CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A021900050001-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 25, 2003
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 16, 1972
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence bulletin
Secret
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No. 0117/72
16 May 1972
Central Intelligence Bulletin
WEST GERMANY: The way seems cleared for ratification
of the Eastern treaties. (Page 1)
SUDAN: President Numayri has clashed with the chief
of staff of the armed forces. (Page 2)
MALAGASY REPUBLIC: President adopts conciliatory
gestures to curb antigovernment violence. (Page 3)
TURKEY: Government crisis (Page 4)
IRAQ: Political developments (Page 4)
INDONESIA-JAPAN: Oil sale (Page 5)
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WEST GERMANY: The decision yesterday by the
executive committee of the opposition Christian
Democrats to support the all-Bundestag resolution
on foreign policy presumably clears the way for
Bundestag ratification of the Eastern treaties by
a substantial majority in parliament tomorrow.
The committee voted 27 to 1 in favor of the
ten-point resolution, with one abstention and one
absentee. Party chairman Barzel succeeded in dis-
pelling the anxieties of die-hard opponents that
Moscow might refuse to acknowledge the resolution
or challenge those passages that reaffirm the pro-
visional status of territorial borders and the
national goal of self-determination. The party's
representatives in parliament and those of its
more conservative affiliate, the Christian Social
Union, are meeting today and probably will endorse
the executive directive. Nevertheless, individual
deputies, particularly members of the Christian
Social Union from Bavaria, are expected to vote
against the treaties tomorrow.
The decision also presages passage of the
treaties with Christian Democratic support in the
Bundesrat on 19 May. Approval by the upper house
of parliament would enable President Heinemann to
sign the treaty documents, thereby completing the
ratification process.
16 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SUDAN: President Numayri's clash with the
chief of staff of the armed forces may slow the
pace of his efforts to build a nationalist-oriented
government.
During a meeting with ranking officers last
week, Numayri suspended Major General Muhammad
Abd-al-Qadir after a rancorous exchange growing
out of Numayri's criticism of armed forces' com-
manders for unspecified irregularities. The sus-
pension of Abd-al-Qadir, a close and trusted ad-
viser of Numayri, has not yet been announced, and
the door has been left open for his reinstatement.
Without army support, Numayri could not have
moved boldly in the past year to reorient Sudan
toward domestic and African concerns and to dis-
engage from pan-Arab involvement. Numayri's
dressing down of his army commanders and the sus-
pension of the chief of staff have introduced at
least a temporary strain in his relations with
the army. He may now be impeded in his efforts
to restructure his government along nationalist
lines and to make further headway in implementing
the agreement with the southern rebels.
Before Numayri's confrontation with his com-
manders, it had been anticipated that a major re-
shuffle of the cabinet was in the offing. Among
those who were said to be on their way out were
two pro-Egyptian former members of the disbanded
Revolutionary Command Council who had opposed
Sudan's gradual drift away from the Arab world.
Numayri's quarrel with senior nationalist army of-
ficers sympathetic to the chief of staff, however,
risks alienating the indispensable instruments of
his Sudan-first policies.
16 May 72
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C MALAGASY REPUBLIC: President Tsiranana has
adopted conciliatory gestures to end three days of
violent antigovernment protests, but sporadic clashes
continue between students and security forces.
Tsiranana has ordered the release of students
imprisoned on 12 May for their leadership of a three-
week-old student strike called to protest government
educational policies. He also has agreed to meet a
delegation of student leaders to hear their grievances
and reportedly is considering a revision of coopera-
tion agreements with France, one of the students'
major demands. The president's actions came as a
result of yesterday's mass march on the presidential
palace in which students were joined for the first
time by large numbers of workers and civil servants.
The demonstration was accompanied by a general strike
that caused the closing of most business firms and
many government offices in the capital of Tananarive.
On 14 May, following Saturday's violence, Tsiranana
replaced the minister of culture, in charge of edu-
cational affairs, in response to the students' de-
mand that he appoint a minister sympathetic to their
views.
The students and their supporters currently are
directing their anger against members of the Repub-
lican Security Forces (FRS), the elite paramilitary
force responsible for the killing of over 25 persons
during weekend rioting. Students have reportedly
killed several FRS troopers, and the FRS continue
to fire on demonstrators. In contrast, there is in-
creasing evidence that many members of the National
Gendarmerie support the students and are refusing to
take strong action against the protesters.
The continuing violence may cause Tsiranana to
withdraw his offer of negotiations. Government
spokesmen have warned students that violence would
not be tolerated, but the demonstrators show no signs
of dispersing. Tsiranana is likely to balk at ex-
pected student demands that ste s be taken to curb
the FRS. F
16 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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TURKEY: President Sunay's mandate to Defense
Minister and Acting Prime Minister Melen to form a
new government, following his rejection Saturday of
Suat Urguplu's proposed "national unity" cabinet,
reflects the regime's frustration in trying to re-
solve the current government crisis. The military
leaders are determined to get on with the reform
program, but paradoxically are unwilling to accept
a politically oriented cabinet that could help speed
the reforms through parliament. Melen, who appar-
ently has already sufficiently demonstrated his non-
partisan outlook in his capacity as interim prime
minister, may well draw on the already existing care-
taker cabinet, thereby improving the prospect for
quickly forming a government and getting neces-
sary military approval.
IRAQ: The Baathist regime in Baghdad has ap-
pointed two Communists to minor cabinet posts.
These token appointments developed out of Saddam
Tikriti's drive for a "national charter" government
of "progressive" political forces. As provided in
the draft, the charter must be accepted by the Kurd-
ish rebel minority. The Kurds, however, have so
far refused, despite pressure from the government
and the Soviet Union. They are skeptical that the
government will ever grant them the limited polit-
ical autonomy prescribed in the accord of March 1970
that ended the fighting in the Kurdish areas in the
north. Whatever the fate of the charter, the Baath-
ists intend to retain full political control of the
country, and overt political activity by the Commu-
nists and others continue to be proscribed.
(continued)
16 May 72
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INDONESIA-JAPAN: Djakarta has agreed to sell
Japan 350 million barrels of low sulfur oil over the
next ten years. The agreement, concluded during the
visit of President Suharto to Tokyo last week, will
bring Indonesia an estimated $100 million in addi-
tional revenues annually. With the new agreement,
Indonesia will hold its present position as a sup-
plier of some 13 percent of Japan's oil requirements.
In addition to paying for the oil, Tokyo will extend
a $207-million soft-term loan for the development of
Indonesia's oil industry. The loan will supplement
$185 million in aid pledged for this year by Japan
through the Intergovernmental Group for Indonesia.
16 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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Secret
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