
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AFGHANISTAN: Prime Minister Zahir's chances
for staying in office have improved.
A week ago, it appeared that Zahir lacked the
support of the King and that his resignation in the
face of parliamentary criticism might be imminent.
Since then, Prince Abdul Wali, the King's powerful
son-in-law and cousin, has been telling influential
politicians that Zahir should remain as prime minis-
ter.
Zahir helped his own cause by a forceful. and
responsive performance when he appeared before the
lower house for questioning on 13 June. At-a sim-
ilar session the week before, he dodged questions
and. was generally uncooperative.
The royal family, presumably including the
King, may have decided that an attempt to form a
new government at this time would only complicate
the country's problems and that it might be better
to wait until after elections next year. Neverthe-
less, given parliament's propensity for quarreling
with any prime minister, Zahir could easily find
himself in trouble again, and he has no guarantee
of continued royal support, especially if he is
still unable to deal effectively with the many prob-
lems facing his government.
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NOTE
USSR-US: The Soviet Foreign Ministry is
draft-
ing a proposal for a US-USSR treaty to combat
air
hijacking. Claiming that such a treaty would
en-
hance the favorable post-summit atmosphere and
serve
as an example to other countries, the official
in
charge of this project implied that the thrust
of
the Soviet proposal will be toward mandatory extra-
dition of hijackers. The official reiterated stand-
ard Soviet opposition to authorizing a "supra-gov-
ernmental" body to enforce agreements that combat
hijacking. The Soviets, however, are supporting a
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UN Security Council consensus statement on air piracy
and have indicated a willingness to consider other
US initiatives.
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The United States Intelligence Board has ap-
proved the following national intelligence estimate:
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Secret
Secret
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